Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [5] Core Views - The chemical industry is at a cyclical inflection point, with frequent price increases in certain products due to supply constraints and demand uncertainties [2] - The transition from supply constraints to supply optimization is expected to drive long-term growth, particularly in sectors like titanium, phosphorus, and refrigerants [3] - Demand release inflection points are imminent, with sectors like pesticides and vitamins showing potential for price recovery [3] Supply Constraints to Supply Optimization - Upstream energy capital expenditure has declined, keeping global oil prices high [3] - Resource-intensive industries like titanium and phosphorus are facing supply-demand mismatches due to long expansion cycles [3] - Policy-driven supply controls in sectors like explosives and refrigerants are improving supply-demand dynamics [3] - Oligopolies in sectors like chrome chemicals and polyester filament are gaining pricing power [3] - New policies on equipment upgrades and energy efficiency are expected to drive further supply optimization [3] Demand Release Inflection Points - Most chemical product price spreads are at historical lows, with potential for improvement if demand marginally recovers [3] - Pesticides: Global demand remains strong due to stable agricultural commodity prices, with export demand recovering as overseas inventories deplete [3] - Vitamins: Prices are bottoming out due to low inventories and high costs, with potential for significant price increases as the pig cycle bottoms out [3] Key Investment Opportunities - **Supply Optimization**: Focus on resource sectors like oil & gas (e.g., PetroChina, CNOOC), minerals (e.g., titanium, phosphorus), and manufacturing sectors like explosives and refrigerants [3] - **New Technologies & Trends**: Synthetic biology, vacuum materials, lubricant additives, and domestic fashion trends like sun-protective clothing [3] - **Demand Recovery**: Pesticides (e.g., Rainbow Chemical, Guoguang Agrochemical) and vitamins (e.g., Zhejiang NHU) [3] Market Performance - The chemical sector underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a relative market performance of -29% as of May 2024 [6] Industry Data Highlights - **Oil Prices**: WTI crude at $80.49/barrel, Brent at $85.33/barrel, and Dubai at $84.59/barrel as of June 19, 2024 [19] - **Mineral Prices**: Fluorite at 3,773 CNY/ton (99th percentile since 2010), phosphate rock at 1,005 CNY/ton (89th percentile since 2008), and titanium concentrate at 2,073 CNY/ton (72nd percentile since 2010) [19] - **Chemical Price Index**: The CCPI index rose by 5% in June 2024, recovering from a low of -1% in April 2024 [20] - **PPI Growth**: The PPI for chemical raw materials and products manufacturing increased, indicating a recovery in industrial prices [20]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the basic metals sector is awaiting demand improvement, with potential for price elasticity to rise. Copper prices are expected to continue their upward trend supported by improving actual demand and tight supply conditions. The aluminum sector is also projected to benefit from strong cost support and improving global demand [2][42]. - In the steel sector, supply-demand improvements and cost reductions are anticipated to restore price and profit levels in the second half of 2024. The report suggests focusing on quality steel leaders [2][5]. - Precious metals are expected to benefit from anticipated interest rate cuts, with gold prices showing high elasticity for upward movement. The report highlights the importance of the strength of the US dollar in this context [2][5]. - Energy metals are entering a bottom price range, which may present rebound opportunities for the sector. The report notes that domestic demand remains resilient, while external tariff policies may suppress overseas demand [2][5]. Summary by Sections Basic Metals - Copper: Demand is improving, and supply remains tight, with expectations for prices to continue rising as actual demand strengthens and global inventory replenishment occurs [42]. - Aluminum: Global demand is improving, and strong cost support is expected to enhance price elasticity [2][5]. Steel - Supply: A slight decrease in crude steel production is expected in the second half of 2024 [5]. - Demand: Steel demand is projected to stabilize with slight increases in total volume [5]. - Costs: Steel costs are anticipated to fluctuate downwards [5]. - Price and Profit: Improvements in supply-demand dynamics and cost reductions are expected to restore price and profit levels [5]. Precious Metals - The report anticipates that the sector may experience a "Davis Double" effect due to expected interest rate cuts, with gold prices showing significant upward potential [2][5]. Energy Metals - Prices are entering a bottom range, which may lead to rebound opportunities. The report highlights that domestic demand is resilient, while external factors may impact overseas demand [2][5]. Other Minor Metals - Rare earths are expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, while tungsten and molybdenum are poised for upward momentum [2][5].

Group 1: Investment Strategy - Focus on "New Quality Productivity" sectors such as AI, smart grids, and low-altitude economy, with significant growth potential expected in these areas[3] - AI applications are projected to rapidly transition to end-user devices by the end of 2023, driven by advancements in large models like Google Gemini and OpenAI's Sora[3] - The domestic computing power industry, particularly Huawei's cloud services, is crucial for meeting the high-performance computing demands of AI applications[3] Group 2: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a significant correction after a period of optimism, with adjustments reflecting a return to more realistic expectations[16] - Economic indicators show a mixed outlook, with the first negative growth in social financing since 2005 and a notable decline in M1 and M2 money supply, indicating potential economic pressures[16] - The global manufacturing PMI has remained above the neutral line for four consecutive months, suggesting a positive trend in exports[18] Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - The report highlights that high and stable ROE (Return on Equity) is critical for asset returns, with current ROE levels in China and Japan averaging between 6%-8%, corresponding to a PB (Price to Book) ratio of 1-1.5[108] - The relationship between ROE and valuation is emphasized, with a potential ROE of 20% corresponding to a PE (Price to Earnings) ratio of 28.7 and a PB of 5.7[185] - The report suggests that a decline in ROE could significantly erode valuations, indicating the importance of maintaining high ROE levels for investor confidence[185]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 50.48 CNY per share, based on a 60x PE valuation for 2024 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has received FDA approval for its liposomal bupivacaine, marking the first generic drug approved in the U.S. since the original product was launched in 2011. This product is expected to enhance patient quality of life through its long-lasting pain relief capabilities. The global sales for liposomal bupivacaine reached 538 million USD in 2023, indicating significant market potential and a favorable competitive landscape [1][2]. - The company's internationalization strategy is accelerating, with overseas sales and revenue sharing expected to enhance profits. The company has obtained approximately 20 approvals for key products in the U.S., Europe, and Japan since 2011. In 2023, it completed five licensing transactions for innovative drugs, totaling over 4 billion USD, and in May 2024, it secured a licensing agreement for a GLP-1 innovative drug combination worth over 6 billion USD [1][2]. - As a leading domestic new drug developer, the company is well-positioned for long-term growth driven by innovation. It has 16 first-class new drugs and 4 second-class new drugs on the market, with new drug revenue reaching 10.637 billion CNY in 2023. The company has a robust pipeline with over 90 self-developed new drugs in clinical development, including several in the application and Phase III stages, which are expected to drive rapid earnings growth [1][2]. - Earnings forecasts indicate that the company's EPS will be 0.84 CNY, 0.96 CNY, and 1.09 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The company is anticipated to experience a fruitful period of innovation and accelerated internationalization, reinforcing its leading position in the domestic pharmaceutical industry [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 22.82 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 7.3%. The EBITDA is expected to be 4.921 billion CNY, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 4.302 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 10.1% [2][8]. - The EPS for 2024 is estimated at 0.84 CNY, with a PE ratio of 45.96. The ROE is projected to be 11.9% in 2024, indicating a solid return on equity [2][8].

证券研究报告 房地产行业 2024 年中期策略 政策坚定信心,基本面逐步修复 核心观点: ⚫ 政策复盘及展望:防守到进攻,去库存、稳房价。24 年 4 月政治局会 议表态出现积极转变,"517 新政"突破了原有的政策限制,目前除一 线和海南重点区域外,均解除限购,首套房最低首付比例降至 15%, 按揭利率下限取消,24 年二季度政策强度超预期,发力点在于核心城 市房价企稳,对于本轮周期的恢复具有重要作用。 ⚫ 需求端:预计 24 年销售面积同比-15%,逐步改善。23 年 7 月以来, 新房市场单月年化销售面积为 9-10 亿平米,并没有进一步恶化,销售 面积降幅最大的阶段已经过去,目前新房需求相对稳定,517 新政后, 6 月高频 53 城新房成交面积同比降幅收窄,14 城二手房成交单月同 比转正,基本面逐步改善。我们预计 24 年全年商品房销售面积 9.5 亿 平米,同比-15%,销售金额 9.5 万亿元,同比-18%,销售均价同比- 4%,25 年价格同比回升,新房总量稳定。 ⚫ 供给端:投资压力依然较大。(1)新开工:在销售面积同比-15%的情 况下,在房价确认上涨之前,年内开工表现弱于销售,预计 2 ...

2024 年 7 月 3 日 证券研究报告 家用电器行业 2024 年中报业绩前瞻:Q2 维持 Q1 趋势,业绩稳健增长 [Tabl | 曾婵 | 分析师: | 袁雨辰 | |-----------------------------|-------------|-----------------------------| | SAC 执证号: S0260517050002 | | SAC 执证号: S0260517110001 | | SFC CE.no: BNV293 | | SFC CE.no: BNV055 | | 0755-82771936 021-38003640 | | | | zengchan@gf.com.cn | | yuanyuchen@gf.com.cn | e_Author] 分析师: 核心观点: 行业整体:内销保持稳健增长,外销维持较高景气度。(1)内销:统计局数据,2024 年 1-5 月家电及音像器材 零售额为 3421 亿元,同比+7.0%,4-5 月累计零售额同比+8.9%,环比 23Q1 增速改善 3.1pct。(2)出口:24Q2 外需旺盛,家电出口保持快速增长。据海关 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the electronic industry, indicating a strong growth outlook driven by advancements in AI and GPU cluster technologies [13]. Core Insights - The growth trend of GPU clusters is significant, with expectations for exponential growth in cluster size due to the need for efficient training of large models. NVIDIA plans to interconnect over 10,000 GPUs in 2024, over 100,000 in 2025, and over 1 million in 2026 [2]. - The expansion of GPU clusters will increase the number of network layers, enhancing the ratio of switches to GPUs. The report highlights the use of Fat-Tree architecture in data center networks to meet high bandwidth and low latency requirements [2]. - The report anticipates a shift towards RoCE protocol in large clusters as InfiniBand's interconnect limit is reached, with RoCE offering better compatibility and distributed networking [2]. - The Ethernet switch market is expected to see significant growth, with projections indicating an increase from over $20 billion in 2023 to nearly $30 billion by 2026, driven by rising interconnect speeds and demand for high-performance computing [2]. Summary by Sections GPU Cluster Growth - GPU cluster sizes are expected to grow exponentially to meet the demands of large model training, with NVIDIA's roadmap indicating substantial increases in interconnected GPUs over the next few years [2]. - The report details the maximum number of GPUs that can be interconnected based on different network architectures, highlighting the scalability of GPU clusters [6]. Network Architecture - The report discusses the advantages of using CLOS network architecture for GPU interconnects, emphasizing the need for high bandwidth and low latency in data centers [2][7]. - It compares InfiniBand and RoCE protocols, noting the lower latency of InfiniBand but the potential for RoCE to become more prevalent as cluster sizes increase [7]. Market Opportunities - The report identifies key players in the Ethernet switch market, such as Huadian Technology and Marvell, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated market growth [2]. - It highlights the expected increase in demand for high-capacity Ethernet switches, driven by the need for efficient data transfer in AI applications [2].

证券研究报告 半导体设备国产替代趋势月度跟踪 4 月测试机招标量居多,去胶和炉管设备国产化中标比例领先 核心观点: ⚫ 4 月合计 38 项招标,以积塔、中芯国际、长鑫、华虹招标为主,招标 设备主要包括测试机、去胶、炉管、探针台设备等品类。根据采招网的 数据,2024 年 4 月,统计样本中的晶圆产线合计产生 38 项招标。以 积塔半导体、中芯国际、长鑫、华虹半导体等产线招标为主。招标设备 主要包括测试机、去胶、炉管、探针台等品类。2024 年 1-4 月,统计 样本中的晶圆产线合计招标 204 项,其中,华虹半导体、积塔半导体、 燕东科技的招标量位居前三。整体而言,设备招标以量测、刻蚀、测试 机设备为主。 ⚫ 4 月合计 122 项中标,以量测、刻蚀、CVD 设备居多,国产设备整体 中标比例约 9%,炉管、去胶、刻蚀、PVD 设备的国产中标比例显著。 中标方面,根据采招网的数据,2024 年 4 月,统计样本中的晶圆产线 上合计中标 122 台设备,以量测、刻蚀、CVD 设备居多;国产设备整 体中标比例约 9%,其中,炉管、去胶、刻蚀、PVD 设备的国产中标比 例显著。2024 年 1-4 月,统计样本中的 ...

证券研究报告 建材行业 2024 年中期策略 砥砺前行,布局龙头 核心观点: ⚫ 消费建材:地产继续寻底,重视龙头阿尔法。地产政策密集发布,下半 年全国新房销售降幅有望收窄;新房竣工需求有压力,二手房需求好于 新房,存量房属性强的品种表现更好;新开工面积预计已回落至中期较 低水平。C 端龙头公司需求环境更好、积极进行渠道深化和品类扩张, 经营更稳健。预计 2024 年消费建材盈利水平同比稳定,坏账风险出清 步入收尾期。核心龙头公司经营韧性强。看好三棵树、兔宝宝、北新建 材、伟星新材、中国联塑、东鹏控股、东方雨虹,关注坚朗五金、箭牌 家居、蒙娜丽莎、科顺股份、志特新材、王力安防。 ⚫ 水泥:行业盈利见底,下半年业绩有望同比转正。预计 2024 年水泥需 求下滑 4%-6%、增速逐季改善;行业产能过剩, 2025 年有望开启"去 产能",错峰生产依旧是行业暂时控产量的必要手段。2024 年 1 季度 水泥行业盈利见底,2 季度水泥企业积极通过减产涨价,显示企业改善 盈利的决心,下半年水泥价格和盈利有望实现同比转正,关注专项债加 速发行带来的基建需求回升;核心公司底部盈利好于过往周期也好于 同行;目前行业 PB 估 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Giant Tech (002444 SZ) with a target price of 30 64 yuan per share, based on a 16x PE multiple for 2024 [1][3] Core Views - Giant Tech's H1 2024 net profit is expected to reach 1 09-1 18 billion yuan, a 25%-35% YoY increase, with Q2 2024 net profit growing 26 4% YoY [1] - The US inventory destocking phase has ended, leading to a recovery in tool market demand, as evidenced by Home Depot's Q1 2024 inventory decreasing by 12% YoY [1] - The company has expanded its product portfolio from hand tools to power tools and laser instruments, with revenue share increasing from 18% in 2021 to 26% in 2023 [1] - Giant Tech's self-branded products now account for nearly 50% of revenue, up from less than 10% in 2016, significantly improving profitability [1] - The company has established 3 Southeast Asian, 5 European, and 3 US production bases, with Southeast Asian facilities contributing to improved profitability in H1 2024 [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 12 61 billion yuan in 2022 to 22 51 billion yuan in 2026, with a 34 7% YoY increase expected in 2024 [2] - Net profit is forecasted to increase from 1 42 billion yuan in 2022 to 3 34 billion yuan in 2026, with a 36 1% YoY growth in 2024 [2] - EPS is expected to rise from 1 24 yuan in 2022 to 2 78 yuan in 2026 [2] - ROE is projected to improve from 10 6% in 2022 to 14 3% in 2026 [2] Operational Highlights - The company's gross margin improved from 26 5% in 2022 to 31 8% in 2023, with a stable margin of around 31% projected for 2024-2026 [8] - Inventory turnover ratio is expected to increase from 4 48 in 2022 to 6 37 in 2024, indicating improved operational efficiency [8] - The current ratio is projected to improve from 2 75 in 2022 to 3 34 in 2026, reflecting stronger liquidity [8] Industry Context - The US core CPI increased by 3 4% YoY in May 2024, showing marginal easing of inflationary pressures [1] - US retailer inventory grew by 4 8% YoY in April 2024, indicating a recovery in demand [1]