21 June 2025 | 4:02AM HKT Asia Credit Trader China Property Debt Restructuring Still A Slow Burn Despite rising tensions in the Middle East and the spike in oil prices, Asia credit largely marched to its own tune, with spreads little changed over the week. We believe that, unless geopolitical events and/or impact from trade tariffs begin to have notable negative impact on the Global economy and recession risks re-emerge, Asia credit will continue to climb the "wall of worry", with the need to maintain carry ...

22 June 2025 | 9:37AM HKT Asia Economics Analyst Unpacking China's Export Resilience Using Granular Trade Data (Chen/Jio) Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Chelse ...

Global Views: The Dog That Didn't Bark 1. Our projection for the 2025 increase in the effective US tariff rate has stabilized at around 14pp over the past two months, dramatically higher than the 2pp increase in the first Trump administration but significantly below the 20pp we assumed for two hours on April 9. Stabilization in the tariff outlook has helped financial conditions ease and pushed statistical measures of policy uncertainty down from the highs. It has also led us to shave our December 2025 core ...

22 June 2025 | 7:49PM EDT Commodity Comment: Upside Risks to Energy Prices Rise as Iran Conflict Escalates Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Samantha Dart +1(212)357-9428 | samantha.dart@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ephraim Sutherland +1(972)368-0395 | ephraim.sutherland@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Goldman Sachs Commodity Comment Upside Risks to Energy Prices Rise as Iran Co ...

20 June 2025 | 1:52PM EDT Weekly Fund Flows US Buys Domestic Global fund flows, week ending June 18 | | | Global Fund Flows Summary | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Millions USD | | % AUM | | | | 4wk sum | 18-Jun | 4wk avg | 18-Jun | | Equity | 31,288 | 45,419 | 0.03 | 0.19 | | Fixed Income | 70,798 | 19,165 | 0.20 | 0.22 | | of which: EM | 13,840 | 4,769 | 0.63 | 0.86 | | Money Markets | 55,084 | -11,734 | 0.14 | -0.12 | | FX Flows* | 58,223 | 18,166 | 0.11 | 0.14 | | | *Cross-border fund flows, e ...

中国新能源汽车产能扩张正在放缓，预计 2025 年将增长 250 万辆，同 比增长 13%，低于 2023 年的 550 万辆和 2024 年的 320 万辆。这种放缓 表明产能增长将逐渐放缓。 中国汽车市场依然分散，到 2024 年，前十大汽车制造商的市场份额将 不到 80%，而美国和日本等成熟市场的市场份额则超过 90%，这表明存 在整合和提高盈利能力的潜力。 由于政府刺激措施创造了远期需求，且与 2024 年相比，供应链定价压 力增加，因此 2025 年第一季度前十三家原始设备制造商的盈利能力改 善可能只是暂时的。 政府的以旧换新补贴，尤其是在 2024 年 7 月翻倍之后，显著刺激了需 求，去年的申请量达到 610 万份，表明对刺激措施的依赖程度相当高。 刺激需求在 2024 年约占汽车销量的 28%（610 万辆申请中实际销售 170 万辆），在 2025 年前 5 个月约占汽车销量的 31%（410 万辆申请中实际 销售 130 万辆），显示出持续的刺激效果。 政府的以旧换新预算从 2024 年的 1500 亿元人民币增加到 2025 年的 30 00 亿元人民币，汽车补贴从 900 亿元人民币增 ...

18 June 2025 | 12:37AM HKT Kingdee (0268.HK): AI agent 2.0 to empower financial/ travel/ HR/ knowledge AI; profitability improvement remains key focus; Buy We reiterate our Buy rating on Kingdee on release of Cosmic Agent 2.0 platform, which has features covering financial, travel, recruiting etc., which is empowered by multiple AI foundation models. We expect the company to continue expanding agents to AI sales, AI operations, AI decision-making etc., and enable AI agents to provide customized experiences ...

20 June 2025 | 12:28AM HKT Navigating China Internet 2025 618 festival overall highlights; 5 key observations; converging GMV growth amongst main platforms We estimate the China eCommerce industry concluded the 2025 618 shopping festival at around 10-11% gross GMV growth (before returns), on the back of 15% parcel volume growth over May 12 - Jun 15 (GSe based on MOT data, adjusted under SPB definition, a moderation vs. Apr/May at 19%/17%). We highlight 5 key observations on this year's 618 festival as below ...

20 June 2025 | 2:58AM CEST Around the world in 80 charts What the global transport markets say Q2 Ocean volumes up yoy, Air softer in recent weeks While intra-quarter volatility has been high, especially on the Pacific, the overall global (ocean) volume picture for Q2 looks relatively benign, in our view, with China port throughput +6%yoy QTD, Asia-Europe up mid single digits and Pacific volume declines Exhibit 15 contained by the recovery in China-US volumes in recent weeks and the strength out of SE Asia ...

17 June 2025 | 10:25PM HKT AIA Group (1299.HK): Key takeaways from Asia Financial Corporate Day Bottom line: We hosted AIA IR at our Asia Financial Corporate Day on Jun 17. Investor questions focused on 1) outlook for share buybacks, 2) impact of recent movements in rates, equity market, and exchange rates, 3) mainland China sales growth and margin outlook, including further footprint expansion in mainland China. Overall, AIA expects limited rates impact and positive translation impact from USD weakness. Th ...