Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [2][24]. Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" sentiment is still present, with the coal industry experiencing fluctuations and a recent increase of 1.65% on July 24 [5][6]. - The report highlights the potential for a rebound in the coal market, similar to the 2016 supply-side reform, with the possibility of a price surge in the near future [5][7]. - Key stocks to watch include stable companies like Jinkong Coal Industry and Shaanxi Coal Industry, as well as elastic companies like Shanmei International and Hengyuan Coal Power [21][22]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Dynamics - The report discusses the historical trends of coal prices and indices, noting that after the supply-side reforms in 2016, coal prices significantly increased due to reduced supply and stable demand [7][11]. - The current "anti-involution" sentiment is seen as a 2.0 version of supply-side reform, suggesting a potential price increase in the coal index [7][21]. Company Analysis - The report analyzes 18 coal companies, indicating that most are small to mid-cap, with major players being China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Zhongmei Energy [12][14]. - Recent mergers and acquisitions are noted, aligning with national strategies to optimize industry structure and enhance competitiveness [13][14]. Financial Metrics - The report provides insights into inventory levels and capacity utilization, indicating that companies like Jinkong Coal Industry and Shaanxi Coal have high inventory growth rates but also high asset turnover ratios [15][16]. - Most companies maintain a debt-to-asset ratio below 60%, with several companies showing improved asset quality and profitability [17][18]. Valuation and Dividend Capacity - The report highlights that companies like Anyuan Coal Industry and New Dazhou A have high price-to-book (PB) ratios, indicating they are at their highest valuation levels in five years [19][20]. - Dividend stability is emphasized, with companies like China Shenhua and Hengyuan Coal Power maintaining high dividend payout ratios [19][20]. Notable Stocks - The report identifies Jinkong Coal Industry and Shaanxi Coal Industry as stable investment options, while Shanmei International and Hengyuan Coal Power are noted for their elasticity and potential for growth [21][22][23].

Market Overview - The report indicates that major asset classes have shown positive performance, with Hong Kong stocks leading, followed by crude oil and A-shares. The A-share market saw the ChiNext Index increase by 3.17% [2][6] - The average stock position of all funds decreased to 78.89%, a drop of 1.38 percentage points from the previous week. However, the average position for ordinary equity funds rose to 83.57%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points [2][10] Equity Fund Performance - Passive index funds averaged an increase of 1.92%, while ordinary equity funds saw an average rise of 2.94%. Enhanced index funds increased by 1.49%, and flexible allocation funds rose by 2.19%. The best-performing fund in the passive category was the Invesco CSI Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF, which surged by 13.98% [3][11] - The report highlights that the average performance of various equity fund types shows significant variability, with the top-performing funds in the ordinary equity category achieving a maximum increase of 17.61% [12][13] Fixed Income Fund Performance - Fixed income products also showed positive trends, with mixed bond funds averaging a 0.49% increase. The best performer in this category was the Huashang Dual-Wing Balanced Mixed A, which rose by 5.09% [14] - The report details that short-term pure bond funds had a minimal average increase of 0.05%, indicating a relatively stable performance in the fixed income market [14][15] Other Fund Categories - Commodity funds averaged a 0.51% increase, with the highest performer being the soybean meal ETF, which rose by 2.43%. International (QDII) funds performed well, averaging a 2.46% increase, with the top fund gaining 15.89% [15][16] - REITs funds remained stable, with the best performer showing a modest increase of 3.05% [16] Fund Market Dynamics - The report notes that 36 new funds were established this week, raising a total of 180.74 billion, which is a decrease compared to the previous week. Among these, 20 were equity funds, which raised the largest amount at 63.38 billion [18][19] - As of July 18, 2025, the total number of public funds reached 12,963, with a total net asset value of 33.78 trillion [21][22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector is experiencing explosive growth, with a 6.18% increase on July 22, indicating a lag compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which has reached a new high since last year [4] - The current proportion of loss-making enterprises in the coal industry is 53.6%, significantly higher than 35% in 2016, highlighting the need for regulatory measures to optimize the industry order and stabilize supply-demand relationships [6][8] - The "anti-involution" policy initiated on July 1, 2025, aims to eliminate low-price competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity, which is crucial for the coal industry's recovery [7][8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - High temperatures have led to a surge in daily coal consumption for power generation, with coal prices continuing to rise due to increased demand from steel mills and ongoing infrastructure projects [12] - The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal has increased by 38 yuan/ton, reflecting a clear turning point in the coal market fundamentals [12] Section 2: Valuation and Dividend Yield - As of July 22, the coal sector's price-to-book ratio is 1.27, placing it in the 34.77th percentile over the past five years, indicating a low valuation level [15] - The dynamic dividend yield for coal stocks is 5.27%, which is higher than the banking sector's 4.0% and the CSI 300's 2.82%, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [15]

Market Review - The equity market saw most major indices rise, with the ChiNext Index leading at an increase of 3.17% [4][5] - The bond market experienced a decline in both short and long-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond rate decreasing by 0.01 basis points to 1.665% [8][12] - The fund market reflected a rebound, with the equity fund index rising by 3.06% and the secondary bond fund index increasing by 0.35% [13] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on low-altitude economy development, with recommended funds such as Huashan Manufacturing Pioneer A (006154) and Bosera Military Industry Theme A (004698) [18][15] - The asset allocation strategy suggests a balanced core plus a barbell strategy, emphasizing dividend and technology sectors, with funds like Anxin Dividend Select A (018381) and Jiashi Hong Kong Internet Core Assets (011924) [18][19] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - Market analysis indicates a net injection of 12,011 billion yuan by the central bank, maintaining a loose monetary stance [20] - The GDP data for the first half of the year shows a growth of 5.3%, indicating effective growth stabilization policies [20] - Key products to focus on include Nord Short Bond A (005350) and Huashan Pure Bond A (040040) [24][25]

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 焦炭首轮提涨落地，动力煤、焦煤价格齐涨 【2025.7.14-2025.7.20】 行业评级：中性 核心观点 发布日期：2025.7.21 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2024-07-26 2024-08-26 2024-09-26 2024-10-26 2024-11-26 2024-12-26 2025-01-26 2025-02-26 2025-03-26 2025-04-26 2025-05-26 2025-06-26 沪深300 煤炭指数 大同证券研究中心 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 ◆ 迎峰度夏进行时，动力煤价稳步攀升。当前动力煤市场呈现"旺 季需求主导、供给结构性收紧"的特征，受全国多地持续高温 影响，价格在高温驱动下稳步上涨。 ◆ 焦炭首轮提涨，焦煤价格继续上涨。在暴雨天气影响下，煤矿 产量恢复缓慢，"反内卷"政策和下游阶段性补库需求，以及 焦炭首轮提涨下，炼焦煤价格仍有继续上涨的可能。 ◆ 权益市场以涨为主，煤炭板块跑输指数。上半年 GD ...

证券研究报告——市场日报 市场风格转向 沪指再攀高峰 证券研究报告——市场日报 2025.07.18 （预计发布时间：2025.07.21） 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址: http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 行情回顾 周五（7 月 18 日），A 股三大指数集体收 涨。沪指早盘波动上扬，午盘回落后再度震荡 上行，收报 3534.48 点，涨幅 0.50%，创年内 收盘新高。深指、创指高开后震荡走低，午后 触底反弹，尾盘收红，深指收报 10913.84 点， 涨 0.37%；创业板指报 2277.15 点，涨 0.34%。 当日两市成交额 1.57 万亿，两市量能仍维持 较高区间。板块方面，小金属、能源金属等周 期资源板块领涨，稀土永磁概念爆发。而 CPO 概念回调，计算机、光伏等板块走弱。个股涨 跌互现，近 2600 只个股上涨。 风险提示 中报业绩存雷，追高需谨慎 当日要闻 TDI 全球市场震荡 有工厂单日涨价 30% 国内龙 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3505.00 points, down by 0.42%[2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10744.56 points, up by 0.56%[2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2235.05 points, up by 1.73%[2] - Total trading volume exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, with a turnover of 16,120.63 million yuan[5] Economic Data - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with a second-quarter growth of 5.2%[3] - The first quarter GDP growth was recorded at 5.4%, while the second quarter saw a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1%[3] - The primary industry added value was 31,172 million yuan, growing by 3.7%[3] - The secondary industry added value was 239,050 million yuan, growing by 5.3%[3] - The tertiary industry added value was 390,314 million yuan, growing by 5.5%[3] Sector Performance - Most sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry index declined, with telecommunications, computers, and electronics leading the gains[2] - Coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and public utilities sectors experienced the largest declines[2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - High temperatures and ongoing "anti-involution" trends are expected to support coal prices, particularly for thermal coal, as demand continues to rise with increased electricity consumption [3][8] - The supply-demand relationship for coking coal is easing, with prices expected to rise due to recovering supply and ongoing demand from downstream industries [24][25] - The coal sector has underperformed compared to broader market indices, with significant fluctuations in stock performance across various coal companies [4][3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed an upward trend, but the coal sector lagged behind major indices, with the coal industry index declining by 1.08% [4][3] - Major coal companies experienced mixed performance, with some showing significant gains while others faced declines [4] Thermal Coal - Port inventories of thermal coal are decreasing, and high temperatures are driving up prices, with expectations for continued price increases due to limited supply [8][9] - Daily coal consumption at power plants has increased, with southern power plants consuming 2.139 million tons, a 13.1% increase week-on-week [8][9] - The average daily inventory at northern ports has decreased to over 27 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [16][17] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are rising, supported by recovering supply and strong demand from steel manufacturers, with production rates remaining high despite some operational challenges [24][25] - The average utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased to 86.0%, indicating a recovery in production [24][25] - The market is seeing a shift in import dynamics, with Russian coal gaining market share due to competitive pricing [25][26] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at ports has increased, and shipping prices have risen, indicating a robust demand for coal transportation [32][33] - The average shipping price from Qinhuangdao to various ports has shown an upward trend, reflecting increased shipping activity [32][33] Industry News - The National Energy Group has received approval for the first national standard verification point for carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), marking a significant step in the industry [35] - National electricity loads have reached historical highs due to high temperatures and economic growth, indicating strong demand for coal-fired power generation [35][36]

Market Overview - The equity market indices showed a positive trend last week, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains at 2.36%, followed by the CSI 300 Index at 0.82% and the Shanghai Composite Index at 1.09% [6][7] - The real estate sector experienced a significant rebound, with a rise of 6.12%, while industries such as steel and non-bank financials also performed well [6][7] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include monitoring the upcoming implementation of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation in August, which is expected to issue licenses within the year, benefiting related funds [18] - The announcement of price increases by two major rare earth companies is another event to watch, with potential positive impacts on related funds [19] - The upcoming developer conference by Rockchip is anticipated to highlight advancements in semiconductor technology, suggesting investment opportunities in related funds [20] Asset Allocation Strategy - The overall allocation strategy emphasizes a balanced core and a barbell approach, focusing on dividend and technology sectors [21] - High dividend assets are highlighted as having significant allocation value due to the low interest rate environment and government support for dividend-paying companies [21][22] - The technology growth sector is seen as valuable due to national policy support and the increasing importance of domestic technology innovation [23] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The central bank's recent operations indicate a net withdrawal of funds, maintaining a balanced monetary policy [24] - Recent CPI data shows a shift from decline to increase, indicating potential inflationary pressures [24] - The new round of tariffs announced by the Trump administration may impact market dynamics, necessitating careful monitoring [24] Key Focus Products - Recommended funds include short-term bond funds like Nord Short Bond A and Huaan Pure Bond A, which are positioned to benefit from current market conditions [29] - The report suggests maintaining a cautious approach to short-term bond funds while exploring opportunities in medium to long-term bond funds [28]

Market Overview - The equity market has shown a strong upward trend, achieving a weekly three consecutive gains[1] - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully surpassing 3500 points, boosting investor confidence[2] - The bond market experienced a downward trend, pressured by the strong performance of the equity market[3] Equity Market Insights - Financial sectors, including banks, securities, and real estate, have taken the lead in driving market growth, especially as the technology sector faced short-term setbacks[2] - The current market environment is characterized by uncertainty due to global trade tensions, particularly with the U.S. threatening to impose tariffs[2] - Short-term strategies suggest maintaining a balanced approach, holding both technology and financial sectors while considering service-oriented consumption[14] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market has shown a flat performance with an overall decline, influenced by the strong equity market which has limited upward potential for bonds[3] - Despite the short-term fluctuations, the overall liquidity remains loose, benefiting short-term bonds[5] Commodity Market Overview - Major commodities like oil and gold have shown lackluster performance, with the market remaining in a low-level oscillation phase[6] - The geopolitical situation and abundant oil supply continue to impact the global oil market negatively, while gold remains stable due to a weakening dollar[6] Investment Recommendations - For the equity market, it is recommended to focus on the financial sector for short-term gains while keeping an eye on the dual innovation sectors for long-term growth[14] - In the commodity market, maintaining a position in gold is advised for the short term, with a watchful eye on market developments for the long term[40]