8 July 2025 | 11:02PM HKT China: Reported nationwide childbirth subsidy – potentially a modest boost to H2 growth Bottom line: Recent media reports suggest that the Chinese government will launch a nationwide childbirth subsidy program soon (RMB 3,600 per year for each child until they turn three years old), although this has yet to be officially announced. In our view, the subsidy program reflects China's new policy thinking and long-term planning to counteract cyclical and structural growth headwinds. Bas ...

Investment Ratings - Kuaishou: Buy rated, share price increased by 55% YTD and 28% post 1Q result [3] - Tencent Music: Buy rated, share price increased by 80% YTD and 37% post 1Q result [5] - NetEase: Buy rated, share price increased by 52% YTD and 25% post 1Q result [11] - Focus Media: Buy rated, share price increased by 11% YTD and 8% post 1Q result [14] - Bilibili: Buy rated, share price increased by 31% YTD and 22% post 1Q result [18] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong rally in major games and entertainment names post 1Q25 results, driven by resilient growth profiles, disciplined competition, AI applications potential, and rising expectations on game pipelines [1] - Key focus areas for the upcoming earnings season include advertising outlook, game momentum into the summer peak season, AI applications monetization, and pricing strategies [2] - The report anticipates that further upside in share prices will require continued earnings delivery or new growth engines contributing to revenue growth in future years [1] Kuaishou - Kuaishou is expected to deliver in-line results for 2Q25 with a 12% year-over-year growth in ads and a 13% growth in GMV, with a 3Q25 outlook of 14% ads growth [3][4] - The company is positioned to improve sequential ads from 2Q onwards due to higher monetization efforts, despite competition from peers [4] - The revenue target for Kling AI has been raised from US$100 million to over US$140 million for FY25 [4] Tencent Music - Tencent Music is projected to achieve a 17% year-over-year growth in music revenue for 2Q25, with an ARPU increase of 9% [8] - The company is expected to maintain good momentum in ARPU due to lower discounts on SVIP subscriptions and new content initiatives [9] - Long-term growth visibility remains strong, with expectations of mid-teen year-over-year music revenue growth [10] NetEase - NetEase is expected to report a 15% year-over-year growth in game revenue for 2Q25, with operating profit increasing by 20% [11][12] - The company is focusing on updates for its 2026 game pipeline, with expectations of stable performance from legacy titles [13] - The stock is trading at 16X 2025E PE, with potential for further EPS upgrades [13] Focus Media - Focus Media's revenue is expected to increase by 1% year-over-year in 2Q25, with operating profit up by 3% [14] - The company anticipates a 6% year-over-year sales increase in 2H25 due to rising ad demand from internet and selective consumer players [15] - The collaboration with Alipay aims to target 400K devices across tier 1/2 locations [17] Bilibili - Bilibili's game sales are projected to increase by 58% year-over-year in 2Q25, with ads up by 18% [18] - The company is expected to face a high comparison in 2H24 but has reset market expectations lower, with potential catalysts from new game approvals [19] - Despite valuation concerns, Bilibili is expected to deliver faster than industry growth in ads and livestreaming [20] Price Targets and Estimates - For NetEase, revenue estimates for 2025-27E have been slightly adjusted downwards, while net profit estimates have been raised [21] - Focus Media's revenue estimates have been trimmed slightly, but the price target has been revised up to Rmb8.3 [21] - Across game coverage, price targets and estimates for XD have been raised due to solid new game releases and better profit margins [21]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades four stocks: Fen Wine, Luzhou Laojiao, ZJLD to Neutral from Buy, and Anhui Gujing to Sell from Neutral, while maintaining Buy on Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [9][36]. Core Insights - The current cycle for the spirits industry is likely prolonged due to the impact of the new austerity policy, with uncertainties on when the cycle will bottom out [1][14]. - The report anticipates policy headwinds to persist from 2Q25 to 2Q26, followed by a modest impact in 2H26 as improper dining restrictions for civil servants normalize [2][14]. - The spirits industry is expected to see a decline in total addressable market (TAM) by 10% to 14% in 2025-27E, with a forecasted decline of over 6% in 2025 and a -2% decline in 2026 [2][14]. Summary by Sections Risk Profiling - A policy impact ranking analysis indicates that upper mid-end and commercial banquet-focused products will face greater pressure, while Moutai is expected to remain resilient due to its gifting demand and limited exposure to government-related banquet consumption [2][12]. Earnings and Valuation Analysis - The report projects +1%/+5% aggregated topline growth for 2025/26E, down from previous estimates of +6%/+9%, with high-end spirits expected to grow by +5%/+5% and upper-mid-high end spirits facing declines of -10%/+2% [2][14]. - A bear case analysis suggests potential earnings downside risks of 6% to 18% for most spirits names compared to the base case [2][14]. Industry Growth Forecast - The spirits industry growth forecast has been revised down to a greater than 6% decline in 2025 and a -2% decline in 2026, compared to prior forecasts of +4%/+3% growth [2][14]. - The report highlights that the spirits industry has been consolidating, with leading players gaining market share, particularly in the super premium segment [2][25]. Company-Specific Insights - Moutai's wholesale price stability is supported by various measures, and the report suggests that a price below RMB 1,800 could hurt distributor profits, leading to market volatility [8][14]. - The report revises down sales and net profit estimates for various companies, including a 1% to 19% reduction for most names, reflecting the impact of the new policy [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Midea, Gree, Haier, and Hisense, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the white goods sector [27][28]. Core Insights - The white goods industry is expected to show resilience with a projected revenue growth of +9% and net profit growth of +11% year-over-year for the covered companies in 2Q25, driven by domestic demand and trade-in programs [1][25]. - Midea is highlighted as the leading player in the market, benefiting from a diversified revenue base and strong profitability, while facing manageable competition from smaller players [1][6]. - The report anticipates that domestic demand will become a more significant growth driver, particularly supported by trade-in programs and promotional events like "618" [1][5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic demand is expected to accelerate in 2Q25, following a brief slowdown earlier in the year, with trade-in programs resuming and promotional events boosting sales [1][5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to disburse trade-in subsidies starting in July, which is expected to stabilize funding and support growth [1][5]. Competitive Landscape - Increased competition in the online channel is noted, particularly from smaller players like Xiaomi, which may impact revenue growth and margins for these companies [1][4]. - Despite the competition, the report suggests that the risk of a full-blown pricing war is limited, as premium products continue to grow faster than entry-level offerings [1][4]. Company Performance Expectations - Midea, Haier, and Gree are expected to report approximately 10% revenue growth and 10%-12% net profit growth in 2Q25, while Hisense is projected to face more challenges due to a slowdown in its central AC business [4][24]. - The report fine-tunes earnings forecasts for the covered companies, adjusting estimates by -6% to 2% to reflect recent operational data [4][21]. Price Target Revisions - Price targets for the covered companies have been revised down by -11% to 2% to reflect changes in earnings per share (EPS) and target multiples [21][27]. - Midea is expected to maintain its leading position due to its diversified revenue streams and strong market presence, while Gree is anticipated to benefit from strong domestic demand for air conditioning [6][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a tactical Neutral (N) rating for equities over a 3-month horizon and an Overweight (OW) rating for equities over a 12-month horizon [5][9]. Core Insights - The current market sentiment has shifted towards a 'Goldilocks' narrative, characterized by a resilient macro backdrop and expectations of dovish monetary policy, despite potential headwinds from tariffs and a mixed growth/inflation outlook [4][15]. - The report identifies three potential risks ('bears') for the second half of the year: a significant negative growth shock, a large rate shock affecting long-duration bonds, and a deepening bear market for the Dollar [5][62]. - There is an emphasis on diversification across asset classes and regions, with specific recommendations for shorter-duration bonds, low volatility stocks, infrastructure, Gold, financials, and selective emerging market exposure [5][63]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite - The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) has rebounded to somewhat bullish levels after a rapid re-risking phase, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets [4][27]. - Despite the bullish sentiment, the report warns of elevated valuations and a modestly negative asymmetry for equities in the near term, suggesting a higher probability of drawdowns compared to rallies [47][52]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The report recommends a tactical asset allocation of Overweight in cash and equities, Neutral in bonds and credit, and Underweight in commodities for the next 3 months [5][7]. - For the 12-month horizon, the strategy remains Overweight in equities and Neutral in cash, credit, and bonds, while continuing to Underweight commodities [5][7]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to face challenges in the second half of the year, with a deteriorating growth/inflation mix primarily driven by tariff impacts [15][67]. - The report highlights that while hard data has shown some negative surprises, the labor market remains resilient, and inflation pressures have not significantly materialized [19][67]. Sector and Asset Class Insights - The report suggests that equities may face headwinds from potential tariff impacts and a slowdown in corporate profitability, particularly in the US [66][71]. - Gold is highlighted as a key safe haven asset, with price forecasts raised to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, supported by strong central bank buying [13][71]. Diversification Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of diversification in multi-asset portfolios, particularly in light of the current market dynamics and potential risks [58][62]. - Specific diversification strategies include focusing on shorter-duration bonds, quality stocks, and safe-haven assets like Gold and the Swiss Franc [71][82].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CATL A/H shares with a 12-month price target of Rmb 323.00 for A-shares and HK$ 411.00 for H-shares, indicating an upside of 19.3% and 6.8% respectively [8][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights three key focuses for CATL: unit gross profit (GP) expansion, upward trend in capital expenditures (CAPEX), and progress in the US market which may enhance the total addressable market (TAM) [15][16]. Summary by Sections Earnings Preview - CATL is expected to report revenue of Rmb 104.7 billion and net profit of Rmb 15.6 billion in 2Q25, with unit GP anticipated to increase to Rmb 150/kWh from Rmb 147/kWh in 1Q25, driven by strong overseas shipments [1][41]. Unit GP Expansion - The blended battery unit GP is projected to expand due to improved product mix, with overseas EV sales in Europe showing a 28% year-over-year growth in the first five months of 2025 [1][19]. CATL is estimated to account for about 70% of Europe's battery imports from China [1][20]. CAPEX Trends - The report revises up CAPEX forecasts for 2025-2027 by 25%-5%, expecting CATL's relative CAPEX share to rise from approximately 13% in 2024 to around 24% in 2025, which is expected to drive market share gains [16][30]. US Market Progress - Recent developments regarding Ford's Michigan LFP battery factory, which utilizes CATL's technology, suggest improved market access for CATL in the US, potentially increasing its TAM [16][19]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for CATL are set at Rmb 362 billion for 2024, Rmb 436 billion for 2025, and Rmb 532 billion for 2026, with EBITDA expected to grow significantly over the same period [3][13]. EPS is forecasted to increase from Rmb 11.58 in 2024 to Rmb 22.45 by 2027 [3][13]. Market Position - CATL's market capitalization is noted at Rmb 1.2 trillion, with a strong enterprise value of Rmb 972.5 billion, indicating robust financial health and market positioning within the battery industry [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hyperstrong with a 12-month target price of Rmb 106 per share, indicating an upside potential of 17.9% from the current price of Rmb 89.88 [15][10][3] Core Insights - The Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) is emerging as a critical solution for managing electricity grid stability during summer heatwaves in China, with record peak loads reaching 1,465 GW, an 11% year-over-year increase [1] - Hyperstrong is identified as a key beneficiary of the growing BESS demand, with projected volume growth rates of 65% in 2025, 43% in 2026, and 36% in 2027, leading to an estimated 38% EPS CAGR from 2024 to 2027 [3][13] - The cumulative tendering volume for BESS in China reached approximately 170 GWh in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 121% year-over-year increase, surpassing previous growth expectations [2][8] Summary by Sections BESS Demand and Market Trends - The demand for BESS continues to exceed expectations, with June 2025 tendering volume in China reaching 56.7 GWh, a 292% year-over-year increase [2][9] - The report notes a significant time lag of 4-8 months between tendering and installation, alleviating concerns regarding the exit of mandatory ESS installation policies [2] Company Positioning and Financial Projections - Hyperstrong is positioned as a leading BESS supplier in China, holding approximately 12% market share in 2024, with expectations of a decline to 6% by 2030 due to increased competition [13][3] - The report forecasts a 20% EPS growth from 2024 to 2030, supported by a 33% volume growth [3][13] Catalysts for Growth - Key near-term catalysts for Hyperstrong include sizable supply contracts, the launch of differentiated products, vertical integration strategies, and supportive policy reforms for the BESS business model [3][14]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's headline CPI inflation increased to +0.1% year-over-year (yoy) in June from -0.1% yoy in May, driven by rising non-food goods prices [1][4] - Headline PPI inflation fell to -3.6% yoy in June from -3.3% yoy in May, primarily due to declining commodity prices, indicating deeper deflationary pressures [1][10] - The full-year PPI inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to -2.8% and -1.0% yoy respectively, reflecting weaker-than-expected PPI data [1][11] Summary by Sections Consumer Price Index (CPI) - CPI rose to +0.1% yoy in June from -0.1% yoy in May, with a month-on-month (mom) annualized increase of +1.9% [2][4] - Food inflation slightly improved to -0.3% yoy in June from -0.4% yoy in May, with pork prices falling by 8.5% yoy [5][8] - Non-food CPI inflation increased to +0.1% yoy in June from 0.0% yoy in May, with household item prices rising by 0.6% yoy [6][9] Producer Price Index (PPI) - PPI inflation decreased to -3.6% yoy in June from -3.3% yoy in May, with significant declines in upstream sector prices [10][11] - The NBS attributed the deeper PPI deflation to falling export prices and seasonal declines in raw materials [10] - PPI inflation for producer goods fell to -4.4% yoy in June, while consumer goods remained flat at -1.4% yoy [10] Trade Data Forecast - The report anticipates a 6.0% yoy increase in exports for June, up from 4.8% yoy in May, and a 2.0% yoy rise in imports, contrasting with a decline of -3.4% yoy in May [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to iFlytek, indicating that the valuation is fairly priced [1][9]. Core Insights - iFlytek's management is optimistic about the potential of its self-developed foundation models and generative AI applications, particularly in the education and healthcare sectors [1][4]. - The company plans to continuously enhance its Spark X1 reasoning model, with upgrades expected in July 2025, to better meet client demands across various industries [2]. - iFlytek's education business is expected to benefit from generative AI, with a focus on personalized learning and interactive courses, which will strengthen its market position [3]. - The enterprise business outlook remains positive, with customized foundation models being developed for various industries, enhancing competitiveness [4]. Summary by Sections Spark X1 Upgrades - iFlytek upgraded its Spark X1 reasoning model in April 2025 and plans further upgrades in July 2025, aiming to provide tailored AI solutions for different sectors [2]. AI Education Updates - The management is positive about the education segment, leveraging generative AI to boost AI learning machine shipments and enhance product competitiveness through personalized learning paths [3]. Enterprise Business Outlook - iFlytek is focused on providing total solutions for enterprises, including customized foundation models and application software, to facilitate the adoption of generative AI across various industries [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on WH Group with a 12-month price target of HK$8.6 per share, indicating an upside of 15.9% from the current price of HK$7.42 [7]. - A "Neutral" rating is assigned to Shuanghui with an unchanged 12-month price target of Rmb25.2 per share, reflecting a modest upside of 2.4% from the current price of Rmb24.62 [8][18]. Core Insights - WH Group is expected to see a cyclical recovery in its US hog production business, with full-year profit forecasts uplifted to US$67 million, significantly above the company's guidance range [9][14]. - The China operations of WH Group are projected to return to a growth trajectory, with operating profit expected to grow by 8% year-over-year in 2Q25, following a decline of 14% in 1Q25 [9][10]. - The report anticipates WH Group's recurring operating profit in 2Q25 to grow approximately 13% year-over-year, one of the highest among traditional food companies [9][15]. Summary by Sections WH Group Financials - WH Group's market capitalization is HK$95.2 billion (approximately US$12.1 billion) with a revenue forecast of US$25.9 billion for 2025 [7]. - The company is expected to achieve an EBITDA of US$3.2 billion in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 8x for 2025E and a dividend yield of 7% [7]. - The report highlights a projected EPS of US$0.12 for 2025, with a consistent growth trajectory anticipated in subsequent years [7]. Shuanghui Financials - Shuanghui's market capitalization is Rmb85.3 billion (approximately US$11.9 billion) with a revenue forecast of Rmb59.7 billion for 2025 [8]. - The company is expected to achieve an EBITDA of Rmb8.8 billion in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 17.8x for 2025E and a dividend yield of 5.5% [8]. - The report projects an EPS of Rmb1.48 for 2025, indicating stable performance in the coming years [8]. Operational Insights - WH Group's China business is expected to stabilize in packaged meat and narrow upstream losses, although fresh meat remains under pressure due to a tough comparison base [9][10]. - The US business is projected to see a 3% year-over-year sales growth in packaged meat, with EBIT expected to decline by 3% year-over-year [13][14]. - The international segment is anticipated to trend upwards sequentially, with efficiency enhancements contributing to stable performance [15].