[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|纺织服饰 2024 年 7 月 27 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 纺织服饰行业 从中国奥运领奖服变迁看国内运动鞋服行业竞争格局变化 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------| | 分析师： [Tabl | 糜韩杰 | 分析师： | 左琴琴 | 分析师： | 李咏红 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516020001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260521050001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523100001 | SFC CE.no: BPH764 SFC CE.no: BSE791 021-38003650 021-38003540 021-38003542 mihanjie@gf.com.cn zuoqinqin@gf.com. ...

[Table_Title] 计算机行业 [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|计算机 证券研究报告 从谷歌财报看 AI 投入与产出 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 谷歌发布 FY24Q2 财报，谷歌云营收占比提升。FY24Q2 公司实现营 收 847 亿美元，实现净利润 236.2 亿美元。分业务看，谷歌服务、谷 歌云分别实现营收 739 亿美元、103 亿美元，贡献营收占比分别为 87.2%、12.2%。 谷歌广告业务收入增长平稳，目前 AI 增量贡献或有限。谷歌于 2023 年 12 月推出 Gemini 大模型，此后应用于其广告业务中。23Q4-24Q2， 广告业务营收分别为 655 亿美元、617 亿美元和 646 亿美元，同比增 速分别为 11%、13%和 11%。在 Gemini 大模型推出后，谷歌的广告 业务的营收增长并未发生明显的持续增长。我们判断，尽管 AI 相关功 能推动其广告业务相关产品升级，但其体现在收入层面的增长数据并 不明显，目前 AI 在广告业务收入增长中的贡献或较为有限。 AI 拉动谷歌云业务增长，季度收入首次突破百亿美元。受益于 AI 拉动， 谷歌云增长强劲，FY2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of $19.91 per ADS, compared to the current price of $13.73 [4]. Core Views - For Q2 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 1.91 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 12.1%. The overall performance of the recruitment industry is below expectations due to macroeconomic pressures, leading to a contraction in enterprise recruitment demand [2][3]. - The company, as a leading online recruitment platform, continues to benefit from network effects, with a projected 5% year-on-year growth in additional services revenue for job seekers in Q2 2024 [2]. - The report anticipates that the user base will maintain a good year-on-year growth trend, with a slight decline in the number of paying enterprise clients due to macroeconomic impacts [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 are 7.415 billion RMB and 9.045 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.6% and 22.0% [2][3]. - Adjusted net profits for 2024 and 2025 are expected to be 2.581 billion RMB and 2.976 billion RMB, respectively [2][3]. - The report highlights a slight decrease in ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) by 0.3% year-on-year for Q2 2024, but a slight increase quarter-on-quarter [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 5.69 CNY per share based on a 13x PE ratio for 2024 [5][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.19 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 270 million CNY, up 3.8% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company focuses on upgrading existing stores and enhancing product structure, with a total of 3,655 stores as of mid-2024, adding 16 new stores and renovating 202 old ones [1][3]. - The company has strengthened its online and offline integration, attracting 5.35 million customers through online channels, generating nearly 500 million CNY in online sales [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): 10,020 (2022A), 10,133 (2023A), 10,598 (2024E), 11,126 (2025E), 11,573 (2026E) [3][11]. - Net Profit (in million CNY): 486 (2022A), 561 (2023A), 595 (2024E), 629 (2025E), 663 (2026E) [3][11]. - EPS (in CNY): 0.36 (2022A), 0.41 (2023A), 0.44 (2024E), 0.46 (2025E), 0.49 (2026E) [3][11]. - The company’s net profit growth rates are projected at 6.1% for 2024, 5.8% for 2025, and 5.4% for 2026 [1][3].

[Table_Title] 宋城演艺（300144.SZ） 24Q2 业绩符合预期，佛山项目表现亮眼 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 事件：公司披露半年度业绩预告，预计上半年实现收入 11-12.5 亿元， 同增 48.5%-68.8%，实现归母净利润 4.8-6.2 亿元，同增 58.5%- 104.8%，实现扣非归母净利润 4.77-6.17 亿元，同增 61.5%-108.9%。 经测算，单 Q2 实现收入 5.4-6.9 亿元，同比增速 6.8%-36.4%，实现 归母净利润 2.3-3.7 亿元，同比增速-6%至 52%；扣非归母净利润 2.3- 3.7 亿元，同比增速-5%至 53%。若取业绩预告中值，Q2 收入同比增 速约 21.6%，归母净利润同比增速约 23.0%，扣非归母净利润同比增 速约 24.2%，收入利润增速匹配，基本符合预期，我们判断三峡轻资 产项目一次性收入对上半年业绩有所提振。 从近期千古情场次安排上看，据宋城演艺公众号，Q2 全国 12 大千古 情合计演出 2610+场，是 2023 年同期的 136%。若剔除广东千古情演 出场次，合计演出 2240+场，是 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a current price of 23.25 CNY and a fair value of 24.41 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the special government bond funding will support the replacement of old vessels, which is expected to benefit the leading ship power company. The policy aims to accelerate the retirement and replacement of old, high-energy-consuming and high-emission vessels with new energy and clean energy vessels [1]. - The report notes that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the new subsidy policies aimed at promoting the replacement of old vessels, particularly in the inland and coastal shipping sectors. The company’s products include medium-speed engines and integrated electric propulsion systems, which align with the government's green initiatives [1]. - The earnings forecast estimates the company's EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.54 CNY, 0.77 CNY, and 1.17 CNY per share, respectively. The report maintains a fair value estimate of 24.41 CNY per share, corresponding to a 45 times PE valuation for 2024 [1]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 38,280 million CNY in 2022 to 61,244 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 13.3% [2][6]. - The EBITDA is expected to increase significantly from 1,537 million CNY in 2022 to 5,743 million CNY in 2026, indicating strong operational performance [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 336 million CNY in 2022 to 2,569 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [2][6]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in the company's profitability metrics, with the net profit margin expected to increase from 1.0% in 2022 to 6.4% in 2026 [6]. Investment Insights - The report emphasizes the company's leading position in the ship power sector and its commitment to high-end, intelligent, and green development, which aligns with national policies promoting environmental sustainability [1]. - The anticipated demand for the replacement of old vessels and the transition to new energy vessels is expected to drive growth for the company, enhancing its market share and profitability [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [4] Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued measures to support large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, with approximately 300 billion yuan allocated for this purpose [15][20] - The subsidy for replacing old home appliances covers eight categories, with subsidy rates between 15% and 20%, exceeding previous expectations [15][20] - The retail sales of the subsidized categories account for approximately 79% of the overall home appliance market, potentially driving an additional 50 to 200 billion yuan in sales [20][21] Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Support - The government will allocate around 300 billion yuan for supporting large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, with specific funds designated for home appliances [15][20] - Eight categories of home appliances are included in the subsidy program, with a maximum subsidy of 2,000 yuan per product [15][20] Market Impact - The retail sales of the eight subsidized categories are estimated to be about 6,478 billion yuan, representing 79% of the total home appliance market [20][21] - The expected impact of the subsidy policy could lead to an additional year-on-year growth of 1.2% to 9.8% in the home appliance industry [20][21] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include leading white goods manufacturers such as Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances, as well as black goods leaders like Hisense Visual and TCL Electronics [28]

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|纺织服饰 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 海外运动鞋服行业全球观察 24Q1 财报总结：库存多已恢复健康，关注上游制造机会 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 24Q1 多数海外体育用品公司营收表现中规中矩，但毛利率改善。根据 财报，除昂跑、德克斯户外、Lululemon、斯凯奇，24Q1 多数海外体 育用品公司营收同比增速仅为单位数或同比下滑，主要系受到全球经 济下行导致整体购买力下降等负面因素影响。而相较于快时尚代表公 司，代表性海外体育用品公司大多没有表现出更优增速。（1）分地区来 看，24Q1 北美、大中华地区及 EMEA/欧洲地区营收增速环比提速。 （2）分品类来看，24Q1 鞋类销售韧性更强。（3）在盈利能力方面， 24Q1 多数代表性体育用品公司毛利率有所改善。24Q1 除耐克、亚瑟 士、彪马 SG&A 费率下降之外，其他品牌 SG&A 费率均有所提升，主 要系人工成本、租金、折旧摊销以及广告费用增加。 ⚫ 多公司新财年营收增速指引放缓。根据财报，在营收指引方面，除阿迪 达斯、彪马、亚瑟士外，其他主要代表性海外体育用品公司营收增速指 引均 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|半导体 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 半导体设备国产替代趋势月度跟踪 5 月气液系统招标量居多，清洗设备国产化中标比例领先 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 5 月合计 39 项招标，以华虹、积塔、中芯国际招标为主，招标设备主 要包括气液系统、测试机、量测设备等品类。根据采招网的数据，2024 年 5 月，统计样本中的晶圆产线合计产生 39 项招标。以华虹半导体、 积塔半导体、中芯国际等产线招标为主。招标设备主要包括气液系统、 测试机、量测等品类。2024 年 1-5 月，统计样本中的晶圆产线合计招 标 243 项，其中，华虹半导体、积塔半导体、燕东科技的招标量位居 前三。整体而言，设备招标以量测、测试机、刻蚀为主。 ⚫ 5 月合计 15 项中标，以测试机、炉管、探针台设备居多，国产设备整 体中标比例约 7%，清洗设备的国产中标比例显著。中标方面，根据采 招网的数据，2024 年 5 月，统计样本中的晶圆产线上合计中标 15 台 设备，以测试机、炉管、探针台设备居多；国产设备整体中标比例约 7%，其中，清洗设备的国产中标比例显著。2024 年 1- ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|城商行Ⅱ [Table_Title] 齐鲁银行（601665.SH） 业绩高增，资产质量继续改善 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 齐鲁银行披露 2024 年半年度业绩快报，我们点评如下：24H1 营收同 比增长 5.53%，增速较 24Q1 持平；归母净利润同比增长 16.98%，增 速较 24Q1 上升 1.5PCT；24Q2 单季度营收、归母净利润同比分别增 长 5.53%、17.99%，净利润增速单季度环比回升，预计拨备对业绩增 长继续提供有效支撑。 ⚫ 资负增长稳健，存款增速环比回升。资产端，24H1 总资产和贷款总额 同比分别增长17.66%、15.31%，分别较24Q1变动-0.5PCT、-0.5PCT， 贷款增速有所回落，但依旧高位，新旧动能转换政策下信贷需求不弱。 结构上，24H1 末贷款占总资产比重 50.4%，较 23H1/24Q1 末分别下 行 1.0PCT、0.4PCT，一方面长债利率下行环境下，公司可能加大了 债券配置；另一方面，Q2 手工补息影响下，行业存款稳定性偏弱，主 动负债扩张，对应公司同业资产规模或有所扩张。负债端，24H ...