Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the healthcare sector, including Asymchem, InnoCare, Samsung Biologics, Shandong Weigao Group, United Imaging, and Zai Lab [29][30]. Core Insights - The China biotech sector has seen a significant re-rating, with a year-to-date increase of 72%, driven by a surge in licensing-out deals, particularly in PD-1/VEGF bispecifics, which has validated asset quality and innovation [1][2]. - Investors are optimistic about the sustainability of this momentum, with expectations for more licensing deals to follow, including potential major deals from CSPC and Sino Biopharma [2]. - The CRO/CDMO sector has also benefited from increased licensing activity, with a 25% year-to-date growth, and companies like Tigermed and WuXi AppTec are highlighted for their resilience [8]. - Medtech is showing signs of recovery, with equipment tendering up 91% year-over-year in May, although revenue recognition remains a challenge due to inventory digestion and centralized procurement processes [8][10]. Summary by Sections China Biotech Licensing and Global Pharma Engagement - The rebound in China biotech is largely attributed to licensing deals with global pharma, enhancing confidence in the quality and innovation of Chinese biotech assets [2]. - Notable licensing deals include Akeso to Summit and 3S Bio to Pfizer, which have allowed companies to monetize global market valuations through royalties [2]. CDMO/CRO Implications - The CRO/CDMO sector has seen a 25% increase year-to-date, with Tigermed reporting a 20% year-over-year increase in new orders for Q1 [8]. - WuXi AppTec and Asymchem are expected to deliver resilient earnings due to their focus on late-stage and commercial manufacturing [8]. Medtech Recovery and Tendering Trends - Medtech has faced challenges, with a year-to-date decline of 4%, but there are signs of recovery in equipment tendering, which increased by 91% year-over-year in May [8][10]. - Companies like United Imaging and Mindray are expected to turn positive in their growth trajectories in the coming quarters [8]. Global Pharma Engagement - Global large pharma continues to recognize the importance of China in their business development strategies, particularly in the context of biopharma innovation cycles [10]. - Companies like GE Healthcare and Philips remain cautious about the capital equipment procurement environment in China, despite positive tendering momentum [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Eastroc, Tingyi, CR Beverage, and Nongfu, with a preference for the beverage sector within staples due to growth potential and earnings visibility [9]. Core Insights - The beverage sector in China has shown a year-to-date rally of 19%, outperforming the MSCI China staples index, which increased by 8% [1]. - Despite rising competition, the sector is expected to sustain long-term volume growth and profit visibility into 2025, driven by a solid product cycle and cost benefits [9]. - Key debates in the beverage space include the impact of freshly made drinks (FMD) due to intensified food delivery subsidies, the ongoing product cycle, and margin resilience amid competition [1][2][8]. Summary by Sections Impact of Freshly Made Drinks (FMD) - FMD has seen a volume boost from delivery subsidies, with a potential short-term impact on ready-to-drink (RTD) soft drinks due to cannibalization [2]. - The analysis suggests a limited overall impact on the beverage industry, primarily affecting nearby soft drink points of sale (POS) [2]. - A scenario analysis indicates a potential low single-digit to mid-single-digit percentage impact on daily volume sold by RTD soft drinks, assuming a 50% cannibalization rate [19]. Product Cycle Dynamics - The product cycle remains a critical driver, with sugar-free drinks, new flavors, and sports/energy drinks gaining traction [3][39]. - New product launches, such as Eastroc's Ice Tea and UPC's sugar-free tea, are expected to contribute significantly to sales in 2025 [7][41]. - The focus on health and functional benefits continues to shape consumer preferences, leading to a rise in innovative beverage offerings [39][40]. Margin Resilience and Cost Benefits - The report highlights manageable impacts from competition risks, with cost benefits expected to continue into the second half of 2025 [8]. - Unit cost deflation is revised to 2.3% to 6.3% for the beverage segments, which is anticipated to offset potential declines in average selling prices (ASP) [8][64]. - Companies are adjusting promotional strategies and scaling down promotions for classic SKUs while benefiting from ASP hikes on larger pack beverages [64].

16 June 2025 | 6:02PM HKT Asia Economics Analyst China's Demand for New Homes to Stay Low (Shan) Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. n In 2021, we first presented our estimates of Chinese demand for new urban housing through 2050. However, ou ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment outlook for the industry, with industrial production rated at 0, fixed asset investment at -1, and retail sales at +2 [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China's industrial production and fixed asset investment missed market expectations, while retail sales showed significant growth, indicating a divergence in economic performance across sectors [1][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policy in stimulating domestic demand, particularly through consumer goods trade-in programs, amidst ongoing deflationary pressures and a prolonged downturn in the property market [1][17]. Summary by Sections Industrial Production - Industrial production (IP) growth moderated to 5.8% year-on-year in May from 6.1% in April, primarily due to slowing export growth linked to increased US tariffs [8][11]. - Sequentially, IP is estimated to have contracted by 0.1% month-on-month non-annualized in May [8]. - Key sectors such as electrical machinery and chemical manufacturing experienced slower output growth, overshadowing gains in automobile production [8][11]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth slowed to 2.9% year-on-year in May from 3.6% in April, driven mainly by declines in infrastructure and property investments [10][11]. - Manufacturing investment growth remained robust at 7.8% year-on-year in May, contrasting with the overall slowdown in FAI [10]. Retail Sales - Retail sales growth surged to 6.4% year-on-year in May, significantly above market consensus, driven by strong sales in home appliances and communication equipment [11][12]. - The growth in online and offline goods sales improved, with notable increases in restaurant sales revenue as well [11]. - The report cautions that the recent retail sales improvement may not be sustainable due to potential payback effects and funding shortages in consumer goods trade-in programs [1][11]. Property Market - Property-related activity remained weak, with property sales declining by 3.3% year-on-year in volume and 5.9% in value terms in May [13]. - New home starts and completions also showed significant year-on-year declines, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [13]. Labor Market - The nationwide unemployment rate edged down to 5.0% in May from 5.1% in April, reflecting seasonal patterns, while the unemployment rate for migrant workers increased slightly [14][17]. - Youth unemployment rates showed some moderation but are expected to rise amid the upcoming college graduation season [14][17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Hengrui Medicine with a 12-month price target of Rmb55.90, indicating an upside potential of 3.7% from the current price of Rmb53.89 [13][15]. Core Insights - Hengrui Medicine is positioned as a second-tier player in the GLP-1 space, with a comprehensive product offering that includes both oral and injectable formulations, as well as single and dual agonists. The company is expected to launch its innovative drug HRS9531 in 2026 after filing for NDA by the end of 2025 [3][13]. - The oral peptide HRS9531 has shown promising preliminary efficacy, with a placebo-adjusted mean weight loss of -3.5% at Day 29, comparable to orforglipron's -3%. However, it is less effective than Hengrui's injectable HRS-7535, which achieved -5.5% weight loss at week 4 [2][3]. - The injectable form of HRS9531 demonstrated durable weight loss, achieving a placebo-adjusted weight loss of -16.7% at week 24 and maintaining weight stability from week 32 to week 52, with changes ranging from -0.76% to 0.01% [3]. Summary by Sections Product Efficacy - The oral form of HRS9531 showed comparable efficacy to orforglipron, with a weight loss of -3.5% at Day 29, while the injectable form achieved a weight loss of -9.3% at week 4 [2][7]. - The injectable HRS9531 has completed patient enrollment for phase 3 clinical trials and is expected to file for NDA by the end of 2025 [3]. Market Position - Hengrui's competitive advantage lies in its diverse product portfolio and commercial capabilities in metabolic diseases, which could create synergies in the market [3][13]. - The company is projected to see revenue growth, with estimates of Rmb30.37 billion in 2025 and Rmb37.09 billion in 2027 [15].

Investment Rating - The semiconductor/SPE sector has a positive investment rating with specific companies like Advantest, Disco, and Tokyo Electron rated as "Buy" [2][15][24]. Core Insights - Investor sentiment towards the semiconductor/SPE sector has improved, particularly due to strong demand for AI semiconductors, with back-end companies like Advantest and Disco gaining significant interest [3][4]. - The WFE market is expected to experience low single-digit growth in both CY25 and CY26, while memory investments (DRAM/NAND) are anticipated to grow at a higher rate [2][3]. Summary by Sections Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has shifted positively compared to earlier observations, driven by strong AI semiconductor demand and recent earnings reports from major players like Nvidia and Broadcom [3][4]. - There is a growing focus on micro-level factors rather than macroeconomic concerns, as many semiconductor products are currently exempt from US tariffs [4][7]. Company Highlights - Advantest is highlighted as a "Buy" due to potential upward revisions in guidance, while Disco is also rated "Buy" for its new growth drivers beyond existing technologies [2][8]. - Tokyo Electron is noted for its growth potential and is rated "Buy" as well [15]. Market Outlook - The WFE market is projected to grow at low single-digit percentages in CY25 and CY26, contrasting with higher growth expectations in memory investments [2][3]. - The discussions indicate a selective approach among investors, focusing on specific stocks rather than the overall sector [7]. Company-Specific Insights - Among mid/small-cap stocks, Tokyo Seimitsu is rated "Sell" due to stagnant profit margins, while JEOL and Ulvac are seen as undervalued with "Buy" ratings, pending market recovery confirmations [9]. - Kioxia Holdings is under observation for its competitive position in the enterprise SSD market and potential threats from competitors [8].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative trend in the primary property market, with a weighted average property price decline of 2.4% month-over-month annualized in May, following a decline of 1.8% in April [2][10]. Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data shows that the primary market experienced a broad-based decline in property prices across all city tiers, with year-on-year changes reflecting a decrease of 3.5% in May compared to 4.0% in April [1][7]. - Despite ongoing easing policies, the number of cities with sequentially higher property prices has decreased in both primary and secondary markets [7][15]. - The report highlights that Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities saw declines of 0.8% and 2.2% month-over-month annualized in May, while Tier-3 cities experienced a decline of 3.5% [7][14]. - Local housing easing measures have been implemented, but challenges remain, particularly in lower-tier cities due to weaker growth fundamentals and oversupply issues [8][7]. Summary by Sections Primary Market Performance - The weighted average property price in the primary market fell by 2.4% month-over-month annualized in May, with a year-on-year decline of 3.5% [2][10]. - The sequential decline was observed across all city tiers, with Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities showing declines of 0.8% and 2.2% respectively, and Tier-3 cities declining by 3.5% [7][14]. Market Dynamics - The report notes an 8% year-on-year increase in new home transaction volume in June month-to-date, indicating some recovery in major cities [8]. - Inventory months in major cities decreased slightly, primarily driven by Tier-3 cities [8]. Policy Response - Policymakers have intensified housing easing efforts, including a focus on a new real estate development model and the "good housing initiative" [8]. - Continued measures are expected to stabilize home prices and support the delivery of pre-sold homes, including potential cuts to mortgage rates and expanded bank lending for specific property projects [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Trade tensions have diminished somewhat since the last FOMC meeting, with low inflation and limited signs of economic softening observed [2][5] - The FOMC is expected to maintain a cautious stance regarding tariffs and economic projections, emphasizing the uncertainty in the economic outlook [6][16] - Economic forecasts include a projected 14 percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate, leading to a peak core PCE inflation of 3.4%, GDP growth slowing to 1.25% in 2025, and an unemployment rate increase to 4.4% [7][8][17] Economic Projections - The median projection for 2025 indicates slightly higher inflation at 3.0%, lower GDP growth at 1.5%, and a higher unemployment rate at 4.5% [17][21] - The FOMC is anticipated to deliver the first of three normalization cuts in December, with a terminal rate of 3.5-3.75% expected by 2026 [25][27] - The report highlights that aside from tariffs, inflation news has been relatively soft, with wage growth expectations and new tenant rent growth declining [26][30] Tariff Impact - The report outlines that tariffs are expected to reduce GDP growth by almost 1 percentage point due to their tax-like effect on consumer spending and the uncertainty they create for business investment [8][10] - The effective tariff rate is projected to increase significantly, with over 9 percentage points attributed to tariffs already in effect [7][10] Summary of Economic Projections - Real GDP growth is forecasted at 1.3% for 2025, with an unemployment rate of 4.4% and core PCE inflation at 3.0% [19][20] - The FOMC's interest rate projections are expected to remain unchanged, with a close split among participants regarding future cuts [21][24]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in AI / AR glasses Core Insights - The consumer appetite for AI / AR glasses is increasing, driven by new product launches from companies like Meta, Xreal, Rokid, and others, alongside rising affordability and integration of AI features [1] - The total addressable market (TAM) for AI / AR glasses in China is expected to grow at a 56% CAGR from 2024 to 2030, reaching approximately US$1 billion by 2030, with shipments projected to reach 7 million units [7][15] - The report identifies seven key discussion points regarding AI / AR glasses, including consumer interest, user experience improvements, market size, and cost structures [31] Summary by Sections Consumer Interest and Use Cases - Consumers are increasingly attracted to AI / AR glasses due to features like AI smart assistants, immersive displays, social sharing capabilities, and fashionable designs [31] - The report highlights various use cases, including entertainment, work, and daily life applications, such as real-time translation and first-person video recording [34] Market Growth and Projections - AI / AR glasses shipments in China are projected to grow from 365,000 units in 2023 to 894,000 units in 2025, and further to 7 million units by 2030, indicating a robust growth trajectory [15][16] - The average selling price (ASP) of AI / AR glasses is expected to decline from US$306 in 2025 to US$192 by 2030, driven by increased volume and advancements in display technology [33] Product Development and Quality Factors - Key quality factors for consumers include display resolution, weight, materials, battery life, and available content [35] - The report outlines the cost structure for AI and AR glasses, indicating that the system-on-chip (SoC) and display components represent significant portions of the bill of materials (BoM) [37] Competitive Landscape - The report discusses various brands in the AI / AR glasses market, noting the presence of both established companies like Lenovo and emerging startups [36] - Major technology companies, including Meta and Apple, are entering the market, which is expected to enhance competition and innovation [46] Seasonal Promotions and Discounts - The upcoming 618 mid-year promotion is anticipated to drive sales, with discounts averaging 19% on AI / AR glasses compared to typical smartphone discounts [38][39]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Indian government bonds, expecting a 25 basis points cut in the repo rate, which will enhance the attractiveness of these bonds [21][24][30]. Core Insights - The Indian economy is moving towards a better growth-inflation balance, with improved consumption activity noted in April. The real GDP growth forecast for CY25 has been slightly raised to 6.3% year-on-year [21][24]. - Headline CPI inflation in March reached a 5.5-year low of 3.3% year-on-year, primarily driven by a decline in food inflation [21][24]. - Financial conditions in India have eased due to a combination of policy rate cuts and improved liquidity in the banking system, resulting in over 100 basis points of easing since January 2025 [21][24][30]. Summary by Sections Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Insights - Economists estimate that nonfarm payrolls rose by 110,000 in May, which is below the consensus of 125,000 and the three-month average of 155,000. This indicates a potential slowdown in job creation [3][4][6]. - The unemployment rate is estimated to remain unchanged at 4.2%, with average hourly earnings expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month [5][6]. Indian Monetary Policy Outlook - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% in the upcoming meeting, with further cuts anticipated in Q3 [21][23][30]. - The report suggests that the RBI may not want to maintain an ex-ante real interest rate below 1%, especially with a balanced growth outlook [23][24]. Currency and Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the Brazilian Real (BRL) and Mexican Peso (MXN) are expected to perform well in the emerging market currency space, particularly against the USD [2][4][14]. - The report also notes that the Swiss Franc (CHF) and Japanese Yen (JPY) have deviated from the regression model based on rate differentials, indicating potential trading opportunities [2][5].