[Table_Title] 轨交设备跟踪报告（七） 1-7 月铁路投资同比再超 10%，暑运客流创新高 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 1-7 铁路累计投资增速 10.5%，增量以装备采购+大修技改为主。根据 中国铁路公众号，1-7 月铁路固定资产投资完成额达到 4102 亿元，同 比增长 10.5%；7 月单月完成铁路投资 729 亿元，同比增长 9.8%。投 资持续保持在较快水平。根据国铁集团官网，国铁集团今年年初召开的 工作会议计划今年投产新线的里程目标为 1000 公里以上，我们认为今 年的投资增量将集中体现在装备采购+大修+技改部分。 ⚫ 暑运客流创历史最高水平，进一步驱动下半年招标增长。根据中国经 营报，1-7 月全国铁路客运量 25.19 亿人次，同比增长 15.55%；今年 暑运前半程客流已创下历史新高，7 月 1 日-8 月 6 日全国铁路客运量 5.13 亿人次，同比增长 5.4%，完成国铁预计全暑运期间客流量目标的 60%。投资向上+客运超预期有望进一步加大下半年装备采购招标力 度。 ⚫ 下半年动车+机车二次招标有望启动，存在超预期的可能性。根据中国 经营报，7 月全国铁 ...

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 盐津铺子（002847.SZ） 中报符合预期，成长态势延续 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 事件：公司发布 2024 年中报。24H1 实现收入 24.6 亿元，同比+29.8%； 归母净利润为 3.2 亿元，同比+30.0%。24Q2 实现收入 12.4 亿元，同 比+23.4%；归母净利润为 1.6 亿元，同比+19.1%。 ⚫ 收入端：全渠道+多品类共振，延续高成长趋势。分渠道看，直营/经 销/电商实现收入 1.1/17.7/5.8 亿元，同比-43.6%/+35.1%/+48.4%， 占比分别为 4.4%/72.0%/23.6%。分产品看，辣卤品类占 24H1 收入 36.5%，其中魔芋/肉禽/豆制品/辣卤其他收入分别为 3.1/2.1/1.7/2.1 亿元，同比+38.9%/+6.8%/+11.1%/+46.4%，其中魔芋和辣卤礼包增 长较快，整体辣卤品类同比+25.8%。此外，休闲烘焙/深海零食/蛋类 零食/薯片/果干坚果/布丁等 24H1 实现收入 3.4/3.2/2.4/2.2/2.1/1.8 亿 元，同比+12.6 ...

Xml [Table_Title] 国防军工行业 持续深化国防和军队改革，看好板块高质量发展趋势 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 持续深化国防和军队改革，看好板块中长期高质量发展趋势。8 月 8 日，据新华社，国资委、发改委联合印发《关于规范中央企业采购管 理工作的指导意见》，提出要建立健全中央企业采购管理体系，全面 推动中央企业采购管理规范化、精益化、协同化、智慧化发展。8 月 9 日，据人民日报，张又侠发表署名文章《持续深化国防和军队改革（学 习贯彻党的二十届三中全会精神）》，强调要改进武器装备采购制度， 建立军品设计回报机制，构建武器装备现代化管理体系。 ⚫ 商业航天、大飞机、低空经济进展加速，看好新域新质作为第二增长 极提高并延长板块增长中枢。商业航天方面，据我们的太空公众号， 8 月 6 日我国成功发射千帆极轨 01 组卫星。大飞机方面，据"大飞 机"公众号，8 月 5 日东航 C919 开始执飞"京陕快线"。低空经济方 面，8 月 5 日，据央广网，目前重庆已签约低空领域项目 22 个，协议 投资 240 亿元人民币，目标打造"引领全国的低空消费首创之城"。 8 月 8 日，据上海 ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|纺织服饰 2024 年 8 月 9 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 纺织服饰行业全球观察之 Moncler FY2024H1：直营渠道持续高增，亚洲业务增速高于其他区域 [Tabl | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------| | 分析师： | 糜韩杰 | 分析师： | 左琴琴 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516020001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260521050001 | | | SFC CE.no: BPH764 | | SFC CE.no: BSE791 | | | 021-38003650 | | 021-38003540 | | | mihanjie@gf.com.cn | | zuoqinqin@gf.com.cn | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： Moncler 公布 FY2024 H1 业绩（2024 年 1-6 月）。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 59.41 CNY and a fair value of 80.45 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company's performance aligns with previous forecasts, achieving a revenue of 1.631 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.21%, and a net profit of 154 million CNY, up 48.87% year-on-year [2]. - The AI trend is expected to trigger a new innovation cycle in the smartphone industry, benefiting the company as it is positioned to take advantage of new technologies and capital expenditures [2]. - The revenue forecast for the company from 2024 to 2026 is projected at 5.303 billion CNY, 6.741 billion CNY, and 7.636 billion CNY respectively, with net profits of 806 million CNY, 1.052 billion CNY, and 1.200 billion CNY [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue growth rates are projected at 26.4% for 2022, 51.8% for 2023, 19.3% for 2024, 27.1% for 2025, and 13.3% for 2026 [1][5]. - The EBITDA for the years 2022 to 2026 is forecasted to be 405 million CNY, 947 million CNY, 1.043 billion CNY, 1.352 billion CNY, and 1.545 billion CNY respectively [1][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 1.66 CNY in 2022 to 5.99 CNY in 2026 [1][5]. - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) of 18.3% in 2022, projected to be 31.5% in 2023, and stabilizing around 27.9% by 2026 [1][5].

盈利预测： gaoxiang@gf.com.cn 请注意，陈子坤,陈昕,高翔并非香港证券及期货事务监察 委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 接开关需求高景气，业绩符 合预期 [Table_Title] 华明装备（002270.SZ） 业绩符合预期，特高压+海外市场拓展成长稳健 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 事件：公司发布 24 年中报，24H1 公司实现营收 11.2 亿元，同比+23.2%， 归母净利 3.1 亿元，同比+9.6%，扣非归母净利 2.9 亿元，同比+14.9%。 毛利率 47.8%，同比-6.6pct，主要系低毛利率 EPC 收入占比提升，24H1 期间费用 1.7 亿元，同比-4.8%，费用管控能力优异，净利率 28.4%， 同比-3.6pct。24Q2 实现营收 6.7 亿元，同比+34.7%，环比+48.4%， 归母净利 1.9 亿元，同比+11.1%，环比+47.8%。24H1 现金分红 2.4 亿 元，分红率 76.9%，公司近年来保持高比例分红，彰显公司发展信心。 ⚫ 电网升级带动分接开关需求高景气，海外业务增长稳健。分产品看， 24H1 公司电力设 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy-A/Buy-H** rating to China Mobile (600941 SH/00941 HK) [3] - The current price is **102 00 RMB/71 30 HKD**, with a target price of **127 95 RMB/78 34 HKD** [3] Core Views - China Mobile reported **H1 2024 revenue of 5467 billion RMB (YoY +3 0%)**, with operating revenue of **4636 billion RMB (YoY +2 5%)** and net profit attributable to shareholders of **802 billion RMB (YoY +5 3%)** [4] - The net profit margin improved to **14 7% (YoY +0 3pct)**, with Q2 net profit margin reaching **17 9% (YoY +0 7pct)** [4] - Digital transformation revenue grew **11 0% YoY to 1471 billion RMB**, accounting for **31 7% of operating revenue (YoY +2 4pct)** [5] - 5G customer penetration increased to **51 4%**, with **5 14 billion 5G customers (YoY +10 5%)** [5] - Home market revenue grew **7 5% YoY to 698 billion RMB**, with **3 09 billion broadband customers (YoY +8 0%)** and ARPU of **43 4 RMB (YoY +0 2%)** [5] - Enterprise market revenue increased **7 3% YoY to 1120 billion RMB**, with **18 4% market share in public bidding** and mobile cloud revenue growing **19 3% YoY to 504 billion RMB** [5] - ROE improved to **12 0% (YoY +0 2pct)**, while operating cash flow decreased **18 2% YoY to 1314 billion RMB** due to increased receivables and faster payments to support the supply chain [5] Financial Forecasts - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be **1391/1466/1540 billion RMB for 2024/2025/2026** [6] - Revenue growth is expected to be **3 1%/3 4%/3 6% for 2024/2025/2026**, with net profit growth of **5 6%/5 4%/5 0%** [10] - EPS is forecasted to be **6 48/6 84/7 18 RMB for 2024/2025/2026**, with ROE stable at **10 1%/10 4%/10 6%** [10] Market Performance - China Mobile's stock performance has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a **22% increase** compared to the index's **14% increase** over the past year [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 4.43 HKD per share, compared to the current price of 3.52 HKD [3][14]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.687 billion HKD for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, and a net profit of 1.963 billion HKD, up 41.0% year-on-year [6][12]. - The photovoltaic glass segment saw revenue of 11.090 billion HKD in H1 2024, with a gross margin of 21.49%, reflecting a 6.25 percentage point increase year-on-year [6][12]. - The company plans to add two new production lines in Anhui and one in Malaysia in H2 2024, aiming to enhance production capacity [6][12]. - The solar power generation business reported revenue of 1.548 billion HKD in H1 2024, with a gross margin of 65.54%, down 4.89 percentage points year-on-year [12][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 27.212 billion HKD, with an expected growth rate of 2.2% [5][14]. - The estimated EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.44, 0.62, and 0.70 HKD per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 7.94, 5.67, and 5.00 [14][18]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic glass market is experiencing a downturn, with prices declining since June 2024, leading to a reduction in profitability for many producers [7][12]. - The industry is undergoing a consolidation phase, with several production lines being temporarily shut down to manage oversupply [7][12]. Production Capacity and Expansion Plans - The company has successfully increased its daily melting capacity to 29,000 tons, with plans for further expansion in the coming months [6][12]. - The company is strategically positioning itself in overseas markets, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [7][12]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a cautious approach to solar power project development due to regulatory changes and market conditions, with no new projects planned for H2 2024 [12][14]. - The photovoltaic glass segment is expected to maintain a leading position in profitability due to cost advantages and scale effects [7][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 73.08 CNY per share, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [4][11]. Core Views - The company announced its 2024 semi-annual performance report, showing a revenue of 11.472 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.54%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.878 billion CNY, up 29.04% year-on-year [2][3]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw a single-quarter revenue of 6.707 billion CNY, a 20.83% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.091 billion CNY, reflecting an 11.94% year-on-year growth [2][3]. - The company sold 108 million pairs of sports shoes in the first half of 2024, marking an 18.25% increase year-on-year, with 62 million pairs sold in the second quarter, a 19.23% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The performance in the second quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, attributed to the recovery of orders since Q4 2023 and improved operational capabilities, leading to enhanced gross and net profit margins [2][3]. - The report expresses optimism for Q3 2024, citing a low base from the previous year and stable downstream demand, alongside the commencement of shipments from a new factory in Indonesia [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 20.569 billion CNY, which decreased to 20.114 billion CNY in 2023, with an expected recovery to 23.889 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting an 18.8% growth rate [3][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.228 billion CNY in 2022, slightly decreasing to 3.200 billion CNY in 2023, with projections of 3.876 billion CNY for 2024, indicating a growth rate of 21.1% [3][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.32 CNY in 2024, 3.83 CNY in 2025, and 4.38 CNY in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18.36, 15.92, and 13.92 respectively [3][9].

[Table_Title] 分众传媒（002027.SZ） 24H1 经营业绩稳健增长，中期分红持续回报股东 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 事件：分众传媒披露 24 年半年报，上半年经营业绩稳健增长。24H1， 公司实现营收 59.67 亿元，同比增长 8.17%，归母净利润 24.93 亿元， 同比增长 11.74%；扣非归母净利润 21.97 亿元，同比增长 11.43%。 单季度看，24Q2，分众传媒实现营收 32.38 亿元，同比增长 10.05%； 归母净利润 14.53 亿元，同比增长 12.65%，环比增长 39.74%；扣非 归母净利润 12.52 亿元，同比增长 6.82%，环比增长 32.47%。非经常 损益中，政府补助 1.37 亿元，持有交易性金融资产、交易性金融负债 产生的公允价值变动损益以及处置交易性金融资产、交易性金融负债 和可供出售金融资产取得的投资收益 0.87 亿元（23Q2 为 1.08 亿元）。 ⚫ 24H1 快消广告主贡献收入占比进一步提升，投放韧性较强。24H1， 梯媒及其他业务中，日用消费品广告主贡献营收 35.22 亿元，同比增 长 11.66 ...