[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|航海装备Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 中国海防（600764.SH） 水声电子防务装备龙头，稳增向好成长可期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 公司是集电子防务与信息装备研发、制造、系统集成、销售及服务于 一体的国内水声电子防务装备核心供应商。背靠中船重工集团，两次 资产重组获得水下电子信息业务的相关资产和研制能力。公司在水声 电子防务领域领先地位稳固，拥有水声电子防务装备全领域、全产业链 科研生产能力，产品广泛应用于各类舰艇等海洋防务装备。同时公司加 速布局智慧城市、卫星导航等战略性新兴产业，打造第二增长曲线。 核心投资逻辑：（1）水声电子防务装备龙头，受益于海军装备现代化 和信息化建设加速，同时新领域水下防务将长期处于战略发展期；（2） 复盘美国，水下攻防对抗体系建设有望长期支撑水声电子装备发展。 同时水声装备具有"耗材"属性，使用环境恶劣，使用频率较高，维修 较频繁且潜在更换需求较大；（3）非水声业务应用领域广阔，有望受 益下游产业空间扩展。公司非水声产品涵盖特装电子、智能制造。电子 信息等领域，应用场景覆盖广泛，受益新能源汽车、相控阵雷 ...

Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|传媒 [Table_Title] 互联网传媒行业 《黑神话：悟空》即将上线，关注游戏新品供给 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 本周（8月5日-8月9日）中信传媒板块下跌0.88%，跑赢上证综指0.60 个百分点。本周（8月5日-8月9日）A股传媒板块行情有所回调，但从 细分板块来看，游戏、影视、教育板块部分个股有一定反弹，主要由 于受8月3日国务院印发的《关于促进服务消费高质量发展的意见》的 持续影响，网络游戏、影视、教培等改善型消费内容被列入政策扶持 范围；另一方面，重点产品《黑神话：悟空》即将发售，游戏市场供 给端发力，对市场信心有一定提振。 ⚫ 互联网：二季度预览来看，整体宏观承压，广告和消费相关业态受去 年高基数影响有压力，腾讯控股、哔哩哔哩和快手广告受流量和效率 驱动业绩较有韧性。 ⚫ 游戏：本周游戏板块有所反弹。展望来看，根据IT之家，行业重点产 品《黑神话：悟空》8月8日发布上线前的最后一支预告片，该游戏即 将于8月20日上线，有望提振国内市场对3A游戏信心，建议关注产品 销量情况。 ⚫ AI：OpenAI管理层变动，关注海外头部模 ...

[Table_Title] 非银金融行业 央行再关注长端利率风险，建议关注板块估值修复 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 证券：证监会再发声，聚焦提升市场稳定性。据 wind，本周沪深两市 成交额日均 0.68 万亿元（环比下跌 2.97%），沪深两融余额 14247.17 亿元（环比下跌 0.94%）。8 月 9 日，证监会就近日发布的《中共中 央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》再度发声， 对进一步深化资本市场改革进行部署，作出"健全投资和融资相协调的 资本市场功能""促进资本市场健康稳定发展""建立增强资本市场内在 稳定性长效机制"等安排。《决定》强调"健全投资与融资协调的资本市 场功能"，体现了对平衡投融资的关注，以更好地服务实体经济和促进 资源向新质生产力聚集。下一步，监管部门将通过提升上市公司质量、 引入长期资金、优化监管机制、培育价值投资理念和完善政策工具等 五方面措施，增强资本市场内在稳定性，确保其在复杂环境中持续健 康发展，资本市场将更有力地支持经济转型升级，实现高质量发展。 当前证券公司业绩及监管压力期逐渐缓释，稳增长举措提振市场信 心，证券行业估值和基金持仓双 ...

- The report focuses on the quantitative analysis of A-shares, including market sentiment indicators such as the proportion of stocks hitting 60-day highs and lows, which decreased from 6.0% to 5.6% for highs and increased from 6.7% to 10.0% for lows[5][6] - The moving average structure indicator shows an improvement, with the proportion of stocks in a bullish arrangement minus bearish arrangement rising from -53.8% to -43.6%[6] - ETF fund flows indicate a net inflow of approximately 307 billion yuan during the period, reflecting increased investor interest in equity ETFs[47][49] - Northbound capital flows show a net outflow of 148 billion yuan over the last five trading days, suggesting reduced foreign investor participation in the A-share market[62][64] - Financing balance data reveals a decrease of approximately 97 billion yuan over the past five trading days, indicating reduced leverage in the market[88][90]

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|国防军工 2024 年 8 月 11 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 国防军工行业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|----------------------------|------------------------|----------|----------------------------| | 分析师： [Tabl | 孟祥杰 | 吴坤其 | 分析师： | 邱净博 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260521040002 | 执证号：S0260522120001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120005 | | | SFC CE.no: BRF275 | SFC CE.no: BRT139 | | | | | 010-59136693 | 010-59133689 | | 010-59136685 | | | mengxiangjie@gf.com.cn | wukunqi@gf.com.cn | | qiujingbo@gf.com.cn | ...

[TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 本周猪价再创新高，母猪产能恢复偏缓 [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点： 畜禽养殖：据搜猪网，8月9日，全国瘦肉型生猪出栏均价20.87元/公斤， 环比上周上涨5.14%，同比上涨21.83%。前期产能去化效应显现，本周 猪价再创新高，估算自繁自养利润接近600元/头。据饲料工业协会数据， 上半年猪饲料产量同比下滑7.3%，其中仔猪料同比下降13.5%。仔猪料 或侧面反映新生仔猪数量下滑较明显，按6个月生猪生长期推算，下半 年供给收缩或继续延续。近期原材料价格震荡下行，利好养殖成本下降， 生猪企业有望充分受益猪价上行与成本下行之间"剪刀差"扩大，整体 盈利水平有望超出市场预期。当前行业资产负债率整体处于高位，预计 后续产能恢复速度或较为缓慢，据Mysteel数据，7月能繁母猪存栏量环 比增长约1.1%。当前板块估值再次回落至相对低位，大型养殖企业重 点推荐温氏股份、牧原股份，关注新希望，中小养殖企业建议关注唐人 神、天康生物、华统股份以及川渝生猪龙头企业。白羽鸡方面，伴随消 费旺季逐步到来，据Wind，本周商品代鸡苗和毛鸡价格继续反弹，分别 环比上涨0.6%、0 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate and property management industry as "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate market is experiencing a slowdown in transaction volumes, with a notable decline in new housing sales. However, there is an acceleration in land acquisition for affordable housing, supported by recent policy changes [3][11] - The central bank's Q2 monetary policy report emphasizes the importance of the housing rental market and aims to enhance financial support for affordable housing construction [11][12] - The report indicates a mixed performance in the property sector, with state-owned enterprises showing a 4.9% increase, while private enterprises with defaults have seen a slight rise [4][3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Policy and Fundamentals Tracking - Recent central policies focus on enhancing financial support for affordable housing and promoting a dual rental and purchase housing system. The central bank has allocated 12.1 billion yuan for affordable housing loans, with expectations for increased lending [11][12] - Local policies are accelerating land acquisition for affordable housing, with cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen implementing measures to support the acquisition of existing properties for this purpose [13][14] 2. Key Company Tracking - The report includes a list of key companies in the real estate sector, all rated as "Buy," with their respective stock prices and estimated reasonable values provided [6] 3. Real Estate Development Sector Investment View - The report notes that while new housing sales are declining, the second-hand housing market shows signs of recovery, with year-to-date transaction volumes turning positive [3][20] 4. Property Management Sector Investment View - The property management sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with slight increases in defaulting private enterprises. The overall sector's dynamic PE ratio stands at 6.9x, indicating a marginal increase [4][3] 5. Key Cities Transaction Situation - In the week ending August 8, 2024, the monitored 51 cities recorded a total transaction area of 3.319 million square meters, reflecting a 22.2% decrease from the previous week and an 11.8% year-on-year decline [20][21] - The report highlights that first-tier cities saw a 16.3% decrease in transaction volume, while second-tier cities experienced an 18.4% decline [20][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Buy" indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [6]. Core Insights - Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. reported a Q2 2024 revenue of 432.8 billion JPY (approximately 20.3 billion RMB), a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, with a net profit of 36.1 billion JPY (approximately 1.7 billion RMB), reflecting a 1.4% increase year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights that the main revenue and profit source for Nippon Paint is the立时 Group, contributing 67% of revenue growth and 68% of profit growth in Q2 2024, with立邦 China accounting for 31% of revenue growth and 13% of profit growth [2]. - The construction paint segment in China showed single-digit growth in Q2 2024, with TUC experiencing resilient growth while TUB continued to be affected by the real estate sector [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Nippon Paint's Q2 2024 revenue breakdown includes Japan at 50.8 billion JPY,立时 Group at 242.0 billion JPY, 多乐士 Group at 105.4 billion JPY, and the Americas at 34.6 billion JPY, with respective year-on-year growth rates of +1.0%, +24.2%, +18.4%, and +21.4% [2]. - The overall gross margin for Q2 2024 was 40.2%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to revenue growth and structural optimization despite a 5% rise in oil prices since March 2024 [2]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the B-end market in China will see a slowdown in decline, with an overall revenue guidance for 2024 maintained at +5-10% [2]. - The construction paint segment's revenue growth is projected to be adjusted, with TUB's revenue growth forecast lowered to -5% and TUC's to +10-15% [2]. Company Ratings - Several companies within the construction materials sector, such as 东方雨虹, 科顺股份, and 三棵树, are rated as "Buy" with expected strong performance relative to the market [4].

[Table_Title] 轨交设备跟踪报告（七） 1-7 月铁路投资同比再超 10%，暑运客流创新高 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 1-7 铁路累计投资增速 10.5%，增量以装备采购+大修技改为主。根据 中国铁路公众号，1-7 月铁路固定资产投资完成额达到 4102 亿元，同 比增长 10.5%；7 月单月完成铁路投资 729 亿元，同比增长 9.8%。投 资持续保持在较快水平。根据国铁集团官网，国铁集团今年年初召开的 工作会议计划今年投产新线的里程目标为 1000 公里以上，我们认为今 年的投资增量将集中体现在装备采购+大修+技改部分。 ⚫ 暑运客流创历史最高水平，进一步驱动下半年招标增长。根据中国经 营报，1-7 月全国铁路客运量 25.19 亿人次，同比增长 15.55%；今年 暑运前半程客流已创下历史新高，7 月 1 日-8 月 6 日全国铁路客运量 5.13 亿人次，同比增长 5.4%，完成国铁预计全暑运期间客流量目标的 60%。投资向上+客运超预期有望进一步加大下半年装备采购招标力 度。 ⚫ 下半年动车+机车二次招标有望启动，存在超预期的可能性。根据中国 经营报，7 月全国铁 ...

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 盐津铺子（002847.SZ） 中报符合预期，成长态势延续 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 事件：公司发布 2024 年中报。24H1 实现收入 24.6 亿元，同比+29.8%； 归母净利润为 3.2 亿元，同比+30.0%。24Q2 实现收入 12.4 亿元，同 比+23.4%；归母净利润为 1.6 亿元，同比+19.1%。 ⚫ 收入端：全渠道+多品类共振，延续高成长趋势。分渠道看，直营/经 销/电商实现收入 1.1/17.7/5.8 亿元，同比-43.6%/+35.1%/+48.4%， 占比分别为 4.4%/72.0%/23.6%。分产品看，辣卤品类占 24H1 收入 36.5%，其中魔芋/肉禽/豆制品/辣卤其他收入分别为 3.1/2.1/1.7/2.1 亿元，同比+38.9%/+6.8%/+11.1%/+46.4%，其中魔芋和辣卤礼包增 长较快，整体辣卤品类同比+25.8%。此外，休闲烘焙/深海零食/蛋类 零食/薯片/果干坚果/布丁等 24H1 实现收入 3.4/3.2/2.4/2.2/2.1/1.8 亿 元，同比+12.6 ...