Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious recommendation for the company [1] Core Views - Shanxi Coking Coal is one of the most influential coking coal producers in China, backed by the Shanxi Coking Coal Group, which is controlled by the Shanxi Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. The company is focusing on resource integration and eliminating outdated production capacity to strengthen its leading position in the coking coal industry [3][11] - The company is actively expanding its business in electricity and coke, forming a diversified industrial structure that includes coal, electricity, coke, chemicals, and materials. Despite a decline in sales volume due to market conditions, the company maintains a stable cash flow from its electricity and heat products [4][25] Company Overview - Shanxi Coking Coal has a total market capitalization of 369.01 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 306.1 billion yuan. The company has a total share capital of 5.677 billion shares, with a 52-week stock price range of 5.97 to 11.43 yuan [3][4] - The company has 17 mines with a coal resource reserve of 6.53 billion tons, with 16 mines currently in production and one under construction [23][24] Business Operations - The company reported a revenue of 452.90 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 18.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 31.08 billion yuan, down 54.10% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to a reversal in the coal market supply-demand dynamics, leading to a significant drop in coal prices [37][45] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 31.38%, which, while lower than previous years, remains competitive compared to peers in the industry [4][39] Future Outlook - The supply of coking coal is expected to continue to decline, with domestic production decreasing and imports remaining stable. The demand side is currently weak, but government efforts to stabilize the real estate market may lead to a recovery in demand [5][64] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 424.52 billion yuan, 432.59 billion yuan, and 449.42 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.46, 0.58, and 0.64 yuan per share [5]

Group 1: Equity Market Insights - A-shares showed an upward trend this week, driven by stable macroeconomic data and short-term concepts like "Soochow Super," 5G, and innovative pharmaceuticals[2] - The technology sector is expected to become a mainline market trend, with significant performance driven by internal risk clearance and external positive news[3] - Consumer sectors are experiencing rotation, with pharmaceuticals and consumer electronics benefiting from hot topics, while dividend sectors may face upward limitations due to international volatility[3][15] Group 2: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is experiencing high volatility, with short-term bonds favored due to their liquidity, which helps mitigate short-term investment risks[4][36] - Current domestic liquidity remains loose, supporting short-term prosperity in the bond market despite increasing uncertainties[4][36] - A recommendation for bond allocation suggests favoring short-term bonds for their flexibility in responding to potential market changes[6][36] Group 3: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market is rebounding from low levels, with metals and precious metals showing strong performance, influenced by global recovery expectations[6][45] - Gold remains in a high volatility state, with short-term demand expected to decline as U.S. tariff policies stabilize, but long-term demand may still be supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties[6][45] - Overall, other commodity categories are underperforming, with a prevailing trend of low volatility expected in the commodity market[6][45]

Market Overview - The equity market indices collectively rebounded last week, with the ChiNext Index leading at a gain of 2.32%[5] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 1.65 basis points, indicating a slight widening of the yield spread[5] - The TMT sector saw a collective rebound, with notable gains in telecommunications (5.27%), non-ferrous metals (3.74%), and electronics (3.60%) sectors[5] Fund Performance - The equity fund index rose by 1.94%, while the secondary bond fund index increased by 0.38%[14] - The short-term bond fund index saw a modest increase of 0.05%, reflecting a generally loose funding environment[14] Investment Strategies - Event-driven strategies include focusing on funds related to the upcoming Apple WWDC, with recommended funds such as Bosera Digital Economy A (012082) and Invesco Great Wall Vision Growth C (014473) due to anticipated innovations[16] - Consumer sector funds are highlighted following recent government initiatives to boost domestic consumption, with recommended funds including Huaxia Consumer Selection C (017720) and Harvest New Consumption A (001044)[17] Asset Allocation - A balanced bottom warehouse and barbell strategy is recommended, focusing on dividend and technology sectors[18] - High dividend assets are emphasized due to the low interest rate environment, with the 10-year government bond yield potentially entering a "1%+" era[18] Risk Analysis - The central bank's recent operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 671.7 billion yuan, maintaining a loose liquidity environment[25] - The May PMI data remains below the growth line at 49.5%, indicating ongoing economic challenges[25] Key Fund Recommendations - Recommended funds for stable returns include Nord Short Bond A (005350) and Guotai Junan Li'an Medium and Short Bond A (016947), focusing on short-duration bonds[30] - For those seeking higher returns, consider funds like Anxin New Value A (003026) and Southern Glory A (002015), which are positioned to benefit from equity market opportunities[30]

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 核心观点 发布日期：2025.6.9 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2024-06-14 2024-07-14 2024-08-14 2024-09-14 2024-10-14 2024-11-14 2024-12-14 2025-01-14 2025-02-14 2025-03-14 2025-04-14 2025-05-14 沪深300 煤炭指数 大同证券研究中心 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 邮箱： 港口库存持续释放，焦炭开启第三轮提降 【2025.6.2-2025.6.8】 行业评级：中性 liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 格稳中有降，尤其是产地煤价继续反弹受，随着高温天气增多， 需求边际改善，价格有望止跌企稳。 ◆ 焦煤价格稳中有降，焦钢总库存持续走低。本周，炼焦煤在基 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that port inventories continue to decline, while coking coal has entered its third round of price reductions. The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to weak demand and supply pressures [6][11][26] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed a general upward trend, with the coal sector underperforming the index. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13% to 3385.36 points, while the coal sector fell by 0.50% to 2565.75 points [7][11] Thermal Coal - Port inventories are decreasing, and production coal prices are facing resistance in rebounding. The average daily consumption of coal at power plants in southern regions has decreased to 1.693 million tons, down 182,000 tons week-on-week [11][12][19] - The report notes that while high temperatures may increase electricity demand, the overall supply-demand relationship remains loose, leading to weak price stability [12][19] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are stable but declining, with the market experiencing a supply surplus and weak demand. The average utilization rate of coking coal mines is at 86.4%, down 1.3% week-on-week [26][30] - The report highlights that the third round of price reductions for coking coal has been implemented, with significant price drops observed in various regions [26][29] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels in the Bohai Rim ports has decreased, and shipping prices have also declined. The average shipping price from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou is 40.30 yuan/ton, down 2.15 yuan/ton week-on-week [34][36] Industry News - The report covers significant developments such as the first coal transport from Meizhou Bay Port to Ningbo Zhoushan Port, the launch of Australian coal trading at Hainan International Energy Trading Center, and the approval of a coal mine integration plan in Inner Mongolia [37][38]

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 港口库存压力缓解，动力煤产地价强势反弹 【2025.5.26-2025.6.1】 行业评级：中性 发布日期：2025.6.3 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2024-06-07 2024-07-07 2024-08-07 2024-09-07 2024-10-07 2024-11-07 2024-12-07 2025-01-07 2025-02-07 2025-03-07 2025-04-07 2025-05-07 沪深300 煤炭指数 大同证券研究中心 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 邮箱： liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 核心观点 ◆ 港口库存压力缓解，动力煤产地价强势反弹。本周，煤价稳中 有升，随着高温天增加，电煤日耗将进入提升阶段，但当前供 需宽松，预计 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Views - Port inventory pressure has eased, leading to a strong rebound in the price of thermal coal at production sites. Despite the increase in coal prices, the market is expected to face resistance in forming an effective rebound due to the current supply-demand balance remaining loose [4][10] - Coking coal prices are stable but declining, with total inventory of coking steel continuing to decrease. The market is under pressure from the second round of price reductions for coke, but due to low inventory levels, coal prices are expected to remain stable [4][25] - The equity market shows mixed performance, with the coal sector slightly underperforming the index. Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumer income and stabilizing the economy have been released, but geopolitical tensions have weakened the overall market performance [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market experienced mixed results, with the coal sector slightly underperforming the index. The average trading volume was 1.1 trillion yuan, with a decrease in trading heat compared to the previous week [5][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% to 3347.49 points, while the CSI 300 Index dropped by 1.08% to 3840.23 points. The coal sector saw a slight decline of 0.33% [5] Thermal Coal - The price of thermal coal at production sites has rebounded strongly, with the average utilization rate of 100 thermal coal mines reaching 93.6%, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous week. However, the market remains under pressure due to a loose supply-demand relationship [9][11] - The average daily consumption of coal at southern power plants was 1.693 million tons, a decrease of 182,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a cautious purchasing attitude among buyers [9][17] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are stable but declining, with the average utilization rate of 88 sample coking coal mines at 87.7%, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous week. The market is facing pressure from weak demand and oversupply [25][26] - The average price of coking coal in Shanxi was reported at 1,028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton from the previous week [27] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim ports has increased, with an average of 84 vessels per day, a rise of 21 vessels from the previous week. Shipping prices have shown mixed fluctuations [34][35] Industry News - The government of Yulin City is taking measures to address the decline in coal prices by promoting supply-side reforms and increasing coal storage capacity [37] - The Daqin Railway is expected to benefit from the increasing concentration of coal resources in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions, which will support coal transportation [37]

Market Review - The equity market indices collectively declined last week, with the North Certificate 50 experiencing the largest drop of 3.68% [4] - The bond market showed mixed trends, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 4.15 basis points to 1.721% [10] - The pharmaceutical sector outperformed, while the computer and machinery sectors lagged behind [4][5] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on funds related to the green low-carbon development plan approved by the State Council, such as Industrial Bank Eco-Environment A and Anxin New Energy Theme A [15] - The recent launch of new floating management fee funds presents investment opportunities, with notable funds including Harvest Growth and Huaxia Return A [17] - The overall asset allocation strategy suggests a balanced core with a barbell approach, emphasizing dividend and technology sectors [18] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The central bank's recent operations indicate a net injection of 1.2 trillion yuan, maintaining a loose monetary environment [22] - The LPR was lowered by 10 basis points, with the one-year LPR now at 3.0% [22] - The market remains cautious due to mixed economic data, with retail sales and industrial output showing varied growth [22][23] Key Focus Products - Recommended funds include Nord Short Bond A and Guotai Li'an Medium and Short Bond A, which are positioned to benefit from the current market conditions [28] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overall performance of major asset classes shows that the bond market remains stable, while the stock and commodity markets decline. The A-share market may experience short-term high-level fluctuations, but the medium- and long-term trend is stable and positive. The bond market is stable and improving, and the commodity market is in a low position with precious metals rising alone unable to rescue the market [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Performance of Major Asset Classes - The A-share market rose slightly in the first half of the week and then fell back. The bond market is relatively stable due to its low risk, while the commodity market is still oscillating at the bottom. The sudden change in the Middle East situation has cast a shadow over the international crude oil market, and the repeated fluctuations in gold prices have added more uncertainties to the commodity market [2][10]. 2. Equity Market Core View - The A-share market climbed in the first half of the week and then fell back, remaining in a short-term oscillation range. Although the international situation shows signs of stability and relaxation, there are still local hidden dangers. However, with the implementation of domestic policies, the medium- and long-term trend of the A-share market is stable and positive. The technology sector is expected to have a continuous market, and the consumption sector has great potential [13][14]. Allocation Suggestion - In the short term, the market fundamentals are good, and policies are expected to drive funds into the market. The consumption and technology sectors are expected to lead the market out of the short-term oscillation. A dumbbell strategy is recommended, grasping the opportunities in the technology and consumption sectors while retaining the allocation of the dividend sector [3][15]. 3. Bond Market Tracking Core View - The bond market is stable and improving. The central bank conducted a 500 billion MLF operation, and the issuance scale of bond ETFs continued to break through. With the injection of funds, the bond market will have continuous opportunities in the short term [4][38]. Bond Market Allocation Suggestion - In general, the bond market is still a stable allocation product for investors in the short term, but the medium- and long-term logic of the bond market has not been verified, and relatively flexible short-term bonds are more popular in the market [7][38]. 4. Commodity Market Tracking Core View - The commodity market rose and then fell again, remaining in a low position. The significant decline in metal products is the main reason for the market's decline. Gold has rebounded, but it is unable to drive the commodity market up. In the short term, gold may fluctuate at a high level, and it still has allocation value in the medium and long term [8][47]. Commodity Allocation Suggestion - It is recommended to maintain the allocation of gold in the short term and continue to observe in the medium and long term [8][48].

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 海运量价齐升，静待需求回暖 【2025.5.19-2025.5.25】 行业评级：中性 核心观点 ◆ 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2024-05-31 2024-06-30 2024-07-31 2024-08-31 2024-09-30 2024-10-31 2024-11-30 2024-12-31 2025-01-31 2025-02-28 2025-03-31 2025-04-30 沪深300 煤炭指数 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 邮箱： liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 1 发布日期：2025.5.26 大同证券研究中心 ◆ 疏港压力仍大，动力煤价跌跌不休。本周，煤炭价格继续下行， 当前动力煤市场供需极不平衡，库存高位仍然是压制价格的主 要因 ...