[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|国防军工 2024 年 7 月 23 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 国防军工行业 新·视角:地缘冲突向工业化战争倾斜,高效费比武器优势凸显 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|---------------------------|---------|---------------------------|---------|---------------------------| | 分析师: [Tabl | 孟祥杰 | 分析师: | 吴坤其 | 分析师: | 邱净博 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号:S0260521040002 | | SAC 执证号:S0260522120001 | | SAC 执证号:S0260522120005 | SFC CE.no: BRF275 SFC CE.no: BRT139 010-59136693 010-59133689 010-59136685 mengxiangjie@gf.com.cn wukunqi@gf.com.c ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|环保 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 环保行业 无人环卫车频落地,潜在市场或可达千亿 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 继"萝卜快跑"、"robotaxi"后,"无人环卫车"迎来多个项目落地。 伴随无人驾驶等话题热议,无人驾驶环卫车亦引发关注:2024 年 7 月 1 日,文远知行 WeRide 宣布正式落地东莞市滨海湾新区市政道路智 能环卫保洁项目,为东莞市首个 L4 级公开道路无人环卫商业化项目。 7 月 11 日广环投与赛特智能战略合作协议签约,首批合作产品无人驾 驶清扫车 GS1 下线。根据公开招投标结果公告,新战略低速无人驾驶 产业研究所不完全统计,2024 上半年我国自动驾驶领域公开 154 个中 标项目,总额近 32 亿元。而从商用项目的场景分布来看,以无人环卫 的中标项目数量(20 个)和总金额(近 3 亿元)为最高,其中招标方 以各省市城市管理和综合执法系统、物业公司、环境服务公司为主,中 标企业多通过租赁模式,为采购方提供无人驾驶清洁环卫服务。 ⚫ 住建部鼓励无人化环卫作业设备更新购置,无人环卫车潜在市场或可 达千亿元。根据住房城 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company, with a target price of 67.81 RMB per share for A-shares and 47.47 HKD per share for H-shares [3]. Core Views - The company's mid-year performance exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year profit growth rate exceeding 30%. For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.507 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30.56%, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 1.268 billion RMB, up 36.5% [1]. - The growth in the delivery of traction systems for rail transit and the extended maintenance cycle is expected to further release profit elasticity. The fixed asset investment in railways reached 337.3 billion RMB in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, indicating sustained rapid growth [1]. - The company has a significant advantage in high-voltage IGBT and is expected to further expand in the ultra-high voltage sector. As a leading domestic supplier in the ultra-high voltage IGBT market, the company is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in both the power grid and rail transit IGBT markets [1]. - The company is projected to see rapid growth in both its rail transit equipment and emerging equipment businesses. The forecasted net profits attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 are 3.83 billion RMB, 4.71 billion RMB, and 5.69 billion RMB, respectively [1]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 18.034 billion RMB, with a projected growth rate of 19.3% for 2023 and 24.1% for 2024 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 2.556 billion RMB, with a projected growth rate of 26.7% for 2023 and 23.3% for 2024 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2022 was 1.80 RMB, with projections of 2.19 RMB for 2023 and 2.71 RMB for 2024 [2]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 7.4% in 2022 to 9.4% in 2024 [2].

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|食品饮料 2024 年 7 月 21 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 食品饮料行业 2024Q2 基金持仓分析：淡季需求承压，仓位明显减配 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------| | 分析师： [Tabl | 符蓉 | 分析师： | 高鸿 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522010001 | | | | | SFC CE.no: BUQ312 | | | 021-38003552 | | 021-38003690 | | | furong@gf.com.cn | | gfgaohong@gf.com.cn | | | | | | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 板块基金持仓概述：持仓显著下滑，处于相对低位。根据基金半年报显示，SW 食品饮料总市值下滑，由 2024Q1 的 521 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the public fund's allocation in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has slightly decreased in Q2 2024 but remains at an overweight level. The current allocation ratio is 1.96%, which is 0.56 percentage points higher than the standard allocation of 1.40% [6][11] - The report highlights an increase in the allocation to the breeding industry chain, while the animal health and planting sectors have seen a decrease in holdings. The allocation to the breeding industry is now at 1.29%, up by 0.04 percentage points, while the feed sector's allocation has risen to 0.57%, up by 0.07 percentage points [11][25] - Major holdings in public funds are concentrated in leading companies within the poultry breeding industry. The report lists key stocks such as Muyuan Foods (0.48%), Haida Group (0.41%), and Wens Foodstuffs (0.37%), with respective increases in holdings [13][25] Summary by Sections Section 1: Q2 2024 Sector Allocation - The public fund's allocation in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is approximately 1.96%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points from the previous quarter. This allocation is above the standard level by 0.56 percentage points [6] Section 2: Changes in Sub-industry Allocations - In Q2 2024, public funds have increased their allocation to the breeding industry chain, with the highest allocation at 1.29%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points. The feed sector's allocation is at 0.57%, up by 0.07 percentage points, while the animal health and planting sectors have decreased to 0.01% and 0.09%, down by 0.04 and 0.12 percentage points respectively [11][12] Section 3: Major Holdings in Public Funds - The report notes that public fund holdings are concentrated in leading companies in the poultry breeding industry. Key stocks include Muyuan Foods (0.48%, +0.03pct), Haida Group (0.41%, +0.07pct), and Wens Foodstuffs (0.37%, +0.09pct) [13][25] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the pig farming sector is expected to benefit from the widening "scissors difference" between rising pig prices and falling costs, leading to overall profitability exceeding market expectations. It recommends large breeding companies such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, and smaller companies like Tangrenshen and Tiankang Biological [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 30.32 CNY per share, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [11][17]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a significant turnaround in Q2, with a projected net profit of approximately 5.5-6.0 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 193%-201%. The Q2 net profit is estimated to be around 4.7-5.2 billion CNY, driven by lower breeding costs and higher livestock prices [3][16]. - The company’s yellow chicken output has shown steady growth, with Q2 production reaching approximately 120 million birds, a year-on-year increase of about 10%. The average selling price for yellow chicken was around 13.5 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year [16]. - The scale of pig farming is rapidly increasing, with Q2 pig output estimated at 242,000 heads, an 88% year-on-year increase. The average price for pigs was approximately 16.9 CNY per kilogram, up 14% year-on-year [4][16]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2022 was 14.447 billion CNY, with projections of 15.354 billion CNY for 2023 and 17.130 billion CNY for 2024, indicating a growth rate of 29.8% in 2022 and a more modest 6.3% in 2023 [5][21]. - The EBITDA for 2022 was 1.719 billion CNY, with a significant drop to 472 million CNY in 2023, but expected to rebound to 1.929 billion CNY in 2024 [5][21]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 891 million CNY in 2022, projected to be -437 million CNY in 2023, and expected to recover to 1.255 billion CNY in 2024 [5][21]. Profitability Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.26 billion CNY, 1.71 billion CNY, and 2.30 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.52 CNY, 2.07 CNY, and 2.78 CNY [16][21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 20.44 CNY per share based on a PE ratio of 18x for 2024 [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.86 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 38.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 210 million CNY, up 20.4% year-over-year, with a net profit margin of 11.1% [2][3]. - The report highlights that despite apparent declines, the core business profitability has improved, particularly when excluding foreign exchange gains. The company is expected to maintain high growth in revenue driven by major customer orders and improvements in production efficiency [6][26]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 4.23 billion CNY, 5.42 billion CNY, and 6.84 billion CNY, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 31%, 28%, and 26% respectively [3]. - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to grow from 881 million CNY in 2024 to 1.03 billion CNY in 2026, indicating a strong upward trend in operational profitability [27]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 423 million CNY in 2024 to 684 million CNY in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 31.2% and 26.2% [27].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 互联网传媒行业 24Q2 基金持仓 A 股重仓配置比例下降,广告营销板块持仓占比提升 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ A 股传媒行业基金重仓配置比例下降。根据 Wind 数据,按申万一级行 业统计:(1)A 股来看,24Q2 样本公募基金对 A 股传媒板块重仓配置 比例为 0.67%,环比下降 0.26pct。(2)A+H 股来看,24Q2 样本公募 基金对传媒互联网板块配置比例为 3.24%,环比提升 0.49pct。根据 Wind 数据,依据我们调整后的板块股票池:(1)A 股来看,24Q2 样 本公募基金对A股传媒板块重仓配置比例为0.68%,环比下降0.26pct。 (2)A+H 股来看,24Q2 样本公募基金对传媒互联网板块配置比例为 4.14%,环比下降 0.74pct。24Q2 A 股传媒行业获公募基金重仓的上 市公司持股总市值为 99.75 亿元(QoQ-32.57%),合计持股 12.28 亿 股(QoQ-18.63%),重仓的上市公司数量 64 家(环比减少 12 家), 从低配 1.02% ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报(2024 年第 29 期) 电煤需求季节性回升,产业链库存压力逐步缓解 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 近期市场动态:煤价稳中略降,动力煤产业链库存压力逐步下降。根 据汾渭能源,动力煤方面,CCI5500 大卡煤价 7 月 19 日最新报价 853 元/吨,周环比下跌 3 元/吨。年度长协 7 月港口 5500 大卡煤价为 700 元/吨,环比持平。本周港口和产地煤价略有下滑,7 月中旬以来,南 方大部分地区持续高温,电厂日耗回升较快,但西南、华中等地水电高 发,对火电有一定抑制,叠加长协煤和进口煤的补充,下游采购需求暂 无明显改观。预计随着气温继续升高,以及贸易商和电厂库存消耗,煤 价有望逐步企稳回升。下半年煤价支撑主要来自:(1)国内供给 5 月 以来虽有恢复,同比仍延续下降;(2)下半年旺季需求支撑明显;(3) 库存对煤价的压制正在缓解。焦煤方面,本周国内焦煤市场价格稳中 有降。需求端,根据 Wind,6 月下旬下游焦炭价格提涨 50 元/吨落地, 二轮提涨未能落地,目前产业链处于需 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 配置比例被动上升 ——2024Q2 公募基金银行持仓分析 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ Wind 数据显示公募基金 2024 年 2 季度报告披露完毕,我们分析如下: ⚫ 公募基金配置银行比例被动回升。24Q2 末主动型基金前十大重仓中配 置银行板块 403 亿元,占公募基金总持仓 2.7%,较 24Q1 末边际回升 0.31pct;低配银行板块 4.64pct,较 24Q1 末增加 0.47pct。低配比例 走扩,意味着银行板块配置比例上升主要受股价上涨驱动,而非公募 基金主动加仓。从股价来看,24Q2 银行板块逆市上涨,银行(中信)指 数上涨 7.6%,万得全 A 下跌 5.3%,沪深 300 下跌 2.1%,中证 800 下跌 3.3%。24Q2 末银行板块市值 8.03 万亿元,在 A 股中占比 9.46%, 较 24Q1 环比上升 0.36pct;银行 A 股自由流通市值 2.38 万亿元,在 A 股中占比 7.37%,较 24Q1 环比上升 0.29pct。但根据持仓股数环比 变动乘以平 ...