请仔细阅读报告最后的重要法律申明 第 1 页 共 11 页 证券研究报告｜基金配置周报 2025 年 05 月 22 日 证券研究报告｜基金配置周报 2025 年 05 月 22 日 | | 世界人形机器人运动会召开在即，应如何布局？ | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【20250512-20250518】 | | | ◼ | 市场回顾：上周权益市场多数指数收涨，北证 50 涨幅最大，上 | | | | 涨 3.13%；债券市场整体回调，10 年期国债到期收益率上行 | 大同证券研究中心 | | | 4.42BP，期限利差小幅走阔，长短端 AAA 信用利差走势不一； | 分析师：杨素婷 | | | 基金市场中偏股基金指数和二级债基指数均周度收涨，而长债 | 执业证书编号： | | | 基金指数有所回调，短债基金指数收涨；申万 31 个行业涨多 | S0770524020002 | | | 跌少，TMT 板块集体回调。 | 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn | | ◼ | 权益类产品配置策略： | | | ➢ | 事件驱动策略：（1）首届具身智能机器人运动会在无锡开幕， | 地 ...

证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 5 月 20 日 股债商冲高回落 市场情绪有所回稳 本周债券市场整体表现平稳，中美债券利差短期缓幅回升， 伴随着美关税政策的短期回归温和，美债利率有所上行，对 国债市场产生一定挤占。但降准于本周落地，为市场带来万 亿资金，受此影响，债券收益率持续下行，整体价格仍能够 维持高位。 债市配置建议：整体看，债市短期仍能够维持高位区间，具 备一定配置价值。而短债的灵活性，使得其更易受到市场青 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号： S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号 山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址： 【20250512-20250518】 核心观点 大类资产总览：股债商冲高回落，周内震荡。 本周，A 股前半周大幅拉升后高位震荡，周四回落，周内震 荡幅度加大，降准落地后，短期市场暂无刺激性政策落地， 市场情绪有所缓和，权益产品短期或将迎来高位震荡；债市 整体表现相对平稳，在市场资金流动性较大的情况下，债市 短期仍然无需过多担心，高位震荡仍是债券市场近期的主 流；大宗商品市场冲高回 ...

煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 北港库存创新高，锚地船舶数量骤降 【2025.5.5-2025.5.11】 行业评级：中性 核心观点 发布日期：2025.5.13 大同证券研究中心 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 北港库存创新高，动力煤价继续下行。本周，在煤炭产区供应 维持高位、北港库存居高不下、需求疲软影响下，以及南方逐 渐进入雨季水电将增发，煤炭价格继续下行。 焦煤价格稳中有降，焦钢库存继续下降。本周，炼焦煤供应宽松、 需求疲软，下游刚需维持高位，焦煤矿库存略有回升，下游焦 煤库存处于中低位，支撑短期煤价。 权益市场以涨为主，煤炭板块跑输指数。本周，5 月 7 日，国 新办召开发布会，"一行一局一会" 介绍了一揽子金融政策 支持稳市场稳预期，包括降准降息、持续支持"两新"项目、 优化两项支持资本市场的货币政策 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance of major asset classes shows that stocks and bonds continue to rise, while commodities are experiencing a downturn [1][8] - A-shares saw significant gains in the first half of the week, supported by multiple economic policies announced by the central bank and regulatory bodies, which enhanced market liquidity [2][11] - The bond market is benefiting from the recent interest rate cuts, leading to a decrease in yields and an increase in prices, indicating a favorable short-term outlook [3][34] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to enter a "honeymoon period" with a high probability of steady upward movement due to strong domestic policy support and improved international conditions [2][13] - The technology sector is likely to see a rebound due to policy support aimed at enhancing liquidity for small and medium-sized tech enterprises [11][12] - The consumer sector remains promising, with ongoing policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand expected to continue driving market momentum [12][13] Group 3 - The commodity market is facing downward pressure, primarily driven by the decline in gold prices, which had previously supported the market [6][37] - Short-term recommendations suggest reducing exposure to gold due to its recent overvaluation, while maintaining a cautious approach to other commodities [41][37] - The bond market is viewed as having strong short-term value, particularly in short-duration bonds, as they are more favored by the market [5][34]

Policy Overview - The report outlines a comprehensive package of three categories and ten policy measures aimed at stabilizing market expectations and enhancing liquidity[1] - Key sectors benefiting from these policies include technology and consumption, which are prioritized for support and investment[1] Quantity Policies - A reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity into the market[6] - The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and financial leasing companies will be lowered from 5% to 0%, targeting the struggling automotive sector[2] Price Policies - The policy interest rate will be reduced by 0.1 percentage points, lowering the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points[6] - Structural monetary policy tool rates will be cut by 0.25 percentage points, including a reduction in the re-lending rate for small and agricultural enterprises from 1.75% to 1.5%[5] Structural Policies - An increase in the quota for technology innovation and technical transformation re-lending from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, supporting key sectors[5] - A new 500 billion yuan re-lending facility for service consumption and elderly care is established to encourage banks to increase credit support in these areas[5] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include the possibility that policy effects may not meet expectations and changes in the domestic economic landscape could exceed forecasts[4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Recommendation" (maintained) with a current price of 9.51 [1] Core Views - The company reported a high gross profit margin in coal production, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 60% as expected [3][8] - The coal production business saw a target output of 33 million tons in 2024, with an actual output of 32.98 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.40% [4] - The company actively implemented cost control measures, resulting in a decrease in coal production costs and maintaining a gross profit margin above 50% despite declining revenues [4][9] Summary by Sections Company Basic Data - The company's stock price ranged from 9.42 to 16.46 over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 18.853 billion [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 29.561 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.268 billion, down 46.75% [5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 4.502 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 29.17%, and a net profit of 255 million, down 56.29% [5] Cost Management - The company managed to reduce coal production costs significantly, with the cost per ton of coal at 131.85 yuan, a decrease of 41.17% year-on-year [4][10] - Long-term borrowings increased to 5.193 billion in 2024, up 11.64% year-on-year, while financial expenses decreased due to lower borrowing costs [10] Shareholder Returns - The company has a shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, aiming for a cash dividend ratio of no less than 60% of the distributable profits [8] Future Outlook - The company expects coal prices to continue fluctuating downward, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 at 1.891 billion, 2.114 billion, and 2.336 billion respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Recommendation (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The company reported a high gross profit margin in coal production, with a dividend payout ratio of 60% meeting expectations [3][4] - The company has implemented refined management to maintain high gross profit margins despite a decrease in revenue due to a relaxed supply-demand situation in the coal industry [4][9] Summary by Sections Company Basic Data - The company's stock price over the past 52 weeks ranged from 9.42 to 16.46, with a total market capitalization of 188.53 billion and a total share capital of 1.98 billion shares [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company aimed for a raw coal production target of 33 million tons, achieving 32.98 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.40%. Sales volume was 26.73 million tons, down 23.31%, with revenue of 17.266 billion, a decrease of 27.45% [4] - For Q1 2025, raw coal production was 9.0864 million tons, up 20.92% year-on-year, while sales volume was 4.4155 million tons, down 19.15%. Revenue was 2.624 billion, a decrease of 27.45% [4] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.255 billion for Q1 2025, down 56.29% year-on-year [5] Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced coal production costs, with the cost per ton of coal at 249.79 yuan, down 0.55% year-on-year, and a gross profit margin of 52.29%, a decrease of 6.57 percentage points [4] - In Q1 2025, the cost per ton of coal was 131.85 yuan, a significant decrease of 41.17% year-on-year, contributing to a gross profit margin of 54.34%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points [4] Shareholder Returns - The company has a shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, aiming for a cash dividend ratio of no less than 60% of the distributable profits. The proposed cash dividend for 2024 is approximately 1.368 billion yuan [8] Future Outlook - The company expects coal prices to continue to fluctuate downward, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 at 1.891 billion, 2.114 billion, and 2.336 billion respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.95, 1.06, and 1.18 yuan per share [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Views - The thermal coal price continues to decline due to weak demand in the off-season and high inventory levels, while coking coal prices are supported by stable supply and a second round of price increases for coke [5][11][27] - The coal sector underperformed the market index, with the coal index down 0.63% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 0.56% [6][7] - The market sentiment remains weak, but there is potential for price recovery as temperatures rise and summer demand increases [12][27] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Supply and demand are loose, leading to a continued decline in thermal coal prices. The average utilization rate of 100 thermal coal mines is 91.1%, with a slight increase of 0.9% [11] - The price of thermal coal at production sites has decreased, with specific prices reported: Inner Mongolia's Q5200 at 451 CNY/ton, Shanxi's Q5500 at 519 CNY/ton, and Shaanxi's Q5500 at 460 CNY/ton [13][16] - The daily consumption of coal by power plants is 1.82 million tons, which is historically low, indicating weak demand [19] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are stable, with the first round of price increases for coke implemented, raising prices by 50-55 CNY/ton [27][28] - The average utilization rate of 88 coking coal mines is 87.4%, indicating stable supply [27] - The steel industry shows signs of recovery, with a profit margin of 57.58% and a high operating rate of 84.35% for blast furnaces [27][34] Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed the broader market, with significant fluctuations in individual stock performances [6][7] - The average daily trading volume in the market is 1.1 trillion CNY, with financing buy-ins around 88 billion CNY [6][7] Industry News - The coal industry is seeing advancements in digital transformation and clean utilization technologies, which may enhance overall competitiveness [12][41][42] - The launch of the "MineGuard AI" project aims to improve safety in mining through intelligent risk management [41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The thermal coal price continues to decline due to weak demand in the off-season, while coking coal prices are supported by a second round of price increases for coke [3][5][11] - The coal sector underperformed the market index, with the coal index down 0.63% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 0.56% [6][7] - The market sentiment remains weak, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and high inventory levels [5][12] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Supply and demand are loose, leading to a continued decline in thermal coal prices. The average utilization rate of 100 thermal coal mines is 91.1%, with a slight increase of 0.9% [11] - The price of thermal coal at production sites continues to drop, with significant declines noted in various regions. For instance, the price of Q5500 thermal coal in Shanxi is 519 CNY/ton, down 6 CNY/ton week-on-week [13][16] - The demand for thermal coal remains weak, with daily consumption at southern power plants at 1.764 million tons, a slight increase from the previous week [19] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are stable, with the first round of price increases for coke implemented, raising prices by 50-55 CNY/ton [3][28] - The average utilization rate of 88 sample coking coal mines is 87.4%, indicating stable supply conditions [27] - The steel industry shows signs of recovery, with the profit margin at 57.58%, which supports the demand for coking coal [27][34] Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed the broader market, with the coal index down 0.63% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% [6][7] - The average daily trading volume in the market is 1.1 trillion CNY, with financing buy-ins around 88 billion CNY [6] - The political bureau meeting proposed measures to stabilize and activate the capital market, which has not yet formed a clear market direction [6][7] Shipping and Logistics - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim has decreased, with an average of 83 vessels, down 7 from the previous week [38] - Shipping rates show mixed trends, with some routes experiencing price increases while others decline [38] Industry News - The coal industry is seeing advancements in green mining technologies, with significant breakthroughs reported in Shanxi [41] - The launch of the "MineGuard AI" project aims to enhance safety in mining through intelligent risk management [41] - The coal sector is focusing on digital transformation and improving overall competitiveness through new technologies [12][41]

Market Review - The equity market showed mixed performance last week, with the ChiNext Index rising the most by 1.74%, while the Northbound 50 Index fell by 2.16% [5][6] - Among the 31 sectors, advanced manufacturing collectively rebounded, with notable gains in automotive (4.87%), beauty care (3.80%), and basic chemicals (2.71%) [5][6] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on funds related to new generation information technology and high-end equipment manufacturing, such as Huaxia Intelligent Manufacturing Upgrade (016075) and Jiashi Technology Innovation (007343) [15][16] - The optimization of the departure tax refund policy is expected to boost domestic consumption, with funds like ICBC New Generation Consumption (005526) and Huaxia Consumption Selection (017719) being highlighted [15][16] - The AACR annual meeting will feature many Chinese pharmaceutical companies, suggesting potential interest in funds like ICBC Medical Health (006002) and Tianhong Medical Innovation (010654) [15][16] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The central bank's continued net injection of liquidity and stable LPR rates indicate a supportive monetary environment, with March industrial profits turning positive, signaling economic recovery [20][21] - The central bank's MLF operation of 600 billion yuan aims to maintain liquidity, which is crucial for upcoming bond issuances [22] - Convertible bonds are noted for their dual characteristics, with current median prices around 1200, indicating potential allocation value despite high valuation risks [22][23] Fund Market Performance - The偏股基金指数 (equity fund index) rose by 1.90%, while the secondary bond fund index increased by 0.22%, reflecting a positive trend in the equity market despite some volatility in the bond market [12][13] - The short-term bond index remained stable, while the medium to long-term bond index saw a slight decline of 0.05% [12][13] Key Focus Products - Recommended funds include Nord Short Bond (005350) and Guotai Li'an Medium and Short Bond (016947) for stable returns, while funds like Anxin New Value (003026) and Southern Glory (002015) are suggested for those looking to capitalize on equity market opportunities [3][27]