行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年08月07日 行 业 深 度 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 联系人 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -28% -20% -13% -5% 2% 10% 18% 23-08 23-11 24-02 24-05 申万行业指数:石油石化(0775) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.原油紧张或触及年内高点，龙头主 导的下游周期属性或将弱化——原 油及聚酯产业链月报（2024年7月） 2.原油市场下半年展望——石油石 化行业简评 3.原油供需走弱，聚酯及下游仍推荐 一体化标的——原油及聚酯产业链 月报（2024年6月） [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 国际油服公司 ] 加入并购大 ...

公 司 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年08月07日 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 杜永宏 S0630522040001 dyh@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 伍可心 S0630522120001 wkx@longone.com.cn 联系人 付婷 futing@longone.com.cn | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------| | 数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2024/08/06 | | 收盘价 | 36.22 | | 总股本(万股) | 41,849 | | 流通A股/B股(万股) | 41,718/0 | | 资产负债率(%) | 39.14% | | 市净率(倍) | 2.72 | | 净资产收益率(加权) | 4.16 | | 12个月内最高/最低价 | 63.09/30.43 | [Table_QuotePic] -44% -30% -16% -2% 12% 26% 40% 54% 23-08 2 ...

需求维持高位，看好制冷剂景气延续 氟化工行业月报 证券分析师：吴骏燕 执业证书编号：S0630517120001 联系人：张晶磊 联系方式：zjlei@longone.com.cn 证券分析师：谢建斌 执业证书编号：S0630522020001 联系人：马小萱 联系方式：mxxuan@longone.com.cn 2024年08月06日 目 录 一、核心观点 二、制冷剂跟踪 三、含氟聚合物 四、行业重要新闻 五、投资建议 六、风险提示 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 核心观点 ● 7月三代制冷剂价格涨跌不一，二代制冷剂价格持续上行，含氟聚合物价格保持低位运行。 截至2024年7月31日，根据百川 盈孚数据，三代制冷剂R32、R134a、R125产品价格分别为37000元/吨、31500元/吨和31500元/吨，较6月底分别变动 2.78%、5.00%、-8.70%；R22价格为30500元/吨，较6月底上升1.67%，较2024年初上涨56.41%；价差较6月底提升 4.81%，受产能快速提升、需求增速下滑影响，2024年我国PTFE、P ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) due to significant events [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that Changan Automobile's wholesale sales in July 2024 were 170,600 units, showing a month-on-month decline of 17.86% and a year-on-year decline of 24.17%. Cumulative wholesale sales from January to July 2024 reached 1,504,700 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.71% [10]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong performance in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, with July 2024 NEV sales reaching 45,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 59.80% [11]. - The strategic partnership with Huawei is progressing, with expectations for a final agreement by August 31, 2024, which is anticipated to accelerate the company's transition to smart electric vehicles [12]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In July 2024, Changan's total wholesale sales were 170,600 units, with a significant drop in self-owned passenger vehicle sales to 97,100 units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 28.07% [10]. - The cumulative sales for Changan Ford and Changan Mazda also showed mixed results, with Ford's sales increasing by 18.53% month-on-month, while Mazda's sales decreased [10]. New Energy Vehicles - The NEV penetration rate for Changan's self-owned brands reached 32.64% in July 2024, with cumulative NEV sales of 344,500 units from January to July 2024 [11]. - The launch of the Deepal S07, featuring Huawei's ADS 3.0, is expected to enhance sales in the NEV segment [11]. Global Expansion - Changan's overseas sales in July 2024 were 25,400 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 67.65%. The company is expanding its presence in Latin America, with a recent product launch event in Mexico [10][12]. - The company aims to achieve overseas sales of 480,000 units in 2024, with a long-term goal of reaching 1.2 million units by 2030 [12]. Financial Projections - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 9.817 billion, 11.679 billion, and 14.185 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.99, 1.18, and 1.43 yuan [13]. - The projected PE ratios for the same period are 13, 11, and 9 times [13].

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年8月7日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20240807 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 黄涵虚 S0630522060001 hhx@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.原油需求或将走弱，聚酯及下游等待旺季修复——原油及聚酯产业链月报（2024年8月） ➢ 2.甘源食品（002991）：Q2淡季表现稳健，税收优惠净利率提升——公司简评报告 财经要闻 ➢ 1.工信部发布关于创新信息通信行业管理优化营商环境的意见 ➢ 2.国务院国资委、国家发改委印发《关于规范中央企业采购管理工作的指导意见》 ➢ 3.日本财务省、日本央行及金融厅举行三方会议 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock performance in the coming months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.042 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.14%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 167 million yuan, up 39.26% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenues of 456 million yuan, a 4.90% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 75 million yuan, reflecting a 16.79% year-on-year growth [1]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 34.94%, slightly down by 0.66 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 15.98%, up by 1.51 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company is focusing on product structure adjustments, with strong sales in lower-priced products contributing to revenue growth, despite a slight decline in gross margin [3]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 393 million yuan, 496 million yuan, and 616 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 19.52%, 26.09%, and 24.29% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 total revenue: 1.042 billion yuan (+26.14% YoY) - H1 2024 net profit: 167 million yuan (+39.26% YoY) - Q2 2024 revenue: 456 million yuan (+4.90% YoY) - Q2 2024 net profit: 75 million yuan (+16.79% YoY) [1][3] Profitability Metrics - H1 2024 gross margin: 34.94% (-0.66 pct YoY) - H1 2024 net margin: 15.98% (+1.51 pct YoY) [3] Revenue Breakdown - H1 2024 revenue by product categories: - Mixed nuts and beans: 342 million yuan (+48.54% YoY) - Green peas: 238 million yuan (+16.87% YoY) - Sunflower seeds: 138 million yuan (+12.76% YoY) - Broad beans: 122 million yuan (+12.00% YoY) - Other series: 197 million yuan (+24.16% YoY) [5] Sales Channels - H1 2024 revenue from distribution: 869 million yuan (+27.72% YoY) - H1 2024 revenue from e-commerce: 136 million yuan (+9.14% YoY) - H1 2024 revenue from other channels: 33 million yuan (+67.66% YoY) [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Bullish" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [127]. Core Insights - The report highlights that global oil prices are expected to remain relatively high, with Brent crude projected to fluctuate between $70 and $90 per barrel in 2024 [47][124]. - It emphasizes the importance of upstream resources and stable industry chain targets, recommending investments in companies like China National Petroleum and CNOOC due to their resource attributes [124]. - The report notes that the oil service industry is expected to maintain stable capital expenditure, with a focus on companies with advanced technology and significant overseas market potential [124]. Summary by Sections 1. Oil Price Review and Outlook - The report discusses the geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, including OPEC+ production cuts and the impact of U.S. shale oil production [40][46]. - It predicts that oil prices will experience fluctuations but remain supported by OPEC+ cuts and recovering global demand [40][47]. 2. Commodities, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates - The report indicates that the manufacturing PMI across major economies has weakened, which may impact domestic exports [124]. - It mentions that the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with potential downward pressure on domestic bond rates [124]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain - The report outlines the current state of the polyester industry, noting a decrease in PTA prices and a slight recovery in ethylene prices [93][97]. - It highlights the profitability challenges faced by non-integrated facilities in the polyester supply chain [93]. 4. Conclusion and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on upstream resource companies and oil service firms, as well as integrated refining and chemical companies that can leverage cost advantages [124]. - It suggests that the domestic textile and apparel industry is showing signs of weak recovery, with a focus on companies with strong integration capabilities [124].

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年8月6日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20240806 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 黄涵虚 S0630522060001 hhx@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | ➢ | 1. 美国 7 月就业走弱或许无法说明经济衰退——海外观察： 2024 年 7 月美国就业数据 | | ➢ | 2. 欧莱雅发布半年报，江苏吴中、华熙生物新进展——美容护理行业周报 (2024/7/29- 2024/8/2) | | ➢ | 3. 周期回暖、 AI 驱动海外各科技大厂 2024 第二季度业绩复苏——电子行业周报 （ 20240728-20240804 ） | | ➢ | 4. 新能源公交车补贴出台，储能行 ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年08月5日 行 业 周 报 电 力 设 备 与 新 能 源 [table_stockTrend] -51% -40% -29% -18% -7% 4% 15% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:电力设备(0763) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.成长性+稳健性兼备，电力改革助 推行业优势持续 ——电力行业深度 报告系列一 2.风光新增装机继续上升，硅片试探 性涨价 ——新能源电力行业周报 （2024/06/24-2024/06/28） 3.虚拟电厂调峰落地，构网型储能热 度提升——电池及储能行业周报 （20240624-20240630） [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 光伏硅料挺价迹象明显 ]，国内海风有望 迎来密集催化 ——新能源电力行业周报（2024/07/29-2024/08/04） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 市场表现： 本周（07/29-08/02）申万光伏设备板块下跌1.79%，跑输沪深300指数1.06个百分点， 申万风电设备 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2024年08月05日 [table_invest] 超配 [促Tabl消e_N费ewT扩itle]内需，信心逐步提振 ——食品饮料行业周报（2024/7/29-2024/8/2） [证Ta券b分le析_A师uthors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈涛 cht@longone.com.cn [相ta关bl研e_究product] 1.中报披露临近，把握业绩确定性机 会 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2024/7/22-2024/7/28） 2.Q2食饮板块持仓明显回落，关注底 部配置机会——食品饮料行业周报 （2024/7/14-2024/7/19） 3.绝味食品（603517）：深耕鸭脖主 业，单店提振进行时——公司深度报 告 [table_main] 投资要点： 二级市场表现：上周食品饮料板块下跌1.39%，沪深300指数下跌0.73%，食品饮料板块 在31个申万一级板块中排名第28位。子板块方面，上周除了白酒、乳品外各板块均上涨。 个股方面， ...