Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for India's economy, with an upward revision of the GDP growth forecast for CY25 to 6.6% year-over-year, reflecting strong investment growth driven by public capital expenditure [6][11]. Core Insights - India's real GDP growth surged to 7.4% year-over-year in Q1 CY25, up from 6.4% in Q4 CY24, surpassing consensus expectations [3][6]. - The growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) was recorded at 6.8% year-over-year in Q1 CY25, an increase from 6.5% in the previous quarter [2][6]. - Strong investment growth was noted, particularly in public capital expenditure, which exceeded revised estimates by 0.1% of GDP for FY25 [6][7]. - The agricultural sector showed growth of 5.4% year-over-year, while manufacturing and services sectors also demonstrated robust performance [6][7]. - Despite a contraction in private consumption expenditure growth, fixed investment growth rose sharply to 9.4% year-over-year, aided by back-loaded public capex [6][7]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Real GDP growth in Q1 CY25 was 7.4% year-over-year, with a sequential increase of 2.1% [2][3]. - Nominal GDP growth reached 10.8% year-over-year, up from 10.3% in Q4 CY24 [2][5]. Sector Performance - The agricultural sector grew by 5.4% year-over-year, while manufacturing growth hit a three-quarter high of 4.8% [6][7]. - Services growth remained strong at 7.3% year-over-year, primarily driven by financial services and real estate [6][7]. Investment Trends - Central government public capex in March increased by 68% year-over-year, significantly contributing to GDP growth [6][7]. - The report anticipates continued strong rural consumption, although policy uncertainty may dampen future investment growth [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The report indicates a potential surge in freight volumes from China to the US, driven by expected increases in imports at the Port of Los Angeles, with vessel traffic projected to rise by 6% and TEUs by 39% in the coming weeks [3][4][5] - Trade uncertainty remains high due to recent court involvement over tariffs, which could impact inflation, consumer spending, and global freight flows [2][7] - The report outlines three potential scenarios for trade dynamics in 2025, with a focus on the implications of a 90-day tariff pause with China [10][11][12] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Freight Trends - The report tracks high-frequency data to assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on global supply chains, noting that while there has been a recent decline in freight volumes from China, a rebound is anticipated [5][6][14] - Container rates have shown volatility, with a recent uptick followed by flattening, indicating potential shifts in demand and supply dynamics [15][38] Trade Volume Analysis - Year-over-year (YoY) comparisons show a significant drop in laden container vessels from China to the US, with a decrease of 37% YoY and TEUs down by 34% YoY [22][14] - The report estimates that April saw an increase of approximately $4 billion in imports compared to the previous year, while May experienced a decline of about $3 billion [4][61] Future Scenarios and Economic Implications - The report presents two broad scenarios for 2025: a pull-forward surge in activity or a continued slowdown due to uncertainty, impacting inventory levels and freight demand [7][11] - Potential outcomes include a strong second half of 2025 if consumer demand rebounds or a bear case scenario if economic conditions worsen [12][15] Company-Specific Insights - Companies such as FedEx, UPS, and freight forwarders like Expeditors International and C.H. Robinson are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of increased freight activity during periods of volatility [15][85] - The report notes that intermodal traffic has declined by 5% YoY, reflecting ongoing challenges in the transportation sector [47][15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the consumer goods trade-in program in China Core Insights - China's real GDP growth is projected to be above 5% year-over-year in H1 2025, driven by stronger-than-expected exports and the consumer goods trade-in program [3][4] - The trade-in program, launched in April 2024, has significantly boosted retail sales, with January-April 2025 retail sales averaging 2.5% above the pre-trade-in program trend [3][5][6] - The program's effectiveness is attributed to expanded product coverage and increased subsidies, with the National Development and Reform Commission allocating RMB 300 billion for 2025 [5][6] Summary by Sections Impact of Trade-in Program - The trade-in program has led to a year-over-year growth of headline retail sales improving to 4.7% in the first four months of 2025, compared to 3.5% in 2024 [6] - The expansion of eligible goods categories, including mobile phones and smart home devices, has contributed to the sales boost [8][11] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - There is a large pool of potential trade-in demand for old autos and home appliances, with an estimated RMB 1.7 trillion worth of appliances aged over 8 years [20][23] - However, monthly auto trade-in applications have shown signs of slowing, indicating potential challenges in sustaining the program's momentum [24][30] Future Consumption Growth Areas - The report highlights a shift in policy focus towards services consumption, which currently accounts for 46% of household spending in China, significantly lower than the 60% seen in developed countries [35][39] - Structural issues and cultural factors are identified as barriers to increasing services consumption, necessitating substantial policy efforts for improvement [39][40]

30 May 2025 | 4:50PM EDT US Weekly Kickstart Assessing the risk to equities from elevated bond yields David J. Kostin +1(212)902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ben Snider +1(212)357-1744 | ben.snider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-7744 | kart ...

30 May 2025 | 4:55PM HKT China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker: May 30 (Song) In this note, we update four sets of high-frequency indicators that we track: 1) consumption and mobility; 2) production and investment; 3) other macro activity; and 4) markets and policy. We publish our tracker on a bi-weekly basis. 1) Consumption and mobility Exhibit 1: 30-city daily property transaction volume in the primary market was largely in line with last year's level Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Res ...

Hong Kong Exchanges (0388.HK) More listings and new product launches to drive further upside; Buy 30 May 2025 | 4:36PM HKT 0388.HK 12m Price Target: HK$455.00 Price: HK$400.40 Upside: 13.6% Although HKEX's share price has rallied ~35% ytd, on teens percent EPS upgrades and valuation expansion, it remains undervalued, in our view, relative to relatively strong recent market activity levels. Further, the listing pipeline has been building up with decent execution over the last few months. However, despite the ...

30 May 2025 | 11:10AM EDT Isabella Rosenberg Weekly Fund Flows Mostly Reallocation, Not Repatriation Global fund flows, week ending May 28 | | | Global Fund Flows Summary | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Millions USD | | % AUM | | | | 4wk sum | 28-May | 4wk avg | 28-May | | Equity | 13,835 | -9,543 | 0.02 | -0.04 | | Fixed Income | 73,446 | 19,974 | 0.21 | 0.23 | | of which: EM | 6,853 | 2,803 | 0.32 | 0.52 | | Money Markets | 31,550 | -18,879 | 0.08 | -0.19 | | FX Flows* | 64,534 | 14,408 | 0.13 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) with a 12-month price target of $220 [16][22]. Core Insights - Alphabet is strategically positioned to capitalize on the AI era, particularly within its core search business, despite investor concerns regarding potential disintermediation [17][19]. - YouTube is viewed as an underappreciated asset with significant growth potential, projected to reach approximately $99 billion in total revenues by 2029, growing at a ~13% CAGR [2][23]. - The Search & Other segment is expected to grow from approximately $198 billion in 2024 to about $318 billion by 2030, reflecting an ~8% CAGR [19][22]. Segment Analysis - **Google Search & Other Segment**: - Projected revenue growth from ~$198 billion in 2024 to ~$318 billion in 2030, with a ~55% GAAP EBIT margin [19][22]. - Current implied enterprise value for the Search & Other segment is ~$671 billion, indicating a valuation of ~5.3x EV/2026 GAAP EBIT [22][24]. - **YouTube Segment**: - Estimated to grow revenues at a ~13% 5-year CAGR, reaching ~$99 billion by 2029, with YouTube Ads growing at ~11% CAGR and Non-Ads at ~16% CAGR [2][23]. - Current operating margin is estimated at ~10%, with potential improvement to ~15% by 2030 [23][24]. - The enterprise valuation for YouTube is framed at ~$475 billion [3][23]. - **Google Cloud Segment**: - Valued at approximately $710 billion, contributing to Alphabet's overall enterprise value [3][23]. Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - Total revenue for GOOGL is projected to increase from $295.1 billion in 2024 to $406.6 billion in 2027 [4][13]. - **Earnings Projections**: - EPS is expected to grow from $8.04 in 2024 to $10.59 in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [4][13]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 20.4 in 2024 to 16.2 in 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [10][13].

市场洞察 - 重点报道 --- Market Insights - Marque e Market Insights | Markets | Equities 市场洞察 | 市场 | 股票 Thoughts on .. Tech (Mag7, TSM, SPE, Kioxia & Memory) 关于科技（Mag7、TSM、SPE、铠侠及 存储器）的思考 在同事休假期间代为⽀持销售⼯作，如有需要请告知 Backing up for our sales colleague while the y are out of office. Let me know if you need anything . Change of view on Hard data v Soft data . around six weeks ago, there was a conspicuous divergence between (surprisingly strong) hard data and (flagrantly weak) soft data. at that time, most folks (reasonably ...

市场洞察 - 重点报道 --- Market Insights - Marque e Market Insights | Markets | Asia 市场洞察 | 市场 | 亚洲 GS Macro: Five things you need to know ⾼盛宏观：五⼤要点解读 Five things you need to know: 4/ As tari concerns fade, equity investor focus shifts to the 'one big beautiful bill' (US equity analysis) 4/ 随着关税担忧消退，股市投资者关注点转向"那⼀项宏伟法案（" 美国股市分析） 5/ RBI meeting preview (6 June) – 25bps cut expected; and another in Q3. 5/ 印度储备银⾏会议预览（6 ⽉ 6 ⽇）——预计降息 25 个基点；第三季度再降⼀次。 五件你需要知道的事： 1/ GS Weekend – thought leader views and weekend macro call 1 ...