[Table_Page] 深度分析|环保 证券研究报告 [公Table_用Title] 事业价格机制系列（一） [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 价格机制亟待理顺，重视环保运营资产重估 报告日期 2024-05-23 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 引言：新一轮公用事业涨价周期启动，如安徽发布电价调整政策提升峰 4% 谷价差，今年以来多城开展水价听证流程，燃气价格自2023年起部分 -4%05/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 03/24 05/24 -11% 城市开启居民端顺价等。本文梳理了供水、污水、垃圾处置费等调价机 -19% 制及案例，核心解决以下 3 个问题：（1）公用事业如何定价及调价， -26% （2）历史调价的驱动因素，（3）地方财政及居民视角看调价空间。 -34% 环保 沪深300 ⚫ 新一轮水价调整周期到来，升幅或达 0.15-0.62 元/方。根据广州发改 委，广州 5 月 9 日召开水价听证会，第一阶梯水价有望从 2012 年执 行的 1.98 元/吨上涨至 2.46~2.6 元/吨，调价 ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|软件与服务 2024年5月26日 证券研究报告 [【Table广_Title发] TMT 产业研究】美股科技股观察| 24Q1 业绩跟踪 英伟达：业绩延续强劲增势，新产品进程超预期，预计供不应求持续至 25 年 分析[T师ab：l 杨琳琳 e_Author] SAC 执证号：S0260514050004 SFC CE.no: BNC117 0755-23480370 yll@gf.com.cn [Table_Summary] 核心观点： （备注：文中预测数据或内容，若无特别说明，均来自公司业绩公告和业绩会） ⚫ FY25Q1业绩超预期，指引乐观。根据财报，FY25Q1（截至2024年4月28日的三个月）收入同比+262.1% 至 260.4 亿美元（此前指引 240 亿美元）；净利润同比增长超 6倍达148.8亿美元。毛利率提升至78.4%，经 营费用率下降至13.4%；净利率增至57.1%。据FY25Q1 Earnings Call，公司预计FY25Q2收入将进一步增 长至280亿美元（±2%），环比+7.5%；毛利率环比小幅下降至74.8%（±50bp），预计FY2 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|通信 证券研究报告 [通Table_信Title] 行业 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 工信部披露24年4月运营数据，持续关注流量、算力基建产业链 报告日期 2024-05-27 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 事件：5月21日，工信部发布《1－4月份通信业经济运行情况》（以 24% 下统称“公告”），根据公告显示，电信业务量收平稳增长；5G、千兆 14% 光网等新型基础设施建设持续推进，网络连接用户规模不断扩大，移 5% -5%05/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 03/24 05/24 动互联网接入流量较快增长。 -14% ⚫ 电信业务4月面临宏观挑战，后续有望出现回暖。根据公告披露数据， -24% 1-4 月电信业务收入累计完成 5924 亿元，同比增长 4%。按照上年不 通信 沪深300 变价计算的电信业务总量同比增长 12.5%。根据公告推算，单 4 月份 电信业务收入同比增长2.5%。（1）固定互联网宽带业务收入平稳增长： [分Ta析ble师_A：uth ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|建筑装饰 证券研究报告 [洁Table_净Title] 室行业跟踪报告 [Table_行Grade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 下游景气在手订单持续增长，海外业务布局加速 报告日期 2024-05-27 核心[T 观able 点_Su ：mmary] 相[Ta对ble市_P场icQ表uot现e] ⚫ 洁净室企业订单整体保持高增，在手订单余额持续增加。2023年，受 6% 下游半导体及泛半导体等产业发展带来的洁净室需求增长，洁净室工 0% 05/23 07/23 09/23 11/23 01/24 03/24 程企业订单整体向好。根据年报，柏诚股份2023 年新签订单 49.5 亿 -7% 元，同增 48%（半导体类订单同增 70%），在手订单总金额 28.7 亿 -13% 元，同增 58%。亚翔集成 2023 年新签订单 71.59 亿元，同比增长 -19% 79.89%，在手订单56.07亿元，同比64.21%；圣晖集成2023年新签 -25% 订单 21.42 亿元，同比下滑 6.76%，在手订单13.19 亿元，同比增长 建筑装饰 沪深300 6.47%，截止24 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The central bank's recent operations indicate a net liquidity tightening in the interbank market, with a focus on upcoming government bond payments and their impact on liquidity [2][15] - Government bond net payments are expected to rise significantly, indicating an increase in fiscal efforts, which may improve economic expectations in the long term [2][15] - The overall funding rates remain stable, with slight fluctuations influenced by tax periods, but are expected to rise due to high government bond payments and month-end factors [2][15] Summary by Sections 1. Fiscal Payments and Liquidity - Recent fiscal payments have increased, with government bond net payments at CNY 2,229 billion this period and projected to rise to CNY 5,556 billion next period [2][15] - The central bank conducted CNY 100 billion in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.80%, resulting in a net withdrawal of CNY 20 billion [2][15] 2. Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The central bank's reverse repo balance is at a low of CNY 100 billion, indicating a loose liquidity environment [2][15] - Funding rates for DR001, DR007, DR014, and DR021 have increased by 6.06bp, 1.59bp, 8.90bp, and 0.30bp respectively [2][15] - Shibor rates for 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y have shown slight declines, with 1Y increasing by 0.4bp [2][15] 3. Bank Financing Tracking - The issuance of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) has seen a weighted average issuance rate of 2.05%, up by 3bp from the previous period [2][16] - The total issuance of NCDs exceeded CNY 1 trillion, with a net financing scale of over CNY 400 billion [2][16] - The total outstanding NCDs reached CNY 16.78 trillion, with an average remaining maturity of 156 days [2][17] 4. Government Bond Rates - The yields for government bonds have varied, with 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y rates showing slight increases and a decrease for the 30Y rate [2][16] - The anticipated increase in government bond net financing is expected to alleviate the "asset shortage" and support a rise in long-term bond yields [2][16] 5. Commercial Bank Bonds - There were 8 issuances of commercial bank bonds totaling CNY 610 billion, with a total outstanding bond scale of CNY 2.99 trillion [2][18] - The credit spreads for short-term bonds have narrowed, while long-term spreads have generally widened [2][18]

[Table_Page] 深度分析|汽车 证券研究报告 [汽Table_车Title] 行业：24 年数据点评系列之五 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 乘用车：中国品牌份额提升超预期，政策落地后 报告日期 2024-05-27 的终端需求表现值得期待 [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 [Table_Summary] 20% 核心观点： 12% 4% ⚫ 根据交强险，24年4月国内乘用车交强险销量（不含进口，下同）为 -4%05/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 03/24 05/24 151.8万辆，同比-2.8%，环比-1.6%。从累计销量来看，24年1-4月 -12% 乘用车交强险累计销量为628.6万，累计同比增速为+11.0%。观望情 -20% 汽车 沪深300 绪下的 4 月乘用车终端需求表现基本符合预期，看好以旧换新政策落 地后的终端需求表现。 ⚫ 24年4月底乘用车行业库存处于相对合理水平。根据中汽协、交强险 [分Ta析ble师_A：uth or] 闫俊刚 数据，截至 24 年 4 月底乘用车行业库存为 420.3 万辆，动态库销比 SAC 执证 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|基础化工 证券研究报告 [基Table_础Title] 化工行业 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 MDI 供给扰动持续，涤纶长丝厂商联合挺价 报告日期 2024-05-27 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] ⚫ 行业基础数据跟踪：5 月 20 日~5 月 24 日，SW 基础化工板块下跌 [分Ta析ble师_A：uth or] 吴鑫然 3.79%，跑输万得全A指数1.15pct；化工子行业下跌较多，表现较差 SAC 执证号：S0260519070004 的有油墨涂料、粘胶和氯碱等板块，表现较好的有有机硅、油气开采和 SFC CE No. BPW070 炼化及贸易等板块。 0755-23942150 ⚫ 化工品价格上涨较多: 在我们跟踪的336个产品中,上涨、持平、下跌 wuxr@gf.com.cn 的产品数量分别为 97 种、156 种、83 种,占比分别为 29%、46%和 分析师： 丁续 25%。化工品价格上涨较多。价格涨幅前五：日本LNG现货、工业磷 SAC 执证号：S026052307000 ...

Company Overview - The company, established in 1997, initially focused on international freight forwarding and expanded into hazardous material storage in 1999 [8] - It has evolved into a comprehensive logistics and trading service provider, offering global freight forwarding, global mobility, regional warehousing and distribution, and unique distribution services [52] - The company operates in seven major clusters across China, including Northern, Shandong, Yangtze River, Shanghai, Zhejiang-Fujian, Western, and Guangdong-Guangxi regions [174] Business Model and Revenue Structure - The company's business model integrates logistics and trading, leveraging synergies between the two to create value [115] - In 2023, logistics and trading businesses contributed 56% and 44% of total revenue, respectively, with unique distribution being the largest segment at 44.4% [202] - The company's revenue structure is diversified, with global freight forwarding, regional domestic delivery, regional warehousing and distribution, and global mobility contributing 22.8%, 19.0%, 7.1%, and 6.7% of total revenue, respectively [202] Financial Performance - In 1Q2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 40.62% YoY to 151 million yuan [11] - The company's revenue in 2023 was 9.753 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.7% YoY, but it is expected to grow by 26.6%, 19.0%, and 16.5% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [42] - The company's gross profit margin in 2023 was 11.76%, with regional warehousing and distribution contributing the highest gross profit margin at 47.87% [141] Industry and Market Analysis - The global freight forwarding market is highly correlated with freight rates, and the company's revenue in this segment decreased by 41% in 2023 due to a significant drop in freight rates [198] - The Chinese chemical logistics market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.2% from 2022 to 2027, driven by the expansion of the chemical industry [12] - The third-party chemical logistics market in China is expected to reach a penetration rate of 47.6% by 2027, up from 30% in 2020, indicating significant growth potential [170] Growth Strategy - The company plans to expand its global footprint by entering new markets such as Vietnam and Thailand, and by investing in hazardous material warehouses, tank cleaning yards, and liquid bulk carriers [254] - It aims to enhance its service capabilities by extending its business to value-added services such as chemical repackaging, blending, laboratory analysis, and hazardous waste treatment [263] - The company is also exploring new sectors such as new energy, fast-moving consumer goods, and semiconductors to diversify its revenue streams and reduce cyclical risks [265] Investment Recommendation - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 75.60 yuan per share, based on a 20x PE multiple for 2024 [44] - The company's EPS is expected to be 3.78, 4.68, and 5.52 yuan per share in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, driven by improved domestic demand and rising international trade [270]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 7.62 CNY and a reasonable value of 8.70 CNY [14]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in performance throughout 2024, despite facing challenges in overseas operations [2][44]. - The company's 2023 performance showed a significant recovery post-pandemic, with a revenue of 2.915 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 21.73%, and a net profit of 106 million CNY, up 416.56% [23][30]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 749 million CNY, a 12.47% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 38.25% due to increased overseas losses and new equity incentive costs [7][49]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 2.915 billion CNY, with a net profit of 106 million CNY, marking a 416.56% increase year-on-year [23][30]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of 749 million CNY, a 12.47% increase, but a net profit of 29 million CNY, down 38.25% year-on-year [7][49]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.40 CNY for every 10 shares [23]. Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 3.308 billion CNY in 2024, 3.772 billion CNY in 2025, and 4.251 billion CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 13.5%, 14.0%, and 12.7% respectively [16][30]. - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.58 CNY, 0.80 CNY, and 1.03 CNY respectively [19][30]. Brand Performance - The main brand ELLASSAY is projected to generate revenues of 1.252 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 16.73% [52]. - The Laurel brand is expected to see revenues of 427 million CNY in 2024, growing by 22.67% [52]. - The IRO brand is forecasted to have a slight decline in revenue in 2024, with a projected revenue of 724 million CNY [52]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 68.98%, with slight increases projected for the following years [28][30]. - The company aims to optimize costs and reduce losses in overseas operations by closing unprofitable stores [44][54].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as **Buy** [2] Core Viewpoints - **Glass Substrate Advantages**: Glass substrates offer lower cost, lower dielectric constant, shorter interconnect lengths, higher transmission rates, and higher bandwidth density compared to traditional silicon and organic materials, effectively reducing energy consumption [2] - **Intel's Commitment**: Intel has been investing in glass substrate technology for years, with plans to start mass production by 2030, using 75μm glass vias with a 20:1 aspect ratio [9] - **TGV as Key Process**: Through Glass Via (TGV) technology is crucial for glass substrate applications in advanced packaging, enabling stable and efficient connections while reducing production costs [2] - **Potential for 2.5D/3D Packaging**: Glass substrates could revolutionize 2.5D/3D packaging by replacing silicon and organic interposers, offering better electrical performance and lower costs [2] Glass Substrate and TGV Technology - **Glass Substrate Applications**: Glass substrates are being used to replace silicon and organic interposers in 2.5D/3D packaging, with applications in panels, ICs, and other semiconductor fields [12] - **TGV Challenges**: TGV technology faces challenges in high-precision via formation and high-quality metal filling, with laser-induced etching emerging as a promising method for large-scale production [35][48] - **Metal Filling Techniques**: Different TGV via shapes (blind, vertical, X-shaped, V-shaped) require specific filling techniques such as Bottom-up, Butterfly Model, and Conformal filling [53][54][58] Key Companies in the Glass Substrate Industry - **Intel**: Leading the development of glass substrate technology, with plans for mass production by 2030 and partnerships with glass manufacturers like LPKF and Schott [9] - **Dier Laser**: A leading provider of laser processing solutions for solar cells, now offering TGV laser micro-hole equipment for glass substrate processing [2] - **Delong Laser**: Focused on advanced packaging applications, developing TGV and other laser fine micro-processing equipment since 2021 [2] - **Absolics (SK Group)**: Received $75 million in funding from the US government to develop glass substrate technology for advanced semiconductor packaging [27] - **Samsung and LG**: Both companies are investing in glass substrate R&D, with Samsung aiming for prototype production by 2025 and LG targeting leadership in semiconductor substrates [28][31] Market Trends and Future Outlook - **Advanced Packaging Market Growth**: The global advanced packaging market is expected to grow from $34 billion in 2021 to $62 billion by 2027, with 2.5D/3D packaging growing at an 18% CAGR [24] - **AI and High-Performance Computing Demand**: The increasing demand for AI and high-performance computing is driving the need for glass substrates, which offer better performance and lower power consumption [26][27] - **Emerging Applications**: Glass substrates are being explored for applications in MEMS, RF packaging, 3D integrated passive components, and integrated antennas, with potential for significant performance improvements [25][26]