证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 电煤价格触底反弹，红利板块防御属性强 【2024.12.30-2025.1.5】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 发布日期：2025.1.6 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 动力煤短期价格触底反弹，寒潮来临冬储煤需求增加。本周， 煤炭主产区停产减产增多，供应减少，叠加预期下游需求继续 走高，煤炭坑口价格小幅探涨；下游需求短期仍处于高位，电 厂日耗增长较为平缓，库存下降速度较为缓慢，整体看终端需 求高位震荡。短期看，寒潮来临，南方用电量提高，增加对电 煤需求，对煤价有一定支撑，在无较大利空的情况下，或难出 现较大回落。 焦煤库存位于较高区间，需求预期有望支撑价格坚挺。焦煤供 给短期处于高位，虽终端需求有所提振，但在淡季背景下采购 需求有限，对过高的库存依然难以消化。在楼市企稳回升政策 引领 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced a decline for three consecutive days, with the Shanghai Composite Index narrowly holding above 3200 points, closing at 3211.43 points, down 1.57% [2][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9897.12 points, down 1.89%, while the ChiNext Index closed at 2015.97 points, down 2.16% [2][4] - The total trading volume in the two markets decreased to 1.26 trillion yuan [2] Sector Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industry indices, most sectors declined, with only non-ferrous metals, coal, and petroleum and petrochemicals showing slight increases [2][5] - Non-ferrous metals rose by 0.26%, coal by 0.02%, and petroleum and petrochemicals by 0.01% [5] - The worst-performing sectors included commercial retail, down 5.49%, computers, down 4.96%, and social services, down 4.88% [5] Trading Dynamics - A total of 609 stocks rose, while 4,724 stocks fell, indicating a significant market downturn [4] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit down was 118, while 54 stocks reached the daily limit up [4] - The market's overall performance reflected a weak sentiment, with a net outflow of funds from several sectors [5]

证券研究报告——市场日报 三大指数大幅走低 沪指跌破 3300 点 证券研究报告——市场日报 2025.01.02 （预计发布时间：2025.01.03） 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 大扩容！8 只信用债 ETF 同日获批。8 只信用债 ETF 获批。2024 年最后一个交易日，风头正 劲的 ETF 市场再度传来扩容消息。此前 8 家公募上报的信用债 ETF 均已拿到批文，有望于 2025 年正式开启发行。（消息来源：东方财富） 中国结算：对证券、基金、保险公司互换便利所涉证券质押登记费实施优惠措施。据中国结 算消息，为更好支持证券、基金、保险公司互换便利（SFISF）顺利开展，公司决定，对在中 国结算办理的所有涉及 SFISF 的证券质押登记费实施减半收取的优惠措施，其中，港股通证 券质押登记费以所质押股数（份额）为基础收取。本通知自发布之日起实施。（消息来源： 东方财富） 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 网址: http://www.dtsbc. ...

向新而行 盯紧股市楼市"风向标" 大同证券研究中心 邮箱：wangxiao@dtsbc.com.cn 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 邮箱：zhangkf@dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示：政策效果不及预期、贸易环境恶化、地缘政治风险超预期加剧 2024年12月26日 ✓ 2025年宏观经济展望：中国经济在财政货币双宽松政策的支撑下名义增速有望回升。出口不确定性增强，但"新 三样"等结构性亮点仍存；投资仍是经济增长的重要支撑，制造业投资在"两重"政策的支持下有望维持高位， 地方化债后，"城市更新"将为基建投资注入新动能，地产投资在系列政策的支持下降幅或将收窄，对经济的拖 累将有所缓解；消费在"两新"政策扩围、居民信心回升后释放预防性储蓄的消费潜力下将迎来复苏。2025年价 格水平将出现合理回升，但绝对水平依然不强。在稳定就业，提振消费，整治"内卷式"竞争、稳住楼市股市等 政策的支持下，将打破"物价工资收缩"及"资产负债收缩"的负循环，进而推动各类价格水平实现合理回升。 ✓ 股市：指数方面牛市可期，政策面已经转向，效果及反映至基本面或有一定时滞。因此，2025年上半年或为政策 面、情绪面驱动的结 ...

2024.12.19 （预计发布时间：2024.12.20） 大同证券研究中心 指、创指收红。截至收盘，上证指数（-0.36%） 10649.03 点，创业板指（+0.52%）收报 2213.54 三大指数分化 两市量能持续回落 证券研究报告——市场日报 风险提示 量能持续回落引发市场扰动 证券研究报告——市场日报 之后沪指全天弱势震荡，深指、创指午后大幅 收报 3370.03 点，深证成指（+0.61%）收报 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 点。两市量能持续回落，跌破 1.5 万亿（数据 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 来源：Wind）。申万Ⅰ级行业多数下跌，通信、 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 行情回顾 当日要闻 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 证券研究报告——市场日报 指数表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|------------|-----------------------|----------------|-------|-- ...

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 短期回落无需过多担心 中长期煤炭板块不悲观 【2024.12.09-2024.12.15】 核心观点 行业评级：看好 发布日期：2024.12.17 -30.00 -20.00 -10.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 2023-07-072023-08-072023-09-072023-10-072023-11-072023-12-072024-01-072024-02-072024-03-072024-04-072024-05-072024-06-072024-07-072024-08-072024-09-072024-10-072024-11-072024-12-07 沪深300 煤炭指数 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 煤炭行情走势图 ◆ 动力煤短期价格回落，冬季需求平稳无需过多担心。近 ...

Market Overview - On December 16, 2024, the three major indices showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index remaining flat, while the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices experienced declines [4][5][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3386.33 points, down by 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.30% to 10573.92 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.51% to 2201.53 points [8][9][10] - The total trading volume across both markets was approximately 1.7 trillion yuan [10] Sector Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top performers included Social Services (+1.98%), Retail (+1.87%), and Utilities (+1.56%), while the worst performers were Construction Materials (-2.24%), Electronics (-1.78%), and Computers (-1.59%) [12][22] - The overall market saw 1,766 stocks rise, 131 remain flat, and 3,475 decline, indicating a challenging trading environment [19] Key News - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has mandated brokerages to conduct self-inspections regarding margin trading, client transactions, and investment banking operations, aiming to identify and rectify weak management areas [15] - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11-12 has drawn significant attention, with discussions focusing on boosting consumption and the economic outlook for 2024 [15] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has emphasized the importance of maintaining market stability and enhancing the adaptability of the issuance and listing system [15]

Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference held on December 11, 2024, acknowledged the internal and external challenges facing the economy and proposed measures such as dual monetary and fiscal easing to boost consumption[1] - The expected fiscal deficit rate is around 4%, with special bonds projected at CNY 4.5 trillion and additional special treasury bonds estimated at CNY 2 trillion[1] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has shifted from "prudent" to "moderately loose" for the first time in 14 years, with explicit mentions of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[1] - In 2024, two reserve requirement ratio cuts of 100 basis points and two OMO rate cuts of 40 basis points are anticipated, along with two MLF rate cuts of 60 basis points[1] Stock Market Stability - The conference emphasized the importance of stabilizing the stock market and proposed innovative financial tools to facilitate long-term capital inflow[1] - The central bank has already introduced swap facilities and repo buyback loans to stabilize the stock market, with expectations for a more substantial stabilization fund in 2025[1] Investment Opportunities - The focus on expanding domestic demand highlights new opportunities in consumer sectors, particularly in 3C electronics and scenario-driven consumption[2] - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative is expected to drive high-quality development and create significant investment opportunities in technology sectors[2] Industry Reforms - The conference indicated a commitment to reform state-owned enterprises and promote private sector growth, which may yield short-term investment opportunities in state-owned enterprises[2] - The emphasis on addressing "involution" in overcapacity industries suggests potential rebounds in sectors like photovoltaics[2]

Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on December 9, 2024, set a more proactive tone for economic growth policies in 2025, exceeding market expectations[3] - The anticipated fiscal deficit rate is around 4%, with special bonds totaling CNY 4.5 trillion and additional special treasury bonds expected to reach CNY 2 trillion[3] - Monetary policy has shifted from "prudent" to "moderately loose," marking the first such change in 14 years, which is expected to provide strong liquidity support for economic growth in 2025[3] Consumption and Demand - The emphasis on boosting consumption has been elevated, with policies aimed at significantly increasing domestic demand, contrasting with last year's focus on technology innovation[3] - The government plans to expand the scope of the "old for new" consumption policy and may introduce additional measures such as direct cash transfers to stimulate consumer spending[3] Market Stability - The stock and real estate markets are expected to stabilize, supported by a combination of loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures, leading to a potential "slow bull" market for A-shares in 2025[3] - Recent data indicates a recovery in the real estate market, with sales showing signs of improvement following the easing of restrictions and lower mortgage rates[3] Risk Management - The meeting highlighted the importance of addressing external shocks and managing risks in key areas such as local debt and real estate, particularly in light of pressures from U.S. policies[3] - The government aims to stabilize market expectations and enhance economic vitality through a series of policy measures designed to mitigate risks and promote sustained economic recovery[5]

证券研究报告——市场日报 2024.12.05 （预计发布时间：2024.12.06） 周四（12 月 05 日），三大指数早盘低开， 快速拉升翻红后再度翻绿，之后再度拉升后保 持震荡，午后行情回落，三大指数下行翻绿后 大同证券研究中心 尾盘上行翻红，全天宽幅震荡，小幅收红。截 分析师：景剑文 至收盘，上证指数（+0.12%）收报 3368.86 点， 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 深证成指（+0.29%）收报 10634.49 点，创业 板指（+0.36%）收报 2221.46 点。两市量能再 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 度回落，跌破 1.5 万亿（数据来源：Wind）。 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 申万Ⅰ级行业多数上涨，传媒、社会服务、计 A 座 F12、F13 算机领涨，石油石化、综合、食品饮料领跌。 网址: http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 三大指数宽幅震荡 两市量能跌破 1.5 万亿 证券研究报告——市场日报 行情回顾 风险提示 量能持续收缩引发市场扰动 当日要闻 国家发改委：支持地方结合实际出台促进冰雪旅游消费举措 探索设立地方冰雪日 ...