Group 1 - The report highlights that a series of policy measures have significantly boosted market confidence, with expectations of sustained policy support in the future [3][22][23] - The report indicates that the global liquidity turning point has arrived, with major central banks, except for the Bank of Japan, entering a rate-cutting cycle, which alleviates currency constraints [3][26] - The report suggests that the profit growth rate may rebound in the fourth quarter, as the current low profit growth is expected to be a bottom, with potential fiscal policy support [3][22][23] Group 2 - In the consumer sector, the report notes that the food and beverage industry is showing resilience, with policies stimulating confidence and a recovery in sales expected during the upcoming holiday season [28][30] - The report anticipates that pig prices will remain stable in the fourth quarter, with improved performance expected in the livestock sector due to seasonal demand [31] - The report emphasizes the importance of the tourism sector, with domestic travel showing growth during the National Day holiday, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [32] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of the beverage industry, particularly the beer sector, which is expected to benefit from cost reductions and a recovery in consumption scenarios [28][30] - The report highlights the potential for the dairy industry to improve due to government policies aimed at stabilizing milk production and promoting consumption [30] - The report identifies investment opportunities in high-end liquor brands and regional leaders within the liquor sector, suggesting specific companies to watch [28][30]

Key Recommendations - The continuation of the third-generation refrigerant policy is expected to drive an upward trend in the refrigerant industry, with prices for R32, R125, and R134a increasing by 7.04%, 10.17%, and 1.52% respectively as of September 30, 2024 [7][8] - The 2025 refrigerant quota draft indicates an increase in R32 supply, suggesting that refrigerant prices will remain on an upward trajectory due to reduced social inventory and stable demand for R22 in the maintenance market [8] - The demand for refrigerants is supported by rising household air conditioning production, with production volumes for October to December 2024 projected to be 11.77 million, 13.31 million, and 14.91 million units respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 23.95%, 24.00%, and 9.70% [8] Oil and Gas Resource Research - The market capitalization of oil and gas companies is significantly influenced by oil reserves and production levels, with a regression model indicating that these factors are primary determinants of company value [10][11] - Global oil and gas upstream merger and acquisition activity is robust, with 201 transactions in 2023 valued at $233.5 billion, marking a 163% increase year-on-year and reaching historical highs [10] - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $60 and $90 per barrel for the year, with short-term support at $65 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production cuts and U.S. rig count declines [10][11] Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to focus on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with comprehensive supply chains, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd., as well as raw material suppliers like Jinshi Resources [8] - For the oil and gas sector, attention should be given to state-owned enterprises like China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which possess strong resource reserves and refining capacities, despite lower ROE compared to international peers [11]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 一、成本端：原材料价格反弹，成本面支撑较强 二、生产端：产量总体维稳，全钢胎产能利用率小幅抬升 11 i 需求端：当前终端需求偏弱，四季度存向好预期 四、行业重要新闻 五、月度总结及展望 六、风险提示 最 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明 3 9 ● 9月轮胎上游原材料价格：2024年9月丁二烯均价13116.30元/吨，环比上涨5.93%，同比上涨57.15%；天然橡胶均价 1951.67美元/吨，环比上涨9.39%，同比上涨31.43%；丁苯橡胶均价15966.30元/吨，环比上涨7.07%，同比上涨 20.28%；炭黑均价8236.67元/吨，环比上涨6.59%，同比减少15.87%；锦纶帘子布均价21937.50元/吨，环比减少 1.40%，同比减少0.62%。 轮胎主要原材 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing significant events as the reason for this rating [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that Changan Automobile's wholesale sales in September 2024 reached 213,200 units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 9.98% but a year-on-year increase of 13.93%. Cumulative wholesale sales for the first nine months of 2024 totaled 1.905 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.89% [6]. - The report notes a recovery in exports, with overseas sales of the company's self-owned brands in September 2024 reaching 30,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 65.51% [6]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the company's new energy vehicles, with September sales reaching 54,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 45.96% [7]. - The report projects that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will be 8.740 billion, 10.896 billion, and 13.513 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.88, 1.10, and 1.36 yuan [8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September 2024, Changan's wholesale sales were 213,200 units, with a cumulative total of 1.905 million units for the first nine months, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.89% [6]. - The company's self-owned brand sales in September were 129,300 units, with cumulative sales of 1.161 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.51% [6]. Export and International Sales - The report indicates that the company's overseas sales of self-owned brands in September 2024 were 30,600 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 65.51% [6]. - The report also notes that overseas sales accounted for 18.16% of total self-owned brand sales [6]. New Energy Vehicles - The report states that the company's new energy vehicle sales reached 54,400 units in September 2024, with a cumulative total of 447,600 units for the first nine months, representing a year-on-year increase of 45.96% [7]. - The report highlights the launch of new models under the Deep Blue and Avita brands, which are expected to drive sales growth [7]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 8.740 billion, 10.896 billion, and 13.513 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.88, 1.10, and 1.36 yuan [8]. - The report also provides a valuation outlook, with PE ratios projected at 16, 12, and 10 times for the respective years [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the traditional coal chemical industry Core Viewpoints - The traditional coal chemical industry is characterized by the conversion of coal into gas, liquid, and solid products, which are further processed into chemical and energy products, emphasizing comprehensive utilization of coal [3] - The main products of the traditional coal chemical industry include synthetic ammonia (urea), coke, and calcium carbide, with significant roles in agriculture, steel production, and general plastics [3][47] - The report highlights the importance of synthetic ammonia and urea in agricultural applications, noting that urea accounts for over 60% of nitrogen fertilizer production in China [17][20] - The report indicates a stable increase in agricultural demand for urea, driven by rising grain prices and supportive agricultural policies [20] Summary by Sections Traditional Coal Chemical Industry Overview - The coal chemical industry is divided into traditional and modern sectors, with traditional products primarily including synthetic ammonia, coke, and calcium carbide [3] - The industry plays a crucial role in addressing fertilizer needs, supporting heavy industries, and providing low-cost plastic sources [3] Synthetic Ammonia - Urea - Synthetic ammonia production is primarily driven by agricultural demand, with 70% of its consumption used for fertilizers [14] - Urea consumption in China has surpassed 50 million tons recently, supported by favorable agricultural policies [17] - The report anticipates continued growth in agricultural urea demand due to stable planting areas and rising grain prices [20] Coke - Coke is essential for steel production, with 88% of its consumption used in metallurgical processes [47] - The report notes a significant correlation between steel prices and coke demand, indicating that economic conditions heavily influence the industry [49] - The domestic coke market has seen a reduction in imports and a slight decrease in exports, reflecting changing demand dynamics [51] Calcium Carbide - Calcium carbide is primarily used in producing acetylene and downstream chemical products, with PVC being a major application [71] - The report highlights the expected increase in demand for calcium carbide driven by the expansion of BDO production, although actual demand will depend on downstream market conditions [75] - The competition from ethylene-based production methods is noted as a potential challenge for calcium carbide-derived products [82]

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月09日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241009 [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.重视高涨情绪下增量资金入市推动的非银板块持续行情——非银金融行业周报 （20240930-20241006） ➢ 2."金九银十"新能源汽车如期热销，爆款车型集中提产加速交付——汽车行业周报 （2024/09/30-2024/10/06） ➢ 3.油气资源储备对油气上市公司市值影响的研究——原油研究系列（二十） 财经要闻 ➢ 1.国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍"系统落实一揽子增量政策 扎实推动经济向上结构向优、 发展态势持续向好"有关情况。 ➢ 2.国庆旅游消费表现较好。 ➢ 3.国务院总理李强主持国务院第十次专题学习。 ➢ 4.国务院总理李强主持召开经济形势专家和企业家座谈会。 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 联系人： 赵敏敏 zmmin@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WW ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - Domestic tourism during the National Day holiday saw a total of 765 million trips, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a 10.2% increase compared to 2019. The total tourism revenue reached 700.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% and a 7.9% increase from 2019 [6]. - The average per capita spending for domestic travel was 916 yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4% [6]. - The overall cross-regional mobility during the holiday reached 2.003 billion trips, averaging 286 million trips per day, which is a 3.9% increase compared to 2023 and a 23.1% increase compared to 2019 [6]. - The report highlights a significant rise in hotel bookings in nearly 100 county-level cities, with an increase of over 50% year-on-year [6]. - Young consumers, particularly those born after 2000, have become the main force in travel, accounting for nearly 20% of orders, surpassing older generations [6]. - The report suggests that the tourism industry is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting consumption, with a focus on sectors such as OTA, scenic spots, and hotels [7]. Summary by Sections Travel Data - The National Day holiday saw 765 million domestic trips, with tourism revenue at 700.82 billion yuan, reflecting growth compared to previous years [6]. - Daily average cross-regional mobility was 286 million trips, showing significant increases from both 2023 and 2019 [6]. OTA and Consumer Trends - There is a notable increase in hotel bookings in county-level cities, and younger consumers are leading the travel market [6]. - The average travel radius has decreased, indicating a trend towards slower-paced travel experiences [6]. Scenic Spots and Box Office - Major scenic spots reported significant increases in visitor numbers compared to previous years, with some locations seeing over 80% growth [7]. - The box office for the National Day holiday was 2.104 billion yuan, with domestic films accounting for nearly 96% of the total [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors that are likely to benefit from the anticipated increase in consumer spending, particularly in tourism-related industries [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the refrigerant industry, suggesting a high level of market activity and profitability for related companies in the coming years [3][89]. Core Insights - As of September 30, 2024, the prices of third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a have increased by 7.04%, 10.17%, and 1.52% respectively compared to the end of August, indicating a rising trend in refrigerant prices [3][7]. - The 2025 refrigerant quota draft has been released, which will increase the supply of R32, suggesting that refrigerant prices will continue to rise in the long term [3][86]. - The demand for refrigerants is supported by the increasing production of household air conditioners, with production expected to reach 11.77 million units in October 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.95% [3][55]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with a complete industrial chain, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd. [3][89]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights - The price of R22 has remained stable at 30,000 yuan/ton, with a significant increase of 53.85% since the beginning of 2024 [3][22]. - The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants are being reduced, which is expected to drive up prices [3][86]. 2. Refrigerant Tracking - The production rates for R32, R134a, and R125 have shown a decline in September 2024, with respective production rates of 44.14%, 43.67%, and 35.54% [14][33]. - The total inventory of R32, R134a, and R125 has decreased significantly since December 2023, indicating a tightening supply [16][38]. 3. Fluoropolymer Insights - Prices for fluoropolymers such as PTFE, PVDF, and HFP remain low due to rapid capacity increases and slowing demand growth [3][63]. - The production and inventory levels of fluoropolymers have remained stable, with slight fluctuations in output [75][79]. 4. Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has published a draft for the 2025 quota for ozone-depleting substances, which includes significant reductions in production quotas for certain refrigerants [86][88]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the refrigerant industry will maintain a high level of activity and profitability, particularly for companies that are leaders in the sector [89].

Investment Rating - The automotive sector is rated positively with an overall increase of 8.89% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index which rose by 8.48% [6][14]. Core Insights - The new energy vehicle (NEV) market saw record sales in September, with brands like BYD, Li Auto, and Leap Motor achieving significant year-on-year growth [6][12]. - BYD's sales reached 417,600 units in September, marking a 46% increase year-on-year, while Li Auto and Leap Motor reported increases of 49% and 114% respectively [12][23]. - The automotive parts sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing technological upgrades and partnerships with quality car manufacturers [7][12]. Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance this week included a rise in various sub-sectors: passenger vehicles increased by 8.76%, commercial vehicles by 8.82%, and automotive parts by 10.87% [6][14]. - The NEV sales data for September showed significant growth across multiple brands, with BYD leading the market [12][23]. Industry Data Tracking - NEV sales in September included 417,600 units for BYD, 53,700 for Li Auto, and 33,800 for Leap Motor, reflecting strong demand during the peak season [12][23][27]. - The dealer inventory warning index for September was reported at 54.0%, indicating a slight decrease in inventory levels compared to previous months [34]. New Model Tracking - New models launched this week include the BYD Tengshi Z9 GT and various models from Changan and Geely, indicating a robust pipeline of new products in the market [41].

行 业 研 究 非 银 金 融 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月08日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -28% -18% -9% 1% 10% 20% 29% 23-10 24-01 24-04 24-07 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.券商风控指标修订落地，新"国十 条"指明保险高质量发展方向——非 银 金 融 行 业 周 报 （ 20240916- 20240922） 2.航母级券商蓄势启航，预定利率分 阶段下调启动——非银金融行业周 报（20240902-20240908） 3.从国君合并海通，看头部整合示范 效应下的航母级券商启航——非银 金融行业简评 ➢ 保险：资产端弹性显著催化板块行情，关注资负同步改善下的可持续性配置机遇。1）资 产端来看，10Y国债收益率于9月30日收至2.15%，较近期低位上升11bps，最高点较低位 提升21bps（9月29日为2.25%），一定程 ...