[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报(2024 年第 27 期) | | | |------------------------|------------| | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2024-07-07 | 电煤旺季来临需求改善,焦煤价格企稳回升 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 近期市场动态:动力煤价探涨,焦煤价格回升,焦炭价格保持平稳。根 据汾渭能源,动力煤方面,CCI5500 大卡煤价 7 月 5 日最新报价 847 元/吨,周环比下跌 7 元/吨。年度长协 7 月港口 5500 大卡煤价为 700 元/吨,环比持平。本周港口和产地煤价延续小幅下跌,临近周末煤价 企稳,港口部分低卡煤报价有小幅上涨。近期随着各地相继出梅,江 南、华南等地出现高温天气,电厂日耗回升,市场交易情绪改善。预计 随着气温继续升高,以及贸易商和电厂库存消耗,煤价有望逐步企稳回 升。下半年煤价支撑主要来自:(1)国内供给 5 月以来虽有恢复,同 比仍延续下降;(2)季节性需求 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 [TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 本周猪价重拾升势,继续看好水产料需求恢复 [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点: 畜禽养殖:据搜猪网,7月5日,全国瘦肉型生猪出栏均价18.51元/公斤, 环比上周上涨4.22%,同比上涨22.50%。前期产能去化效应显现,叠加 近期南方雨季影响出栏节奏,本周猪价重拾升势,据南方农村报,南方 部分地区猪价再次突破19元/公斤。随着后续供给下降以及需求季节性 回暖,3季度猪价有望继续上行。受益前期原材料价格下行以及防疫效 率提升,出栏成本进入快速下降通道,生猪企业有望充分受益猪价上行 与成本下行之间"剪刀差"扩大,整体盈利水平有望超出市场预期。当 前行业资产负债率整体处于高位,预计后续产能恢复速度或较为缓慢。 根据Mysteel数据,6月能繁母猪存栏量环比增长0.37%,环比增幅继续 收窄。当前板块估值再次回落至相对低位,大型养殖企业重点推荐温氏 股份、牧原股份,关注新希望,中小养殖企业建议关注唐人神、天康生 物、华统股份以及川渝生猪龙头企业。白羽鸡方面,行业持续低位磨低, 本周商品代鸡苗和毛鸡价格分别 ...

Xml [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 传媒行业:AI 行业周报 WAIC 2024 在上海召开,关注前沿大模型进展和多元应用落地 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 国内 AI 动态跟踪:AI 陪伴产品稳健增长,豆包 6 月广告投放金额破 亿元。根据 SimilarWeb,上周(2024/06/24-2024/06/30)国内主要 AI 大模型产品网页端访问量:kimi 543.74 万次,环比下降 2.29%;文心 一言 385.53 万次,环比下降 3.87%;通义千问 205.21 万次,环比上 升 2.34%;豆包 157.09 万次,环比上升 1.76%;智谱清言 80.23 万 次,环比下降 6.71%;讯飞星火 72.72 万次,环比上升 2.86%;天工 AI 70.80 万次,环比上升 10.63%;腾讯元宝 14.42 万次,环比上升 8.78%;App 下载量看,根据七麦数据,kimi 10.61 万次,环比上升 1.17%;文心一言 17.30 万次,环比下降 8.42%;通义千问 7.23 万 次,环比下降 2.58% ...

证券研究报告 银行资负跟踪 20240706 存单发行规模回落,央行准备借券卖出 核心观点: ⚫ 本期:2024/7/1~7/7,上期:2024/6/24~6/30,下期:2024/7/8~7/14, 本文数据来源:Wind。 ⚫ 央行动态:本期央行公开市场共开展 100 亿元 7 天逆回购操作,利率 1.80%,逆回购到期 7,500 亿元,整体实现净回笼-7,400 亿元。下期央 行公开市场将有 100 亿元逆回购到期。本期跨季结束,银行间流动性 回归中性偏宽松,央行公开市场逆回购余额回落至低位,预计下期流 动性保持宽松,逆回购余额延续低位。 ⚫ 政府债融资:本期政府债净缴款 1,367.85 亿元,预计下期政府债净缴 款约 1,412.45 亿元,与本期基本相当。本期央行公告开展国债借入操 作,信号意义较强,政策层对长债利率风险的关注隐含着其对财政扩 张和名义增长回升的信心,预计下半年财政节奏有望加速。 ⚫ 资金利率:本期 DR007 较上期变动-35.8bp。跨季结束后资金面重回 相对充裕,资金利率下行,R007 与 DR007 差值仍在低位,手工补息 对流动性影响持续。下期预计资金面保持宽松,资金利 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry as "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry supply and demand continue to improve, with pig prices expected to rise in the third quarter. The breeding sow inventory has been declining for 16 consecutive months, with a cumulative decrease of 11.3% from January 2023 to April 2024, indicating a significant reduction in excess capacity [5][7] - The overall supply of pigs is projected to continue declining, reaching a low point in the current cycle, which is expected to drive pig prices upward [5][19] - The cost of raising pigs has decreased significantly due to falling feed prices and the gradual alleviation of seasonal disease impacts, leading to improved profit margins for breeding enterprises [5][39] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Supply and Demand Improvement - The breeding sow inventory is at its lowest level since 2021, with a total pig inventory of 408.5 million heads as of the end of Q1 2024, down 5.2% year-on-year [5][13] - The second quarter saw limited participation in secondary fattening, which has contributed to the upward pressure on pig prices [14][19] - Seasonal demand for pork is expected to rise in the third quarter, further supporting price increases [19][23] 2. Decrease in Industry Costs - Feed price changes typically take about two quarters to fully impact raising costs due to the biological growth cycle of pigs [24][39] - Since December 2023, feed raw material prices have dropped significantly, with corn and soybean meal prices down approximately 3.4% and 16.9% respectively compared to early 2024 [39][43] - The overall cost of raising pigs has entered a rapid decline phase, with the average cost significantly reduced [39][47] 3. Profit Margins Expected to Exceed Expectations - The widening gap between pig prices and costs is expected to lead to profits that exceed market expectations [5][39] - Sensitivity analysis indicates that as feed prices decrease, the average profit per pig can increase significantly, with potential profits rising from 180 CNY per head to 660 CNY per head as prices fluctuate [5][39] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the sector, such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, while also considering smaller firms like Tangrenshen and Tiankang Biological [5][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Montage Technology (688008 SH) with a target price of **81 10 RMB per share**, representing a potential upside from the current price of **57 31 RMB per share** [2] Core Views - Montage Technology reported strong H1 2024 results with revenue of **1 665 billion RMB**, a **79 49% YoY increase**, and net profit attributable to shareholders of **583~623 million RMB**, a **612 73%~661 59% YoY increase** [1] - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of **928 million RMB**, up **82 59% YoY**, with net profit attributable to shareholders of **360~400 million RMB**, a **4 79~5 44x YoY increase** [1] - The interconnect chip segment reached a record high in Q2 2024, with revenue of **833 million RMB**, up **19 92% QoQ**, and gross margin expected to be **63%~64%**, further improving QoQ [1] - Three AI-related high-performance chips showed rapid growth in Q2 2024: - PCIe Retimer chip shipments doubled to **300k units** in Q2 from **150k units** in Q1 [1] - MRCD MDB chip revenue exceeded **50 million RMB** in Q2, up from **20 million RMB** in Q1 [1] - CKD chip began mass production in April 2024, with Q2 revenue exceeding **10 million RMB** [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow **100 1% YoY** in 2024 to **4 574 billion RMB**, followed by **40 9% growth** in both 2025 and 2026 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase **242 2% YoY** in 2024 to **1 543 billion RMB**, with further growth of **65 1%** in 2025 and **56 7%** in 2026 [4] - EPS is forecasted to be **1 35 RMB** in 2024, **2 23 RMB** in 2025, and **3 50 RMB** in 2026 [4] - The company's ROE is expected to improve significantly from **4 4%** in 2023 to **13 3%** in 2024, **18 1%** in 2025, and **22 1%** in 2026 [4] Product Breakdown - In H1 2024, interconnect chips contributed **1 528 billion RMB** in revenue, while the Jintide server platform generated **130 million RMB** [1] - The growth in interconnect chips was driven by increased DDR5 penetration and strong demand for AI-related high-performance chips [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 14.20 CNY per share [30] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.15, 0.20, and 0.25 CNY per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [29] - The company's fair value is estimated at 14.20 CNY per share using a risk-adjusted DCF valuation method [29] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 580 million CNY in 2024 to 740 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 11.1% [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 580 million CNY in 2024 to 740 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 11.1% [1] - EBITDA is projected to increase from 115 million CNY in 2024 to 182 million CNY in 2026 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 59 million CNY in 2024 to 102 million CNY in 2026 [1] - EPS is expected to grow from 0.15 CNY in 2024 to 0.25 CNY in 2026 [1] Product Pipeline and Market Potential - The tetanus vaccine market is expected to exceed 1.7 billion CNY by 2030, with the company holding a leading market share [3][47] - The company's AC-Hib combination vaccine is expected to reach a sales peak of 1 billion CNY [3] - The recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is in Phase III clinical trials and is expected to complete Phase III by 2025, with a potential market size of 1 billion CNY in China [3][64] - The company has 11 products in its R&D pipeline, including global innovative vaccines such as the recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine and the Helicobacter pylori vaccine [3] Competitive Landscape - The company holds a dominant position in the tetanus vaccine market, with a favorable competitive landscape [3][51] - The recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is globally leading in clinical progress, with no similar products approved worldwide [3][42] R&D and Innovation - The company has a differentiated R&D pipeline, with a focus on adult vaccines, hospital-acquired infection vaccines, and innovative vaccines [42] - The company has optimized the antigen selection, adjuvant use, and immunization schedule for the recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine, significantly improving the probability of success [69][70] Market Performance - The company's stock has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 37.47% over the past 6 months [30]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------|-----------------|-----------------------|-----------------|-------------|--------------| | | | 极米 | 坚果 | Vidda | 当贝 | EPSON | | | 产品型号 | RS 10 | N1S Pro 4k 至臻版 | C2 至臻版 | X5S | TW5750 | | | 价格（元） | 4999 | 5999 | 5699 | 4999 | 4299 | | | 光源 | 护眼三色激光 | 三色激光 | 三色激光 | ALPD 激光 | 灯泡 | | | 显示技术 | DLP | DLP | DLP | DLP | 3LCD | | | 显示芯片 | 0.47'' 4K DMD | 0.47'' 4K DMD | 0.47'' 4K DMD | 0.47''DMD | 0.61" 3LCD | | | 长焦 / 短焦 | 中长焦 | 长焦 | 长焦 | 长焦 | 长焦 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for both Hong Kong and US stocks of the company, with a target price of 106.55 HKD per share and 27.23 USD per ADS respectively [4]. Core Insights - The company has significant potential for profit growth in the mid to long term, particularly in the market for passenger vehicles priced above 200,000 RMB, which accounts for approximately 84% of the industry's steady-state profit center [11][13]. - The company has demonstrated resilience through three historical turning points, showcasing its ability to quickly correct mistakes and iterate on its product offerings [12][18]. - Short-term focus should be on the company's performance in the high-end vehicle market, potential breakthroughs in overseas exports, and the rollout of new electric models [12][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Long-term Market Potential - The target market for the company is lucrative, with the profit from passenger vehicles priced above 200,000 RMB representing about 84% of the industry's steady-state profit center [11][13]. - In 2023, Chinese brands captured approximately 16% of the profits in the passenger vehicle market above 200,000 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4 percentage points [11][15]. 2. Historical Turning Points - The company has successfully navigated three critical turning points: 1. After a strategic misstep with the Mini SEV, the company pivoted to focus on the six-seat SUV market, demonstrating strong market selection and product definition capabilities [12][18]. 2. In response to increased competition from Huawei's partner car manufacturers, the company accelerated product and organizational iterations to support the successful launch of the L series [12][18]. 3. Following underwhelming sales of the Ideal MEGA, the company quickly reassessed and redirected resources to stabilize the sales and market share of the L series [12][18]. 3. Short-term Focus Areas - The Ideal L6 is expected to stabilize and increase the company's market share in the high-end vehicle segment, leveraging brand momentum [12][36]. - The company is exploring overseas markets, particularly in the Middle East, which presents significant growth opportunities [12][36]. - The rollout of new electric models, enhanced by advancements in smart driving and ultra-fast charging, is anticipated to validate the brand's strength [12][36]. 4. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 3.89, 5.14, and 7.02 RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25 times for 2024 [4][3].

证券研究报告 批零社服行业 2024 年中期策略 赛道分化,关注变革 核心观点: ⚫ 美妆:展望 2024 下半年,我们推荐三个主线:(1)品牌势能向上、业 绩确定性较高的美妆品牌,推荐珀莱雅、巨子生物、丸美股份;(2)质 价比方向,推荐润本股份、上美股份、福瑞达;(3)估值底部,等待拐 点品牌,建议关注贝泰妮、上海家化、华熙生物。 ⚫ 珠宝:我们认为 2024 下半年主要关注点将聚焦:(1)品类竞争持续加 剧,古法金打破黄金同质化竞争,开启黄金饰品年轻化进程;(2)龙头 持续发力渠道拓展与店效提升,建议持续关注门店数量净增与同店销 售数据等指标;(3)品牌力建设与定位重塑或将成为龙头公司提升市 占率的主要考验。建议重点关注周大生、老凤祥、潮宏基、周大福。 ⚫ 跨境电商:能及时调整定价政策、最大化利用亚马逊政策的公司有望改 善盈利能力,积极布局新渠道、抓住渠道红利沉淀品牌势能的跨境电商 有望实现高增长,建议关注品牌力较强的安克创新,积极布局新渠道的 华凯易佰、赛维时代,以及受益于外贸高景气的小商品城、焦点科技。 ⚫ 线下零售:商超百货业态近年降本增效,通过精细化运营提振毛利率。 同时直播系电商格局基本形成,货 ...