Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for global economic growth in 2026, projecting a growth rate of 2.8%, which is above the market consensus of 2.5% [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the global economic growth in 2026 will benefit from a loose financial environment, reduced policy uncertainty, AI investments, and fiscal stimulus from tax and spending legislation passed in 2025 [1][2] - It emphasizes the resilience of the Indian economy, forecasting a GDP growth rate of 6.7% for 2026, which is higher than global consensus expectations [10] - The report notes that China needs to find new growth engines beyond real estate and expand into emerging markets outside the U.S., with actual export growth expected to remain at 5% to 6% annually [6][14] Summary by Sections Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth is expected to exceed market consensus, driven by a favorable financial environment and AI investments [1][2] - Inflation pressures in emerging markets are anticipated to ease, aided by falling oil prices and reduced food price pressures [1] U.S. Economic and Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates twice in the first half of 2026, supported by fiscal stimulus from the 2025 tax and spending legislation [3][2] Asian Economic Conditions - The report expresses optimism about the overall economic situation in Asia, with median and average growth rates around 5% [4] - It highlights strong performance in AI chip exports from China and India, which is expected to exceed market consensus [4] China’s Economic Transition - China is projected to maintain a 5% to 6% annual growth in actual exports, with a current account surplus expected to rise to 4.2% of GDP [6][14] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on integrating AI with manufacturing and modern industrial infrastructure, indicating a sustained investment in AI technologies [15] Japan’s Economic Outlook - Japan's growth rate is forecasted at 0.8% for 2026, supported by rising wages and easing inflation [7] - The Bank of Japan may accelerate interest rate hikes, with a potential increase of 25 basis points in July 2026 [7] India’s Economic Trends - India is expected to show strong resilience with a projected GDP growth rate of 6.7% for 2026, driven by rural and urban consumption recovery [10][12] - The Reserve Bank of India has implemented measures to support economic growth, including interest rate cuts and liquidity measures [9]

Investment Rating - The report projects a real GDP growth of 4.8% for 2026, which is above the consensus expectation of 4.5% [7]. Core Insights - China's manufacturing competitiveness and rare earth controls are expected to drive export volumes growth of 5-6% annually [7]. - The current account surplus is projected to be 4.2% of GDP, significantly higher than the consensus of 2.5% [7]. - Although the property market has not yet bottomed, its negative impact on GDP growth is expected to lessen [7]. - Government consumption growth is anticipated to increase, compensating for weak household consumption in 2026 [7]. - Investment is expected to rebound from 2025 to 2026 [7]. Economic Growth - The report anticipates a gradual reflation process in China, with PPI inflation expected to rise from -2.6% in 2025 to -0.7% in 2026 and headline CPI inflation increasing from 0% in 2025 to 0.6% in 2026 [7]. - The fiscal deficit is projected to widen by 1.2 percentage points of GDP, reaching 12.2% in 2026 [33]. Policy Outlook - The report expects a 20 basis points cut in policy rates and a year-end USDCNY exchange rate of 6.85 [7]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan continues to prioritize manufacturing, technology, and security [7]. Investment Trends - Investment growth is expected to rebound in 2026 due to policy support and a low base effect [42]. - The report highlights that the high-tech sector is projected to contribute an average of 1 percentage point to real GDP growth over the next five years [59].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Xiaomi Corp. with a 12-month target price of HK$53.50, indicating an upside potential of 38.0% from the current price of HK$38.76 [15][17]. Core Insights - Xiaomi is positioned as the world's 3 smartphone brand and a leading consumer AIoT/NEV platform, with a multi-year ecosystem expansion strategy under the "Human x Car x Home" framework, projecting revenue and EPS CAGRs of 24% and 28% respectively from 2024 to 2027 [13]. - The company plans to invest Rmb200 billion in R&D from 2026 to 2030, focusing on AI, assisted driving, and chipset development to enhance its competitive edge [7][14]. Summary by Sections Smartphone Segment - Xiaomi aims to increase the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones by raising prices for premium models and optimizing product structure, targeting a 1 percentage point annual market share increase in China [7][8]. - The company expects revenue growth in 2026 to be supported by government consumption subsidies and overseas expansion, while maintaining gross profit margin (GPM) at or above 2025 levels by reducing low-margin categories [8] AIoT Segment - The AIoT segment is seen as a profit stabilizer, with a revenue growth of approximately 20% year-over-year and a contribution of around 30% to overseas revenue by Q3 2025 [3][10]. - Xiaomi plans to expand its Mi Home store count to over 1,000 by 2026 and increase the contribution of large home appliances to its revenue [10]. Smart EV Segment - Xiaomi targets 550,000 unit deliveries for its smart EVs in 2026, up from over 410,000 in 2025, driven by increased manufacturing capacity and new model launches [9][11]. - The company focuses on the premium auto segment, which captures a significant profit pool, and plans to export EVs to Europe starting in 2027 [11][12]. R&D Investments - AI accounts for approximately 25% of Xiaomi's R&D budget, with plans to increase investments while leveraging AI for ecosystem empowerment and internal operations [14]. - Xiaomi has made significant progress in assisted driving technology and aims to release new features in 2026, alongside a commitment to self-developing chips for its smart EVs [14]. Share Buyback - In 2025, Xiaomi repurchased 150 million shares for a total consideration of HK$6.3 billion, indicating confidence in its stock value [14].

Investment Ratings - The report assigns Buy ratings to Tokyo Electron, Ebara, Disco, and Ulvac, while Kokusai Electric and Lasertec are rated Neutral, and Screen Holdings and Tokyo Seimitsu are rated Sell [2][4][21]. Core Insights - Strong demand for semiconductor capital equipment is driven by AI applications, particularly in memory and advanced logic sectors, leading to a positive outlook for 2026 [1]. - Earnings estimates for semiconductor capital equipment (SPE) companies have been revised upward due to increased forecasts for AI server units and TSMC's capital expenditures [1]. - The report highlights a 7% average increase in 12-month target prices for the covered companies [1]. Company Summaries Tokyo Electron - Rated Buy, expected to benefit from increased investment in memory, especially DRAM [2]. - Target price raised to ¥43,000 from ¥38,000, representing a 15% upside from the current price [21]. Ebara - Rated Buy, poised to gain from the rise in CMP layers in advanced logic and TSMC's capital expansion [2]. - Target price increased to ¥5,200 from ¥5,000, indicating a 28% upside [21]. Disco - Rated Buy, expected to benefit significantly from generative AI semiconductor packaging, particularly with silicon bridge technology [9]. - Target price raised to ¥62,000 from ¥61,000, reflecting a 14% upside [21]. Ulvac - Rated Buy, seeing strong orders from China and Taiwan foundries alongside increased memory investment [2]. - Target price increased to ¥8,400 from ¥7,700, indicating a 12% upside [21]. Kokusai Electric - Rated Neutral, with expectations of a V-shaped earnings recovery due to high exposure to memory, but limited benefits from TSMC's investment in advanced technologies [3]. - Target price raised to ¥5,000 from ¥4,400, reflecting a 14% downside [21]. Lasertec - Rated Neutral, with limited near-term order benefits from the adoption of new products [3]. - Target price increased to ¥27,000 from ¥24,000, indicating an 18% downside [21]. Screen Holdings - Rated Sell, with expectations of limited profit margin improvements due to low exposure to memory and declining sales to emerging customers [4]. - Target price raised to ¥13,300 from ¥12,200, reflecting a 17% downside [21]. Tokyo Seimitsu - Rated Sell, with profit margins expected to remain capped due to high material costs [11]. - Target price increased to ¥8,700 from ¥8,500, indicating a 26% downside [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the Japan Industrial Electronics sector, including Anritsu, Panasonic HD, Hitachi, Sumitomo Electric, Fujikura, SWCC, Mitsubishi Electric, and Daihen. Furukawa Electric and Fuji Electric are rated as "Neutral" [7]. Core Insights - The Japan Industrial Electronics sector is poised for growth driven by technological advancements in AI server power and optics, with companies like Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric, and Panasonic actively developing new business models to leverage AI's importance [1][12]. - The report anticipates that the implementation of physical AI in social infrastructure will gain momentum, with conglomerates expected to progress in their business portfolio strategies by 2026 [1]. - The sector is experiencing a shift towards higher voltage systems in data centers, which presents opportunities for electrical equipment manufacturers skilled in high voltage applications [22][24]. Earnings Estimates and Target Prices - The report revises FY3/26E-FY3/28E operating profit estimates for the sector by an average of 0%/-1%/-1%, while raising 12-month target prices by an average of 4% [3][7]. - Specific target price adjustments include Anritsu from 2,400 million JPY to 2,600 million JPY, Panasonic HD from 2,100 million JPY to 2,300 million JPY, and Hitachi from 5,900 million JPY to 6,000 million JPY [7][3]. Technological Changes in AI Server Power - Companies like Hitachi and Mitsubishi Electric are increasing their presence in AI server power solutions, focusing on high-voltage DC systems to reduce conversion losses and improve efficiency [12][13]. - The report highlights the importance of battery backup units (BBUs) and hybrid supercapacitors (HSCs) in managing power fluctuations in generative AI data centers, with Panasonic having a strong position in BBUs [16][12]. Technological Changes in AI Server Optics - The report notes a significant shift towards higher communication speeds in data centers, moving from 200-400 Gbps to 800-1.6 Tbps, and the transition to Co-packaged Optics (CPO) [28][29]. - Companies such as Mitsubishi Electric, Sumitomo Electric, and Furukawa Electric are increasing production of optical devices and connectors to meet rising demand [30][31]. Implementation of Physical AI - Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric, and Panasonic are focusing on integrating AI into industrial applications, with expectations of increased competition as software companies also enter the physical AI space [47][49]. - The report categorizes companies in the sector based on their involvement in AI infrastructure, AI-enabled revenues, and productivity gains, with Hitachi identified as a key beneficiary across all categories [48][49].

6 January 2026 | 1:09AM HKT Equity Research GDS Holdings (GDS): DayOne announced Series C equity financing at US$7.4bn pre-money valuation, in line with GSe; Buy What happened GDS Holdings (GDS/9698.HK) announced on Jan.5 that DayOne has entered into agreements for US$2.1bn Series C equity financing. As per the announcement, the Series C financing includes investors from the US, Europe and APAC, and was led by Coatue Management and supported by additional leading institutions, including the Indonesia Invest ...

⾼盛交易台分析：⻢杜罗清洗⾏动对油价⻓期不 利。 泰勒·德登 2026年1⽉5⽇，星期⼀，上午9:25 在委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·⻢杜罗被推翻和驱逐的消息传开后不久，我们就表⽰，美国军事⾏动前 所未有的速度（和效率）（可能⾄少得到了委内瑞拉军队的部分协助）意味着随着更多⽯油产量即 将上线，油价将进⼀步下跌。Polymarket 的周末市场在周⽇原油期货交易重新开始之前证实了这 ⼀点。 果不其然，⼀天后期货开盘交易，任何希望委内瑞拉⾏动能推⾼油价的多头都失望了，油价在亚洲 早盘交易中下跌了1%。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 抛开本能反应不谈，⻢杜罗下台的⻓期影响是什么？答案来⾃⾼盛的⼤宗商品交易员，他们在周⽇ 晚间撰⽂指出，委内瑞拉局势" 短期内对油价构成不确定但适度的⻛险 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, indicating a cautious outlook on the economy [1][3][6]. Core Insights - The unemployment rate in the U.S. has risen to 4.4%, indicating a softening labor market, which may lead the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1][2][6]. - The report highlights an increase in AI-related bond issuances, with TMT companies issuing nearly $200 billion in corporate bonds this year, of which $100 billion is AI-related debt, impacting the credit market negatively [1][11]. - The anticipated fiscal stimulus in the first half of 2026, combined with lower interest rates, is expected to influence the yield curve positively [1][8]. Summary by Sections Employment Data - Recent employment reports show an addition of 119,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate increasing to 4.4% and sustained claims reaching new highs, indicating more slack in the labor market [2][6]. Federal Reserve's Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with internal divisions among FOMC members regarding the continuation of rate cuts [3][5][7]. Economic Data Impact - The upcoming November employment report is crucial for the Fed's decision-making, with limited significant data expected before the December meeting [5]. Fiscal Policy and Yield Curve - A significant fiscal stimulus is projected for 2026, which, along with easing financial conditions, is expected to alleviate concerns about fiscal sustainability and reduce pressure on the long-end of the yield curve [1][8][9]. Credit Market Challenges - The credit market faces challenges from a surge in new bond issuances, particularly in the AI sector, which has strained the market's ability to absorb risk [10][12]. Global Stock Strategy - Diversified investment strategies have performed well, with U.S. stocks up approximately 11.5% this year, while European markets have seen even higher returns, indicating the effectiveness of geographical diversification [13]. Long-term Equity Forecast - The report forecasts a 10-year total return rate of 7.7%, with U.S. returns expected around 6.5%, reflecting a lower return environment compared to recent years [14]. AI Sector Valuation - The AI sector is not currently in a bubble, as valuations remain reasonable compared to historical peaks, suggesting a strong fundamental basis for growth [15]. Nvidia's Performance - Nvidia's recent announcements indicate strong growth in data center revenues, with a 59% increase, and expectations for continued robust performance in the coming quarters [16].

2026/1/2 14:13 A Final Take On 2025 From Goldman's Hedge Fund Honcho | ZeroHedge ⾼盛对冲基⾦主管对2025年的最终看法 BY TYLER DURDEN FRIDAY, JAN 02,2026-02:25 AM 2025年对美国股票来说是⾮常不错的⼀年。⾼盛对冲基⾦业务主管托尼·帕斯夸⾥洛表示，他在措 辞上反复斟酌后得出结论："⾮常不错"这⼀说法与标普500指数实现稳健的两位数回报率相符，⽽ 且这⼀回报率明显⾼于⻓期平均⽔平。 尽管美国市场的表现⽐前两年稍逊⼀筹，但整体回报率仍然可观：纳斯达克100指数上涨21%…… 标普500指数上涨18%……道琼斯⼯业平均指数上涨15%……罗素指数上涨13%……标普等权重指 数上涨11%……中型股指数上涨7%。 i. 标普 500 指数上涨了 16% 。包括股息在内，总回报率为 +18% 。这在 1962 年以来的年 度回报率中排名第 57 百分位。 ii. 实际波动率为 19% ，在历史百分位中排名第 83 位。 iii. 综合这些数据，标普回报率与波动率的⽐率为 1.0 ，处于历史第 43 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the stock market in 2026, with a global economic growth forecast of 2.8%, higher than the market consensus of 2.5% [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the macroeconomic environment in 2026 will remain favorable for the stock market, with strong growth expected across all regions. The U.S. economy is projected to grow at 2.6%, surpassing the consensus of 2.0%, driven by reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and a loose financial environment [1][2]. - The report highlights the importance of companies leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance productivity, indicating that firms integrating AI into their operations are likely to see improved profit margins and cost reductions [5][9]. - The report discusses the ongoing "K-shaped economy," where low-income consumers continue to face challenges, while high-income groups experience significant wealth growth. This disparity is expected to persist into 2026, affecting consumer spending patterns [9][12]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Forecast - Global economic growth is projected at 2.8% for 2026, with the U.S. leading at 2.6% [1][2]. - Various regions, including emerging markets like China and India, are also expected to show robust growth, with China at 4.9% and India at 7.0% [2]. Investment Themes - Focus on companies utilizing AI to boost productivity, with a specific index (GSXUPROD) tracking non-tech firms that have integrated AI into their workflows [5][9]. - The report suggests a strategy of shorting low-income non-essential consumer goods companies due to their underperformance amid economic pressures faced by low-income consumers [9][12]. AI Investment Strategy - The report categorizes AI investments into "high-profit AI" and "vulnerable AI," aiming to differentiate between robust and weak assets based on financial health and cash flow resilience [14][12].