证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 煤价低位运行，板块回调吸引力增强 【2025.2.10-2025.2.16】 行业评级：中性 核心观点 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 分析师：刘永芳 发布日期：2025.2.17 煤炭行情走势图 港口库存持续增加，动力煤价格下跌。本周，陕蒙 442 家煤矿 开工率超 78%，煤炭供应基本恢复正常，煤价在供给宽松需求 疲情况下继续下跌，在煤价倒挂和当现货价格跌破长协上限值 时，倒逼煤企采取保价行动，预计后续随着下游企业全面复工 复产和煤电企业盈利平衡点调整，煤价有望得到支撑。 焦煤价格弱稳运行，库存继续降低。本周，炼焦煤价格低位震 荡运行，海外炼焦煤价格小幅上涨，但港口到岸价下跌，出现 倒挂现象，挤压焦煤进口贸易商的盈利空间，进口量受到压缩； 焦刚企业的库存连续走低，未来随着基建等需求的增加，价格 有望止跌企稳。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 大同证券研究中心 权益市场以上涨为主，煤炭行业跌幅居前。本周，权益市场以 上涨为主，《哪吒》影视剧总票房持续攀升，以及 Deepseek 不断被接入相关公司的消息频出，TMT 涨幅居 ...

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 煤焦钢库存高位去化，煤炭躁动行情或可期 【2025.2.5-2025.2.9】 行业评级：中性 核心观点 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 1 发布日期：2025.2.10 煤炭行情走势图 节后陆续复工复产，动力煤价格平稳运行。本周，各大煤企基 本处在安全培训阶段，复工复产进度较为缓慢，尚未大规模正 常产销，供给变化不大。煤价在供给变化不大需求受寒潮影响 支撑下平稳运行，预计后续随着下游企业复工复产全面推进， 煤价将窄幅波动。 焦煤价格弱稳运行，库存开始高位去化。本周，虽然焦炭第八 轮提降如期而至，但受到基建等需求支撑，煤焦钢库存高位去 化，未来价格有望止跌企稳。 权益市场涨多跌少，煤炭行业跌幅居前。本周，权益市场涨多 跌少，受国运级创新 Deepseek 横空出世，带动相关联板块集 体上涨，市场成交近破 2 万亿元， ...

证券研究报告——市场日报 市场再度收红 两市量能近 2 万亿 证券研究报告——市场日报 2025.02.07 （预计发布时间：2025.02.08） 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址: http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 行情回顾 周五（2 月 7 日），三大指数早盘震荡走 高，午盘冲高后高位震荡，尾盘小幅上行，最 终收红。截至收盘，上证指数（+1.01%）收报 3303.67 点，深证成指（+1.75%）收报 10576.00 点，创业板指（+2.53%）收报 2174.35 点。两 市量能近 2 万亿（数据来源：Wind）。申万Ⅰ 级行业多数上涨，仅银行下跌，计算机、综合、 电力设备领涨。 风险提示 国际市场突发不利消息引发市场扰动 证券研究报告——市场日报 指数表现 数据来源：Wind 大同证券研究中心 市场表现 当日要闻 证监会发布《关于资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"的实施意见》。为深入贯彻落实党的二 十届三中全会、中央金融工 ...

Market Overview - On February 6, 2025, the three major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.27% to 3270.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.26% to 10393.63 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.80% to 2120.75 points [1][3] - The total trading volume exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity [1] Sector Performance - All major sectors showed positive performance, with the top three sectors being Automotive (+4.00%), Electronics (+3.90%), and Computer (+3.45%) [5] - The banking sector had minimal movement, with a slight increase of 0.01% [5] Market Sentiment - A total of 4,797 stocks rose, accounting for 87.28% of the market, while only 469 stocks declined [4] - The market exhibited a strong bullish sentiment, as evidenced by the significant number of stocks hitting the daily limit up [4]

证券研究报告——市场日报 三大指数开年分化 假期中美关税生变 证券研究报告——市场日报 2025.02.05 （预计发布时间：2025.02.06） 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址: http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 行情回顾 风险提示 国际市场突发不利消息引发市场扰动 当日要闻 假期影响市场的消息：美国宣布对中国商品加征 10%关税 中方出手反制。国务院关税税则委 员会 4 日发布公告称，2025 年 2 月 1 日，美国政府宣布以芬太尼等问题为由对所有中国输美 商品加征 10%关税。美方单边加征关税的做法严重违反世界贸易组织规则，不仅无益于解决 自身问题，也对中美正常经贸合作造成破坏。（消息来源：东方财富） 神秘买家终止收购！西南证券：出售资产协议失效并终止。2 月 4 日下午，西南证券发布公 告称，其全资子公司西证国际投资与买方黄文轩签订的买卖协议于 1 月 28 日失效并立即终 止生效。西证国际投资将没收买方已支付的 27 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is operating steadily, with a focus on dividend investment opportunities. The report suggests that while the coal supply is tightening due to increased safety inspections and the holiday season, the demand remains weak, primarily driven by just-in-time needs. The report anticipates stable low prices for electricity coal during the Spring Festival, supported by cold weather demand [5][44] - The report highlights that the equity market is experiencing mixed performance, with the coal sector showing significant declines. Despite this, there is a strong interest in dividend assets from medium to long-term funds, indicating a potential for investment in high-quality coal stocks with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities [5][44] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed mixed results, with the coal sector experiencing a notable decline of 1.93%, underperforming against the indices. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.54% [6][8] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices continue to decline due to weak supply and demand. The report notes that as the Spring Festival approaches, supply is tightening, but demand remains weak, leading to a downward trend in prices. The report expects electricity coal prices to stabilize at low levels during the holiday period [9][10][14] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are also under pressure, with the report indicating that the seventh round of price reductions for coke has been implemented. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to high inventory levels and low consumption, although some speculative buying may provide slight support to prices [28][29] Shipping Situation - The shipping market is experiencing a decline in both volume and price. The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports has decreased, and freight rates have continued to fall, reflecting weak demand expectations [37] Industry News - The report mentions significant developments in the coal industry, including the approval of a coal mine expansion project in Shanxi and plans for the construction of 130 intelligent coal mines in the province. These initiatives are expected to enhance production capacity and efficiency in the sector [40][41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is operating steadily, with a focus on dividend investment opportunities. The report suggests that while the coal supply is tightening due to safety inspections and the holiday season, demand remains weak, primarily driven by just-in-time needs. The report anticipates stable low prices for electricity coal during the holiday period, supported by cold weather [5][44] - The report highlights that the equity market is experiencing mixed performance, with the coal sector showing significant declines. Despite this, there is a strong interest in dividend assets from long-term funds, indicating a potential for investment in high-quality coal stocks with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities [5][44] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed mixed results, with the coal sector experiencing a notable decline of 1.93% during the week, underperforming the indices. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.54% [6][8] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices continued to decline due to weak supply and demand. The report notes that as the holiday approaches, supply is tightening, but demand remains weak, with electric coal demand supported by cold weather. The report expects stable low prices for electricity coal during the holiday [9][10][14] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are under pressure due to high inventory and low consumption. The report indicates that the market sentiment is pessimistic, but some speculative demand may provide slight support for prices. The report anticipates that prices will remain stable through the holiday period [28][29] Shipping Situation - The report indicates a decline in both shipping volume and prices, with the average number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports decreasing. Freight rates have also dropped across major shipping routes, reflecting weak demand expectations [37][39] Industry News - The report mentions significant developments in the coal industry, including the approval of a coal mine expansion project in Shanxi and plans for the construction of 130 intelligent coal mines in 2025. These initiatives are expected to enhance production capacity and efficiency in the sector [40][41]

Policy Impact - The "Implementation Plan for Promoting Medium and Long-term Funds into the Market" aims to stabilize the stock market by increasing the scale and extending the cycle of medium and long-term funds entering the market[1] - The policy is expected to bring incremental capital to the market, supporting stable development and boosting investor confidence in 2025[1] Insurance Funds - Large state-owned insurance companies are expected to invest 30% of their new premiums annually into A-shares starting from 2025, exceeding market expectations[1] - The implementation of a long-term performance evaluation mechanism for state-owned insurance companies will strengthen the role of insurance funds as a major force in medium and long-term investments[1] Social Security and Pension Funds - The policy aims to increase the proportion of stock investments by the National Social Security Fund and expand the scale of entrusted investments by basic pension funds[1] - A long-term performance evaluation mechanism of over five years for the National Social Security Fund and over three years for basic pension funds will be established[1] Enterprise Annuity - The policy encourages the expansion of enterprise annuity coverage and supports differentiated investment strategies by enterprise annuity fund managers[1] - A long-term performance evaluation mechanism of over three years for enterprise annuity funds will be introduced[1] Public and Private Funds - The policy emphasizes improving the mechanism for public funds to increase the proportion of equity investments and enhance investor returns[2] - The introduction of operational rules for private securities investment funds will expand product types and investment strategies[2] Investment Ecosystem - The policy encourages listed companies to increase share repurchases and implement multiple dividend distributions annually[2] - It allows various funds, including public funds, insurance funds, and pension funds, to participate in listed companies' private placements as strategic investors[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy effects falling short of expectations and increased volatility in the capital market[3]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 2% while the Shanghai Composite Index only saw a slight increase [1] - As of the market close on January 20, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% to 3244.38 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.94% to 10256.40 points, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.81% to 2004.73 points [1][3] - The total trading volume exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating active market participation [1] Sector Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industry indices, most sectors experienced gains, with notable increases in the power equipment sector (+2.16%), textile and apparel (+1.58%), and social services (+1.25%) [5] - Conversely, the coal sector (-1.26%), oil and petrochemicals (-1.02%), and construction materials (-0.68%) were among the worst performers [5] Market Sentiment - A total of 3,613 stocks rose, while 1,587 stocks declined, indicating a positive market sentiment with an upward ratio of 65.80% [4] - The market's overall trading volume was 991.07 million shares, with a total transaction value of 11,829.28 billion yuan [4]

Core Viewpoints - Dividend strategy aligns with the essence of value investing and can traverse bull and bear markets over the long term [1][4] - The dividend strategy index has shown strong performance, with the China Securities Dividend Index achieving a 14.85% positive return over the past five years, while the broader market index declined by 4.54% [4] - The dividend strategy is characterized by high dividend yield, high ROE, and low PB, providing a safety margin in valuations while ensuring stable profits and a willingness to distribute high dividends [7] Summary by Sections 1. Dividend Strategy and Value Investing - The dividend strategy index has consistently outperformed the broader market indices, with the S&P High Dividend Aristocrats Index yielding 358% since 2000 compared to 305% for the S&P 500 [4] - The essence of the dividend strategy lies in its focus on high dividend yield, which reflects a company's profitability and governance structure, making it a suitable choice for value investors [6][7] 2. Investment Outlook for 2025 - As of January 14, 2025, the China Securities Dividend Index has a dividend yield of 5.96%, placing it in the 82.5th percentile of historical performance, while its PB ratio of 0.76 indicates a reasonable undervaluation [8][9] - The shift in investment methodology from growth-oriented strategies to dividend-focused value investing is driven by a high-quality development phase, where investors seek stable and sustainable long-term returns [10] - Government policies, such as the "New National Nine Articles," encourage companies to increase dividend payouts, with nearly 1,000 companies disclosing dividends in 2024, significantly higher than previous years [12][13] 3. Comparative Performance of Dividend Indices - Long-term performance analysis shows that various dividend indices, including the China Securities Dividend Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Dividend Index, have consistently outperformed the CSI 300 Index [16]