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金属及金属新材料行业:节能降碳推动新一轮去产能,看好钢铁、有色行业投资机会
GF SECURITIES· 2024-06-04 08:01
[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|有色金属 证券研究报告 [金Table_属Title] 及金属新材料行业 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 节能降碳推动新一轮去产能,看好钢铁、有色行业投资机会 报告日期 2024-05-30 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现  有色金属:节能降碳推动向“以质图强”转变,关注高自给率的绿色 14% 铝企业。据中国政府网,2024年05月29日国务院印发《2024—2025 6% 年节能降碳行动方案》。(1)铜:缓解铜冶炼产能过剩压力,铜精矿、 -1% 05/23 08/23 10/23 01/24 03/24 05/24 -9% 阴极铜均紧缺,支撑铜价高位。从严控制铜等冶炼新增产能,有利于 -16% 防止铜冶炼行业进一步供给过剩、企业利润下滑。但从长期看,印度 -24% 等新兴市场需求增长潜力较大,铜矿供给紧张,因此,国内铜冶炼企 有色金属 沪深300 业控制新增产能的影响有限,整体铜精矿、阴极铜均紧缺,支撑铜价 高位。关注:江西铜业、云南铜业、铜陵有色、洛阳钼业(A+H)、紫 [分Ta析 ...
房地产行业24年4月行业月报:基本面年内持续低迷,政策超预期转向
GF SECURITIES· 2024-06-04 08:01
[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|房地产 证券研究报告 [房Table_地Title] 产行业 24 年 4 月行业月报 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 基本面年内持续低迷,政策超预期转向 报告日期 2024-05-30 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 政策环境综述:“517新政”超预期转向,去库存、提需求。24年5月 20% 17 日,央行同时宣布下调首/二套首付比至 15%/25%、取消首二套房 9% -2% 贷利率下限、下调公积金贷款利率,央行“517新政”是本轮周期政策 05/23 08/23 10/23 01/24 03/24 05/24 -12% 层面的一次重大转变,表明了中央对解决地产问题的决心。截至24年 -23% 5月29日,已有至少24省跟进“517新政”,多数一二线城市已跟进, -34% 房地产 沪深300 首套利率下调幅度在 10bp-50bp 之间,二套下调幅度更大,最高降幅 达80bp。5月17日央行同时提出设立规模3000亿元的保障性住房再 贷款支持收购存量商品房,预计可拉动总资金500 ...
机械设备行业投资策略周报:工业企业当月利润由降转增,经济继续恢复
GF SECURITIES· 2024-06-04 07:31
[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|机械设备 证券研究报告 [机Table_械Title] 设备行业 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 工业企业当月利润由降转增,经济继续恢复 报告日期 2024-06-03 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 根据国家统计局,工业企业当月利润由降转增,4月份,全国规模以上 10% 工业企业利润由 3 月份同比下降 3.5%转为增长 4.0%,增速回升 7.5 2% 个百分点,企业当月利润明显改善,1-4月份,规上工业企业利润同比 -6%06/23 08/23 10/23 01/24 03/24 05/24 -14% 增长4.3%,增速与1-3月份持平,继续保持平稳增长;5月份,制造 -22% 业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为 -30% 49.5%、51.1%和51.0%,比上月下降0.9、0.1和0.7个百分点,我国 机械设备 沪深300 经济总体产出继续扩张,企业生产经营活动保持恢复发展态势。 ⚫ 市场表现分析:上周(5月27日-5月31日)机械行业指数( ...
银行行业2024年5月社融前瞻:预计社融增速8.4%
GF SECURITIES· 2024-06-04 07:01
[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [银Table_行Title] 行业 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 预计社融增速 8.4% 报告日期 2024-06-03 ——2024 年 5 月社融前瞻 [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: 14% 7% ⚫ 我们预计2024年5月社融增速 8.4%,增速环比回升0.1pct。预计5 0% 06/23 08/23 10/23 01/24 03/24 05/24 月社融当月增量约1.94万亿元,同比多增0.38万亿元。 -6% -13% ⚫ 信贷方面:银行GDP核算改革、存款手工补息治理、地产恢复偏慢等 -20% 多重因素叠加,预计信贷增速继续承压。预计 5 月信贷 0.9 万亿元, 银行 沪深300 同比少增0.46万亿元;其中社融口径信贷0.7万亿元,同比少增0.52 万亿元。 [分Ta析ble师_A:uth or] 倪军 ⚫ 债券方面:预计政府债同比多增,信用债同比少减。预计 5 月政府债 SAC 执证号:S0260518020004 净融资1.3万亿元,同比多增 ...
新泉股份:独立第三方内外饰龙头的成长之路
GF SECURITIES· 2024-06-04 06:31
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 57.60 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 43.10 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leading independent third-party manufacturer of automotive interior and exterior trim parts, with over 20 years of experience in the industry. Its product range includes dashboards, door panels, and bumpers, serving clients such as Geely, BYD, and international electric vehicle brands. The dashboard assembly is the company's flagship product, showing a consistent increase in market share within China [2][10]. - The company's growth has been driven by strategic foresight and advantages in technology, capacity, and management. The three growth phases from 2012 to 2023 have seen compound annual growth rates (CAGR) in net profit of 24.7%, 118.1%, and 68.4%, respectively, fueled by product expansion, customer growth, and a combination of domestic and international client increases [2][19]. - The automotive interior and exterior trim market is projected to exceed 1 trillion CNY, with opportunities arising from domestic substitution trends as consumer preferences shift towards upgraded materials and integrated designs. The company is expected to benefit from the rise of domestic brands and the ongoing globalization of its client base [2][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established a solid organizational structure and governance, with a stable shareholding and a well-defined incentive mechanism. The controlling shareholders hold 37.2% of the shares, ensuring stability [15][16]. Business Breakdown - The company has diversified its product offerings, with dashboard assemblies being the core product. In 2023, dashboard and door panel revenues accounted for 82.5% of total revenue, highlighting the importance of these products to the company's financial performance [12][13]. Industry Outlook - The market for automotive interior and exterior trim parts is expected to reach 1,667 billion CNY in China by 2025, driven by consumption upgrades and the rise of domestic brands. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [2][10]. Growth Logic - The company's growth is supported by a dual engine of customer and product expansion, with a focus on high-quality clients and a steady increase in production capacity. The international expansion aligns with the globalization of its customer base, providing further growth opportunities [2][19].
立华股份:受益黄鸡景气上行,养殖成本显著下降
GF SECURITIES· 2024-06-04 05:31
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [3]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the yellow-feathered chicken breeding industry, with a stable increase in market share and a long-term cost advantage. In 2023, the company achieved a yellow chicken output of approximately 460 million birds, a year-on-year increase of 12%, with a market share of about 13%, ranking second nationally and first in East China [12][19]. - The company is actively expanding its pig farming business, with a significant improvement in breeding costs. In 2023, the company reported a pig output of approximately 860,000 heads, a year-on-year increase of 52% [19]. - The company is expected to benefit from the rising prices of livestock and poultry, with projected net profits of 1.26 billion, 1.71 billion, and 2.30 billion yuan for 2024 to 2026, respectively [19]. Summary by Sections Yellow Feathered Chicken Business - The company has established a complete industrial chain covering breeding, feed production, and slaughtering. The yellow chicken output has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 11% from 2014 to 2023, with a projected output of approximately 510 million birds in 2024 [12][19]. - The company maintains a leading position in breeding costs within the industry, which is expected to continue decreasing due to the decline in feed raw material costs [12][19]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 was 15.354 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The revenue from yellow chicken breeding accounted for approximately 88% of total revenue [34][58]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was a loss of approximately 437 million yuan, primarily due to losses in the pig farming business and inventory impairment losses [34][58]. Industry Analysis - The yellow chicken industry is experiencing a recovery, with the current production capacity at a historical low. The supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, leading to a sustained upturn in industry prosperity [19][80]. - The competitive landscape of the yellow chicken industry is becoming more concentrated, with the top four companies accounting for about 49% of the market share [80]. Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts a reasonable value of 30.32 yuan per share for the company, based on a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 times for 2024 [19].
明阳电气:搭载电力设备出海东风,海风贡献新增长极
GF SECURITIES· 2024-06-03 12:31
[Table_Contacts] 搭载电力设备出海东风,海风贡献新增长极 新能源电气装备企业,盈利能力卓越。公司得益于明阳集团的平台资源, 较早切入新能源输配电及控制设备领域,现已发展成为以智能变压器、 箱变,智能成套开关设备三大业务为主体,集研发、生产、销售、服务 于一体的智能化输配电装备企业。2024Q1 公司实现营收 10.34 亿元, 同比+46.35%,归母净利润 0.9 亿元,同比+104.30%;2022-2024Q1 公司营收及净利均保持同比 45%以上增速。 展,预计 24-26 年公司归母净利润分别为 6.49/8.74/10.94 亿元,对应 EPS 分别为 2.08/2.80/3.51 元/股,参考可比公司给予公司 2024 年 20 倍 PE,对应合理价值 41.58 元/股,给予"买入"评级。 风险提示:公司原材料中海外元器件占比较高的风险,产业政策调整风 险,原材料价格波动风险。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|-------|------- ...
固德威:欧洲光储领先厂商,海外去库拐点已至
GF SECURITIES· 2024-06-03 10:31
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 106.30 CNY per share, based on a 22x PE valuation for 2024 [2][4] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the PV inverter and energy storage market, with a strong focus on overseas markets, particularly Europe [2] - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 7.353 billion CNY, a 56.10% YoY increase, and net profit of 852 million CNY, up 31.24% YoY [2] - Europe is the largest market, contributing 3.344 billion CNY in revenue from inverters and energy storage batteries, with a gross margin of 45.42% [2] - The company has a diversified product portfolio, including grid-tied inverters, energy storage inverters, residential systems, and energy storage batteries [2] Business Performance and Market Position - The company's inverter inventory is nearing the end of destocking, with exports to Europe in April 2024 reaching 295 million USD, down 49.94% YoY but up 23.07% MoM [2] - The company has launched new products, including the UT series 320kW grid-tied inverter and the GT series 100-125kW inverter, targeting ground power stations and commercial/industrial applications [2] - As of May 2024, the company's products have been installed in over 71.2GW globally, covering more than 100 countries and regions [2] - In 2023, Europe's new residential energy storage installations reached 9.5GWh, a 60% YoY increase, accounting for 59.01% of the global market [2] Product Development and Innovation - The company has introduced new energy storage products, including the EAC series 60kWh and BAC series 100-372kWh outdoor integrated cabinets for commercial and industrial applications [2] - In 2023, global energy storage battery shipments reached 185GWh, a 53% YoY increase, with Europe's shipments growing 156% YoY to 23GWh [2] - The company has a strong R&D team, with 1,023 R&D personnel and 426 authorized intellectual property rights as of December 2023 [49] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 9.53 billion CNY in 2024 to 15.477 billion CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 29.6% [3] - Net profit is projected to increase from 835 million CNY in 2024 to 1.238 billion CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.4% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 4.83 CNY in 2024 to 7.16 CNY in 2026 [3] Market Trends and Opportunities - The global energy storage market is expected to grow significantly, with Europe, the Middle East, and Africa showing the fastest growth rates [28] - The commercial and industrial energy storage sector is entering a high-growth phase, with global installations expected to increase by 128% in 2024 [28] - The European market, driven by policies like the EPBD, is expected to see continued growth in rooftop solar installations, which will further boost demand for residential energy storage [38][39]
非银金融行业投资策略周报:长端利率预期回暖,建议关注保险板块
GF SECURITIES· 2024-06-03 09:01
[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|非银金融 证券研究报告 [非Table_银Title] 金融行业 [Table_行Grade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 长端利率预期回暖,建议关注保险板块 报告日期 2024-06-02 [Table_Summary] [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 核心观点: 14% ⚫ 证券:行业自律规范持续细化,行政执法注重关注上市公司质量与投 7% 资者保护。本周沪深两市成交额日均0.75万亿元(环比下降14.77%), 0% 06/23 08/23 10/23 01/24 03/24 05/24 沪深两融余额15368.29亿元(环比下降0.54%)。5月15日,中证 -6% -13% 协首次发布两项团体标准,由成员单位华福证券、华安证券分别编写 -20% 了《证券公司投诉处理标准》、《证券公司客户回访标准》,中证协 非银金融 沪深300 推出新团体标准,注重投资者保护,行业自律规范逐渐精细化。自2024 年以来,中国证监会共作出 41 份行政处罚,月份上 3 月数量最多, [相Ta关ble研_Do究cR:ep ort] 类型上内幕交易与信披违规最多。同 ...
建筑材料行业:地产政策密集发布,继续看好建材板块机会
GF SECURITIES· 2024-06-03 08:01
[Table_Page] 深度分析|建筑材料 证券研究报告 [建Table_筑Title] 材料行业 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 持有 前次评级 持有 地产政策密集发布,继续看好建材板块机会 报告日期 2024-06-03 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现  4月基建投资增速环比下降,地产增速继续低位徘徊;地产政策密集发 10% 布,继续看好建材板块机会。据国家统计局公布数据,2024 年 1-4 月 2% -6%06/23 08/23 10/23 01/24 03/24 05/24 房地产开发投资/新开工面积/销售面积/施工面积/竣工面积同比分别为- -14% 9.8%/-24.6%/-20.2%/-10.8%/-20.4%;4 月单月同比分别为-10.5%/- -22% 14.0%/-22.8%/+19.4%/-19.1%。新开工增速继续好转,施工和竣工同比 -30% 增速也略有改善,显示前期稳定地产融资等政策具备一定效果;但销售 建筑材料 沪深300 面积的单月同比跌幅再度扩大、新开工和竣工增速仍在较低区间,整体 来看地产需求尚未出现 ...