Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is under pressure due to weak supply and demand, with market expectations turning pessimistic as some traders are selling at low prices [6][13] - The coal sector's performance is lagging behind the overall equity market, despite a general market uptrend [7][42] - The focus remains on coal companies with high dividend yields, as the sector's net profits are expected to decline [42] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market saw an overall increase, with the coal sector's performance trailing behind, as the coal index rose only 1.64% compared to the broader market indices [7][10] - Major coal companies reported lower expected net profits for 2024 compared to the previous year, indicating a general weakness in the coal sector [7][42] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices are facing downward pressure due to weak demand from downstream industries and high inventory levels at power plants [13][14] - The average price for thermal coal at various production sites has decreased, with significant drops noted in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi [14][18] - Port inventories of thermal coal have increased, reflecting a lack of strong demand from downstream buyers [19][20] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continue to decline, with market sentiment remaining pessimistic as some regions have initiated price reductions for coke [26][27] - The supply side is expected to tighten as coal mines prepare for holiday shutdowns, but demand remains weak due to seasonal factors [26][30] - The overall inventory levels for coking coal are high, which may continue to suppress prices in the short term [30] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim ports has increased, but remains at historical lows, while shipping rates continue to decline [36][38] - The average shipping rates for coal from Qinhuangdao to various ports have decreased, indicating a softening in the shipping market [36] Industry News - In 2024, China imported 54,269.7 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [37] - The Xinjiang railway has successfully transported over 90 million tons of coal, showcasing the region's economic resilience [37] - Shandong province is planning large-scale coal power projects to enhance energy supply stability [39]

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced significant gains, with over 5,000 stocks closing in the green. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.54% to close at 3,240.94 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.77% to 10,165.17 points, and the ChiNext Index surged by 4.71% to 2,075.76 points. The total trading volume exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan [2][4]. Sector Performance - All sectors in the Shenwan I-level industry index saw gains, with the leading sectors being Computer (+6.14%), Media (+5.72%), and Machinery Equipment (+5.68%). Other notable sectors included Automotive (+4.97%) and Retail (+4.82%) [6][4]. Trading Activity - A total of 5,328 stocks rose, accounting for 96.07% of the market, with 160 stocks hitting the daily limit up. The total trading volume reached 1,159.93 million shares, with a turnover of 13,507.01 billion yuan [5][4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [43]. Core Viewpoints - The coal market is experiencing a rebound in electricity coal prices, with short-term price increases expected due to supply constraints and seasonal demand from downstream power plants [4][10]. - The coal sector is recommended for low-position investment as the dividend yield of coal indices exceeds 6.4%, making it attractive compared to the 1.6% yield of ten-year government bonds [5][41]. - The focus is on high cash flow and high return coal stocks, especially those influenced by dividend guidance and market capitalization management [41]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal industry showed a good fundamental performance with tightening supply expectations as the year-end approaches, while demand was supported by cold weather in southern regions [5]. - The overall equity market performed poorly, with the coal sector experiencing a significant decline of 5.17% [5]. Supply and Demand Structure - The supply of thermal coal is expected to contract due to seasonal factors and safety inspections, leading to a continued price rebound [10]. - Downstream demand remains weak, with power plants showing stable coal consumption but high inventory levels [16]. Price Trends - The price of thermal coal has seen a slight increase, with specific prices reported for various regions, such as Inner Mongolia at 583 CNY/ton and Shanxi at 647 CNY/ton [11][25]. - The focus on price stability is evident as traders exhibit strong price support ahead of the Spring Festival [10]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are under pressure, with the sixth round of price reductions for coke fully implemented, and further declines in coking coal prices are anticipated [24]. - The demand for coking coal is weak due to reduced steel production and construction activity [24]. Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim ports has increased slightly, but shipping rates continue to decline, indicating a weak shipping market [33]. Industry News - Several coal enterprises have been recognized for their smart factory projects, and there are ongoing efforts to combat illegal mining activities [36]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is working on establishing a unified energy market system [36].

Core Insights - The report indicates a mixed performance in the market with the three major indices showing volatility, where the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rose by 0.02% to close at 3230.17 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices fell by 0.54% and 0.98% respectively [2][4] - The total trading volume in the two markets exceeded 1.2 trillion, indicating a recovery in market activity [2][4] Market Performance - On January 8, 2025, the major indices experienced fluctuations, with the ChiNext index dropping over 3% at one point before recovering slightly in the afternoon [2] - The number of stocks that rose was 1,974, while 3,249 stocks declined, showing a bearish sentiment overall [4] Sector Performance - The report highlights that the household appliances sector led the gains with a rise of 2.23%, followed by the comprehensive sector at 1.94% and machinery equipment at 0.76% [5] - Conversely, the non-ferrous metals sector fell by 1.33%, steel by 1.20%, and basic chemicals by 1.14%, indicating significant losses in these areas [5] Policy Updates - The report mentions the implementation of a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, which includes subsidies for eight categories of household appliances [3] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced the upcoming launch of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Composite Index on January 20, 2025, aimed at reflecting the overall performance of the Sci-Tech board [3]

证券研究报告——市场日报 三大指数终止下行走势 超 4000 只个股上涨 证券研究报告——市场日报 2025.01.07 （预计发布时间：2025.01.08） 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址: http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 行情回顾 周二（1 月 7 日），三大指数早盘低开， 短暂拉升翻红后震荡回落走绿，午后触底反 弹，震荡拉升，三大指数悉数翻红，尾盘收涨。 截至收盘，上证指数（+0.71%）收报 3229.64 点，深证成指（+1.14%）收报 9998.76 点，创 业板指（+0.70%）收报 2028.36 点。两市量能 回落至 1 万亿（数据来源：Wind）。申万Ⅰ级 行业多数上涨，仅医药生物、煤炭、公用事业 下跌，电子、综合、通信领涨。 风险提示 量能大幅回落引发市场扰动 当日要闻 多地披露发行计划 2025 年专项债将靠前发力。末年初，多地已陆续披露 2025 年一季度地 方债发行计划。截至 1 月 6 日，已披 ...

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 电煤价格触底反弹，红利板块防御属性强 【2024.12.30-2025.1.5】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 发布日期：2025.1.6 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 动力煤短期价格触底反弹，寒潮来临冬储煤需求增加。本周， 煤炭主产区停产减产增多，供应减少，叠加预期下游需求继续 走高，煤炭坑口价格小幅探涨；下游需求短期仍处于高位，电 厂日耗增长较为平缓，库存下降速度较为缓慢，整体看终端需 求高位震荡。短期看，寒潮来临，南方用电量提高，增加对电 煤需求，对煤价有一定支撑，在无较大利空的情况下，或难出 现较大回落。 焦煤库存位于较高区间，需求预期有望支撑价格坚挺。焦煤供 给短期处于高位，虽终端需求有所提振，但在淡季背景下采购 需求有限，对过高的库存依然难以消化。在楼市企稳回升政策 引领 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced a decline for three consecutive days, with the Shanghai Composite Index narrowly holding above 3200 points, closing at 3211.43 points, down 1.57% [2][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9897.12 points, down 1.89%, while the ChiNext Index closed at 2015.97 points, down 2.16% [2][4] - The total trading volume in the two markets decreased to 1.26 trillion yuan [2] Sector Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industry indices, most sectors declined, with only non-ferrous metals, coal, and petroleum and petrochemicals showing slight increases [2][5] - Non-ferrous metals rose by 0.26%, coal by 0.02%, and petroleum and petrochemicals by 0.01% [5] - The worst-performing sectors included commercial retail, down 5.49%, computers, down 4.96%, and social services, down 4.88% [5] Trading Dynamics - A total of 609 stocks rose, while 4,724 stocks fell, indicating a significant market downturn [4] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit down was 118, while 54 stocks reached the daily limit up [4] - The market's overall performance reflected a weak sentiment, with a net outflow of funds from several sectors [5]

证券研究报告——市场日报 三大指数大幅走低 沪指跌破 3300 点 证券研究报告——市场日报 2025.01.02 （预计发布时间：2025.01.03） 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 大扩容！8 只信用债 ETF 同日获批。8 只信用债 ETF 获批。2024 年最后一个交易日，风头正 劲的 ETF 市场再度传来扩容消息。此前 8 家公募上报的信用债 ETF 均已拿到批文，有望于 2025 年正式开启发行。（消息来源：东方财富） 中国结算：对证券、基金、保险公司互换便利所涉证券质押登记费实施优惠措施。据中国结 算消息，为更好支持证券、基金、保险公司互换便利（SFISF）顺利开展，公司决定，对在中 国结算办理的所有涉及 SFISF 的证券质押登记费实施减半收取的优惠措施，其中，港股通证 券质押登记费以所质押股数（份额）为基础收取。本通知自发布之日起实施。（消息来源： 东方财富） 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 网址: http://www.dtsbc. ...

向新而行 盯紧股市楼市"风向标" 大同证券研究中心 邮箱：wangxiao@dtsbc.com.cn 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 邮箱：zhangkf@dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示：政策效果不及预期、贸易环境恶化、地缘政治风险超预期加剧 2024年12月26日 ✓ 2025年宏观经济展望：中国经济在财政货币双宽松政策的支撑下名义增速有望回升。出口不确定性增强，但"新 三样"等结构性亮点仍存；投资仍是经济增长的重要支撑，制造业投资在"两重"政策的支持下有望维持高位， 地方化债后，"城市更新"将为基建投资注入新动能，地产投资在系列政策的支持下降幅或将收窄，对经济的拖 累将有所缓解；消费在"两新"政策扩围、居民信心回升后释放预防性储蓄的消费潜力下将迎来复苏。2025年价 格水平将出现合理回升，但绝对水平依然不强。在稳定就业，提振消费，整治"内卷式"竞争、稳住楼市股市等 政策的支持下，将打破"物价工资收缩"及"资产负债收缩"的负循环，进而推动各类价格水平实现合理回升。 ✓ 股市：指数方面牛市可期，政策面已经转向，效果及反映至基本面或有一定时滞。因此，2025年上半年或为政策 面、情绪面驱动的结 ...

2024.12.19 （预计发布时间：2024.12.20） 大同证券研究中心 指、创指收红。截至收盘，上证指数（-0.36%） 10649.03 点，创业板指（+0.52%）收报 2213.54 三大指数分化 两市量能持续回落 证券研究报告——市场日报 风险提示 量能持续回落引发市场扰动 证券研究报告——市场日报 之后沪指全天弱势震荡，深指、创指午后大幅 收报 3370.03 点，深证成指（+0.61%）收报 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 点。两市量能持续回落，跌破 1.5 万亿（数据 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 来源：Wind）。申万Ⅰ级行业多数下跌，通信、 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 行情回顾 当日要闻 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 证券研究报告——市场日报 指数表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|------------|-----------------------|----------------|-------|-- ...