行 业 研 究 电 子 [table_product] 相关研究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月23日 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] 1.兆易创新（603986.SH）： 利基存储价格有望继续回暖， 增资长鑫产能或有保障——公 司简评报告 1. 国产DUV光刻机重大突破，消费 电子新品密集发布有望拉动行业景 气度——电子行业周报 （20240909-20240915） 2. 华为官宣Mate XT预热新品发布 会，IFA 2024掀起AI热潮——电子 行业周报（20240902-20240908） 3. 英伟达二季度业绩持续超预期， IDC调高全年手机交付同比增幅—— 电子行业周报（20240826- 20240901） 模组价格承压 [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle] 半导体高能氢离子注入技术突破，存储 ——电子行业周报2024/9/16-2024/9/22 [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 电子 ...

行 业 研 究 非 银 金 融 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月23日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -25% -20% -14% -9% -3% 2% 8% 23-09 23-12 24-03 24-06 24-09 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.航母级券商蓄势启航，预定利率分 阶段下调启动——非银金融行业周 报（20240902-20240908） 2.从国君合并海通，看头部整合示范 效应下的航母级券商启航——非银 金融行业简评 3.从国信收购万和，看券商并购趋势 从业务互补迈向国资整合——非银 金融行业简评 ➢ 保险：延迟退休催化养老保障需求，新"国十条"指明高质量发展方向。1）近期延迟退 休政策落地，基本养老保险领取期延后所带来的中短期保障需求持续提升，保险产品兼具 保障和储蓄双重属性，又以独特的保本能力而持续凸显优势，在长端利率低位震荡与理财 产品预期收益下滑的背景下，销售 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月23日 [证Ta券b分le析_A师uthors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈涛 cht@longone.com.cn 二级市场表现：上周食品饮料板块上涨0.19%，沪深300指数上涨1.32%，食品饮料板块 在31个申万一级板块中排名第24位。子板块方面，上周各板块除白酒下跌0.79%外均上涨， 其中零食板块涨幅最大为4.93%。个股方面，上周涨幅前五为莫高股份、*ST皇台、加加 食品、惠发食品、水井坊，分别上涨17.51%、16.33%、14.36%、12.50%、10.32%。跌 幅前五为ST通葡、劲仔食品、日辰股份、仙乐健康、贵州茅台，分别下跌6.77%、4.14%、 3.54%、3.40%、3.08%。 [相ta关bl研e_究product] 1.旺季批价波动，关注需求复苏—— 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2024/9/2-2024/9/8） 2.千味央厨（001215）：大B积极开 拓腰部客户，小B承压期待后续改善 ——公司简评 ...

晨 会 纪 要 2024年09月23日 晨会纪要20240923 证券分析师： 伍可心 S0630522120001 wkx@longone.com.cn 重点推荐 1.R22配额削减，三代制冷剂配额政策延续，看好制冷剂景气向上——基础化工行业简评 2.上证指数短线或有反弹需求——技术分析上证指数简评 财经要闻 1.中国9月1年期、5年期LPR保持不变 2.北京市：优化房地产政策 适时取消普通住宅和非普通住宅标准 3.财政部公布1-8月财政收支情况 4.日本央行暂停加息 利率维持不变 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | 正文目录 | | | | | | 1. 重点推荐. 1.1. R22 配额削减，三代 ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月20日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@email.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 [上证指数 Table_NewTitle]短线或有反弹需求 ——技术分析上证指数简评 ➢ 核心观点：上证指数短线或有反弹需求。上证指数目前处于前期低点2635点支撑位附近， 短线支撑较为有力。日线、周线连日超跌后，指数于2024年9月19日携量上破5日均线，大 单资金有介入迹象，说明做多力量活跃，指数短线或有反弹动能。但指数日线趋势向下尚 未扭转，短线均线尚未多头排列，彻底扭转向下的趋势，短时间内较难完成。指数短线或 有反弹动能，但目前并不强势，上方均线压力重重，与企稳仍有差距。指数若运行到上方 各重要均线压力位附近，仍需谨慎观察。 [相关研究 Table_Report] 1. 《波浪里前行 上证指数目前或处 于黎明的曙光中——运用波浪理论 对上证综指技术分析》 2. 《上证指数或酝酿反弹动能—— 技术分析上证指数系列》 ➢ 上证指数本波段已经有一定的跌幅， ...

行 业 研 究 基 础 化 工 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月19日 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 张晶磊 S0630524090001 zjlei@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 马小萱 mxxuan@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -35% -28% -21% -14% -7% 0% 7% 23-09 23-12 24-03 24-06 24-09 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.R32剩余配额分配，制冷剂长期景 气仍将持续——氟化工行业月报 2.原材料价格回调，需求保持稳定— —轮胎行业月报（2024年7月） 3.巨化股份（600160）：制冷剂价格 上行，公司业绩有望持续提升——公 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Bullish" with expectations that the CSI 300 index will rise by 20% or more in the next six months [9]. Core Insights - Domestic tourism continues to show stable growth, with 107 million domestic travelers during the Mid-Autumn Festival, a 6.3% increase compared to 2019. Domestic tourism revenue reached 51.047 billion yuan, an 8.0% increase from 2019 [6]. - The transportation sector saw significant activity, with over 620 million cross-regional movements during the holiday, averaging 21 million daily, a 31.1% increase from 2023 and a 16.1% increase from 2019 [6]. - The popularity of domestic cultural tourism is rising, driven by the success of the game "Black Myth: Wukong," with car rental orders in Shanxi province increasing by 16% compared to the Dragon Boat Festival [6]. - The film industry also performed well, with a box office of 389 million yuan during the Mid-Autumn Festival, with domestic films accounting for 85.35% of the total [6]. Summary by Sections Tourism Data - The Mid-Autumn Festival saw 107 million domestic travelers, with tourism revenue at 51.047 billion yuan, reflecting stable growth despite adverse weather conditions [6]. - Transportation data indicates a robust increase in travel, with rail and road travel showing significant year-on-year growth [6]. OTA Insights - Domestic cultural tourism is gaining traction, with a notable increase in travel orders in specific regions [6]. - The trend towards short trips is evident, with 76% of users opting for 2-3 day itineraries during the holiday [6]. Future Outlook - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to see a surge in outbound and long-distance travel, with a 70% increase in visa applications compared to last year [7]. - Predictions indicate a potential decrease in travel costs due to high demand and competitive pricing, with over 60% of travelers planning long-distance trips [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the upcoming holiday, particularly OTA and scenic spots, as the industry outlook remains positive [7].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.75% to 5.0%[2] - The rate cut exceeded market expectations, but Chairman Powell's comments on future rate cuts led to asset price volatility[2] - The dot plot indicates potential rate cuts of 25 basis points in November and December, with a total of 100 basis points in 2025, subject to uncertainty due to the U.S. election[2][3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The unemployment rate forecasts for 2024-2026 were raised to 4.4%, 4.4%, and 4.3%, up from previous estimates of 2.8%, 2.3%, and 2.0%[3] - Core PCE inflation expectations for 2024 and 2025 were lowered to 2.6% and 2.2%, down from 2.8% and 2.3%[3] - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 was reduced to 2.0%, down from 2.1%[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - Asset prices showed significant volatility following the FOMC meeting, with shifts in equities, the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and gold[3] - There are risks of underpricing recession expectations and ignoring potential core inflation rebounds, particularly if unemployment triggers the Sam Rule[3] - Key risks include inflation uncertainty, global economic and geopolitical risks, and dollar liquidity risks[3]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - In August, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.1% year-on-year, with a total of 38,726 billion yuan, which was below the consensus expectation of 2.7% [6][7] - The sales growth in rural areas outpaced urban areas, with rural retail sales growing by 3.9% compared to 1.8% in urban areas [6][7] - Online consumption maintained rapid growth, with online retail sales of goods and services increasing by 8.9% and 8.1% year-on-year, respectively [6][7] Group 2: Electric Vehicle Industry - In August, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 1.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30% and a month-on-month increase of 11% [11] - The export of new energy vehicles was 110,000 units in August, maintaining a high growth trend [11] - The overall market for new energy vehicles is expected to reach 11.5 million units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% [11] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical and biological sector saw a decline of 2.55% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.32 percentage points [14] - The sector's PE valuation is currently at 22.2 times, which is at a historical low [14] - Recent policy changes, such as the expansion of cross-provincial direct settlement for outpatient chronic diseases, are expected to benefit related companies and patients [15][16] Group 4: Automotive Industry - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 1.44%, with the overall market showing signs of recovery due to the "old-for-new" policy and the upcoming peak sales season [18][19] - In August, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.027 million units, a year-on-year increase of 43% [19] - Domestic brands captured 63.4% of the market share, with significant growth from companies like BYD, Chery, and Geely [19] Group 5: Renewable Energy Industry - The silicon material prices remain stable, while the prices of battery components are under pressure [22] - The wind power sector is seeing an increase in bidding and project initiation, indicating a stable market environment [23][24] - Companies like Daikin Heavy Industries and Oriental Cable are well-positioned to benefit from the growth in offshore wind projects [24]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Neutral" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [39]. Core Insights - In August 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,726 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, which is below the consensus expectation of 2.7% [7][11]. - The consumption market continues to show stable growth, with both urban and rural markets maintaining growth, and online consumption sustaining rapid growth [7][11]. - Urban retail sales amounted to 33,575 billion yuan, growing by 1.8% year-on-year, while rural retail sales reached 5,151 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.9%, surpassing urban growth by 2.1 percentage points [11][12]. - Online consumption outperformed offline consumption, with online retail sales of goods and services growing by 8.9% and 8.1% year-on-year, respectively [11][12]. Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - The retail sales in August 2024 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with total sales at 38,726 billion yuan, which is lower than the expected growth of 2.7% [7][11]. Category Performance - Both dining and retail sales increased year-on-year, with dining services totaling 4,351 billion yuan, up 3.3%, and retail sales of goods at 34,375 billion yuan, up 1.9% [15][21]. - Essential and other categories showed steady growth, while discretionary consumption confidence remained weak, particularly in real estate-related spending [17][21]. Price Performance - In August 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.8% [23][29]. - Food prices saw significant increases, with fresh vegetables and fruits rising by 21.8% and 4.1% year-on-year, respectively [23][29]. Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate in August 2024 was 5.3%, a slight increase from the previous month [31][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders in the liquor industry due to increased competition and pressure on demand [37]. - In the cosmetics sector, companies like Proya and Juzhibio are highlighted as strong performers, suggesting a focus on these alpha stocks [37].