Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Feihe, Yili, and Mengniu, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in light of the new child-raising subsidies [10][26]. Core Insights - The Chinese government is planning to implement nationwide child-raising subsidies of Rmb3,600 per year for each child under three years old, which is expected to significantly impact disposable income and support the fertility rate recovery [1][2][3]. - The total potential government spending on these subsidies is estimated to be around Rmb100 billion in 2025, based on a forecast of 9.3 million new births [1]. - The subsidies are expected to account for approximately 9% of the per capita disposable income, which is projected to be Rmb41,000 in 2024 [1]. Summary by Sections Government Policy - The nationwide child-raising subsidy will be effective from January 1, 2025, and will cover all eligible children, including first-borns [1][2]. - The policy includes supportive measures such as tax exemptions for the subsidies and the establishment of a grant fund to assist regional governments [1]. Demographic Impact - The report suggests that the subsidies could help recover the fertility rate, particularly among mothers aged 20-24 and 30-44, who have seen declines in birth rates compared to pre-COVID levels [3][9]. - The age group of 0-4 is expected to see a sequential narrowing of declines, returning to positive growth by 2033 [13]. Company Implications - Companies like Feihe, Yili, and Mengniu are likely to benefit directly from the subsidies, as they have significant exposure to the milk powder and dairy markets [10][17]. - Yili and Feihe have the highest exposure to milk powder sales, with 24% and 92% of their 2024 sales, respectively, being related to children's consumption [10][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on ZDT and raises the target price (TP) to NT$140 from NT$130, maintains a "Neutral" rating on Unimicron and NYPCB with TP raised to NT$97 and NT$110 respectively, and maintains a "Sell" rating on Kinsus with a new TP of NT$70 from NT$63 [8][21][31]. Core Insights - The increase in BT substrate prices in early Q3 2025, driven by T-glass and gold price hikes, is expected to improve revenue trends for substrate makers, particularly Kinsus and NYPCB, with BT revenue exposure projected to exceed 25% of total revenue in 2025 [2][3]. - The report anticipates a potential further pricing hike for high layer count ABF substrates in the coming months, which could enhance revenue and profitability outlook for substrate suppliers in the second half of 2025 [3][7]. - The T-glass shortage is expected to ease by the first half of 2026, which may stabilize pricing levels despite the current supply constraints [4][7]. Summary by Sections Pricing and Revenue Outlook - BT substrate prices have increased by 5%-20% in early Q3 2025 due to T-glass supply tightness and rising gold prices, which account for 30-40% of BT cost of goods sold (COGS) [1][2]. - The report expects improved profitability for BT substrates in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, despite potential unfavorable gross margin and operating profit margin conditions due to material cost hikes and currency appreciation [2][3]. Company-Specific Earnings Revisions - Unimicron's 2025 earnings estimate has been cut by 25% due to unfavorable foreign exchange conditions, while revenue is expected to increase by 1% [17][19]. - NYPCB's earnings estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised up by 3%, 11%, and 7% respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on substrate pricing [23][25]. - Kinsus's 2025 earnings estimate has been reduced by 16% due to unfavorable FX conditions, but 2026 and 2027 estimates have been increased by 10% and 11% respectively [28][30]. - ZDT's earnings estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised down by 17%, 1%, and 1% respectively, primarily due to unfavorable FX conditions [33][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a price forecast for Brent crude oil averaging $59 in Q4 2025 and $56 in 2026 despite an increase in OPEC+ production quotas [2][9][18] Core Insights - OPEC+ announced a production increase of 0.55 million barrels per day (mb/d) for August, exceeding both consensus and previous expectations [2][3] - The report anticipates a further increase of 0.55 mb/d for September, completing the return of 2.2 mb/d of cuts and a 0.3 mb/d increase in UAE production [4][6] - The rationale behind these increases includes a steady global economic outlook and resilient demand, as indicated by low oil inventories [3][5] - Compliance with OPEC+ compensation cuts has been stronger than expected, contributing to the revised production assumptions [9][10] - The report highlights that reduced OPEC+ spare capacity is likely to raise long-dated oil prices, estimating a decline in global spare capacity to 2.5-4% of global demand by September 2025 [14][18] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Adjustments - OPEC+ has announced a total production increase of 1.92 mb/d, which corresponds to 78% of the total voluntary cuts and the increase in UAE production [3][4] - The expected rise in OPEC+ crude production from March to September is projected to be 1.67 mb/d, reaching 33.2 mb/d by September [6][12] Price Forecast and Market Dynamics - The report keeps the price forecast stable despite the production increases, citing stronger compliance with cuts and potential upside risks to demand forecasts [9][14] - The anticipated increase in global oil demand is projected at 0.6 mb/d in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026, driven by robust demand from China and global economic activity [14][21] Compliance and Production Realization - The report notes that actual increases in OPEC+ production have been in line with quotas after adjusting for compensation cuts, with a significant portion of the increase attributed to Saudi Arabia [10][13] - The compliance rates among OPEC+ members have varied, with some countries exceeding their required production levels [10][13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Lens Tech (300433.SZ) as it is categorized as "Not Covered" [1]. Core Insights - Management is optimistic about the demand for foldable phones, driven by differentiation, new use cases, and improved technology that enhances user experience [1][4]. - The company is diversifying its end markets beyond smartphones to include vehicle glass, AI glasses, and robotics, which supports long-term growth [1][8]. Summary by Sections Foldable Phones - Foldable phones are expected to drive significant growth, with management highlighting strong market demand and potential for increased shipments [4][7]. - The global shipment penetration rate for foldable phones is projected to rise from 1.5% in 2024 to 4.1% by 2027, excluding iPhones [2]. Vehicle Glass Expansion - Lens Tech is expanding into vehicle glasses, leveraging its experience in smartphone glass to provide high-precision and lighter-weight solutions for leading car OEMs [8]. - The company is collaborating with over 30 electric vehicle manufacturers, indicating a strategic move into the automotive sector [9]. Long-Term Outlook - Revenue growth in 2025 is anticipated to be bolstered by new smartphone model launches and the increasing trend of foldable phones [9]. - Contributions from vehicle glasses and AI/AR glasses are expected to ramp up over the long term, driven by rising popularity and affordability [9].

6 July 2025 | 11:36PM KST Vietnam: US-Vietnam Trade Deal: 20% US Tariffs (40% for Transshipment) Bottom line: On July 2, President Trump announced a new trade deal between the US and Vietnam. It includes a 20% tariff on US imports from Vietnam, a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, and zero tariffs on Vietnamese imports from the US. Since over one-third of Vietnam's intermediate imports come from China, Chinese goods routed through Vietnam could be significantly affected by the 40% tariff. Mai ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC, MediaTek, and ASE, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the semiconductor industry [30][12][20]. Core Insights - There is a resurgence in investor sentiment around AI, particularly following Computex in mid-May, although many investors remain underexposed and cautious as they approach the typically soft third quarter [2][1]. - TSMC is expected to benefit from easing concerns over AI order cuts and increasing demand for advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS, with a projected revenue growth of 28.7% YoY in 2025 [5][6]. - MediaTek's AI ASIC project faces potential delays, but the long-term growth story in the ASIC market remains intact, with expectations of a 16% revenue CAGR from 2025 to 2027 [8][17]. - ASE is seeing increased investor interest due to its advancements in advanced packaging technology, with expectations for significant capacity increases in the coming years [10][11]. Summary by Company TSMC - TSMC is positioned as a leading global foundry with over 60% market share, expected to achieve a 20% revenue CAGR driven by AI and HPC demand [12][15]. - The target price for TSMC is set at NT$1,210, based on a P/E multiple of 20x [13][14]. MediaTek - MediaTek is transitioning towards AI applications, with a focus on smartphone processors and enterprise ASICs, aiming for a significant share in the US$45 billion ASIC market [17][8]. - The target price for MediaTek is NT$1,800, based on a P/E multiple of 20x [18]. ASE - ASE is recognized for its leadership in semiconductor assembly and test services, with a focus on advanced packaging technologies [19]. - The target price for ASE is NT$165, derived from a P/E multiple of 18x [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Zijin-H/A, CMOC-H/A, and MMG [2][45]. Core Insights - Chinese metal demand has shown resilience year-to-date, but growth is largely front-loaded, particularly in renewables and stimulatory consumption from the automotive and appliance sectors [1][19]. - A deceleration in demand growth for copper and aluminum is expected in the second half of 2025, with potential deeper corrections in 2026, particularly for aluminum [1][3]. - The report highlights a potential 1.2% year-on-year growth for copper and a -2.0% decline for aluminum in 2H25E, driven by a slowdown in domestic renewables [3][13]. Summary by Sections Demand Outlook - Total copper demand in China grew by 5% and 14% year-on-year in the first two quarters of 2025, while aluminum demand increased by 4% and 7% [14][17]. - The growth in copper demand is significantly influenced by rush installations in renewables, contributing 70% to the overall growth in 2Q25E [20][24]. - The report estimates that the trade-in program for electric vehicles and air conditioners contributed approximately 0.8% to copper demand growth and 1.2% to aluminum demand growth in 2Q25E [25][27]. Earnings Revisions - Earnings for Chinese copper companies under coverage have been revised down by 7% to up by 21% for 2025E-27E, reflecting updated commodity price forecasts [2][45]. - Target prices for Zijin and CMOC have been adjusted upwards, while MMG's earnings forecast has been revised down by 7% to 17% for the same period [45][46]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a tighter supply situation in the copper market due to a shortage of scrap, which may offset some negative demand outlooks [31][32]. - The ongoing US-China tariff situation has had a less severe impact on metal demand than previously feared, with a shift in production for US-bound shipments to non-China factories [23][29].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for companies IGO, NST, NEM, CMM, BGL, VAU, WGX, and PNR, while recommending a "Sell" rating for MIN and RRL [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential upside for various companies based on their current pricing and NAV valuations, with IGO showing a 2% downside to its price target and NST having a 14% upside [4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of gold and lithium sectors, with specific companies positioned favorably for growth [4][8]. Company Summaries - **IGO**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$2.1 billion, current price A$4.32, and a 12-month price target of A$5.03, indicating a 2% downside [4]. - **NST**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$17.4 billion, current price A$18.56, and a 12-month price target of A$22.53, indicating a 14% upside [4]. - **NEM**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$66.7 billion, current price A$90.58, and a 12-month price target of A$98.83, indicating a 7% upside [4]. - **CMM**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$2.7 billion, current price A$9.44, and a 12-month price target of A$10.09, indicating a 6% upside [4]. - **BGL**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$0.9 billion, current price A$0.93, and a 12-month price target of A$0.97, indicating a 29% upside [4]. - **MIN**: Rated "Sell" with a market cap of US$3.2 billion, current price A$24.44, and a 12-month price target of A$20.30, indicating an 18% downside [4]. - **RRL**: Rated "Sell" with a market cap of US$2.2 billion, current price A$4.53, and a 12-month price target of A$4.24, indicating a 1% downside [4]. Commodity & FX Forecasts - The report includes forecasts for various commodities, with gold expected to reach US$3,503 per ounce in Q4 2025 and lithium carbonate projected at US$8,005 per ton in 2025 [8]. - Nickel prices are forecasted to stabilize around US$7.17 per pound in Q4 2025, while copper is expected to be around US$4.52 per pound [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Zijin-H/A, CMOC-H/A, and MMG [2][45]. Core Insights - Chinese metal demand has shown resilience year-to-date, but growth is largely front-loaded, particularly in renewables and stimulatory consumption from the automotive and appliance sectors [1][19]. - A deceleration in demand growth for copper and aluminum is expected in the second half of 2025, with potential deeper corrections in 2026, particularly for aluminum [1][3]. - The report highlights a potential 1.2% year-on-year growth for copper and a -2.0% decline for aluminum in 2H25E, driven by a slowdown in domestic renewables [3][13]. Summary by Sections Demand Outlook - Chinese total copper demand grew by 5% and 14% year-on-year in the first two quarters of the year, while aluminum demand increased by 4% and 7% [14][17]. - The growth in copper demand in 2Q25E was significantly influenced by rush installations in renewables, contributing 70% to the overall growth [20][24]. - The stimulatory consumption from the trade-in program for air conditioners and autos contributed an additional 0.8% growth to copper demand [21][25]. Earnings Revisions - Earnings for Chinese copper companies have been revised down by 7% to up by 21% for 2025E-27E, reflecting updated commodity price forecasts [2][45]. - Target prices for Zijin, CMOC, and MMG have been adjusted upwards, with Zijin's target price revised to HK$26.5/Rmb28.5 and CMOC's to HK$9.5/Rmb11.5 [45][46]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a tighter supply situation in the copper market due to a shortage of scrap, which may offset some negative demand outlooks [31][32]. - The ongoing US-China tariff situation has had a lesser impact on metal demand than previously feared, with a shift in production for US-bound shipments to non-China factories [23][29].

4 July 2025 | 9:17AM BST European Economics Analyst EU—Trade Talks With the US: To Deal or Not To Deal (Pierdomenico/Taddei) Sven Jari Stehn +44(20)7774-8061 | jari.stehn@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Giovanni Pierdomenico +44(20)7051-6807 | giovanni.pierdomenico@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/re ...