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哔哩哔哩-W:Q1点评:广告增长提速,亏损大幅收缩
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-28 07:02
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for both US and Hong Kong stocks of Bilibili (BILI), with a current price of 13.74 USD / 106.3 HKD and a fair value of 24.75 USD / 193.28 HKD [1][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 56.65 billion RMB for Q1 2024, exceeding consensus expectations and showing a year-over-year growth of 12% [7][9]. - The gross margin improved to 28.3%, up 6.6 percentage points year-over-year, indicating effective cost management and revenue growth strategies [7][13]. - The net loss attributable to shareholders was 7.5 billion RMB, which was better than the expected loss of 8.15 billion RMB, reflecting a significant reduction in losses [7][9]. User Growth and Engagement - In Q1 2024, Daily Active Users (DAU) reached 102.4 million, a year-over-year increase of 9%, while Monthly Active Users (MAU) were 34.2 million, also up 8% [3][4]. - The average daily time spent per user was 105 minutes, marking a new high and a 9% increase year-over-year [3][4]. Revenue Breakdown - Advertising revenue for Q1 2024 was 16.69 billion RMB, up 31% year-over-year, driven by improved product efficiency and healthy overall traffic growth [9][11]. - Live streaming and Value-Added Services (VAS) revenue reached 25.29 billion RMB, a 17% increase year-over-year [9][11]. - Game revenue was 9.83 billion RMB, down 13% year-over-year, primarily due to a lack of new product launches [11][12]. Profitability and Cost Management - The report highlights a strategy focused on increasing gross profit while reducing losses, with operational expenses showing a slight decrease year-over-year [7][15]. - The management expenses were reported at 5.3 billion RMB, down 7% year-over-year, while sales expenses were 9.27 billion RMB [13][15]. Future Projections - The company expects advertising revenue to grow by 30% and 23% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, reaching 83 billion RMB and 102 billion RMB [18][19]. - Total revenue is projected to grow by 14% and 15% in 2024 and 2025, reaching 256 billion RMB and 296 billion RMB [18][19]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profitability, with a forecasted non-GAAP net loss of 12.24 billion RMB in 2024 and a potential profit of 11.29 billion RMB in 2025 [18][19].
携程集团-S:利润超预期,海外业务持续高双位数增长

GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-28 07:02
[Table_Page] 公告点评|消费者服务Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [【Table_广Title] 发商社&海外】携程网(TCOM)/ 公[Ta司ble评_Inv级est ] 买入-美股/买入-H 当前价格 57.05美元/440.00港元 携程集团-S(09961.HK) 合理价值 63.53美元/495.29港元 前次评级 买入/买入 利润超预期,海外业务持续高双位数增长 报告日期 2024-05-21 [ 核Tabl 心e_Su 观mm 点ary] : [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 携程集团发布 1Q24 业绩公告。公司 1Q24 实现收入 119.2 亿元,同 60% 携程网 纳斯达克 40% 比增长 29%;毛利率同比下降 1.0pps 至 81.2%,non-GAAP 归母净 20% 利润为40.6亿元,non-GAAP归母净利润率34%。 0% -20% ⚫ 根据公司1Q24财报,(1)1Q24住宿业务收入同比增长29%至45.0 -40% 亿元,收入占比38%。(2)1Q24交通业务收入同比增长20%至 -60% 2023-05 2023-08 2023-11 2024-02 ...
网易-S:端游运营调整带来短期影响,自研游戏储备丰富

GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-28 07:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2024 revenue of 26.852 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 7.21%. The gross profit for Q1 was 17 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 63.37% [2][8]. - Mobile gaming showed steady growth, while PC gaming experienced a decline. Q1 gaming and related value-added services revenue was 21.46 billion RMB, up 7% year-over-year, with mobile games accounting for 78.6% of online gaming revenue [2][19]. - The company has a strong pipeline of self-developed games, with several titles set to launch in the coming months, which is expected to bolster future performance [2][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was 26.852 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 17 billion RMB and a gross margin of 63.37%. Sales expenses were 4.022 billion RMB, while R&D expenses were 4.175 billion RMB, representing 15.55% of revenue [2][8][19]. - The company reported a GAAP net profit of 7.634 billion RMB and a Non-GAAP net profit of 8.511 billion RMB, with Non-GAAP net profit margin at 31.70% [2][19]. Gaming Business - The gaming segment generated 21.46 billion RMB in revenue, with online gaming revenue at 20.43 billion RMB, reflecting a 9.84% increase year-over-year. Mobile games contributed 16.058 billion RMB, up 19.41%, while PC games saw a 15.15% decline [2][19]. - New game launches such as "射雕" and "世界之外" had limited impact, but existing titles like "逆水寒" and "蛋仔派对" performed well during the Spring Festival [2][19]. Future Outlook - The company expects to gradually recover from the impact of PC gaming adjustments, with Blizzard's return to the Chinese market expected to support this segment [2][19]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at 111.9 billion RMB, 126.7 billion RMB, and 138.9 billion RMB, respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits expected to be 34.5 billion RMB, 38.7 billion RMB, and 42.4 billion RMB [2][19][25].
上海家化:底部确立,换帅积极变化值得重视
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-28 07:01
[Table_Title] 上海家化(600315.SH) 做了组织架构调整,调整从职能化转为事业部架构,主要目的是能简 化组织内部的沟通流程,加速对市场的反应速度,同时建立起赛马机 制,效率有一定优化,也在 Q1 报表上有体现。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|--------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | [Table_Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 7106 | 6598 | 7395 | 8134 | 8797 | | 增长率( % ) | -7.1% | -7.2% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 8.1% | | EBITDA (百万元) | 805 | 534 | 822 | 932 | 998 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 472 | 500 | 617 | 727 | 821 | | 增长率( % ) | -2 ...
民爆行业系列三:掘金藏、疆、蒙区域民爆市场发展机遇
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-28 06:01
[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|基础化工 2024年5月27日 证券研究报告 [基Table_础Title] 化工行业 民爆行业系列三:掘金藏、疆、蒙区域民爆市场发展机遇 分析[T师ab:l 吴鑫然 分析师: 丁续 e_Author] SAC 执证号:S0260519070004 SAC 执证号:S0260523070003 SFC CE.no: BPW070 0755-23942150 02138003762 wuxr@gf.com.cn dingxu@gf.com.cn 请注意,丁续并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人,不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 前言:我们在《民爆行业,23年数据解读及投资逻辑梳理》和《民爆行业系列二:从头部企业财报再看行业变 化》中提到民爆行业作为高危性行业,市场区域化色彩浓厚,龙头企业通过产能调配陆续从富余地区向富矿区 域转移。本文从民爆行业区域性特征出发,重点分析关注西藏、新疆、内蒙古三地民爆市场发展机遇。 ⚫ 西藏:亚洲水塔,水利基建大有可为。《国家水网建设规划纲要》印发、叠加特别国债发行,国家水利基建提 速。西藏水 ...
微博-SW:收入和利润率维持稳定水平,利润表现好于预期
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-28 05:32
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of $8.77 and a target value of $15.22 per ADS, equivalent to HKD 118.87 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2024 was $395 million, slightly above consensus expectations, with stable revenue and profit margins. The advertising revenue from Alibaba grew by 23% year-over-year, while third-party advertising revenue declined by 6% [1][3]. - The report anticipates that the company will benefit from increased advertising budgets during the upcoming summer Olympics, particularly in sectors like apparel, gaming, and food and beverage [1][4]. - The overall advertising business is expected to see a recovery in the second half of the year, with a projected revenue of $1.77 billion for 2024, reflecting a 1% year-over-year growth, and $1.84 billion for 2025, reflecting a 4% growth [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company reported a GAAP net profit of $34 million for Q1 2024, with a non-GAAP net profit of $63 million, indicating a 51% year-over-year decline [1][4]. - The EBITDA for 2024 is projected to be $597 million, with a net profit margin of 27% and an adjusted net profit of $487 million [5][6]. - The report highlights a stable gross margin of 79% for the upcoming years, with operating profit expected to reach $481 million in 2024 [5][6]. Earnings Forecast - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is expected to be $487 million, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% projected for 2024-2026 [10][4]. - The report estimates total revenue for 2024 at $1.77 billion, with advertising revenue expected to remain stable at $1.54 billion [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report uses a PEG ratio of 1.00 for valuation, leading to a target price of $15.22 per ADS based on a projected adjusted net profit of $487 million for 2024 [9][10]. - The report compares the company with peers, indicating a stable market position and potential for growth in advertising revenue despite macroeconomic challenges [9][10].
房地产及物管行业24年第21周周报:“517新政”传导中,基本面体现仍需时间
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-28 05:31
[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|房地产 证券研究报告 房地[Table产_Title]及 物管行业 24 年第 21 周周报 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 “517 新政”传导中,基本面体现仍需时间 报告日期 2024-05-26 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 本周政策情况:央行“517新政”传导中,至少12省份已跟随调整。 20% 中央层面,住建部要求各地及时调整公积金贷款利率,自然资源局明 9% -2% 确土储资金管理及土储计划可动态调整。地方政策方面,本周湖北、 05/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 03/24 05/24 -12% 河北、河南、山西、重庆、广西、甘肃、海南、云南、陕西、宁夏、 -23% 广东(除广州、深圳外19城)等至少12个省份已取消商贷利率下限 -34% 房地产 沪深300 并降低首付比至15%/25%,长沙、合肥、济南、池州、福州等城市也 已降低首付比,珠海取消限购限售,江门取消限售。 本周基本面情况:政策传导中观望情绪等影响,成交暂未有明显效果。 [分Ta析ble师 ...
半导体设备行业国产替代趋势月度跟踪:3月设备招标环比增长显著,国产设备中标比例快速提升
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-28 05:31
[Table_Page] 深度分析|半导体 证券研究报告 [半Table_导Title] 体设备国产替代趋势月度跟踪 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 3 月设备招标环比增长显著,国产设备中标比例快速提升 报告日期 2024-05-23 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 3 月合计 127 项招标,以华虹、积塔、中芯国际招标为主,招标设备 4% 主要包括量测、刻蚀和CVD设备等品类。根据采招网的数据,2024年 -4%05/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 03/24 05/24 3 月,统计样本中的晶圆产线合计产生 127 项招标。以华虹半导体、 -11% 积塔半导体、中芯国际等产线招标为主。招标设备主要包括量测、刻蚀 -19% -26% 和 CVD 设备等品类。2024 年 1-3 月,统计样本中的晶圆产线合计招 -34% 标 166 项,其中,华虹半导体、积塔半导体、燕东科技的招标量位居 半导体 沪深300 前三。整体而言,设备招标以量测、刻蚀、CVD设备为主。 ⚫ 3 月合计 108 项中标,以气液系统、检 ...
国防军工行业:新·视角:航空、燃机出海,内外需双驱动新一轮景气补库机遇
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-28 05:31
[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|国防军工 2024年5月21日 证券研究报告 [国Table_防Title] 军工行业 新·视角:航空、燃机出海,内外需双驱动新一轮景气补库机遇 分析[T师ab:l 孟祥杰 分析师: 吴坤其 分析师: 邱净博 e_Author] SAC 执证号:S0260521040002 SAC 执证号:S0260522120001 SAC 执证号:S0260522120005 SFC CE.no: BRF275 SFC CE.no: BRT139 010-59136693 010-59136691 010-59136685 mengxiangjie@gf.com.cn wukunqi@gf.com.cn qiujingbo@gf.com.cn 请注意,邱净博并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人,不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 前言:海外民航飞机及发动机龙头近期股价表现亮眼,23年以来国内航空航发产业链个股出口业务景气度高。 ⚫ 我们强调五点趋势,建议重视商业航空、燃气轮机的投资机遇: ⚫ 其一:全球民航有望开启新一轮补库周期,体现 ...
医药生物行业跟踪分析:ASCO数据陆续公布,关注优质创新资产
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-28 05:31
[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|医药生物 证券研究报告 [医Table_药Title] 生物行业 [Table_行Grade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 ASCO 数据陆续公布,关注优质创新资产 报告日期 2024-05-26 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 本周申万医药指数下跌0.81%,涨跌幅在全行业排名靠中。截至2024 4% 年5月25日,本年申万医药生物指数下跌12.78%,跑输沪深300指 -3%05/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 03/24 05/24 数约17.75个百分点,在所有31个申万一级子行业中跌幅排名第20。 -10% 行业PE估值(TTM,剔除负值)为25.92x,相对沪深300估值溢价 -16% -23% 率218.3%,仍处于底部区间,板块配置性价比较高。 -30% ⚫ 细分领域里医药商业板块涨跌幅居前。本周医药生物行业(申万)的二 医药生物 沪深300 级子板块指数均有所调整,涨跌幅第一的是医药商业板块,下跌 2.68%,跑输沪深300指数0.60个百分点,跑赢医药生物指数1.05个 百分点。 ...