[Table_Contacts] [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|医药商业 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 医药商业行业 2024 年中报总结 门店稳健扩张，关注行业专业化发展趋势 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 零售药店板块业绩回顾。根据中康数据显示，2023 年全国零售药店全 品类销售额规模达到 5394亿元，2018年至 2023 年增长 22.26%。2022 年因疫情因素增速较高，2023 年因 2022 年基数较高，增速有所放缓。 从零售药店板块来看，从 23 年开始，疫情相关药品销售逐步回落，受 22 年 Q4 高基数影响，23Q4 各家上市公司收入及利润端增速均有所 放缓，24 年 Q1 逐渐恢复。从收入端来看，23 年 Q4 益丰药房及大参 林收入端维持正增长，24 年 Q1 均恢复正常增长。24 年 Q2 受比价政 策等行业政策变化影响，各家药店业绩均受到一定影响。根据各家药 店 24 年中报，24 年 Q2 益丰药房、大参林、老百姓收入端实现正增长， 分别同比增长 6.45%/9.07%/0.56%；除益丰药房 24Q2 扣非归母净利 润实现正增长外，其他公 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The economic feasibility of solar storage in emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America is being unlocked by adapting to local conditions on both the power supply and user sides. The concept of "solar storage parity" is defined as the overall cost of electricity from solar plus storage being lower than the benchmark coal price, which is more practical than the stricter "full parity" [2][22] - Long-term demand for solar storage in Asia, Africa, and Latin America is expected to rise due to common electricity shortages, while short-term fluctuations will be influenced by external factors such as electricity prices, power supply tightness, and policy changes [2][22] - The stability of the power grid determines the priority of solar storage development, with varying demands across different countries. Countries with strong grids are likely to see growth in both large-scale and distributed solar storage, while those with weaker grids will focus on distributed solar storage [2][22] Summary by Sections Power Supply and User Side Adaptation - The power supply side is seeing initial controllability of solar output through semi-parity, which is expected to drive the growth of centralized solar storage. A configuration of 50% storage capacity relative to daily solar output can address midday consumption issues [2][22] - The user side is experiencing rapid growth in household solar storage demand due to external catalysts that significantly shorten the static payback period. In countries where residential electricity prices exceed 1.0/1.5 CNY/kWh, the payback period is projected to be less than 7/5 years, making it attractive for investment [2][22] Country Selection and Differentiated Development Needs - The electricity price level influences the parity phase and payback period, leading to differentiated development needs across countries. Stronger grids will prioritize large-scale storage, while weaker grids will focus on distributed solar storage [2][22] - Countries like Pakistan, Brazil, South Africa, and Ukraine are showing high growth potential for solar storage driven by electricity prices and power supply tightness, while nations like Mexico, the Philippines, Egypt, Vietnam, and Thailand have significant potential for household solar storage development [2][22] Market Space Outlook - The market potential for solar storage in emerging markets is vast, as it can effectively replace traditional energy sources. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy directions in these regions [2][22] Investment Recommendations - Key companies to focus on in the solar sector include leading battery manufacturers such as JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, and JA Solar, as well as material suppliers like Juhua Group and Foster. In the storage sector, companies with technological advantages like Sungrow Power Supply and CATL are highlighted [2][22]

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 电商快递系列（二） 供给新纪元：表内供需反转与表外网络优化 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 中国快递行业：二元市场以中低端为主流，加盟网络打造极致性价比。 中国快递行业呈现以中低端为主要、中高端为补充的二元市场结构。 为满足电商客户极致性价比的寄递需求，中低端赛道不断打磨加盟网 络的供给形式，在表内自营资产投资和表外网络资产管理形成护城河。 ⚫ 表内资产：资本周期尾声，供需格局反转。加盟快递企业的表内直营 资产以土地、厂房、设备、车队为主，总部针对再投资的并驱争先自 2017 年启动，于 2021 年达峰，头部快递企业基本完成直营化、自动 化改造，行业进入产能爬坡期。在需求增长强劲的背景下，预计供需 再平衡需要 4 年时间，2025 年实现产能利用率达峰，行业盈利中枢也 有望逐渐从震荡走向稳定。 ⚫ 表外资产：网络优化中途，长期仍有空间。加盟快递企业的表外网络 资产由数千个一级加盟商和数万个二级网点构成。加盟网络不仅决定 最后 100 公里的服务和时效质量，也会影响全网运营成本。以中通为 代表的龙头公司加强对网络资产的投建和管理，探 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies within the construction materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [5]. Core Insights - The comparison between the construction materials industries in China and the United States reveals significant differences in demand, channels, and market concentration. The U.S. market is characterized by a mature operating model with established industry leaders, while China's market is still evolving with lower concentration and higher volatility in demand [2][3]. - The U.S. construction materials industry is driven by renovation demand, leading to stable growth for leading companies. In contrast, China's market is primarily influenced by new housing demand, which is subject to fluctuations [2][3]. - Future trends in China's construction materials market suggest a shift towards increased demand for existing housing and a transition to smaller B and C-end channels, similar to the U.S. market dynamics [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Comparison of U.S. and Chinese Construction Materials Industries - The report analyzes five sub-sectors: architectural coatings, waterproofing, flooring materials, multi-category building platforms, and gypsum boards, highlighting the differences in demand and market structure between the two countries [2][10]. - In the architectural coatings sector, the U.S. has a high proportion of repainting demand (83% in 2023), while China's demand is primarily driven by new housing [10]. - The U.S. market shows a high concentration with major players like Sherwin-Williams and PPG, while China's market remains fragmented with lower concentration ratios [10]. 2. Characteristics and Analysis of the U.S. Construction Materials Industry - The U.S. market is characterized by stable demand driven by population growth and urbanization, with leading companies achieving continuous revenue growth through internal growth and acquisitions [2][3]. - The demand is primarily from small B and C-end channels, with a strong presence of DIY culture, leading to a higher growth rate for channel companies compared to manufacturers [2][3]. 3. Future Evolution of China's Construction Materials Model - China's construction materials market is expected to evolve towards a model similar to the U.S., with increasing demand for existing housing and a shift towards smaller B and C-end channels [2][3]. - The report suggests that certain sectors, such as coatings and waterproofing, are likely to see better competitive dynamics and concentration levels in the future [2][3]. 4. Potential Winners in the Future Chinese Market - Companies that exhibit strong brand and channel stickiness, stable long-term demand, and the ability to concentrate in their respective sectors are likely to succeed. Notable companies identified include Three Trees, Beixin Building Materials, and Oriental Yuhong [2][3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the stability and growth potential of solid waste and water utility sectors, which are closely linked to urban residents' needs. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for national waste treatment, water supply, and sewage treatment from 2011 to 2022 is between 4% and 6% [1][30] - The report highlights that the solid waste sector has seen a significant reduction in capital expenditures (CAPEX), with a compound annual decline of over 20% from 2020 to 2023. The free cash flow to firm (FCFF) for the solid waste sector turned positive for the first time in 2023 [1][41] - The report suggests that the solid waste and water utility sectors are undervalued, with a projected average dividend yield of 3% and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of around 10x for 2024 [1][30] Summary by Sections 1. Review of Solid Waste and Water Utilities Over Ten Years - The report reviews the performance of leading solid waste and water utility companies over the past decade, noting that companies like Hanlan Environment and Hongcheng Environment achieved a compound annual growth rate of 20% and 27% in net profit from 2013 to 2023, respectively [30][32] 2. Q2 2024 Performance Review - In H1 2024, the solid waste and water sectors experienced a year-on-year growth of 12% and 6%, respectively. The solid waste sector's operating cash flow improved by 5% year-on-year [41][45] - The report indicates that the solid waste sector's capital expenditures are in a contraction phase, with a net outflow of investment cash flow decreasing by 25% year-on-year in H1 2024 [41][51] 3. Comparison of Dividend Assets - The report compares the solid waste and water utility sectors with traditional dividend assets, highlighting their strong profitability, cash flow, and debt structure. The solid waste sector's dividend payout ratio has been increasing, with leading companies maintaining an average payout ratio of 38% in 2023 [1][30] - The water utility sector maintains a high dividend payout ratio of over 50% [1][30] 4. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Hanlan Environment, Guangda Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, which are expected to benefit from stable growth and improving cash flow [1][30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that after a significant increase in electricity generation during the main flood season, there is now a downward trend in hydropower generation, leading to a divergence in market expectations [1] - The report emphasizes that the decrease in electricity generation should not be linearly extrapolated, as it is primarily linked to the completion of water storage and the operational logic of hydropower generation [1] - The report suggests that the current high water levels will enhance short-term electricity generation capacity and provide assurance for power generation during dry seasons [1] - The valuation of hydropower is expected to improve due to low volatility, stable dividends, and long-term operational capabilities [1] Summary by Sections Section 1: Trends in Hydropower Generation - The report notes that the apparent decrease in water inflow is associated with rising water levels, which have improved significantly compared to previous years [6][12] - In July and August 2024, hydropower generation from major companies like Changjiang Electric and Yalongjiang saw substantial year-on-year increases of 38.8% and 47.7%, respectively [15][24] - The report indicates that the current hydropower generation trends are influenced by the completion of water storage and the potential for increased generation efficiency [12][19] Section 2: Water Storage and Generation Expectations - The completion of water storage is expected to alleviate short-term pressure and enhance electricity generation capacity [1][12] - The report highlights that the current high water levels can lead to improved generation efficiency, with specific examples showing a 20% increase in electricity generation per unit of water [1][12] - The report suggests that the focus should shift towards the implications of water storage completion on future generation capacity [1][12] Section 3: Dividend Pricing and Future Valuation - The report discusses the dividend pricing model for hydropower, indicating a potential shift towards a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) approach [1] - It notes that the current dividend yield for companies like Changjiang Electric is around 3.3%, which aligns with historical levels [1] - The report anticipates that as financial costs decrease, profit margins will improve, leading to higher dividend payouts and enhanced valuations across the sector [1] Section 4: Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Guotou Electric, Changjiang Electric, and Chuan Investment Energy, which are expected to benefit from improved hydropower generation and water storage conditions [1][19] - It highlights that Guotou Electric is expected to maintain stable profits, while Changjiang Electric is projected to see significant performance growth due to increased electricity generation and reduced costs [1][19]

[Table_Title] 机械设备行业 8 月 PMI 环比略降，等待基本面变化 [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|机械设备 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|------------| | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2024-09-09 | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 市场表现分析：根据 Wind 数据，本期（9 月 2 日-9 月 6 日）机械行业 指数（中信）下跌 2.89%，沪深 300 指数下跌 2.71%，创业板指下跌 2.68%。 ⚫ 8 月 PMI 环比下降 0.3 个百分点。根据国家统计局 8 月 31 日公布的数 据，8 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.1%，较上月下降 0.3 个百分点，制造业景气度小幅回落。从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 为 50.4%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点，仍高于临界点；中、小型企业 PMI 分别为 48.7%和 46.4%，比上月下降 0.7 和 0.3 个百分点。从分类指 数看，在构 ...

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: BuyTransaction_BuyOrder_ratio_09150920 - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the ratio of buy transactions to buy orders during the 09:15-09:20 pre-market auction period, reflecting the buying activity in the early auction phase[7][20][22] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated using Level 2 tick-by-tick order data, focusing on the 09:15-09:20 time window. It aggregates buy transactions and compares them to the total buy orders during this period[20][22] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates good monotonicity in portfolio returns when ranked and sorted into quantiles, indicating its effectiveness in capturing early buying activity[34][36] - **Factor Test Results**: - Top-30 portfolio achieved an annualized excess return of 6.73% over the Shenzhen A-Share Index from March 2019 to May 2024 - Top-50 portfolio achieved 5.91%, and Top-100 portfolio achieved 5.82%[34][38] 2. Factor Name: BuyWithdrew_BuyOrder_ratio_09150920 - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the ratio of buy order withdrawals to total buy orders during the 09:15-09:20 pre-market auction period, reflecting the withdrawal behavior of buyers[7][20][22] - **Factor Construction Process**: Using Level 2 data, the factor aggregates the number of buy order withdrawals and compares it to the total buy orders during the specified time window[20][22] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows strong monotonicity in portfolio returns, indicating its ability to capture meaningful withdrawal patterns[42][44] - **Factor Test Results**: - Top-30 portfolio achieved an annualized excess return of 11.88% over the Shenzhen A-Share Index from March 2019 to May 2024 - Top-50 portfolio achieved 10.26%, and Top-100 portfolio achieved 8.28%[42][47] 3. Factor Name: Transaction_Order_ratio_09200925 - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the ratio of transactions to total orders during the 09:20-09:25 pre-market auction period, capturing overall trading activity in the late auction phase[7][20][22] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is derived from Level 2 data by aggregating transaction volumes and comparing them to total order volumes during the 09:20-09:25 time window[20][22] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor exhibits good monotonicity in portfolio returns, suggesting its effectiveness in identifying active trading stocks during this period[52][53] - **Factor Test Results**: - Top-30 portfolio achieved an annualized excess return of 6.49% over the Shenzhen A-Share Index from March 2019 to May 2024 - Top-50 portfolio achieved 5.94%, and Top-100 portfolio achieved 5.20%[52][59] 4. Factor Name: BuyTransaction_BuyOrder_ratio_09150925 - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the ratio of buy transactions to buy orders during the entire 09:15-09:25 pre-market auction period, combining early and late auction phases[7][20][22] - **Factor Construction Process**: Using Level 2 data, the factor aggregates buy transactions and compares them to total buy orders across the 09:15-09:25 time window[20][22] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates consistent monotonicity in portfolio returns, indicating its robustness in capturing buying activity across the entire auction period[61][62] - **Factor Test Results**: - Top-30 portfolio achieved an annualized excess return of 5.63% over the Shenzhen A-Share Index from March 2019 to May 2024 - Top-50 portfolio achieved 6.07%, and Top-100 portfolio achieved 5.47%[61][69] 5. Factor Name: SellTransaction_SellOrder_ratio_14571500 - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the ratio of sell transactions to sell orders during the 14:57-15:00 closing auction period, reflecting selling pressure at the market close[7][20][22] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated using Level 2 data by aggregating sell transactions and comparing them to total sell orders during the 14:57-15:00 time window[20][22] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows strong monotonicity in portfolio returns, indicating its ability to capture significant selling activity during the closing auction[71][72] - **Factor Test Results**: - Top-30 portfolio achieved an annualized excess return of 10.90% over the Shenzhen A-Share Index from March 2019 to May 2024 - Top-50 portfolio achieved 10.37%, and Top-100 portfolio achieved 9.98%[71][78]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.99 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE ratio of 12 times for 2024 [4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant performance increase in H1 2024, achieving revenue of 1.351 billion CNY, up 22.02% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 84 million CNY, up 93.67% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue reached 814 million CNY, a 28.34% increase year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders soaring 164.26% to 54 million CNY [2][3]. - The growth in performance is attributed to the production commencement of the Jingzhou project, which significantly enhanced capacity and showcased scale effects, alongside a reduction in impairment provisions from the previous year [2]. - The company's profitability has improved, with H1 2024 gross margin, net margin, and net margin excluding non-recurring items at 14.46%, 6.18%, and 4.85%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.33, 2.29, and 1.75 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The report anticipates continued strong growth for the year, driven by the cost advantages of the Jingzhou project and the successful launch of the color-spun yarn project, which is expected to enhance product development capabilities [2]. Financial Summary - For the years 2024 to 2026, the company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 1.33 CNY, 1.59 CNY, and 1.79 CNY, respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 3.309 billion CNY in 2024 to 4.122 billion CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 31.8%, 17.5%, and 6.0% for the respective years [3][8]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in net profit, with projections of 200 million CNY in 2024, 238 million CNY in 2025, and 268 million CNY in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 91.1%, 19.3%, and 12.5% [3][8].

[Table_Page] 中报点评|中药Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 众生药业（002317.SZ） Q2 环比业绩改善明显，创新研发顺利 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 公司发布 2024 年半年报：2024 上半年营业收入 13.64 亿元，同比 -7.96%；归母净利润 0.87 亿元，同比-58.09%，主要受中成药集采降 价、金融资产公允价值变动、计提预计负债影响；扣非归母净利润为 1.74 亿元，同比-24.28%。销售、管理、研发费用分别为 4.43 亿元（同 比-12.87%）、0.70 亿元（同比-8.59%）、0.57 亿元（同比+7.50%）， 费用率分别为 32.43%、5.10%、4.21%，体现较高的费用控制效率。 经营活动现金流 2.13 亿元（同比+235.57%）。2024Q2 营收 7.23 亿元 （同比-1.67%），归母净利润 0.36 亿元（同比-47.79%），扣非归母净 利润 1.01 亿元，环比+40.47%，环比业绩改善明显。 ⚫ 中成药短期承压，长期发展稳健。2024 上半年中成药收入 7.67 亿元， 同比-5.11%。复方 ...