Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for non-US growth due to trade headwinds, suggesting a cautious investment stance in related sectors [2][30]. Core Insights - A significant increase in US imports in Q1 provided a boost to GDP growth among US trading partners, particularly in Taiwan and Ireland, where manufacturing GVA contributed 9 percentage points to annualized GDP growth [2][30]. - The report anticipates that the tailwinds from frontloading exports to the US and a boost from Dollar appreciation are shifting to headwinds, with tariffs expected to dampen export growth [2][30]. - The overall drag on real exports is estimated to be between 4% to 15% for major economies, with specific impacts of a 3% decline from USD depreciation and another 3% from tariff implementation [2][21][30]. Summary by Sections Export Dynamics - The surge in US imports was driven by frontloading ahead of tariff implementation, which is expected to reverse within the next three months [10][18]. - A cumulative 6% appreciation of the Dollar in Q4 2024 is projected to lower total real exports by approximately 3% in 2025H2, with the most significant impacts felt in the UK and Euro area [15][21]. Economic Activity Impact - The trade pullback is likely to affect broader economic activity, with historical data suggesting a potential decline in industrial production by 1-5% and manufacturing PMIs by 1-4 points in the coming months [28][30]. - The report forecasts a slowdown in global ex-US GDP growth from 3.2% in Q1 to 1.3% in Q2, 1.6% in Q3, and 1.9% in Q4, primarily due to trade headwinds [30][34]. Sector-Specific Effects - The report highlights that the largest declines in industrial production are expected in Canada (-5%) and Germany (-4%), while smaller declines are anticipated in China (-1.2%) and Japan (-1.7%) [28][30]. - Manufacturing PMIs are expected to reflect these trade-related slowdowns, with a 10 percentage point decline in total real export growth potentially lowering PMIs by 1-3 points [25][28].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a shift towards diversification in investment opportunities, particularly favoring European equities over US equities due to historical valuation spreads and changing market dynamics [5][6][9]. Core Insights - The depreciation of the US dollar and a more resilient Chinese economy are challenging the sustainability of US outperformance, prompting a reconsideration of investment strategies [6][7]. - European companies are expected to return approximately 5% of their market capitalization to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, which is significantly higher than the US average of below 4% [8][9]. - The CAPEX-to-Sales ratio in Europe is nearing a 10-year high, indicating a shift towards growth investments, driven by themes such as infrastructure upgrades and artificial intelligence [9][10]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The report highlights a broadening of investor opportunities as the case for US exceptionalism is questioned, with valuation spreads between the US and other regions at historical highs [5][6]. - European corporates are beginning to invest for growth at a faster pace than they return capital to shareholders, with CAPEX expected to grow by 3% in 2025 [9][10]. Shareholder Returns - The total shareholder yield in Europe is close to an all-time high, with companies in the STOXX 600 returning around 5% of their market cap annually [8][142]. - The report notes a growing appetite for buybacks among European companies, despite a slight decline in insider buying activity [146][147]. Sector Performance - All sectors in Europe currently offer higher yields than their US counterparts, making the region particularly attractive for income-focused investors [9]. - The report indicates that cyclical sectors have a higher beta of earnings to world GDP compared to defensive sectors, suggesting a potential for greater returns in a recovering economy [22][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Montage with a 12-month target price of Rmb106.00, indicating an upside potential of 27.7% from the current price of Rmb83.03 [17][15]. Core Insights - Montage's 2Q25 revenue is expected to grow by 52% year-over-year (YoY) to Rmb1.4 billion, driven by the increasing demand for DDR5 and Gen-3 interface integrated circuits (ICs) [1][4]. - The net income (NI) guidance for 2Q25 is projected to be between Rmb575 million and Rmb675 million, representing a YoY growth of 62% to 90%, which is 18% higher than previous estimates [1][4]. - The company's profitability is improving due to a shift towards higher-margin DDR5 interface ICs and enhanced operating leverage [1][4]. Revenue and Earnings Projections - The report revises earnings estimates upward by 5% for 2025, 3% for 2026, and 3% for 2027, reflecting higher revenues from DDR5 interface ICs and an improved product mix [5][8]. - Revenue projections for Montage are Rmb5.775 billion for 2025, Rmb8.366 billion for 2026, and Rmb10.926 billion for 2027, with corresponding gross profits of Rmb3.489 billion, Rmb5.059 billion, and Rmb6.613 billion respectively [8][17]. Margin Analysis - The report anticipates an increase in gross margin from 60.4% in 2025 to 60.5% in 2027, alongside an improvement in operating margin from 38.9% to 45.1% over the same period [8][9]. - The net margin is expected to rise from 41.4% in 2025 to 43.4% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The strong revenue growth is attributed to the rising penetration of DDR5 interface ICs and the increasing contribution from Gen-2 and Gen-3 products, with expectations that Gen-3 shipments will surpass Gen-2 by 4Q25/1Q26 [4][5]. - The company is set to begin production of Gen-4 DDR5 interface ICs, which are anticipated to offer better pricing and margins [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment outlook for the consumer sector in China, with a preference for new consumer names that can deliver unique growth amidst demand uncertainties, while mature names face investor concerns due to fluid overall demand [2][12]. Core Insights - The overall consumption trend in China appears unexciting for 2Q25, with sequentially softer trends observed across multiple sectors, including spirits, dairy, sportswear, cosmetics, condiments, and prepared food, despite resilient headline numbers supported by trade-in policies [1][35]. - There is a divergence in stock preferences, with investors favoring new consumer brands that show strong growth potential, while mature brands are under scrutiny due to demand fluctuations [2][12]. - Structural growth opportunities are expected to drive stock outperformance in sectors such as sports brands, diversified retailers, pet food, beverages, and restaurants, while sectors like apparel, footwear OEM, and furniture remain less favored [2][3]. Summary by Sections Demand Trends - Sales trends are softening in 2Q25, with headline growth numbers steady due to trade-in policy support, but multiple consumer subcategories indicate fluid demand [35][37]. - Categories benefiting from subsidy support, such as appliances and freshly made drinks, show solid performance, while spirits and high-end restaurants face headwinds from anti-extravagance policies [38][39]. Pricing Dynamics - Emerging pricing risks are noted across various sectors, with increased competition leading to deeper discounts, particularly in the automotive and sportswear sectors [43][44]. - The report highlights a trend of rational spending among consumers, leading to weaker average selling prices (ASP) across multiple categories [30][43]. Sector Performance - The report outlines expected revenue and net income growth for new consumer names to outperform older ones from 2025 to 2027, driven by structural growth opportunities [12][21]. - Specific sectors such as pet care and freshly made drinks are highlighted for their robust growth potential, while traditional categories like spirits and dairy face challenges [11][21]. Future Outlook - The outlook for 2H25 suggests cautious optimism, with expectations of easier comparisons and continued support from trade-in policies, although growth pressures remain due to high bases and macroeconomic conditions [35][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas expansion and product innovation as key themes for future growth, particularly for companies looking to penetrate lower-tier cities and international markets [31][34].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the industry, supported by stronger-than-expected loan and credit data in June [1]. Core Insights - June money and credit data exceeded market expectations, primarily driven by robust loan extensions and strong government bond issuance [1][4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the gradual transmission of monetary policy and the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility, suggesting a potential gentle descent for USD/CNY in the coming months [1][11]. Summary by Sections Loan and Credit Data - New RMB loans in June were reported at RMB 2240 billion, surpassing Bloomberg consensus of RMB 2020 billion and Goldman Sachs forecast of RMB 2000 billion [2]. - Outstanding RMB loan growth remained stable at 7.1% year-over-year in June, consistent with May's figures [3][9]. - Total social financing (TSF) flow reached RMB 4199 billion in June, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus of RMB 3801 billion [2]. TSF and M2 Growth - TSF stock growth accelerated to 8.9% year-over-year in June, compared to 8.7% in May, with a month-on-month growth of 8.2% [3][9]. - M2 growth was reported at 8.3% year-over-year in June, up from 7.9% in May, aligning with market expectations [3][10]. Government Bonds and Fiscal Deposits - Total government bond net issuance remained strong at RMB 1409 billion in June, slightly up from RMB 1352 billion in May [4][9]. - Fiscal deposits declined in June, consistent with seasonal patterns, indicating a potential increase in money supply growth due to the use of fiscal funds [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or companies involved Core Insights - The 800V HVDC power rack is a significant development for AI data centers, with two reference designs: NVIDIA's and the OCP standard led by CSP customers [1][2] - Megmeet's design for NVIDIA features a 570kW power output and is adaptable for space-saving in data centers [4] - The OCP version, exemplified by Delta Electronics, has a total power output of 900kW and is designed for compatibility with existing AI server racks [7][10] Summary by Sections 800V HVDC Power Rack Overview - The 800V HVDC power rack is composed of three main components: PDU, PSU, and BBU [13] - The PSU section in Megmeet's design includes 19 modules, each providing 30kW, with a total power of 570kW [5] - The OCP version has a PSU output voltage of ±400V, designed for better compatibility with existing systems [7] Supplier Insights - Key suppliers for the components include Navitas for gallium nitride PFCs, Inneon and ST Microelectronics for silicon carbide MOSFETs, and Dynapack International for lithium batteries [5][10][11] - The estimated content value of the PDU is $0.15 per watt, and the PSU is $0.35 per watt, leading to a total value of $540k for a single HVDC power rack [13][15] Market Demand and Revenue Projections - Meta is expected to require about 4,000 HVDC power racks, while Google will need around 6,000, leading to a total of 10,000 racks over the next two years [12] - Revenue contributions from the HVDC power rack business could reach approximately $1.1 billion in 2026 and $1.6 billion in 2027 for each of Vertiv and Delta Electronics, accounting for about 15% and 10% of their annual revenues, respectively [16]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Gambol from Neutral to Buy, with a revised target price (TP) of Rmb120, indicating a 25% upside from the closing price on July 10 [9][33]. Core Insights - The pet food industry is experiencing significant growth, with Gambol's domestic sales expected to rise by 32% year-on-year in 2Q25, while the overall market remains fragmented, presenting opportunities for market share gains [2][9]. - The report anticipates a 19% year-on-year growth in Gambol's topline for 2Q25, driven by strong domestic performance despite challenges in overseas markets due to tariffs [1][11]. - New product development and domestic margin expansion are critical for future growth, with Gambol's innovative product offerings expected to capture market share from long-tail brands [3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - Gambol's stock price has declined by 25% since the downgrade to Neutral, but the report suggests this correction is overdone, providing a favorable entry point for investors [2]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit (NP) growth of -2% year-on-year in 2Q25, primarily due to increased expenses related to staff incentives and new factory depreciation [1][11]. Market Dynamics - The pet food market is characterized by a trend towards premiumization, with established brands like Gambol and China Pet Foods leading in sales growth [8][13]. - The report notes that long-tail brands represent 70% of the market share, indicating a potential for consolidation as consumers increasingly focus on food quality and functionality [2][9]. Financial Projections - For 2025E, Gambol's domestic revenue is projected to grow by 34% year-on-year, with a domestic net profit margin (NPM) expansion of 1.2 percentage points [32]. - The report revises the net income estimates for covered pet food companies by 0-5% to account for tariff impacts, while maintaining a positive outlook on Gambol and China Pet Foods [9][32].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on China's trade growth, with exports and imports both showing unexpected increases in June [1][9][10]. Core Insights - China's trade growth accelerated in June, with exports rising by 5.8% year-over-year (yoy) and imports increasing by 1.1% yoy, surpassing consensus expectations [1][2][9]. - The rebound in US-bound exports is a significant factor, attributed to tariff reductions following US-China trade talks [1][9]. - The trade surplus reached a record high of US$114.8 billion in June, up from US$103.2 billion in May [1][3][9]. Summary by Sections Trade Growth - Year-over-year, exports increased by 5.8% in June compared to 4.8% in May, while imports rose by 1.1% compared to a decline of 3.4% in May [2][9]. - Sequentially, exports grew by 0.8% non-annualized in June, recovering from a decline of 0.7% in May, and imports increased by 0.9% non-annualized, up from a 6.0% decline in May [2][9]. Regional Analysis - Exports to the US rebounded significantly, while exports to the EU and some emerging markets declined [10]. - Chinese imports from the US saw the largest increase in June, while imports from Latin America and ASEAN fell [10]. Product Categories - Export values for automobiles and housing-related products rose, with automobile exports jumping by 23.1% yoy in June [11]. - Import values for energy goods and metal ores increased, although imports of semiconductors, automobiles, and agricultural products declined notably [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shennan Circuits with a 12-month target price of Rmb132, up from Rmb116.92, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's performance [1][15][21]. Core Insights - Shennan Circuits is expected to see a revenue growth of 19% YoY to Rmb5.2 billion in 2Q25, with net profit remaining relatively flat at -1% YoY due to a high base effect. The gross margin is projected to be 25.3%, slightly increasing QoQ due to product mix improvements [1][3]. - The growth in AI PCB is anticipated to be a significant driver for the company's revenue, with contributions expected to reach 18% and 20% of total revenue in 2025E and 2026E, respectively [12][15]. - The report highlights the optimization of BT substrate pricing, which is expected to positively impact earnings in 3Q25, driven by rising demand and higher raw material costs [7][15]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2Q25E, revenue is estimated at Rmb5,194 million, representing a 19% YoY increase and a 9% QoQ increase. The net income is projected at Rmb600 million, reflecting a -1% YoY change [3][14]. - The gross margin is expected to be 25.3%, with operating profit at Rmb635 million, indicating an 18% QoQ increase [3][14]. AI PCB Outlook - The demand for AI PCB is confirmed to remain strong, supported by increasing orders from domestic AI customers and steady overseas demand. Shennan's PCB utilization is reported to be close to 90% [2][12]. - AI PCB is projected to be the primary driver of incremental profits for Shennan in 2025E, with significant contributions to gross profit expected [18][15]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Shennan Circuits is well-positioned to benefit from the domestic AI infrastructure cycle in China, capturing demand overflow from PCB peers that primarily serve US customers [6][15]. - The company has been expanding its capacity both domestically and internationally to leverage opportunities in the overseas market [6][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Laopu Gold (6181.HK) with a target price of HK$1,090, based on a 25x target P/E for 2027E [9][27]. Core Insights - Laopu Gold is expected to report significant growth in sales and net profit for 1H25, with forecasts of 268% and 284% year-over-year growth, respectively, reaching RMB12,963 million in sales and RMB2,259 million in net profit [1][17]. - The company is focusing on several key strategies for 2H25, including gross profit margin (GPM) management, store optimization, high ticket size SKU launches, and overseas expansion, particularly in Singapore [2][8]. - The GPM is projected to contract by 2.1 percentage points year-over-year to 39.3% due to raw material cost pressures, despite a price hike of less than 10% implemented earlier [8][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Laopu Gold's revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB8,505.6 million in 2024 to RMB27,121.8 million in 2025, with EBITDA expected to increase from RMB2,123.6 million to RMB6,603.5 million over the same period [4][28]. - The adjusted net profit for 1H25 is expected to be RMB2,409 million, reflecting a 294% increase year-over-year when excluding ESOP expenses [1][17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is experiencing strong sales per store, with an average of RMB300 million, and a same-store sales growth (SSSG) of 150% [8]. - Laopu Gold plans to expand its store network, with new openings in key locations such as Shanghai and Singapore, which are anticipated to support additional SSSG [2][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report outlines various valuation metrics, including a P/E ratio of 14.1 for 2024, increasing to 29.6 for 2025, and a projected dividend yield of 5.2% for 2024 [4][9]. - The company’s financial returns are highlighted by a CROCI of 50.1% for 2024, indicating strong profitability relative to capital employed [4][9]. Growth Projections - The report anticipates continued growth in net income, projecting RMB4,733 million for 2025 and RMB6,623 million for 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 221% and 40%, respectively [29]. - The expected margins for 1H25 include a gross profit margin of 39.3%, operating profit margin of 23.6%, and net profit margin of 17.4% [17][24].