Xml [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 传媒行业:AI 行业周报 海外大厂模型迭代&成本降低，国内 AI 视频产品商业化推进 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 国内 AI 动态跟踪： 根据 SimilarWeb，上周（2024/7/15 - 2024/7/21） 国内主要 AI 大模型产品网页端访问量分别为：kimi 588.18 万次，环比 上升 3.40%；文心一言 365.70 万次，环比上升 6.59%；通义 216.20 万次，环比下降 6.56%；豆包 185.54 万次，环比下降 0.13%；智谱清 言 84.71 万次，环比上升 4.09%；讯飞星火 72.47 万次，环比下降 18.41%；天工 AI 71.64 万次，环比下降 6.20%；腾讯元宝 18.76 万 次，环比下降 5.54%。App 下载量看，根据七麦数据，kimi 12.01 万 次，环比上升 10.90%；文心一言 12.73 万次，环比下降 13.24%；通 义 33.12 万次，环比上升 413.88%，主要原因是近日通义表情包火爆 全网，大量用户使用 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the potential for high ROE and undervalued PB valuations in leading companies [1][2][40] Core Views - The food and beverage industry is entering a new cycle characterized by reduced operational scale and a return to the PB-ROE framework, with a focus on high-quality growth and demand recovery [1][2] - The industry is shifting towards a "volume reduction, price increase" model, similar to the US in the 1980s and Japan in the 1990s, with companies reducing leverage, cutting capacity, and improving free cash flow [1][2] - The market is expected to shift back to valuing high ROE companies as demand recovers and EPS expectations are revised, with leading companies in the sector likely to benefit [1][2] Macroeconomic Context - Short-term demand remains weak, with a long-term GDP growth target of around 5% [1][9] - The industry is expected to benefit from potential policy support, including fiscal measures and real estate inventory reduction, which could drive demand recovery in the second half of 2024 [9] Industry Trends - The liquor industry has seen a stabilization in production after three years of decline, with prices expected to align with PPI trends [13] - The mass consumer goods sector is following a similar path to the US and Japan, with declining volumes and rising prices, particularly in mature categories like beer and dairy [14][15] - Companies are reducing leverage, cutting capital expenditures, and improving free cash flow, which is expected to support higher dividend payouts [18][19] Free Cash Flow and Dividends - The food and beverage industry has strong free cash flow generation capabilities, with leading companies already offering dividend yields above 5% [2][30] - In a low-growth environment, companies are expected to improve free cash flow, leading to more high-dividend companies [2][30] - The PB-ROE model suggests that some companies are undervalued, with potential for higher ROE and dividend payouts [40] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu, and Mengniu Dairy, which are seen as undervalued with potential for ROE and dividend growth [2][40] - Growth opportunities are identified in companies like Yanjing Beer, Qianhe Condiment, Qianwei Central Kitchen, and Dongpeng Beverage, which could benefit from improving demand [2] Market Performance and Shareholder Returns - In weak market conditions, high-dividend assets tend to outperform, as seen in both domestic and international markets [46] - Companies like China Shenhua and Yangtze Power have seen significant stock price increases following increases in dividend payouts, driven by policy and market value considerations [48][49]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies in the mining engineering service sector, including China National Materials, Northern International, and China Aluminum International [3][4]. Core Insights - The mining engineering service industry encompasses multiple stages including exploration, design, construction, mining operations, and mine closure, serving various resource sectors such as non-ferrous, ferrous, coal, chemical, and building materials [3][11]. - The market for mining engineering services has shown consistent growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.54% from 2021 to 2023 in national mineral exploration investment [3][18]. - The average contract value for mining engineering construction is approximately 423 million CNY, with significant orders in both underground and surface mining projects [3][24]. - The report highlights a trend towards integrated mining development, with increasing collaboration between explosive manufacturing and mining engineering services [3][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Mining Engineering Services Overview - The mining engineering service industry includes five main segments: mineral exploration, engineering design, construction, mining operations, and mine closure [3][11]. - Major players include state-owned enterprises and private companies, with a competitive landscape characterized by numerous participants [3][11]. 2. Policy Drivers and Outsourcing Trends - The report notes that policy changes and the deepening of mineral extraction are driving an increase in the outsourcing of mining services, with the outsourcing ratio rising significantly from 2.7% in 2018 to 11.1% in 2023 for China Coal Energy [3][3][11]. 3. Market Potential and Growth - The domestic market for non-coal mining services is estimated to be around 286.4 billion CNY in 2024, with significant contributions from both underground and surface mining services [3][3][11]. - The global market for mining services is projected to exceed one trillion CNY, indicating substantial growth opportunities [3][3][11]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong management experience, advanced technology capabilities, and extensive client resources, particularly those providing integrated mining development services [3][3][11]. - Recommended companies include state-owned enterprises like China National Materials and Northern International, as well as private firms like Jincheng Mining and Guangdong Hongda [3][3][11].

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the construction materials sector is "Hold" [1] Core Insights - In June, the broad infrastructure investment growth showed signs of recovery, while the real estate sector continued to exhibit weak fundamentals with no significant improvements [1][9] - Cement prices increased during the off-season, indicating companies' determination to improve profitability [1][9] - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, which is expected to boost demand for construction materials [1][9] Summary by Sections Section 1: Infrastructure and Real Estate - In June, broad infrastructure investment growth rebounded significantly, while real estate completion growth continued to decline. The national fixed asset investment growth rate for January to June 2024 was 3.9% year-on-year, with real estate development investment down by 10.1% [7][9] - The monthly data for June showed real estate development investment, new construction area, sales area, and completion area down by 11.0%, 21.7%, 14.5%, and 29.6% year-on-year, respectively [9][10] Section 2: Cement Market - In June and July, cement prices in the Guangdong and Yangtze River Delta regions increased, reflecting companies' efforts to improve profitability during the off-season [1][9] - National cement production from January to June 2024 was 850 million tons, down 10.0% year-on-year, with June's production at 164 million tons, also down 10.7% [1][9] Section 3: Float Glass Market - The float glass market has seen weakening prices, with the industry operating at marginal profits and some companies facing losses. The national flat glass production from January to June 2024 was 507 million weight cases, up 7.5% year-on-year [1][9] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying stocks in companies such as Sanhe Tree, Rabbit Baby, Beixin Building Materials, and others in the construction materials sector, while also highlighting specific cement and glass companies for potential investment [1][2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - Google's Q2 FY24 financial report shows that Google Cloud revenue exceeded expectations, reaching $10.35 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.9% and 8.1% respectively. The operating profit margin for this business was 11.3%, with year-on-year increases of 6.4 and 1.9 percentage points, surpassing the overall operating profit margin growth of the company [1] - Capital expenditures for Q2 2024 were $13.19 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 91.4% and 9.8%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations and the company's previous guidance. The company believes that the risk of under-investment in AI is significantly higher than the risk of over-investment [1] - The monetization path for Google's AI is becoming clearer, with a positive cycle being established where computing power investments precede AI as a service (AIaaS) profitability. The company expects quarterly capital expenditures to remain at or above $12 billion for the year [1] - Google has over 1.5 million developers using its Gemini applications, and its AI products are enhancing the capabilities of over 2 billion monthly active users across six products. Specific examples include conversational AI assisting clients like Best Buy and Wolt, and Gemini for Workspace helping in targeted digital therapy [1] - Google's self-developed TPU and unique ASIC architecture, along with the OCS all-optical switch, are expected to significantly reduce communication hardware costs and power consumption [1] Summary by Sections Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - NewEase (300502.SZ) has a current price of CNY 101.06, with a "Buy" rating and a reasonable value of CNY 87.83. The projected EPS for 2024 and 2025 are 2.20 and 3.14 respectively, with PE ratios of 45.94 and 32.18 for the same years [2] - Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ) has a current price of CNY 93.68, also rated "Buy," with a reasonable value of CNY 189.23. The projected EPS for 2024 and 2025 are 3.44 and 5.14 respectively, with PE ratios of 27.23 and 18.23 for the same years [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry as "Buy" for several key companies, including 恒瑞医药, 翰森制药, 石药集团, 信立泰, 信达生物, and 君实生物 [4]. Core Insights - AOC (Antibody-oligonucleotide conjugates) combines the high specificity of small nucleic acid drugs with the targeted delivery of antibodies, showing potential in various therapeutic areas, including muscle diseases and tumors [2][7]. - The development of AOC is in its early stages, primarily led by small to mid-sized biotech companies in the U.S., with Avidity being a pioneer in the field [2][7]. - Clinical research indicates that AOC is demonstrating therapeutic potential, particularly in rare muscle diseases where no standard therapies are available [2][14]. Summary by Sections AOC's Unique Therapeutic Advantages - AOC's structure consists of an antibody for tissue targeting, a linker, and a small nucleic acid as an active payload, benefiting from advancements in ADC and small nucleic acid fields [7]. - Avidity's AOC 1001 is the first AOC drug to enter clinical trials, currently in Phase III for treating DM1 [8][14]. - Dyne Therapeutics and Tallac Therapeutics are also developing AOC platforms targeting muscle diseases and tumors, respectively [10][11]. Efficacy in Treating Rare Muscle Diseases - Seven AOC pipelines are currently in clinical research, with Avidity's AOC 1001 in Phase III and others in early clinical stages [14][15]. - Positive data from Avidity and Dyne in treating DM1, DMD, and FSHD highlight AOC's safety and efficacy in improving patient function [14][21]. - Tallac's data suggests potential activity of AOC in tumor treatment [14]. Investment Recommendations - AOC is expected to combine the specificity of small nucleic acid drugs with the targeted delivery of antibodies, showing significant therapeutic advantages in muscle diseases [2][14]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with mature platform technologies and strong clinical development capabilities, such as Avidity, Dyne, Tallac, and Denali [2][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the prices of raw materials for pharmaceuticals have stabilized at the bottom. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for chemical drug raw materials fell below 100 in January 2023, primarily due to downstream inventory reduction. The PPI reached its lowest point in May and June 2023 at 94.4, with a slight recovery to 95.9 in June 2024, indicating a stabilization trend [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Raw Material Prices Stabilization - The PPI for chemical drug raw materials was recorded at 99.60 in January 2023, with the entire year showing values below 100. The lowest PPI was 94.4 in May and June 2023, and it slightly increased to 95.9 in June 2024, indicating a stabilization of the overall raw material price system [6]. 2. Specialty Raw Materials (1) Hypertension Products - The price of valsartan fluctuated significantly due to supply constraints from a contamination incident in late 2018, peaking at 1800 CNY/kg before stabilizing around 720 CNY/kg from June 2023 to July 2024 [13]. (2) Hyperlipidemia Products - The export price of atorvastatin has been declining since August 2020, stabilizing at 1300 CNY/kg from July 2023 to July 2024. Lovastatin saw a significant price drop to 350 CNY/kg in January 2023, maintaining that level until July 2024 [17][19]. 3. Antibiotic Products (1) Cephalosporins - The price of 7-ACA has shown an upward trend, increasing from 450 CNY/kg in January 2024 to 480 CNY/kg in April 2024. The price of cefoperazone sodium has also seen fluctuations, with a recent increase from 700 CNY/kg in January 2024 to 720 CNY/kg in April 2024 [22][23]. (2) Penicillins - The price of penicillin industrial salt rose significantly from 80 CNY/BOU in Q3 2020 to a peak of 205 CNY/BOU in February 2022, before stabilizing around 160 CNY/BOU in January 2024 [29]. 4. Hormonal Products - The price of steroid raw materials has remained stable, with a slight increase in the price of doubleene from 90,000 CNY/ton in July 2023 to over 100,000 CNY/ton in April 2024 [36]. 5. Veterinary Products - The price of florfenicol has been on a downward trend since Q4 2021, dropping from 725 CNY/kg to 188 CNY/kg by July 2024 [40]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that in 2024, with low inventory levels, some downstream formulation companies are beginning to replenish stock. The report recommends focusing on companies such as Xianju Pharmaceutical, Puluo Pharmaceutical, Huahai Pharmaceutical, Tianyu Co., Aorite, and Aoxiang Pharmaceutical [7].

Investment Rating - The communication industry is rated as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - Google's Q2 FY24 financial report shows that Google Cloud revenue exceeded expectations, reaching $10.35 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.9% and 8.1% [1] - The operating profit margin for this segment was 11.3%, with year-on-year increases of 6.4 and 1.9 percentage points, outperforming the overall company operating profit margin growth [1] - Capital expenditures for Q2 2024 were $13.19 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 91.4% and 9.8%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates and the company's prior guidance [1] - Google emphasizes that the risk of under-investing in AI is significantly higher than the risk of over-investing [1] - The monetization path for Google's AI is becoming clearer, with a positive cycle being established through investments in computing power and subsequent monetization [1] - Google has over 1.5 million developers using its Gemini applications, and its AI products are enhancing user engagement across its platforms [1] - The report suggests that Google's cloud business revenue and profit margin growth reflect an accelerated monetization process for AI, which is expected to boost investor confidence in AI computing power [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Google Cloud revenue reached $10.35 billion, with growth rates of 28.9% year-on-year and 8.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Operating profit margin for Google Cloud was 11.3%, with significant year-on-year improvements [1] - Capital expenditures were $13.19 billion, showing substantial growth compared to previous periods [1] AI Investment and Strategy - Google is committed to maintaining or exceeding quarterly capital expenditures of $12 billion throughout the year [1] - The company is focusing on building infrastructure and enhancing its AI monetization process [1] - Specific examples of AI applications in businesses like Best Buy and Wipro illustrate the practical benefits of Google's AI tools [1] Market Position and Competitive Edge - Google is leveraging its proprietary TPU architecture and Android ecosystem to create a unique competitive landscape [1] - The integration of AI tools in devices like the Samsung Galaxy S24 demonstrates Google's influence in the market [1] - Google's AI product matrix is becoming more comprehensive, establishing differentiated competitive strategies [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the textile and apparel industry is "Buy" for several key companies, including Hai Lan Zhi Jia, Bi Yin Le Fen, and Wei Xing Co., among others [4]. Core Insights - The proportion of public funds heavily invested in the textile and apparel industry is at a low level, with a decrease in holdings from Q1 to Q2 2024. The heavy holdings in the textile and apparel sector accounted for 0.39% in Q2 2024, down 0.09 percentage points from Q1 2024, which is lower than the industry's proportion of 0.65% of the total A-share market value [2][8]. - The textile manufacturing sector saw a slight increase in public fund holdings, rising to 0.14% in Q2 2024, while the apparel and home textile sector decreased to 0.25%, down 0.1 percentage points from Q1 2024 [3][8]. - Hai Lan Zhi Jia leads in total shares held by funds, with 29,984 million shares, followed by Wei Xing Co. with 12,417 million shares [16]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - The textile and apparel industry has seen a decline in public fund holdings, with the overall attention decreasing compared to previous quarters. The textile manufacturing sector's market value proportion increased slightly, while the apparel and home textile sector saw a decline [3][8]. - The top five companies by the number of funds holding them in Q2 2024 are Hai Lan Zhi Jia (106 funds), Hua Li Group (44 funds), Wei Xing Co. (43 funds), Bi Yin Le Fen (38 funds), and Ya Ge Er (35 funds) [12][13]. Market Value Insights - In terms of total market value held by funds, Hai Lan Zhi Jia ranks first with a market value of 2.771 billion CNY, followed by Bi Yin Le Fen at 1.642 billion CNY and Wei Xing Co. at 1.558 billion CNY [2][4]. - The proportion of fund holdings relative to the total market value of companies shows Bi Yin Le Fen at the top with 11.91%, followed by Wei Xing Co. at 10.62% [2][4]. Investment Recommendations - For the upstream textile manufacturing sector, it is recommended to focus on leading companies in the supply chain and those involved in new materials such as ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers and nylon fibers. Suggested companies include Hua Li Group, Wei Xing Co., and others [3]. - In the downstream apparel and home textile sector, attention should be given to high-dividend leading companies and those positioned in the high-end and cost-effective segments, with recommendations including Hai Lan Zhi Jia, Bi Yin Le Fen, and others [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year growth of no less than 80% in adjusted net profit for the first half of 2024, with a net profit growth of no less than 30% [2]. - The increase in subscription payment rates and strong overseas performance are the core drivers of the company's outstanding performance [2]. - The company has strengthened its collaboration with AI vendors, enhancing the application range of its tools [2]. - Revenue and profit forecasts have been revised upward, with expected revenues of 3.77 billion, 4.73 billion, and 5.67 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3]. - The estimated net profits for the same years are projected to be 585 million, 789 million, and 978 million RMB respectively [3]. Financial Summary - The company's main revenue for 2022 was 2.085 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 25.2% [3]. - The EBITDA for 2024 is projected to be 715 million RMB, with a significant increase from previous years [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.08 RMB in 2023 to 0.13 RMB in 2024 [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 38.9 in 2023 to 16.0 in 2024, indicating improved valuation [3][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 8.9% in 2023 to 13.3% in 2024 [3][8].