美国关税风险排序 (摘要) 迪安竹 +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 权九勋, CFA +852-2978-0048 | goohoon.kwon@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 宋欣佳 +852-2978-0106 | chelsea.song@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 n 自2018-19年中美贸易战以来，中国占美国进口的份额有所下降。尽管如此，美国 对华贸易逆差仍超过美国对亚太地区（乃至全世界）其他经济体的贸易逆差规 模，我们预计中国将成为美国加征关税的主要目标对象。 n 鉴于现在距离美国当选总统特朗普的就职典礼只有一个多月时间，我们评估了美 国加征关税给中国以外亚太经济体带来的风险及其对亚太地区经济活动的潜在影 响。 n 面对美国关税施压，亚洲经济体可能采取的应对措施包括：1) 采取报复措施（对 于中国这样的大型经济体来说较为可行）；2) 增加购买美国商品，以缓解贸易不 平衡（将能源之类的一些大宗商品采购转向美国可能相对容易）；3) 采取措施放 宽对美国产品的市场准入限制（例如降低进口关税）；4) 调整汇率管理方 ...

1. 对于整个亚洲来说，2024年是具有里程碑意义的一年。日本央行结束了长达八年的 负利率政策，执政的自民党15年来首次在众议院选举中失去多数席位。短暂宣布戒严 的韩国总统目前正面临弹劾，加剧了国内政治僵局。中国截至目前最为严峻的房地产 市场低迷仍在持续，政策制定者时隔14年再提"适度宽松"。印度总理莫迪领导的印 度人民党/全国民主联盟在2024年初的选举中失利，印度储备银行也在进行高层改组。 就东盟国家而言，印尼和越南迎来了新的总统和国家主席，新加坡和泰国则迎来了新 总理。纵观整个区域，通胀已经消退，部分经济体的增长担忧升温，因此除日本央行 之外的许多央行都放松了货币政策。 图表 1: 美国最大的双边贸易逆差源自对华贸易，但与其他亚洲经济体的逆差也在增长 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 资料来源：Haver Analytics, 高盛全球投资研究部 资料来源：Haver Analytics, 彭博, 高盛全球投资研究部 3. 对于美国的潜在加征关税，中国似乎仍将首当其冲。我们 ...

全球经济分析 n 我们估算，在此前贸易战期间，美国对中国进口商品在产品层面的关税税率每提 高1个百分点已推动进口下降1-2%，这与学术研究显示关税的短期贸易弹性平均为 1.3%一致。在我们对关税的基线预测下，美国进口需求下降可能导致约1,000亿美 元商品重定向至其他经济体。 n 贸易战对通胀的影响将取决于诸多因素，包括其他国家是否采取报复措施、经济 增长放缓的程度以及汇率市场对关税作何反应。我们的估算显示，贸易重定向可 能会对美国以外发达市场的价格构成进一步下行压力，然而，这与我们总体鸽派 的汇率展望一致。 全球经济分析 We expect that the second Trump administration will deliver tariffs that raise the effective tariff rate on US imports from China by 20pp (driven by increases up to 60pp on the list 1-2 items from the 2018-2019 trade war). We also expect an increa ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The sentiment around the health of the US consumer has improved, reaching its highest level in nearly three years, with solid real income growth across various income groups [11][20]. - Companies are planning to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs through strategies such as passing costs to customers, stockpiling goods, and reshuffling supply chains [44][46]. - The labor market appears fully rebalanced, which is putting downward pressure on wage and price growth, with wage growth expectations around 3.5% [25][30]. Summary by Sections Economic Activity - Real revenues excluding energy grew by 4.6% year-over-year in Q3, marking the fastest pace since Q1 2022 [6][10]. - Earnings grew by 8% year-over-year, surpassing consensus expectations of 3% growth [6][10]. Consumer Spending - Consumer spending remains robust, with company commentary indicating that consumers are spending in a healthy manner despite pressures on lower-income households [11][20]. - Real retail spending among lower-income consumers has been positive over the last year, and the spending gap across income levels has narrowed [20][21]. Labor Market - The labor market is described as healthy but cooling, with companies reporting continued hiring and waning wage pressures, especially in lower-skilled service industries [25][30]. - Mentions of labor shortages and costs have decreased, returning to pre-pandemic levels [30][31]. Tariff Impact - Companies are preparing for potential tariff increases by planning to pass costs to consumers, stockpile goods, and adjust supply chains [44][46]. - Anecdotal evidence suggests that US imports from China have increased following the recent elections, indicating companies are already taking steps to mitigate tariff impacts [46][47].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a baseline scenario for China's 2025 economic outlook, with a real GDP growth forecast of 4.5%, down from 4.9% in 2024 [8][9] Core Views - Chinese policymakers are expected to lean against the wind to stabilize domestic consumption and the property market while managing renewed US-China trade tensions in 2025 [6] - The US effective tariff rate on Chinese goods is assumed to increase by 20pp, leading to a 0.7pp drag on China's real GDP in 2025 [7][9] - Policymakers are expected to cut policy rates by 40bp and expand the augmented fiscal deficit by 1.8pp of GDP in 2025 to counteract growth headwinds [9] Economic Growth and Drivers - China's real GDP growth is expected to decelerate from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025, with a shift in growth drivers from exports to policy support [8][9] - Exports, which contributed 70% of GDP growth in 2024, are expected to decelerate sharply in 2025 due to higher US tariffs, with total goods export volume remaining flat [8][50] - Consumption, especially goods consumption, is expected to outperform, while property investment declines continue [9] Inflation and Deflation - CPI and PPI inflation are projected to be 0.8% and 0%, respectively, in 2025, below consensus expectations [17] - Structural factors, including industrial overcapacity and weak consumer confidence, are expected to weigh on inflation [17] Property Market - The property sector is expected to remain a significant drag on growth, with a projected 2.0pp negative contribution to GDP in 2025 [41] - New home starts and government land sales revenue have declined by more than 70% and 60%, respectively, from their 2020-21 peaks [36] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to play a key role in 2025, with the augmented fiscal deficit widening by 1.8pp of GDP to 13.0% [76] - The PBOC is expected to cut policy rates by 40bp in 2025, with two 20bp cuts in Q2 and Q4 [86][100] Trade and Tariffs - Chinese exports to the US are expected to decline significantly in 2025, while exports to other countries may increase modestly [51] - The current account surplus is expected to decline to 1.6% of GDP in 2025 from 2.1% in 2024, driven by a narrower goods trade surplus and a wider services trade deficit [55] Labor Market and Consumption - The labor market remains weak, with youth unemployment reaching 18.8% in August 2024 [30] - Household consumption growth is expected to stay flat at 5.0% in 2025, supported by subsidy programs and potential wealth effects from the stock market [24][25] Long-Term Growth Outlook - China's real GDP growth is expected to average 3.5% from 2025 to 2035, significantly lower than the 9.0% average during 2000-2019 [4][14] - The leadership's focus on technology-driven and high-quality growth is expected to continue, with "technology" and "high-quality" becoming more frequently mentioned in policy speeches [13]

Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth is projected to decelerate to 4.5% in 2025 from 4.9% in 2024, influenced by property deleveraging and slower exports due to rising trade frictions with developed markets[2][9] - Nominal growth will be constrained by low inflation, with CPI at 0.8% and PPI at 0% for 2025, reflecting demand headwinds and stable global commodity prices[9][10] Market Performance - MSCI China and CSI300 are expected to appreciate by 15% and 13% respectively in 2025, driven by EPS growth forecasts of 7%-10%[2][4] - Housing sales are anticipated to decline by 9% in value and 4% in volume, extending a correction of 57% since 2021[9][10] Policy and Investment - A significant policy shift is underway, with augmented fiscal deficits projected to rise from 11.2% in 2024 to 13% in 2025 to support property destocking and consumption stimulus[2][21] - The government is expected to provide around RMB 8 trillion (approximately USD 1.1 trillion) in additional fiscal support, equating to 5.8% of 2025 GDP[21][26] Sector Insights - Consumption growth is forecasted to rebound to 5.0% in 2025, supported by targeted fiscal spending and improvements in service-oriented sectors[9][10] - The healthcare and broker sectors have been upgraded to Overweight, reflecting a broad consumption tilt in investment portfolios[2][4] Earnings Projections - Profit growth for MSCI China and CSI300 is forecasted at 7% and 10% respectively, below consensus estimates due to tariff risks impacting revenue and profitability[36][42] - Revenue growth is expected to align with nominal GDP growth, projected at 6% for 2025[36][42]

Economic Growth and Policy - China's real GDP growth is expected to decelerate from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025 due to increased US tariffs and domestic challenges[7][8] - Policymakers are anticipated to cut policy rates by 40bp and expand the augmented fiscal deficit by 1.8pp of GDP in 2025[7] - The property sector is projected to weigh on GDP growth by 2.0pp in 2025, continuing its multi-year drag[40] Trade and Tariffs - US effective tariff rate on Chinese goods is expected to increase by 20pp, reducing China's real GDP by 0.7pp in 2025[7][9] - Chinese exports to the US are likely to decline significantly, while exports to other countries may increase modestly, keeping total goods export volume flat[50][54] Inflation and Consumption - CPI and PPI inflation are forecasted to be 0.8% and 0% respectively in 2025, below consensus expectations[14][69] - Household consumption growth is expected to remain flat at 5.0% in 2025, supported by ongoing subsidy programs but weighed down by declining house prices[21][22] Labor Market and Wages - Youth unemployment reached 18.8% in August 2024, reflecting weak labor market conditions[27] - Urban wage growth slowed to 2.6% in Q3 2024, with expectations of modest improvement in 2025[31][32] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The augmented fiscal deficit is expected to widen by 1.8pp of GDP to 13.0% in 2025, driven by increased local government special bond issuance[80] - The PBOC is likely to cut the 7-day OMO rate to 1.1% by end-2025, with additional RRR cuts expected to support fiscal expansion[109] Property Market - New home starts and government land sales revenue have declined by more than 70% and 60% respectively since the 2020-21 peak[34] - Recent housing easing measures may stabilize home prices in some large cities, but the nationwide property downturn is expected to persist[39][40]

Summary of the Conference Call on Moncler and Burberry Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the luxury goods industry, specifically focusing on Moncler and Burberry, two prominent brands in this sector [3][5]. Key Points and Arguments Moncler and Burberry Acquisition Discussion - Moncler is reportedly considering a bid for Burberry, although Moncler has not confirmed this and labeled it as an unsubstantiated rumor [5][7]. - The Burberry brand is perceived to be undervalued in the market, with a need for a successful brand elevation strategy to unlock its true value [5][6]. - Moncler’s acquisition of Burberry could create a strong outerwear brand with opportunities to expand into ready-to-wear (RTW) and leather goods, diversifying Moncler's offerings beyond puffer jackets [7][8]. Financial Implications of the Acquisition - An acquisition would likely require significant share issuance, estimated at approximately £4.35 billion (€5.2 billion) to cover a 50% premium on Burberry's share price [14]. - Moncler would need to leverage the combined business to about 3.9x EBITDA for an all-cash takeover, which is considered risky in the current market environment [14]. - The financial feasibility of returning Burberry to historical EBIT margins (14.1%) by 2026 is crucial to avoid dilution of Moncler's earnings per share (EPS) [16][21]. Risks and Challenges - The acquisition could distract Moncler from its ongoing transformation of Stone Island, which is still in its early stages and requires further investment [8]. - There is a risk of cross-cannibalization between Moncler and Burberry due to differences in product pricing and market positioning, but this is viewed as manageable [7]. - The potential for Burberry's new collection under Daniel Lee to underperform poses a risk to the brand's turnaround strategy [34]. Strategic Partnerships - LVMH has recently taken a stake in Moncler, which could facilitate a partnership in the acquisition of Burberry, providing financial backing and strategic support [15][16]. Market Ratings - Bernstein rates Burberry, LVMH, and Moncler as "Outperform," indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the luxury goods market [25]. Additional Important Information - The discussion highlights the importance of brand positioning and the need for a realistic pricing strategy for Burberry to regain investor confidence [5][6]. - The luxury goods market is currently facing challenges, including shifts in consumer preferences and economic uncertainties, which could impact growth trajectories for both Moncler and Burberry [34][37]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the potential acquisition of Burberry by Moncler, the financial implications, risks involved, and the overall market outlook for the luxury goods industry.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - The upcoming US election is pivotal for economic policy, with contrasting views from candidates on tariffs, taxes, and regulation, which could have significant macroeconomic implications [2][5] - Despite differing proposed economic policies, the report suggests that asset impacts may be modest if major policy tail risks are avoided, with a friendly macro outlook being a more significant market driver [2][7] Summary by Sections Economic Policies Overview - The report highlights the stark differences in economic policy approaches between the candidates, particularly in trade and tax policy, with insights from economists on both sides [7][15] - Kevin Hassett emphasizes the need for expanding tariffs on China due to unfair trade practices, while Jared Bernstein advocates for targeted tariffs to protect consumers and domestic producers [11][17] Trade Policy - Hassett supports reciprocal tariffs to ensure fairness in trade relationships, while Bernstein warns against sweeping tariffs that could harm consumers and lead to retaliation [12][17] - The report discusses the potential global inflation and growth impacts of tariffs, particularly on China, and the implications for US monetary policy [7][17] Tax Policy - Hassett argues for extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and maintaining lower corporate tax rates, while Bernstein supports raising the corporate tax rate to 28% to ensure fiscal sustainability [13][18] - The report mentions the proposed global minimum tax of 15% as a means to combat tax avoidance by multinationals, which both economists view as essential [19] Broader Economic Outlook - The report notes a lowered probability of a US recession, with job growth and inflation trends being closely monitored [4] - It highlights the importance of addressing market failures in affordable housing and childcare as key issues for the next administration [16][21]

Research 证券研究报告 | 2024年10月16日 | 12:07AM HKT CHINA RESILIENCE 聚焦中国高韧性企业 –腾讯控股 (0700.HK) 超级应用构筑生态系统，游戏业务布局全球 (摘要) | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...