GC Tech: Conant Optical (2276.HK): AI / AR glasses customized lenses with lightness; new capacity expansion to capture growing demand We met Conant Optical's (2276.HK, Not Covered) management in Hong Kong recently. Conant Optical is a leading China resin lenses manufacturer, and is expanding its business from the spectacle lens market to AI / AR glasses to capture a larger addressable market. Overall, management expects to see sustained growth in the company's existing core business, and is positive on the ...

30 June 2025 | 10:11PM BST GOAL Kickstart Dovish and De-escalation - Markets embrace a Goldilocks Backdrop Last week increased expectations of a more dovish Fed (Exhibit 1), de-escalation of Middle East tensions (Exhibit 2) and progress in U.S. trade negotiations (including removal of section 899) supported growth pricing across assets. Our Economists pulled forward their forecast for the next cut to September and reduced their terminal rate forecast to 3-3.25%. Indeed, our PC1 "Global growth" factor improv ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights five key themes impacting the market, including macroeconomic factors, currency dynamics, oil market conditions, and tariff developments [1][2][5][20][29] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Insights - The UK is positioned as a higher-growth, higher-inflation jurisdiction compared to G10 peers, with terminal rates likely settling 100-200 basis points above Europe [2][3] - Business confidence in the UK is at multi-month highs, and there is a deep sovereign bond market with long-term investors under-invested [2][3] Currency Dynamics - The USD may weaken further due to a dovish tilt from the Fed, especially if upcoming labor market data shows weakness [5][6] - The Euro area is experiencing equity inflows, which may lead to a stronger Euro, although the pace could slow if there are no compelling reasons to reallocate from the US [7][8] - The JPY is expected to maintain demand due to recession risks and reduced appeal of US assets, while the INR may lag in appreciation compared to other Asian currencies [9][13] Oil Market Analysis - The risk premium in oil prices has significantly decreased, dropping from over $15 per barrel to just a few dollars, as geopolitical risks have lessened [20][21] - The report forecasts Brent crude oil prices to decline from the current high 60s to around $60 in Q4 and mid-50s by 2026, driven by oversupply [23][24] - Global oil inventories have increased by approximately 1.3 million barrels per day over the last 90 days, supporting the forecast of an oversupplied market [27][28] Tariff Developments - The July 9 tariff deadline is likely to be pushed out, with potential for sectoral tariffs rather than broad increases [29][30] - The report suggests that specific sectors, such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, may face targeted tariffs, but the timing remains uncertain [35][36]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 30 June 2025 | 9:00AM HKT China Software: SenseTime visit: Gen AI one-stop solution from infra to foundation models/ apps, accelerating AI deployment We visited SenseTime's (0020.HK, Not Covered) management in Hong Kong recently. Management is positive on growing demand from enterprise clients on generative AI foundation model customization and deployment, and highlights SenseTime is capable of offering comprehensive solution covering infrastructure (in-house large-scale AIDC ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 29 June 2025 | 3:25PM HKT China Resources Pharmaceuticals (3320.HK): China Healthcare Corporate Day 2025 — Key Takeaways: Soft growth in 1H amid Presenter: Yulin Chen - Head of Investor Relations Bottom line: Management noted soft growth in 1H due to challenging industry environment and toned down previous guidance of double-digit y/y sales growth for 2025 pending recovery situation in 2H. Cash collection remained under pressure. Key Takeaways Soft growth in 1H: management to ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 29 June 2025 | 7:20PM BRT Global Metals & Mining: Takeaways from GS Global Copper Week 2025 +55(11)3371-4580 | marcio.farid@gs.com Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A. Matt Greene +44(20)7051-0489 | matt.greene@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Mike Harris +1(713)654-8481 | mike.harris@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Emerson Vieira +55(11)3372-0256 | emerson.vieira@gs.com Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A. Henrique Marques +55(11)3371-0778 | henrique.marques@gs.com Goldman Sachs ...

China: What do local clients think about the economy? Local marketing takeaways June 2025 We met with onshore clients in Beijing and Shanghai over the past week prior to the start of H2. These clients range from mutual funds and private equity funds, to asset managers in banks and insurance companies. Compared with our previous onshore marketing two months ago amid significant US-China tariff hikes, onshore clients have become less bearish on China's near-term growth outlook, lowered their easing expectatio ...

25 June 2025 | 8:38PM CST TSMC (2330.TW) Growth outlook further reinforced by easing concern on AI order cuts and growing CoWoS adoption; reiterate Buy (on CL); TP to NT$1,210 | 2330.TW | 12m Price Target: NT$1,210.00 | Price: NT$1,070.00 | Upside: 13.1% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TSM | 12m Price Target: $242.00 | Price: $220.09 | Upside: 10.0% | We are raising our earnings forecast for TSMC by 2-6% for 2025-2027E as we raise our 1) wafer revenue forecast for 3nm/5nm, partially to factor in our easing co ...

30 June 2025 | 12:05AM EDT Circle Internet Group (CRCL) A unique asset in the crypto ecosystem, with a healthy growth outlook, although valuation appears elevated; initiate at Neutral CRCL 12m Price Target: $83.00 Price: $180.43 Downside: 54.0% We initiate coverage of stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group (CRCL) with a Neutral rating and an $83 12-month price target, based on 60.0x Q5-Q8 adjusted earnings, implying 54% downside. CRCL is a unique asset in the public markets, as the only pure play crypto-na ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CATL A/H shares, with a 12-month price target of Rmb323.00 for CATL A shares and HK$343.00 for CATL H shares, indicating an upside potential of 27.8% and 5.7% respectively [1][4][20]. Core Insights - The launch of Xiaomi's YU7, equipped with CATL batteries, is expected to bolster CATL's product mix improvement and drive growth in Qilin battery penetration starting in the second half of 2025 [2][26]. - Xiaomi has become CATL's largest high-end battery customer, contributing approximately 50% of Qilin and Shenxing installations in Q1 2025, with projections indicating significant growth in battery supply to Xiaomi in the coming years [3][31]. - The report emphasizes that product mix improvement is crucial for CATL's unit profit expansion, which has been undervalued by the market [4][38]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - CATL's market capitalization is Rmb1.2 trillion (approximately $160.7 billion), with an enterprise value of Rmb881.8 billion (approximately $123.0 billion) [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from Rmb362 billion in 2024 to Rmb588 billion by 2027, with EBITDA increasing from Rmb77.5 billion to Rmb143 billion over the same period [5][18]. - EPS is expected to rise from Rmb11.58 in 2024 to Rmb22.49 in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5][18]. Growth and Margins - Total revenue growth is forecasted at -9.7% in 2024, followed by a recovery with 20.4% growth in 2025 and 22.1% in 2026 [13]. - EBITDA margin is expected to improve from 21.4% in 2024 to 24.3% by 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [13]. Competitive Position - CATL is projected to maintain a significant market share in the EV battery sector, with Xiaomi closing the gap with top competitors like Tesla and Geely [28][30]. - The report highlights that CATL's high-end NCM battery, Qilin, is expected to see a resurgence in penetration, alleviating pressures from lower-priced LFP battery competition [2][24].