[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 互联网传媒行业 24Q2 基金持仓 A 股重仓配置比例下降,广告营销板块持仓占比提升 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ A 股传媒行业基金重仓配置比例下降。根据 Wind 数据,按申万一级行 业统计:(1)A 股来看,24Q2 样本公募基金对 A 股传媒板块重仓配置 比例为 0.67%,环比下降 0.26pct。(2)A+H 股来看,24Q2 样本公募 基金对传媒互联网板块配置比例为 3.24%,环比提升 0.49pct。根据 Wind 数据,依据我们调整后的板块股票池:(1)A 股来看,24Q2 样 本公募基金对A股传媒板块重仓配置比例为0.68%,环比下降0.26pct。 (2)A+H 股来看,24Q2 样本公募基金对传媒互联网板块配置比例为 4.14%,环比下降 0.74pct。24Q2 A 股传媒行业获公募基金重仓的上 市公司持股总市值为 99.75 亿元(QoQ-32.57%),合计持股 12.28 亿 股(QoQ-18.63%),重仓的上市公司数量 64 家(环比减少 12 家), 从低配 1.02% ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报(2024 年第 29 期) 电煤需求季节性回升,产业链库存压力逐步缓解 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 近期市场动态:煤价稳中略降,动力煤产业链库存压力逐步下降。根 据汾渭能源,动力煤方面,CCI5500 大卡煤价 7 月 19 日最新报价 853 元/吨,周环比下跌 3 元/吨。年度长协 7 月港口 5500 大卡煤价为 700 元/吨,环比持平。本周港口和产地煤价略有下滑,7 月中旬以来,南 方大部分地区持续高温,电厂日耗回升较快,但西南、华中等地水电高 发,对火电有一定抑制,叠加长协煤和进口煤的补充,下游采购需求暂 无明显改观。预计随着气温继续升高,以及贸易商和电厂库存消耗,煤 价有望逐步企稳回升。下半年煤价支撑主要来自:(1)国内供给 5 月 以来虽有恢复,同比仍延续下降;(2)下半年旺季需求支撑明显;(3) 库存对煤价的压制正在缓解。焦煤方面,本周国内焦煤市场价格稳中 有降。需求端,根据 Wind,6 月下旬下游焦炭价格提涨 50 元/吨落地, 二轮提涨未能落地,目前产业链处于需 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 配置比例被动上升 ——2024Q2 公募基金银行持仓分析 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ Wind 数据显示公募基金 2024 年 2 季度报告披露完毕,我们分析如下: ⚫ 公募基金配置银行比例被动回升。24Q2 末主动型基金前十大重仓中配 置银行板块 403 亿元,占公募基金总持仓 2.7%,较 24Q1 末边际回升 0.31pct;低配银行板块 4.64pct,较 24Q1 末增加 0.47pct。低配比例 走扩,意味着银行板块配置比例上升主要受股价上涨驱动,而非公募 基金主动加仓。从股价来看,24Q2 银行板块逆市上涨,银行(中信)指 数上涨 7.6%,万得全 A 下跌 5.3%,沪深 300 下跌 2.1%,中证 800 下跌 3.3%。24Q2 末银行板块市值 8.03 万亿元,在 A 股中占比 9.46%, 较 24Q1 环比上升 0.36pct;银行 A 股自由流通市值 2.38 万亿元,在 A 股中占比 7.37%,较 24Q1 环比上升 0.29pct。但根据持仓股数环比 变动乘以平 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|环保 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 环保行业深度跟踪 24H1 板块基金持仓稳定,运营类资产受机构青睐 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 建议关注:(1)设备类:聚光科技、美埃科技、景津装备等;(2)固废: 瀚蓝环境、光大环境、海螺创业、三峰环境;(3)水务:北控水务集 团、洪城环境等;(4)再生资源:赛恩斯、朗坤环境等。 ⚫ 截至 2024H1 末,环保股基金配置占比达 0.35%,占比维持稳定。根 据 Wind,2022 年下半年开始广发环保样本股基金配置占比逐渐回暖, 截至 2024H1 末广发环保样本股基金配置占比达 0.35%,同比下降 0.02pct,基本保持稳定,但是较 22H1 增长 0.12pct,22H1 到 24H1 占比提升比例近 50%;环比来看,24H1 环保股基金配置占比环比下降 0.04pct。板块持仓比例持续处于历史低位,关注底部反转机会。 ⚫ 结构上来看,"运营类"环保公司获基金显著加仓。根据 Wind,从环 保板块机构持仓比重前十大来看,运营类资产占比过半,且都有在 24H1 大幅获基金加仓,例如瀚蓝环境、伟明 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|非银金融 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 非银金融行业 证券行业基金持仓延续走低,保险行业基 金持仓低位回升 —2024Q2 公募基金持仓分析 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 2024 年二季度,新发行基金数及份额分别环比增长 14%、71%。根据 万得数据,以基金成立日为统计口径,2024Q2 单季新发行基金总数约 333 只,同比 2023Q2 的 319 只有所上升、环比 2024Q1 的 292 只明 显增长;当期发行份额约 4173 亿份,同比 2023Q2(2552 亿份)大 幅增加,同比增加 64%。环比 2024Q1(2434 亿份)增加 71%。 ⚫ 基于公募基金 2024 年半年报,我们统计开放式股票型基金(不含指数 型)、开放式偏股混合型基金、开放式灵活配置型基金和封闭式股票型 基金(不含指数型)的前十大重仓股配置情况。非银金融行业总市值占 比较 2024Q1 的 0.68%上升至 0.74%,环比修复,但仍然延续低配。 ⚫ 证券板块:根据 wind 数据,证券板块公募基金持股比例从 2024Q1 的 0.46%下降至 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 5.39 HKD per share based on a 15x price-to-earnings ratio for the fiscal year 2024/25 [5][19]. Core Views - The company's fiscal year 2023/24 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 23.214 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%, and a net profit of 3.074 billion RMB, up 43.7%. The earnings per share (EPS) was 0.28 RMB, and the annual dividend was approximately 0.25 HKD per share [3][9]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in fiscal year 2024/25, driven by brand enhancement, channel optimization, and customer experience improvements in its main brand, Bosideng. The OEM business is also anticipated to grow rapidly due to recovering demand and supply chain advantages [3][17]. - The recent share placement is not expected to impact the company's operations negatively, as it reflects the controlling shareholder's confidence in the company's future development [3][18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2023/24, the company reported a revenue of 23.214 billion RMB, a 38.4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.074 billion RMB, reflecting a 43.7% growth. The EPS was 0.28 RMB, with a dividend yield of 6.23% [9][10]. - The brand down jacket business generated 19.521 billion RMB in revenue, up 43.8%, while the OEM business brought in 2.670 billion RMB, a 16.4% increase. Women's clothing revenue was 820 million RMB, up 16.6%, and diversified clothing revenue was 203 million RMB, a slight increase of 0.3% [10][12]. Business Segments - The main brand, Bosideng, is expected to continue its rapid growth through brand positioning and product innovation. The Snow Flying brand is also projected to capture the high-value down jacket market, while the OEM business is set to benefit from improved demand and supply chain management [3][17]. - The online sales for the brand down jacket business reached 6.836 billion RMB, a 41.3% increase, accounting for 35.0% of total revenue [10][14]. Profitability and Forecast - The report forecasts EPS for the fiscal years 2024/25, 2025/26, and 2026/27 to be 0.33 RMB, 0.38 RMB, and 0.44 RMB, respectively. The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 22.38% in 2024/25 [19][24]. - The overall gross margin for the company is 59.6%, with the brand down jacket business margin at 65.0%. The OEM business margin is 20.6%, reflecting effective cost management [14][15].

Industry Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - Fund allocation to the building materials sector decreased to 0.66% in Q2 2024, underweight by 0.37% [1] - Funds increased positions in C-end building materials, fiberglass, and new materials, while reducing positions in B-end building materials, cement, and glass leaders [1] - Northbound capital reduced positions in building materials but remained slightly overweight by 0.12%, with a preference for leading companies in various sub-sectors [1] Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q2 2024, fund allocation to building materials dropped to 0.66%, underweight by 0.37% [11] - Funds increased positions in consumer building materials, fiberglass, and new materials, while reducing positions in glass and cement [13] - Top fund holdings in building materials include Conch Cement, Feilihua, and Skshu Paint [16] Northbound Capital Holdings Analysis - Northbound capital's allocation to building materials decreased to 1.21% in Q2 2024, overweight by 0.12% [20] - Northbound capital continued to overweight consumer building materials and fiberglass, while increasing positions in cement and reducing positions in consumer building materials, fiberglass, glass, and new materials [22] - Top Northbound holdings in building materials include Beixin Building Materials, China Jushi, and Conch Cement [27] Comparison of Fund and Northbound Holdings - Funds slightly overweight new materials, while Northbound capital overweights consumer building materials and fiberglass, with both underweighting other sectors [34] - Both funds and Northbound capital reduced positions in glass, but diverged in other sectors: funds increased positions in fiberglass, consumer building materials, and new materials, while Northbound capital increased positions in cement [34] Industry Valuation and Performance - The building materials industry is at a valuation bottom, with leading companies showing strong performance [39] - H-share cement companies performed well in Q2 2024, with Asian Cement (China) up 45% and Conch Cement H-shares up 14% [40] Investment Recommendations - Consumer building materials: Focus on leading companies with strong operational resilience, such as Skshu Paint, Tubaobao, Beixin Building Materials, and Weixing New Materials [47] - Cement: Pay attention to the rebound in infrastructure demand driven by accelerated special bond issuance, with Conch Cement (A/H) and Huaxin Cement (A/H) as top picks [47] - Fiberglass and carbon-based composites: Favor leading companies like Changhai Composites and China Jushi, with a focus on Sinoma Science & Technology and Jinbo Composites [47] - Glass: Monitor leading companies such as Kibing Group, Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass, and Flat Glass (A/H), with attention to Jinjing Technology and Linuo Special Glass [48]

Investment Rating - The report rates the communication industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The advancement of AI technology is driving the rapid development of autonomous driving, with Tesla showcasing its BEV + Transformer architecture for autonomous driving models, which enhances environmental perception and decision-making capabilities [1][6][12] - The domestic market is leveraging its superior infrastructure and planning capabilities to commercialize vehicle-road-cloud autonomous driving, with companies like Baidu leading the way [1][18] - The communication technology advancements are crucial for the acceleration of autonomous driving, particularly through V2X technology, which provides real-time information sharing and collaborative perception [1][19][20] Summary by Sections AI Technology Progress - Autonomous vehicles integrate computer vision, sensors, and navigation systems to operate without driver intervention, relying on perception, cognition, decision-making, and action [6][12] - The evolution of models from CNN to BEV + Transformer has significantly improved the environmental perception capabilities of autonomous vehicles [12][13][14] Domestic Vehicle-Road-Cloud Initiatives - Baidu's Apollo platform has been instrumental in developing autonomous driving solutions, with over 900 million vehicles equipped with its technology [18][24] - The ACE traffic engine enhances the synergy between autonomous driving and smart traffic systems, potentially reducing accident rates by 99% [18][19] Communication Sector Opportunities - The demand for computing power in autonomous driving is driving the growth of optical module requirements, with Tesla aiming for a total computing power of 100 exaFLOPS by the end of 2024 [28][29] - The transition from CAN bus to Ethernet in vehicles is evident, with Ethernet offering higher bandwidth and lower latency, which is essential for the development of smart cabins and autonomous driving [1][20]

买入： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价表现强于大盘 15%以上。 卖出： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价表现弱于大盘 5%以上。 广发证券（香港）经纪有限公司具备香港证监会批复的就证券提供意见（4 号牌照）的牌照，接受香港证监会监管，负责本报告于中国香 港地区的分销。 [Table_PageText] 华宝新能|公告点评 本报告仅面向经广发证券授权使用的客户/特定合作机构发送，不对外公开发布，只有接收人才可以使用，且对于接收人而言具有保密义 务。广发证券并不因相关人员通过其他途径收到或阅读本报告而视其为广发证券的客户。在特定国家或地区传播或者发布本报告可能违反 当地法律，广发证券并未采取任何行动以允许于该等国家或地区传播或者分销本报告。 [Table_Interest 权益披露Disclosure] 未经广发证券事先书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、刊登、转载和引用，否则由此造成的一切不良后果及法律责任 由私自翻版、复制、刊登、转载和引用者承担。 证券研究报告 ⚫ 多点布局全面向好、下半年有望迎来加速期。24 年公司多点布局，产 品端：①完善磷酸铁锂产品矩阵后日本市场需求快速修复，美国市场需 求受 ...

[Table_Title] 煤炭行业月报(2024 年 6 月) 动力煤旺季供需均有回升,板块估值和股息优势显著 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 煤炭板块回顾:6 月煤炭小幅回调,24 年以来行业涨幅排名 5/30。根 据 Wind,6 月煤炭(中信)板块下跌 4.1%,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.8pct。 年初以来累计涨幅 7.2%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.0 个百分点。目前板块 PE(TTM)11.2 倍,而 PB(最新报告期)1.47 倍,估值整体处于历 史中高位置,但相对其他板块仍低估。 ⚫ 煤炭市场回顾:6 月供给稳中回升,由于高基数、水电等影响,电煤及 部分非电需求延续弱势。(1)国内煤价:6 月以来,动力煤和焦煤价格 整体偏弱运行,长协煤价延续稳健;(2)国际煤价:6 月以来,澳洲动 力煤和炼焦煤价均有回落;(3)国内需求:6 月社会用电量延续稳健增 长(同比+5.8%),由于高基数、水电和新能源出力较多等影响,6 月 火电延续承压,非电行业中化工表现较好,钢铁、建材偏弱;(4)国内 供给:6 月国内原煤产量同比增长 3.6%,进口量环比增长 1.8%;(5) 海外供需:新 ...