Investment Rating - The report suggests an overweight position in equities while maintaining neutral allocations in bonds, commodities, and cash, with a low allocation to credit [2] Core Insights - Despite high market valuations, macro fundamentals are expected to support the current levels, and high valuations alone do not constitute a bearish signal [3] - Economic growth in 2026 is anticipated to be diversified, driven by fiscal policy, regulatory easing, and AI penetration, while political and geopolitical risks should be monitored [4] - The importance of diversification in asset allocation is emphasized, particularly in the late economic cycle, with a recommendation for alternative strategies and diverse investment styles [5][6] Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The macro outlook for 2026 is positive, with strong performance expected in the first half, but potential slowdown in the second half. Growth will be more diversified, supported by fiscal policy and AI integration [4] Market Valuation - Current valuations are high, with the S&P Shiller PE ratio at its highest level since the tech bubble, but macro factors support these valuations, indicating that high valuations alone do not signal a market downturn [3] Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy for early 2026 favors risk assets, particularly equities, while maintaining neutral positions in bonds and commodities. Credit is underweighted due to low credit spreads [2] - The report highlights the need for selective and cautious approaches in spread trading and credit investments, recommending an overweight in equities to navigate the current economic environment [7] Sector and Regional Trends - Different regions are driven by various factors, with the U.S. led by technology, while value stocks are recovering in Europe. The report notes a balanced dynamic across sectors, creating opportunities for alpha generation [8] Commodity Market Outlook - The commodity market is expected to see a divergence in returns, with gold projected to rise to $4,900 per ounce by year-end, while Brent crude oil prices are expected to decline to an average of $56 per barrel [18]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the U.S. economy with a projected GDP growth rate of 2.5% for Q4 2026, suggesting an investment rating that leans towards optimism for the U.S. market [1][3]. Core Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. economy will benefit from reduced tariff impacts, tax cuts, corporate fiscal support, and potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a GDP growth forecast that exceeds market consensus [1][2][3]. - For China, the economic growth forecast for 2026 is also above market consensus, driven by export growth that offsets negative impacts from the real estate sector, with an expected current account surplus reaching about 1% of global GDP [1][6]. - The report anticipates a continued weakening of the U.S. dollar in 2026, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's potential for larger rate cuts compared to other developed markets [1][8]. Summary by Sections U.S. Economic Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 2.5% in Q4 2026, supported by factors such as reduced tariffs, tax relief for consumers, and corporate fiscal support [1][3]. - The labor market is projected to remain stable with an unemployment rate around 4.5%, despite rising productivity levels [4]. China Economic Forecast - China's economic growth is anticipated to surpass market expectations, with export growth compensating for real estate sector weaknesses [1][6]. - The current account surplus is expected to expand, reflecting strong performance in export-oriented industries [6]. Currency and Inflation Trends - The report forecasts a continued decline in the U.S. dollar, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][8]. - Inflation in developed countries is cooling, with expectations that it will approach central bank targets by the end of the year [11][12]. Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the stock market may continue to perform well, although at a diminishing rate, due to a favorable macro environment [13]. - Credit markets are viewed as less favorable compared to equity markets, with narrowing spreads limiting upside potential [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a modestly pro-risk stance for 2026, recommending an overweight (OW) position in equities and underweight (UW) in credit [6]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment has shown positive surprises, with growth being the primary driver of risk appetite in 2026 [4]. - The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) has reached its highest level since early 2025, indicating strong market sentiment [2]. - Growth repricing has been broad across regions and asset classes, with equities outperforming bonds and cyclicals outperforming defensives [3]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Since the beginning of 2026, macroeconomic indicators have generally exceeded expectations, with the US unemployment rate dropping to 4.4% and positive manufacturing data from Germany [1]. Market Sentiment - The RAI has accelerated above 0.9, marking the 96th percentile since 1991, suggesting that while small corrections may occur, strong equity returns can persist in a supportive macro backdrop [2]. Asset Performance - Certain assets, such as silver, have experienced their best start-of-year performance in decades, with the Russell 2000 showing the largest historical outperformance against the Nasdaq composite [5]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in equities, particularly in APAC ex-Japan and emerging markets, while recommending underweight positions in credit and commodities like copper [6][23].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for major software companies like Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, and ServiceNow for 2026, driven by AI's potential to boost global GDP by $4.5 trillion, with software companies capturing 10% to 25% of the value created for end customers [2]. Core Insights - The AI application market is projected to reach approximately $450 billion, providing growth momentum for the industry, although competition may offset some benefits [1][2]. - Existing SaaS leaders such as Microsoft, Salesforce, and ServiceNow are expected to maintain significant positions in the enterprise software landscape through 2030, necessitating platform restructuring and product integration to enhance user adoption and monetization [1][4][5]. - The period from 2026 to 2031 is anticipated to be a golden era for AI enterprise applications, requiring companies to integrate workflows, break down data silos, and meet compliance and security standards [1][6]. - Long-term investment in software companies should focus on their self-innovation capabilities and the construction of intellectual property moats, alongside market adaptability and unit economics [1][7]. Summary by Sections AI Market Potential - The AI market is expected to grow significantly, with a potential market size of $450 billion, driven by increased adoption rates and improved competitive dynamics [1][2]. Major Software Companies - Companies like Microsoft, Salesforce, and ServiceNow are positioned to lead in the AI-driven enterprise software market, requiring them to innovate and integrate their offerings effectively [4][5][8]. Emerging Opportunities - New entrants such as Sierra and Writer are highlighted as potential disruptors in the software industry, indicating that opportunities still exist despite the maturity of the tech sector [5]. Investment Considerations - When selecting software stocks for long-term investment, factors such as self-innovation, core technology moats, market fit, and unit economics are crucial [7]. - ServiceNow and Oracle are identified as companies with significant value discovery potential, supported by their strategic positioning and operational capabilities [8]. Security Software Sector - Leading security software platforms like CrowdStrike, CloudFlare, and Palo Alto Networks are expected to thrive due to the essential nature of security in digital transformation, presenting multiple growth pathways [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the S&P 500, projecting a target of 7,600 points for 2026, with a core logic based on expected earnings growth of 12% and a corresponding return rate of 12% for the index [2]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 is expected to see a price increase of 16% in 2025, with 14 percentage points attributed to earnings contributions. For 2026, earnings growth is anticipated at 12%, aligning with a 12% return rate for the index, while the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to remain at 22 times [1][2]. - Despite rising interest rates, they remain below long-term averages, and the S&P 500's profitability has reached multi-decade highs. However, structural factors may hinder the reallocation of one-third of household portfolios into equities [1][5]. - AI-related spending by large enterprises is nearing $550 billion, reflecting a nearly 40% year-over-year growth, although the growth rate is beginning to slow. The focus of AI investments is shifting from infrastructure stocks to other sectors, with some companies demonstrating actual profitability impacts from AI applications [1][6]. - Productivity growth is forecasted at 0.5% for this year and 1.5% for the next, indicating a gradual increase despite modest figures [7]. - The IPO market is expected to improve in 2026, with macro indicators suggesting an increase in IPO numbers, which currently remain below long-term averages [8]. - Stock buybacks continue to be a significant demand source in the U.S. equity market, with daily demand estimated at $4 to $5 billion, although this demand is slowing down [9]. - The report highlights cyclical recovery opportunities, particularly in non-residential construction, transportation, building materials, and semiconductor sectors, with a focus on the middle-income consumer group [10]. Summary by Sections - **Earnings and Valuation**: The report indicates that the current P/E ratio of 22 is reasonable given the stability of macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and growth rates. The valuation is expected to remain below historical highs, with a potential upward bias in a healthy economic environment [3][4]. - **AI Investment Trends**: AI investments are projected to continue driving market growth, with significant spending expected to shift towards applications beyond infrastructure, indicating a maturation of the AI sector [6]. - **Productivity and IPO Outlook**: The anticipated gradual increase in productivity and a more favorable IPO environment in 2026 are seen as positive indicators for market health and investment opportunities [7][8].

Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs upgrades the investment rating for the Asia-Pacific region, specifically the MX APJ index, with a 12-month target raised to 825 points, indicating a 14% price return in USD and a total return of 17% [1][2]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is viewed as constructive, with U.S. GDP growth expected to exceed market consensus at 2.6%, and the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates twice before mid-year, which typically benefits Asian markets [3][4]. - Earnings growth for 2026 is projected to be strong, increasing from 10% to 19%, with significant contributions from North Asia, India, and cyclical sectors [1][5]. - Valuations are considered reasonable but slightly high, with a forecasted slight compression from 15x to 14.6x, indicating that corporate earnings will be the primary driver of stock market returns [6]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic outlook is positive, with U.S. GDP growth at 2.6% and AEG growth around 4.8%. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates twice this year, leading to a weaker dollar, which is favorable for Asian markets [3][4]. Earnings Expectations - Earnings growth is anticipated to rise significantly, with overall growth expected to reach 19%. The recovery in quarterly earnings is attributed to easing base effects, and the ERI indicator suggests a positive outlook for earnings revisions [5]. Valuation Perspective - Current valuations are slightly above historical averages, with the region's price-to-earnings ratio at 1.2 standard deviations above the long-term mean. Earnings will be crucial for driving stock market returns this year [6]. Fund Flow Trends - There has been a significant outflow of approximately $100 billion from overseas investors, with current mutual fund allocations 75 basis points below benchmarks, indicating potential for rebuilding positions in the region [7][8]. Sector and Industry Focus - Investment in large-scale enterprises is expected to grow by 34% to approximately $550 billion, benefiting sectors such as hardware, semiconductors, and AI. The "Asian Energy Upgrade" theme is highlighted, focusing on nuclear power, electricity, and renewable energy [9]. - The geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China presents opportunities for U.S. re-industrialization, with countries like South Korea and Japan increasing investments in response to U.S. demand [10]. China Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to remain robust, with the MSCI China index projected to rise by 15%-17% and the CSI 300 index by about 10%. Profit growth is forecasted to increase significantly from 4% to 14% [13][14]. India Market Strategy - The Indian market rating has been upgraded to "overweight," with expected earnings growth of around 15%. Key sectors include finance, consumer goods, and industrials, particularly in defense and energy security [16][19].

高盛闭门会--2026 年 G10 利率展望：通缩缓解降低了久 期风险 20260110 摘要 在我们的宏观观点中存在通缩因素，预计年底将接近目标水平。目前环境下， 我们预测波动性不高。对于主要经济体 10 年期基准利率，我们预计美国利率 将横盘整理至 4.2%。尽管久期风险依然存在，今年（2026 年）财政风险和经 济增长前景略有改善。如果通胀走势保持相对可控，即便债券供给量大，也能 催生债券需求。因此，这是我们美国利率预测的重要考量因素之一。 我们倾向 于认为美国收益率曲线趋陡。如果劳动力市场数据出现任何走弱迹象——短期 内不会出现显著走弱——美联储始终存在加速降息风险。若出现此类疲软迹象， 美国收益率曲线小幅趋陡。此外，我们预计德国国债收益率会上升，因为德国 市场共识接近降息周期尾声，甚至可能进入加息周期，但当前经济预测 与多数经济体实际情况接近，政策利率预测略低于市场预期，预计通缩 过程将持续至 2026 年，美联储或再降息两次。 预计英国央行今年可能降息三次，美国降息两次，瑞典央行或加拿大央 行等经济体将维持政策不变，澳大利亚央行年底前可能加息一次，多数 市场年底实际利率水平将略低于当前水平。 日本 ...

高盛：欧洲防务板块——下一步何去何从？20260110 摘要 宏观和地缘政治事件扭转持仓结构，年初对冲基金和行业机构低配国防 板块，近期因美丹就格陵兰岛问题争端而重新定价，资金流向显示投资 者偏好德国企业高增长预期，对法国标的持谨慎态度。 莱茵金属是做多欧洲防务板块的核心标的，成本价差表现优异，可使用 有限溢价结构表达多头优势，若俄乌局势超预期进展，该策略能提供选 择权和保护，劳斯莱斯则是最具吸引力的小型故事。 球性的长期趋势。几乎所有地区都在大幅增加国防开支，这一趋势大概率不会 逆转。从我们覆盖的股票及对欧洲市场的影响来看，BAE 系统公司约 45%的 销售额来自美国市场，因此其敞口遥遥领先。此外，莱昂纳多和莱茵金属同样 表现亮眼，两者约 20%至 25%的销售额来自美国市场。 本周与客户交流中，哪些领域关注度最高？哪些板块兴趣最浓厚？ 本周初德国国防领域关注度极高。去年年底，该板块出现显著估值下调，部分 原因是年底获利了结和去杠杆操作。但随着国防主题再次升温，德国作为兼具 政治意愿、政治稳定性和财政空间的高增长区域重新受到关注。在国防主题投 资中，莱茵金属这类股票是典型标的，因此其关注度回升合乎逻辑。本周 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, with expectations that demand growth will exceed non-OPEC supply growth post-2027, suggesting a potential bottom for oil prices this year [1][4]. Core Insights - The oil market outlook has improved slightly, with investors showing a more favorable view on oil, while maintaining a cautious stance on natural gas [3][4]. - The natural gas market faces challenges due to an influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, with significant pressure anticipated from 2027 to 2029 [1][12]. - The overall activity level in the U.S. onshore oil and gas sector is expected to remain stable in 2026, with WTI crude oil prices potentially stabilizing around $40 per barrel [7]. - Canadian energy companies are gaining attention, with reduced selling pressure on Canadian oil stocks, particularly Suncor Energy, despite recent volatility due to geopolitical factors [9][10]. Summary by Sections Oil Market - Investors are slightly more optimistic about the oil market, with expectations of demand growth surpassing non-OPEC supply growth after 2027 [1][4]. - ConocoPhillips and Chevron are highlighted as companies to watch, particularly in relation to the evolving situation in Venezuela [5]. Natural Gas Market - The U.S. natural gas production is expected to grow at over 3%, but the LNG market is facing significant supply challenges [1][12]. - The report emphasizes a cautious outlook for natural gas, with a focus on the potential impacts of supply influx on pricing [12]. U.S. Onshore Oil and Gas Activity - The report anticipates that overall activity levels in the U.S. onshore oil and gas sector will remain stable in 2026, with no significant adjustments expected [7]. - The report notes that if WTI prices drop to the $40 range, the industry activity is likely to remain relatively stable [7]. Canadian Energy Sector - Canadian oil stocks are experiencing reduced selling pressure, with Suncor Energy being a notable player despite recent challenges [9][10]. - The report highlights the importance of Canadian companies in the global energy landscape, particularly in terms of technological innovation and sustainability [8]. Refining Industry - The global refining capacity is expected to grow at a slower pace than refined oil demand, leading to a structurally tighter market [22]. - The report suggests that the refining sector will perform well in the next 6 to 12 months, although it may face consolidation pressures [22].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a pessimistic outlook for the real estate market, with expectations of a 10%-15% decline in second-hand housing prices over the next two years [1][3][12] Core Insights - The overall real estate sales are projected to decline moderately, with new housing sales decreasing but a slight rebound in the absorption rate anticipated [1][5] - Land sales are expected to slow down after a brief recovery in the first half of 2025, with new construction area potentially dropping below 500 million square meters by the end of 2027 [1][6] - Developers are facing significant financing challenges, with interest burdens rising, particularly for private developers, leading to increased repayment pressures [1][8] - The liquidity situation for 28 developers under pressure has worsened, with a significant reduction in sales contribution and a high proportion of short-term debt [1][9] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Outlook - The forecast for the real estate market in 2026 and 2027 has been updated, with a delay in the stabilization of housing prices due to unclear policy support [2][12] - Second-hand housing prices are expected to decline by 10%-15%, with transaction volumes stabilizing around 600 million square meters [3][12] New Housing Market - New housing sales are anticipated to decline, but a slight rebound in the absorption rate is expected due to a decrease in available inventory [5][6] Land Sales and New Construction - Land sales are projected to concentrate in first and second-tier cities, with new construction area potentially decreasing significantly by 2027 [6][7] Developer Challenges - Developers are facing increased interest expenses, with the interest coverage ratio for many private companies dropping significantly, raising concerns about their ability to manage debt [8][9] - The report categorizes developers into three groups based on their financial health, highlighting the challenges faced by private developers [13][15] Property Management Sector - The property management sector is viewed as relatively defensive, with expectations of stable fundamentals and potential marginal recovery [14][16]