证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 港口库存压力缓解，动力煤产地价强势反弹 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 邮箱： liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 【2025.5.26-2025.6.1】 行业评级：中性 发布日期：2025.6.3 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2024-06-07 2024-07-07 2024-08-07 2024-09-07 2024-10-07 2024-11-07 2024-12-07 2025-01-07 2025-02-07 2025-03-07 2025-04-07 2025-05-07 沪深300 煤炭指数 大同证券研究中心 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 核心观点 ◆ 港口库存压力缓解，动力煤产地价强势反弹。本周，煤价稳中 有升，随着高温天增加，电煤日耗将进入提升阶段，但当前供 需宽松，预计在库 ...

Market Review - The equity market indices collectively declined last week, with the North Certificate 50 experiencing the largest drop of 3.68% [4] - The bond market showed mixed trends, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 4.15 basis points to 1.721% [10] - The pharmaceutical sector outperformed, while the computer and machinery sectors lagged behind [4][5] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on funds related to the green low-carbon development plan approved by the State Council, such as Industrial Bank Eco-Environment A and Anxin New Energy Theme A [15] - The recent launch of new floating management fee funds presents investment opportunities, with notable funds including Harvest Growth and Huaxia Return A [17] - The overall asset allocation strategy suggests a balanced core with a barbell approach, emphasizing dividend and technology sectors [18] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The central bank's recent operations indicate a net injection of 1.2 trillion yuan, maintaining a loose monetary environment [22] - The LPR was lowered by 10 basis points, with the one-year LPR now at 3.0% [22] - The market remains cautious due to mixed economic data, with retail sales and industrial output showing varied growth [22][23] Key Focus Products - Recommended funds include Nord Short Bond A and Guotai Li'an Medium and Short Bond A, which are positioned to benefit from the current market conditions [28] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [20]

证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 5 月 27 日 债市独稳 全球不确定性仍然存在 【20250519-20250525】 核心观点 大类资产总览：债市独稳，股商下行。 本周，A 股前半周小幅拉升后回落，全球整体态势相对平稳， 在此环境下，权益市场相对处于高位，但可以看到，美联储 关税反复、中东局势突发等局部波动仍然存在，短期仍会带 来市场震荡，在此情况下，债市反而因其风险较低，处于相 对稳定状态；大宗商品市场仍在底部震荡，中东局势的突变 为国际原油市场蒙上了一丝阴霾，金价的反复波动再度为商 品市场的走势增添了更多的不确定性。 本周 A 股观点：A 股短期或仍将经历高位震荡。 本周 A 股前半周有所攀升，之后再度回落，短期仍处于震荡 区间。具体来看，国际形势近期虽有平稳缓和迹象，但局部 隐患仍在，美对华科技打压仍然存在，关税政策仍存反复可 能，中东局势突变，地缘冲突波澜再起，局部的波动或会在 短期引发市场的持续震荡。但面对压力，国内政策迎来持续 落地期，央行再度开展 5000 亿 MLF 操作释放流动性，多部 门释放对科技企业、微小企业融资利好，多重利好加持下， 中长期 A 股企稳向好趋势不变。 ...

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 海运量价齐升，静待需求回暖 【2025.5.19-2025.5.25】 行业评级：中性 核心观点 ◆ 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2024-05-31 2024-06-30 2024-07-31 2024-08-31 2024-09-30 2024-10-31 2024-11-30 2024-12-31 2025-01-31 2025-02-28 2025-03-31 2025-04-30 沪深300 煤炭指数 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 邮箱： liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 1 发布日期：2025.5.26 大同证券研究中心 ◆ 疏港压力仍大，动力煤价跌跌不休。本周，煤炭价格继续下行， 当前动力煤市场供需极不平衡，库存高位仍然是压制价格的主 要因 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is experiencing a significant imbalance between supply and demand, with high inventory levels suppressing prices. However, with the arrival of the summer peak electricity demand, coal prices are expected to stabilize in the future [5][11] - The focus on cash flow and high dividend-paying coal stocks is recommended as a strategy for investors [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market is primarily down, but the coal sector outperformed the index. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57% to 3348.37 points, while the coal sector rose by 1.03% to 2587.34 points [6][10] - The average market turnover was 1.2 trillion yuan, with daily financing buy-ins fluctuating around 90 billion yuan [5][6] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices continue to decline due to high inventory levels and weak demand. The average daily consumption of coal at southern power plants is 1.795 million tons, a decrease of 0.9 million tons week-on-week [10][11] - The current price for various thermal coal grades has decreased significantly compared to last year, with prices for Q5500 thermal coal at 444 yuan/ton in Shanxi, down 28 yuan/ton week-on-week [12][15] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are stable but declining, with the average utilization rate of coking coal mines at 87.9%, a decrease of 0.8% week-on-week [26][28] - The price for various coking coal grades has also seen a decline, with Shanxi's coking coal at 1044 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week-on-week [28] Shipping Situation - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim region has increased, with an average of 61 vessels per day, up by 12 vessels week-on-week. Shipping prices have also risen, with the Qinhuangdao-Guangzhou route averaging 43.40 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.55 yuan/ton week-on-week [35][36] Industry News - The coal industry is seeing advancements in smart mining technology, with the market expected to grow at an annual rate of over 10%, reaching 67 billion yuan by 2025 [38] - Significant developments include the launch of the carbon measurement center in Shanxi, aimed at addressing the balance between resource-rich provinces and carbon reduction efforts [39]

Market Review - The equity market saw most indices rise last week, with the North Certificate 50 index showing the largest increase of 3.13% [5][6] - The bond market experienced an overall pullback, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 4.42 basis points to 1.679% [11][12] - The fund market reflected a positive trend, with the equity fund index and secondary bond fund index both rising, while the long bond fund index saw a slight decline [14] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on the first humanoid robot sports event in Wuxi, with recommended funds such as Huaxia Intelligent Manufacturing Upgrade A (016075) and Jiashi Technology Innovation (007343) [18] - Asset allocation strategy suggests a balanced core and barbell strategy, emphasizing dividend and technology sectors, with recommended funds including Anxin Dividend Select (018381) and Huaxia Innovation Frontier (002980) [21][22] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - Market analysis indicates a net withdrawal of 475.1 billion from the central bank's open market operations, leading to a tightening of the funding environment [24] - April inflation data showed a slight decline, with CPI down 0.1% year-on-year and PPI down 2.7% [24][25] - The social financing scale at the end of April was 424 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [25] Key Focus Products - Recommended products include Nord Short Bond (005350) and Guotai Lianan Medium and Short Bond (016947) for core strategies, while satellite strategies may include fixed income + funds like Anxin New Value (003026) [30]

证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 5 月 20 日 股债商冲高回落 市场情绪有所回稳 本周债券市场整体表现平稳，中美债券利差短期缓幅回升， 伴随着美关税政策的短期回归温和，美债利率有所上行，对 国债市场产生一定挤占。但降准于本周落地，为市场带来万 亿资金，受此影响，债券收益率持续下行，整体价格仍能够 维持高位。 债市配置建议：整体看，债市短期仍能够维持高位区间，具 备一定配置价值。而短债的灵活性，使得其更易受到市场青 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号： S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号 山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址： 【20250512-20250518】 核心观点 大类资产总览：股债商冲高回落，周内震荡。 本周，A 股前半周大幅拉升后高位震荡，周四回落，周内震 荡幅度加大，降准落地后，短期市场暂无刺激性政策落地， 市场情绪有所缓和，权益产品短期或将迎来高位震荡；债市 整体表现相对平稳，在市场资金流动性较大的情况下，债市 短期仍然无需过多担心，高位震荡仍是债券市场近期的主 流；大宗商品市场冲高回 ...

煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 北港库存创新高，锚地船舶数量骤降 【2025.5.5-2025.5.11】 行业评级：中性 核心观点 发布日期：2025.5.13 大同证券研究中心 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 北港库存创新高，动力煤价继续下行。本周，在煤炭产区供应 维持高位、北港库存居高不下、需求疲软影响下，以及南方逐 渐进入雨季水电将增发，煤炭价格继续下行。 焦煤价格稳中有降，焦钢库存继续下降。本周，炼焦煤供应宽松、 需求疲软，下游刚需维持高位，焦煤矿库存略有回升，下游焦 煤库存处于中低位，支撑短期煤价。 权益市场以涨为主，煤炭板块跑输指数。本周，5 月 7 日，国 新办召开发布会，"一行一局一会" 介绍了一揽子金融政策 支持稳市场稳预期，包括降准降息、持续支持"两新"项目、 优化两项支持资本市场的货币政策 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance of major asset classes shows that stocks and bonds continue to rise, while commodities are experiencing a downturn [1][8] - A-shares saw significant gains in the first half of the week, supported by multiple economic policies announced by the central bank and regulatory bodies, which enhanced market liquidity [2][11] - The bond market is benefiting from the recent interest rate cuts, leading to a decrease in yields and an increase in prices, indicating a favorable short-term outlook [3][34] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to enter a "honeymoon period" with a high probability of steady upward movement due to strong domestic policy support and improved international conditions [2][13] - The technology sector is likely to see a rebound due to policy support aimed at enhancing liquidity for small and medium-sized tech enterprises [11][12] - The consumer sector remains promising, with ongoing policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand expected to continue driving market momentum [12][13] Group 3 - The commodity market is facing downward pressure, primarily driven by the decline in gold prices, which had previously supported the market [6][37] - Short-term recommendations suggest reducing exposure to gold due to its recent overvaluation, while maintaining a cautious approach to other commodities [41][37] - The bond market is viewed as having strong short-term value, particularly in short-duration bonds, as they are more favored by the market [5][34]

Policy Overview - The report outlines a comprehensive package of three categories and ten policy measures aimed at stabilizing market expectations and enhancing liquidity[1] - Key sectors benefiting from these policies include technology and consumption, which are prioritized for support and investment[1] Quantity Policies - A reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity into the market[6] - The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and financial leasing companies will be lowered from 5% to 0%, targeting the struggling automotive sector[2] Price Policies - The policy interest rate will be reduced by 0.1 percentage points, lowering the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points[6] - Structural monetary policy tool rates will be cut by 0.25 percentage points, including a reduction in the re-lending rate for small and agricultural enterprises from 1.75% to 1.5%[5] Structural Policies - An increase in the quota for technology innovation and technical transformation re-lending from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, supporting key sectors[5] - A new 500 billion yuan re-lending facility for service consumption and elderly care is established to encourage banks to increase credit support in these areas[5] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include the possibility that policy effects may not meet expectations and changes in the domestic economic landscape could exceed forecasts[4]