Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The current thermal coal market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" phase, with short-term price stabilization supported by summer peak demand, but limited upside potential due to high inventory levels and regulatory easing [4][10] - Coking coal prices are stabilizing amid a rebound in total inventory, driven by downstream steel companies replenishing stocks of cost-effective coal types [4][24] - The equity market is primarily bullish, with the coal sector outperforming the index, as evidenced by a 1.60% weekly increase in the coal sector index [5][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed an upward trend, with the coal sector outperforming the broader indices, as the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3497.22 points [5][9] - The average trading volume was 1.4 trillion yuan, with a daily financing amount fluctuating around 110 billion yuan [5] Thermal Coal - Upstream port inventories continue to decline, with daily coal consumption at power plants increasing due to rising temperatures [9][17] - The average daily coal inventory at power plants is approximately 35.82 million tons, with a daily consumption of 2.078 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase [18] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are experiencing mixed trends, with supply tightening due to safety inspections and environmental regulations [24][25] - The average utilization rate of coking coal mines is 84.4%, indicating a slight decrease in production capacity [24] Shipping Situation - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim has increased, with average daily shipping prices showing a downward trend [33][34] Industry News - In the first five months of 2025, Ningxia's coal production decreased by 3.0%, while sales increased by 6.1% [36] - The Indian government extended the import restrictions on low-ash metallurgical coke for an additional six months [37]

Market Review - The equity market indices rebounded collectively last week, with the CSI 300 index showing the largest increase of 1.54% [4][5] - The bond market saw a decline in both short and long-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.29 basis points to 1.643% [9][12] - The fund market experienced gains in equity funds and secondary bond indices, with the equity fund index rising by 1.25% [14] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategy includes focusing on funds related to the newly released policy supporting high-quality development of innovative drugs, such as ICBC Medical Health A (006002) and Penghua Medical Technology A (001230) [16] - The asset allocation strategy suggests a balanced core plus a barbell strategy, emphasizing dividend and technology sectors, with recommended funds including Anxin Dividend Select (018381) and Jiashi Hong Kong Internet Core Assets (011924) [18][20] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - Market analysis indicates a net withdrawal of 13,753 billion yuan in central bank operations, maintaining a loose monetary balance [21] - The June PMI data suggests the economy is in a recovery phase, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.7% and the non-manufacturing PMI at 50.5% [21] - Convertible bonds are highlighted as having allocation value, with a median price around 1200, but caution is advised due to potential volatility risks [23][26]

Market Overview - On July 4, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.32% to close at 3472.32 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to 10508.76 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.36% to 2156.23 points[2] - The total trading volume in both markets exceeded 1.4 trillion CNY, amounting to 14,285.45 billion CNY[2][4] Sector Performance - The banking sector led gains with an increase of 1.84%, followed by media at 0.91% and comprehensive services at 0.71%[5] - The beauty and personal care sector experienced the largest decline at -1.87%, followed by non-ferrous metals at -1.60% and basic chemicals at -1.22%[5] Market Sentiment - A total of 1,169 stocks rose, while 4,118 stocks declined, indicating a market breadth of 21.37% for advancing stocks[4] - The net inflow of funds into the banking sector was significant, contributing to its positive performance[6] Risk Factors - The report highlights potential risks from international market fluctuations that could impact domestic performance[3]

Economic Outlook - The GDP growth rate is expected to reach 5.3% in Q2 2025 and an annual growth rate of 5.2% for the year[4] - The dual-engine model of exports and consumption is expected to drive economic stability despite global uncertainties[4] Inflation and Prices - Core CPI is projected to rise moderately, with an annual average expected to reach 0.2%[5] - PPI is anticipated to stabilize around -2% for the year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the industrial sector[5] Consumption Trends - Retail sales reached 41,326 billion yuan in May 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.4%[44] - Service-oriented consumption is becoming a focal point, driven by policies that enhance consumer spending[44] Investment Dynamics - Manufacturing and infrastructure investments are maintaining a growth rate of around 5%, while real estate investment remains weak[51] - Government policies are expected to support the stabilization of the real estate sector in the latter half of 2025[51] Export Performance - Exports are showing resilience, with a structural shift towards high-value products amid global uncertainties[59] - The share of low-value processing trade is declining, while high-value general trade is becoming the focus for future exports[62] Corporate Profits - Profits of large-scale industrial enterprises are expected to recover slightly, with private enterprises showing signs of increased momentum[65] - The overall profit growth is linked to the broader economic recovery and supportive policies[65] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to undergo structural adjustments, with a projected deficit rate of 4% for 2025 and increased special bond issuance[70] - Monetary policy will likely remain accommodative, with expectations for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[70]

Market Overview - The equity market saw a collective rebound last week, with the North Certificate 50 index rising the most by 6.84%, followed by the ChiNext index at 5.69% and the Wande All A index at 3.56% [5][6] - The TMT sector experienced a collective rebound, with notable increases in the computer sector (7.70%), defense and military industry (6.90%), and non-bank financials (6.66%) [5][6] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on the upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance against Japan on September 3, with recommended funds such as Huashan Manufacturing Pioneer A (006154) and Boshi Military Industry Theme A (004698) [16] - The recent joint issuance of guidelines by six departments to support consumption can lead to investment opportunities in funds like ICBC Consumer Service A (481013) and Jiashi New Consumption A (001044) [17] - The National Medical Insurance Administration's issuance of guidelines for the 2025 basic medical insurance directory may benefit funds like ICBC Medical Health A (006002) and Penghua Medical Technology A (001230) [18] Asset Allocation Strategy - The overall allocation strategy suggests a balanced core plus a barbell strategy, focusing on dividend and technology sectors [19] - High dividend assets are highlighted as having significant allocation value due to the low interest rate environment and government support for dividend-paying companies [20] - The technology growth direction is emphasized due to national policy support, high industry prosperity, and the need for domestic companies to enhance competitiveness [21] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The central bank's recent net injection of 12,672 billion yuan indicates a continued loose monetary policy, which is expected to support technology innovation and consumption [24] - The profit data from industrial enterprises shows a decline, suggesting potential for more proactive policies to stimulate domestic demand [25] - Convertible bonds are noted for their dual characteristics of debt and equity, maintaining value but with caution advised regarding volatility risks [26] Key Focus Products - Recommended funds include Nord Short Bond A (005350) and Anxin New Value A (003026), which are positioned to benefit from current market conditions [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The price of thermal coal continues to rise due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, with expectations for further price increases [3][9][10] - Coking coal prices are fluctuating, with slight increases in total inventory for coking steel, but the overall market sentiment remains weak due to fundamental pressures [3][25][26] - The equity market is primarily bullish, but the coal sector underperformed compared to the broader index, suggesting a need for careful stock selection within the sector [3][4] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Upstream port inventories continue to decline, leading to sustained price increases for thermal coal. The capacity utilization rate of 100 thermal coal mines is at 89.8%, down 1.2% from the previous period [9][11] - Daily consumption of thermal coal at power plants is expected to improve marginally due to rising temperatures and increased demand, with southern power plants consuming 1.84 million tons daily, up 1.3 million tons week-on-week [9][17] - The price of thermal coal at production sites is rising, with prices for Q5500 thermal coal in Shanxi at 493 CNY/ton, up 2 CNY/ton week-on-week [11][14] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are mixed, with supply tightening due to safety inspections and environmental checks, leading to a capacity utilization rate of 84.4% for 88 sample coking coal mines [25][27] - The average profit margin for steel mills is 59.32%, indicating a stable production environment, while coking coal inventories at independent coking enterprises have increased to 678.66 million tons [25][30] - The CCI coking coal index shows stability, with prices for various types of coking coal remaining relatively unchanged [27][28] Market Performance - The equity market saw an overall increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.91% to 3424.23 points, while the coal sector only increased by 0.66%, underperforming the broader market [4][9] - The average daily trading volume in the market was 1.5 trillion CNY, indicating a high level of market activity despite the coal sector's underperformance [4][9] Shipping and Logistics - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim increased to an average of 99 ships per day, with shipping prices also rising across major routes [34][35] - The average shipping price from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou is now 41.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.10 CNY/ton [34][36] Industry News - In May, China's imports of thermal coal decreased by 0.96%, while imports of coking coal fell by 16.9% [37] - Shanxi Province reported a significant increase in coalbed methane production, accounting for 82% of the national total [37][38]

Market Overview - The equity market experienced a collective decline last week, with the North Certificate 50 index dropping the most at 2.55% [5][6] - The bond market saw a collective decline in both short and long-term interest rates, with the 1-year government bond rate decreasing by 4.50 basis points to 1.355% [9][13] - The fund market reflected the equity market's downturn, with the偏股基金指数 down 1.65% and the二级债基指数 down 0.07% [15][16] Event-Driven Strategy - The National Medical Products Administration has initiated support for the innovation of high-end medical devices, highlighting investment opportunities in funds such as 南方医药保健 A (000452), 鹏华品牌传承 (000431), and 信澳健康中国 A (003291) [17] - Xiaomi's first SUV is set to launch, presenting potential investment in 工银新能源汽车 A (005939), 嘉实港股互联网产业核心资产 A (011924), and 鹏华新能源汽车 A (016067) [17][18] - The World Mobile Communications Conference held in Shanghai showcased advancements in robotics, indicating investment potential in 华夏智造升级 A (016075), 嘉实制造升级 A (018240), and 鹏华碳中和主题 A (016530) [19] Asset Allocation Strategy - The report suggests a balanced core and barbell strategy, focusing on dividend and technology sectors, with recommended funds including 安信红利精选 A (018381) and 嘉实港股互联网核心资产 (011924) [20][21] - The report emphasizes the value of high-dividend assets due to the low interest rate environment and government policies encouraging dividends [20] - The technology growth sector is highlighted for its investment value, driven by national policy support and the global trend towards artificial intelligence [21] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The central bank's recent actions indicate a net injection of 102.1 billion yuan, maintaining a balanced and loose funding environment [24] - The report notes that the LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year rate, aligning with market expectations [25] - Economic data from May showed better-than-expected performance, with industrial value-added growth at 5.8% year-on-year [25] Key Focus Products - Recommended funds include 诺德短债 A (005350) for short-term strategies and 安信新价值 A (003026) for a bond-equity hybrid approach [30][29]

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced narrow fluctuations, ultimately closing in the red: Shanghai Composite Index at 3387.40 (-0.04%), Shenzhen Component Index at 10151.43 (-0.12%), and ChiNext Index at 2049.94 (-0.36%) [2] - The total trading volume in both markets remained at 1.2 trillion CNY [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included coal (+0.89%), public utilities (+0.82%), and oil & petrochemicals (+0.72%) [6] - The worst-performing sectors were pharmaceuticals (-1.44%), beauty care (-1.24%), and media (-1.22%) [6] Market Statistics - Out of 5,413 stocks, 2,250 rose, 247 remained flat, and 2,916 fell, indicating a decline rate of approximately 53.8% [5] - The total trading volume was 986.94 million shares, with a total turnover of 12,072.13 billion CNY [5] Risk Factors - The report highlights potential risks from international market volatility, particularly following the EU's cancellation of high-level economic dialogues with China [3] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict in Israel and Iran, have prompted the Chinese government to organize the evacuation of its citizens from the region [3] Oil Price Adjustment - Domestic fuel prices were adjusted upward, with gasoline prices increasing by 260 CNY/ton and diesel by 255 CNY/ton, translating to a rise of 0.20 CNY for 92-octane gasoline and 0.22 CNY for 95-octane gasoline and 0-octane diesel [3]

Market Review - The equity market experienced a general pullback last week, with the North Certificate 50 index showing the largest decline at -3.11%, while the ChiNext index rose slightly by 0.22% [5][6] - Among the 31 industries tracked, non-ferrous metals and petroleum & petrochemicals showed significant rebounds, with increases of 3.79% and 3.50% respectively [5][6] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on the Middle East tensions, with potential investments in oil and gold-related funds such as E Fund Oil C and Huaan Yifu Gold ETF [12][14] - The defense and military industry may present new opportunities, particularly with the establishment of the Xiong'an Aerospace Satellite Super Factory, which could lead to increased interest in related funds like Bosera Military Theme A and Huaxia Military Safety A [14][15] - Quantum computing is at a turning point, with Nvidia planning to build 20 AI factories in Europe, suggesting investment potential in funds like Huaxia Intelligent Manufacturing A and Jiao Yin Technology Innovation A [14][17] Asset Allocation Strategy - The overall allocation strategy emphasizes a balanced core with a barbell approach, focusing on dividend and technology sectors [18] - High dividend assets are highlighted as having significant allocation value due to the low interest rate environment and government support for dividend-paying companies [18][19] - The technology growth sector is underscored as a key investment area, driven by national policy support and the global trend towards AI development [19] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The central bank's recent operations indicate a net withdrawal of 727 billion yuan, reflecting a cautious market outlook [22] - Recent inflation data shows a slight decline, suggesting continued room for monetary policy easing [23] - Convertible bonds are noted for their dual characteristics of debt and equity, maintaining value despite market volatility, with a median price around 1200 [22][23] Key Focus Products - Recommended funds include Nord Short Bond A and Anxin New Value A, which are positioned to benefit from current market conditions [27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Insights - Port inventory is being reduced, and coal prices may be nearing the bottom. Some production areas have seen an increase in coal prices, but without a significant reduction in inventory, a price turning point is unlikely [10][11] - Coking coal prices continue to decline, and total inventory in the coking steel sector is decreasing. The market is expected to maintain a weak trend for coking coal prices [24][25] - The equity market shows mixed performance, with the coal sector slightly underperforming the index. Recent geopolitical events have heightened risk aversion, impacting market sentiment [6][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market experienced mixed results, with the coal sector slightly underperforming the indices. The average market turnover was 1.3 trillion yuan, with daily financing fluctuating around 100 billion yuan [6][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, closing at 3377 points, while the CSI 300 Index also fell by 0.25%, closing at 3864.18 points. The coal sector saw a slight decline of 0.50%, closing at 2565.75 points [6][10] Thermal Coal - Port inventory is being reduced, with northern ports seeing a decrease in coal inventory to below 29 million tons. Daily average coal consumption at southern power plants increased to 1.804 million tons, up 4.6% week-on-week [10][16] - The price of thermal coal has shown mixed fluctuations, with some production areas experiencing price increases. However, the overall market is expected to face pressure due to weak demand [11][12] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continue to decline, with the average price for various types of coking coal dropping significantly. The market is characterized by cautious purchasing behavior from downstream steel companies [24][25] - The average utilization rate of coking coal mines is at 85.8%, with a slight decrease week-on-week. The overall supply remains relatively sufficient [24][27] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim has increased, with an average of 75 vessels per day. Shipping prices have also decreased, reflecting a broader trend in the coal transportation market [32][33] Industry News - The U.S. government has approved plans for coal mining companies to expand operations to boost exports to Asia. This move is part of a broader strategy to strengthen ties with overseas allies [35] - Shanxi Province aims to increase coalbed methane reserves by 20% year-on-year by the end of 2025, highlighting efforts to optimize resource utilization [35][36]