2026/1/3 19:36 以下是高盛追踪的2026年主要主题 | ZeroHedge 泰勒·德登 2026年1⽉3⽇，星期六，凌晨1点45分 随着 2025 年即将结束，2026 年即将到来，⾼盛的⾏业分析师们已经聚焦于未来⼀年值得关注的 ⼏个主题。 以下是⼀些例⼦…… 1. ⼈⼯智能与电⼒。 随着新公司（如AVGO）崭露头⻆，⼈⼯智能基础设施领域正显露出进⼊新阶段的迹象。许多⾏业 领军企业——如英伟达（NVDA）、微软（MSFT）和亚⻢逊（AMZN）——的股价⾃夏季以来停滞 不前，⽽⼈⼯智能领域的"赢家"（如⾕歌GOOGL等）则开始涌现。投资者已将⽬光投向数据中 ⼼，寻找那些⽆论使⽤何种芯⽚，都在为全球计算能⼒建设提供⽀持的公司。 存储器⽣产商如MU股价飙升，连接器公司如APH和TEL也同样如此。⼈⼯智能基础设施建设中的 "电⼒竞争"板块也在转型，公⽤事业股涨势停滞，⽽燃⽓轮机供应商GEV持续增⻓，能够安装所有 这些设备的公司（PWR、EME）在市场和现场资源短缺的情况下也继续蓬勃发展。 以下是⾼盛追踪的2026年主要主题 Ryan Hammond 在 11 ⽉ 18 ⽇的⼀份报告中深⼊探讨了⼈⼯智能交 ...

2025/12/25 15:09 Charts In Focus: These Are Goldman's Top Tech Trader's 10 Biggest Questions For 2026 | ZeroHedge 聚焦图表：这些是⾼盛顶级科技交易员对2026年的10 个最⼤疑问 BY TYLER DURDEN THURSDAY, DEC 25,2025-12:05 AM 科技、媒体和电信⾏业⼜迎来了稳健的⼀年，2025年纳斯达克100指数上涨20%以上，有望实现连 续三年年度回报率超过20%，这在25年多的时间⾥仅为第⼆次（……或者换个说法：……过去23 年中，纳斯达克100指数仅出现过3次下跌年份……） 尽管如此，⾼盛顶级科技交易员彼得·卡拉汉提醒客⼾，2025年的市场⾏情并⾮"⼀帆⻛顺"…… ... 因为今年前4个⽉有⼏次严峻的考验（1⽉的深度求索（DeepSeek）、2⽉/3⽉令⼈不快的Mo' unwind，以及4⽉的"解放⽇"），随后…… 2025年最佳表现者（截⾄12⽉23⽇）：SNDK/铠侠/南亚增⻓超500%，SATS增⻓370%，光模块 （中际旭创、LITE）增⻓超350%，IR ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights 15 key themes for 2025, many of which are expected to continue into 2026, focusing on significant debates such as artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure and its ecosystem risks [1] - There is a growing concern regarding the risks associated with private credit, particularly following significant losses and fraud allegations [12][13] - The report anticipates a favorable macro environment for 2026, driven by factors such as accelerated growth, fiscal stimulus, and a potential reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve [15] - The report notes a divergence in retail performance based on income demographics, with low-income consumer sentiment turning negative and only a 0.2% increase in same-store sales for low-income retailers compared to a 2.5% increase for middle to high-income retailers [22] - The report predicts a strong demand for physical assets due to rising inflation and a declining dollar, with expectations for copper prices to continue rising in the first half of 2026 [24] - The report indicates that the Chinese GDP growth forecast has been significantly revised upward, which may negatively impact global GDP growth outside of China [38] Summary by Sections - **Artificial Intelligence**: The focus remains on AI capital expenditure and the risks associated with companies having higher leverage within the AI ecosystem [4][6] - **Private Credit**: Concerns are raised about the risks in non-bank lending, particularly with the increasing interconnections within the financial system [12][13] - **U.S. Economic Outlook**: The report discusses the rebound in U.S. cyclical sectors and the pricing of a more favorable macro environment for 2026 [15] - **Fiscal Stimulus**: A combination of tax cuts, investment incentives, and new spending is expected to create a significantly positive fiscal stimulus by next year [17] - **K-shaped Economy**: The report highlights the disparity in consumer sentiment and sales growth between low-income and higher-income demographics [22] - **Commodities**: Expectations for rising copper prices and a tight supply of aluminum are noted, alongside a general bullish outlook for physical assets [24] - **China's Economic Impact**: The upward revision of China's GDP growth is expected to have substantial implications for foreign manufacturers and global GDP growth [38] - **Emerging Markets**: South Korea is highlighted as the best-performing market this year, with ongoing improvements in corporate performance [43] - **U.S.-China Tech Competition**: The report emphasizes the ongoing intense competition between the U.S. and China for technological superiority [45]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the healthcare sector, particularly the biopharmaceutical industry, which is expected to continue its recovery into 2026 [4][5]. Core Insights - The biopharmaceutical sector has shown significant recovery, with a 12% increase this year, narrowing the gap with the S&P 500 index, which has risen by 14% [2][3]. - Key drivers for this recovery include improved policy clarity regarding drug pricing and a resurgence in investor confidence in innovation across various therapeutic areas, particularly in obesity and cardiovascular diseases [3][4]. - The report highlights that major biopharmaceutical companies are experiencing upward revisions in sales expectations for the first time in years, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [3][5]. Summary by Sections Biopharmaceutical Sector - The biopharmaceutical industry is expected to see sustained recovery, driven by clearer drug pricing policies and the initiation of new product cycles [4][5]. - Major companies like Amgen and Regeneron are anticipated to have upward performance potential, while BioGen is expected to improve due to stable earnings and catalysts [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of mergers and acquisitions as a significant theme, with the industry likely entering a consolidation phase [8][12]. Medical Technology - The medical technology sector is projected to experience organic growth slowdown, but there are numerous product catalysts that could drive performance [25][26]. - Companies like Edwards and Abbott are highlighted as having significant growth potential, with expectations of increased merger activity [25][26]. Healthcare Services - The report discusses the managed care sector, indicating that it is currently in a typical underwriting cycle, with a potential recovery in Medicare Advantage plans expected in 2026 [32][33]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for managed Medicaid plans and exchanges, with specific companies receiving varied ratings based on their performance and market conditions [33]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several stocks as potential investment opportunities for 2026, including UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Cytokinetics, and Abbott, among others [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious optimism for the apparel industry in 2026, highlighting potential recovery driven by middle-income consumer growth and stimulus policies [5] Core Insights - The retail industry in 2026 will focus on delivery speed, value, and the introduction of agency commerce, with successful companies expanding market share through alternative revenue sources like memberships and media [3][4] - The consumer environment in the U.S. is expected to improve, benefiting discretionary spending, particularly in high-growth sectors like energy drinks, nicotine, and beauty products [6] - The food packaging and retail sectors will see improved profit margins due to falling commodity prices, although competition from private labels is intensifying [7] - Key investment themes include the performance of middle-income consumers, with a projected 2.5% increase in real income for the third and fourth income quintiles in 2026 [2] Retail Industry Summary - Four key themes for the retail industry in 2026: delivery speed, value, agency commerce, and the expansion of alternative revenue sources [3] - Companies like Dick's Sporting Goods, Monster, Philip Morris, and Estee Lauder are highlighted as top investment picks [3][14] Apparel Industry Summary - The apparel industry is expected to recover due to consumer demand for wardrobe updates and supportive policies for middle-income groups [5][11] - Factors influencing profitability include pricing management, demand elasticity, and tariff impacts [5] Nicotine Products Summary - Nicotine products have outperformed the market for two consecutive years, driven by consumer pressure and value-oriented behavior [6] Food Packaging and Retail Summary - The decline in commodity prices is expected to enhance profit margins, while competition from private labels poses risks [7] - Companies like Albertsons, Kroger, and Sprouts are positioned to benefit, along with protein companies like Tyson Foods and Hormel [7] Consumer Staples Summary - Recommended stocks in the consumer staples sector include Philip Morris and Monster, both showing strong growth potential [8] - Attention is drawn to companies like Pepsi, Elf, and Celsius, which may be undervalued due to excessive short-selling sentiment [8] Investment Opportunities Summary - Notable investment opportunities include Dick's Sporting Goods, Monster, Philip Morris, Estee Lauder, Ross Stores, and Marriott, all expected to benefit from favorable consumer trends [14]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for global markets, suggesting that investors should maintain stock allocations while diversifying to hedge against high valuation risks [6][13]. Core Insights - Global stock markets are experiencing broad gains, with the Spanish market up nearly 70% in USD terms, indicating a significant geographical and sectoral expansion in market performance [1][2]. - The current high valuation levels, particularly in the US market with a P/E ratio exceeding 22, suggest that future returns will primarily stem from earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3][4]. - Earnings growth expectations for 2026 are optimistic, with the US projected to achieve a 12% increase in earnings, driven by margin improvements and the growth of the technology sector [5][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report highlights that 2025 has seen a more diversified market performance, with technology and AI sectors standing out, and for the first time since the financial crisis, most major stock markets have outperformed the US [2][8]. - The geographical breadth of market performance is expanding, with value stocks in Europe outperforming the market while US growth stocks regain dominance [3][10]. Earnings Growth Expectations - The report anticipates strong earnings growth across regions in 2026, with the US expected to benefit from margin improvements and a robust technology sector [5][7]. - European markets, despite current profit weaknesses, are expected to improve as the euro strengthens against the dollar and energy sector impacts diminish [5]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios to mitigate high valuation risks while maintaining stock allocations, as global markets are catching up to the US, presenting new opportunities [6][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of diversification across geography, factors, and sectors to optimize risk-adjusted returns, especially in light of the concentration risk posed by a few leading companies in the US market [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a constructive outlook for the stock market, suggesting it may continue to rise despite increased volatility [1][2]. Core Insights - Current stock and credit market valuations are high, which contradicts the macroeconomic cycle that has not yet shown typical late-cycle characteristics [1][2]. - AI capital expenditure is expected to drive growth, while a weak labor market may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative stance, creating a favorable environment for the stock market [1][4]. - The cyclical growth outlook has room for upward adjustment, with tight fiscal conditions potentially pushing long-term bond yields higher, resulting in a steep yield curve [5]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Background - The macroeconomic backdrop for 2025 is described as relatively mild, with steady economic growth and a clear trend towards disinflation [2]. - The stock and credit markets are experiencing high valuations, which do not align with the current macroeconomic cycle [2]. Stock Market Outlook - The S&P 500's risk-adjusted returns are expected to be slightly lower than the highs of the past three years, but short-term valuation constraints are not strong [4]. - The market is sensitive to earnings misses and inflation concerns, with AI capital expenditure expected to create more cyclical opportunities [4][3]. Bond Market Dynamics - The report anticipates that the process of disinflation will return to a positive trajectory, keeping front-end yields low in the U.S. and the U.K. [5]. - Long-term U.S. bond yields are expected to fluctuate within a range, with a favorable outlook for U.K. government bonds due to weak economic data and supportive central bank policies [5]. Currency Market Trends - The foreign exchange market in 2026 is expected to differ significantly from 2025, with the U.S. dollar projected to depreciate moderately due to expectations of interest rate cuts [8][9]. - The Chinese yuan is expected to gradually appreciate, with policymakers likely to accept this trend to maintain export competitiveness [9]. Emerging Market Opportunities - Emerging market equities are projected to deliver a total return of approximately 15%, supported by a favorable macro environment and declining inflation [10]. - Countries with hawkish central banks, such as Hungary and Brazil, are highlighted as having favorable conditions for local rate trades [10]. Hedging Strategies - In the current late-cycle environment, long-term stock holdings are recommended, with a focus on diversification and hedging strategies [11]. - Gold and commodity arbitrage strategies are suggested as effective diversification options, while long call options are recommended for managing stock risk [11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights 15 key debates for 2025 that are likely to continue into 2026, focusing on various sectors including artificial intelligence, private credit, and macroeconomic factors [1] - There is a significant focus on the potential risks associated with alternative debt structures and high-leverage companies within the artificial intelligence ecosystem [4] - The report anticipates a further expansion of artificial intelligence transactions into platform stocks and productivity beneficiaries [9] - Concerns regarding private credit have arisen due to major losses and fraud allegations, indicating increasing risks in non-bank lending [12][13] - The recent rebound in the U.S. cyclical stock market reflects optimistic expectations for the macroeconomic outlook in 2026, with anticipated acceleration in economic growth and fiscal stimulus [15] - The report predicts a favorable fiscal stimulus environment for the upcoming year, driven by tax cuts, investment incentives, and new spending [17] - The K-shaped economic recovery is highlighted, showing disparities in consumer sentiment and sales growth between low-income and high-income segments [21] - The report suggests that 2026 may be a year of recovery for traditional economies, with rising commodity prices driven by a weaker dollar and increased inflation [23] - The outlook for Brent crude oil prices indicates significant downside potential compared to market expectations for 2026 [25] - The stablecoin market is currently valued at approximately $307 billion, dominated by Tether and Circle [29] - Despite strong economic performance in Europe, capital inflows remain notably sluggish [30] - The report has adjusted China's GDP growth forecast upward, which may negatively impact global GDP growth outside of China [36] - The report anticipates further strengthening of the euro against the dollar, which could adversely affect companies with high international sales [38] - South Korea is identified as the best-performing market year-to-date, with ongoing improvements in corporate sectors [40] - The ongoing technological competition between the U.S. and China remains intense, with both countries pursuing self-sufficient technology policies [42]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The S&P 500 index has an average annual total return of +13% since 1945, with 79% of years yielding positive returns, indicating a high probability of profit in the stock market [4][5] - Investing $1,000 in the S&P 500 index in 1945 would result in approximately $7.3 million today, highlighting the power of compounding and the impact of seasonal investment strategies [5][6] - U.S. household net worth increased by 52% from $110 trillion at the end of 2019 to $167 trillion by mid-2023, indicating significant wealth accumulation [5] - The top 10% of U.S. households own 87% of the stock market, while the top 1% own 50%, reflecting wealth concentration in the equity market [6] - Since March 2009, the Nasdaq 100 index has seen a total return of +2,753%, with notable investment opportunities arising during market downturns [7] - The market capitalization of the seven largest tech companies has grown from $1 trillion to $21 trillion over the past thirteen years, indicating robust growth in the tech sector [7] - The average age of first-time homebuyers in the U.S. has reached a record high of 40 years, compared to 31 years in 1999, suggesting changing demographics in the housing market [12] Summary by Sections Historical Performance - The S&P 500 index has consistently provided positive returns, with a total return of +17% year-to-date, placing it in the 56th percentile historically [4] - The significant difference in returns based on investment timing emphasizes the importance of market timing and seasonal factors [5] Wealth Distribution - U.S. households, through direct ownership or funds, hold over 50% of the U.S. stock market, contrasting sharply with hedge funds that hold only 2% [5] - The concentration of stock ownership among the wealthiest households raises questions about market dynamics and accessibility for average investors [6] Economic Indicators - The increase in U.S. household net worth and the growth of the tech sector reflect broader economic trends and potential investment opportunities [5][7] - The projected growth of U.S. nominal GDP by nearly 280% by 2050 indicates a long-term positive outlook for the economy [11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the artificial intelligence sector, highlighting a recent downturn in momentum and a shift in market sentiment towards cyclical stocks and AI stocks [1][11]. Core Insights - The report discusses a significant rotation in the market, with a focus on the leadership and expanding participation of artificial intelligence companies. There is growing skepticism among investors regarding the sustainability of AI's leadership position [11]. - Despite a recent decline in the S&P 500 index, the non-essential consumer/retail sector has seen gains, driven by a strong performance in the GSPUCYDE currency trading basket [2]. - The report notes that not all cyclical stocks have suffered; for instance, LULU's stock surged by 11% due to better-than-expected earnings and an optimistic outlook for economic recovery [5]. - The financial sector has been a net buyer for three consecutive weeks, driven by bullish sentiment, while the energy sector has faced significant selling pressure due to low WTI crude oil prices [20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 1% to 6827 points, with the Nasdaq index dropping 191 basis points to 25196 points, primarily due to declines in AVGO and ORCL stocks [1]. - The report highlights that macro factors are driving capital flows, with ETFs tracking macro stocks accounting for 36% of total trading volume [1]. Sector Analysis - The healthcare, utilities, and financial sectors are noted as the highest net buyers, while communication services, information technology, and energy sectors are the highest net sellers [16]. - The energy sector has seen a rapid deterioration in market sentiment, particularly among refining stocks, with a noted decline in crack spreads [22]. Investor Behavior - The report indicates that two groups of investors had net sell-offs of approximately $1 billion each, with hedge funds primarily driven by selling in industrial and technology stocks [6][9]. - The report also mentions that the volatility index (VIX) is expected to see increased selling pressure as investors hedge against volatility [10][12].