17 June 2025 | 10:16PM HKT New China Life Insurance (1336.HK): Key takeaways from Asia Financial Corporate Day Bottom line: We hosted NCI at our Asia Financial Corporate Day on Jun 17. The discussions centered around: 1) recent sales momentum, especially on participating products sales, and 2) investment allocation and new money yield. Company saw increasing contribution from participating products in 2Q to-date, and is aiming at 30% participating product mix in FY25. As for investment strategy, NCI's equit ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Eastroc Beverage, Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Nongfu Spring, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine, and Wuliangye Yibin [30]. Core Insights - The ongoing impact of China's anti-extravagance regulations is significantly affecting spirits consumption, particularly in the sub-premium segment, with estimated sell-through declines of approximately 30% to 50% in June [7][8]. - The intensity of future policy implementation will be crucial, especially during peak seasons like Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which could lead to further disruptions in retail demand if regulations remain strict [8]. - Brand performance is diverging, with Moutai expected to withstand regulatory pressures better due to its brand power and stable distributor confidence, while Wuliangye and Laojiao are facing more significant challenges [10][16]. Summary by Category Spirits - June sales experienced a short-term demand shock due to heightened scrutiny on civil servants' consumption, with sub-premium spirits being the most affected [7]. - The expert estimates that government and commercial-related banquets account for 30%-40% of sub-premium spirits' demand, while Moutai relies more on gifting, which constitutes over 50% of its demand [7]. - Prepayment for Moutai and Wuliangye is tracking at 56% and 50% of full-year targets, respectively, while Laojiao and Fen Wine are lagging at around 45% and 50% [9]. Brand Performance - Moutai is expected to maintain its growth target due to its strong brand power and stable distributor confidence, with a critical wholesale price level around Rmb1,800 for profitability [10]. - Wuliangye has seen a decline in wholesale prices, returning to levels last seen in 4Q24, leading to hesitance among distributors regarding prepayments [16]. - Laojiao faces greater pressure with a projected 50% decline in sell-through in Hunan Province, indicating a challenging environment for the brand [16]. Beverages - Nongfu Spring's sell-through for Oriental Leaf and bottled water has shown growth of approximately 33% year-on-year, while Tea Pie has seen a decline [16]. - Eastroc is projected to achieve 20%-25% sales growth in 2025, indicating strong retail demand for its products [16].

18 June 2025 | 10:22PM CEST Big Oils 2Q25 preview: Looking for differentiated growth, cash returns and resilience in an uncertain macro With 2Q coming to an end, we publish our early take on the European Oils' 2Q25 earnings. In an uncertain macro environment, we look for idiosyncratic growth stories (Galp and Repsol, see our Top projects analysis), resilient and superior cash returns (Shell), and asset monetization optionality (Eni and Galp). We remain well below consensus on 2026 earnings and maintain a ca ...

18 June 2025 | 6:46AM HKT Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Constructive outlook on faster SVIP penetration, non-subs business long-term potential; Raise TP, Buy | TME | 12m Price Target: $21.00 | Price: $18.20 | Upside: 15.4% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1698.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$82.00 | Price: HK$73.40 | Upside: 11.7% | We raise TME's TP to US$21/HK$82 and reiterate our Buy rating on the name. The stock has rallied +69% YTD (vs. HSTech +18%), on the back of solid music growth visibility and pr ...

2025年6月17日 | 7:12AM CST 中国 工业指标 5月份数据：工业机器人产量仍然强劲，订单趋势增长明显放缓 本月数据要点 益于强劲的电池终端市场，尤其是杭可科技开始重新获 得一线客户的市场份额。中控技术表示，来自煤化工、 电力及核电以及冶金行业的设备升级需求从5月份开始显 现，这应支撑流程自动化终端市场的增长前景，未来两 年左右时间内的总需求预计将达人民币100亿~200亿 元。 证券研究报告 Research | Equity 杜茜 +86(21)2401-8948 | jacqueline.du@goldmansachs.cn 高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司 李舟 +86(21)2401-8648 | zhou.li@goldmansachs.cn 高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司 陈豪 +86(21)2401-8812 | hao.z.chen@goldmansachs.cn 高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司 叶枝函 +86(21)2411-8029 | zhihan.ye@goldmansachs.cn 高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司 高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关 ...

15 June 2025 | 6:12PM HKT CFME (688630.SS): Mid-/-high-end PCB equipment driving growth; Active expansion to global market We expect CFME's 2Q25E revenues to grow 22% YoY / 27% QoQ to Rmb308m. We expect CFME to benefit from product mix upgrade, supported by the increasing revenue contribution from mid-to-high-end PCB equipment (60% of PCB equipment shipments in 2024) as well as semiconductor LDI (laser direct imaging) equipment. With 2Q GM sustaining at 40%, we expect 2Q25E net income to increase 12% YoY / ...

June 15, 2025 03:05 PM GMT Chagee Holdings Ltd | Asia Pacific China Consumption Trip Takeaways Key Takeaways Near-term trend: Unit GMV in China sequentially improved in May vs. Apr driven by healthy new SKU sales, increasing delivery orders and better seasonality. Food aggregator subsidies have disrupted the company's product pricing in the short term. Chagee is focusing on strengthening its products and branding rather than relying on food aggregator promotions, but needs to monitor the impact to its busin ...

14 June 2025 | 12:16AM HKT China semis: XDLK (688582.SS, Not Covered): MEMS gyroscope and accelerometer on growing client adoption; expanding to new We talked with XDLK (688582.SS, Not Covered) management recently. The company provides MEMS IMU (Inertial Measurement Unit) including MEMS gyroscope and MEMS accelerometer for industrial, energy, and innovative applications (autonomous driving, eVTOL, robotics etc.). The company delivered 1Q25 revenue growth of 292% YoY, driven by new MEMS gyroscope orders, and ...

Oil Comment: Tracking Iran Risks 1 The Brent oil price closed at $66.9/bbl on June 10. On June 11, President Trump said he was less confident about reaching a nuclear deal with Iran. 2 The EIA estimates that about 2.6 million b/d of capacity from the Saudi and UAE pipelines could be available to bypass the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a supply disruption. Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ephraim Sutherland +1(972)368-0395 | ephraim.sutherland@gs.com 18 June 20 ...

18 June 2025 | 8:32PM EDT US Daily: June FOMC Recap: Taking Higher Tariffs on Board, Cautiously (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis n FOMC participants raised their inflation forecasts and lowered their GDP growth fore ...