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海思科:DPP1抑制剂治疗支扩获验证,HSK31858有望于下半年进入III期临床
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-29 09:31
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 39.41 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 30.11 CNY per share [4]. Core Insights - Insmed's DPP1 inhibitor, brensocatib, has shown positive results in treating bronchiectasis, with a significant reduction in the occurrence of pulmonary exacerbations (PEs) by 21.1% and 19.4% in the treatment groups compared to the placebo [2]. - HSK31858, an oral DPP1 small molecule inhibitor developed by the company, is expected to enter Phase III clinical trials in the second half of 2024, with promising applications in non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [2]. - The company has established a partnership with Chiesi for HSK31858, receiving an upfront payment of 13 million USD and potential milestone payments totaling up to 462 million USD [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.39, 0.59, and 0.90 CNY, respectively [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from 3,355 million CNY in 2023 to 6,713 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.2% [3][8]. - The company's EBITDA is projected to increase from 632 million CNY in 2023 to 1,410 million CNY in 2026 [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 295 million CNY in 2023 to 1,003 million CNY in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 53.8% in 2026 [3][8]. - The report indicates a decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 85.74 in 2023 to 33.45 in 2026, suggesting improved valuation as earnings grow [3][8].
叉车深度系列一:星星之火—锂电化空间增量的探讨
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-29 05:31
[Table_Page] 深度分析|通用设备 证券研究报告 [叉Table_车Title] 深度系列一 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 星星之火—锂电化空间增量的探讨 报告日期 2024-05-27 核心[T 观able 点_Sum :mary] [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 中国vs海外真实的叉车锂电化率:中国的锂电化率(本文中锂电化率 10% 1% 均指叉车的锂电化率)水平显著高于海外,中短期预计国内锂电化率 05/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 03/24 05/24 -8% 增速更快,远期锂电叉车出海空间更大。23年中国(含出口)整体锂 -16% 电化率为31.6%;剔除小车(III类车)后,中国叉车锂电化率约20%。 -25% -34% 23年海外整体锂电化率11.7%;剔除小车后,海外叉车锂电化率不及 通用设备 沪深300 6%。 锂电化率的上限:锂电叉车对铅酸替代的渗透率上限高,对内燃替代 [分Ta析ble师_A:uth or] 代川 的渗透率上限不及铅酸,但在成本+环保优势下,可实现大部分替代。 SAC 执证号:S02605170 ...
赛诺医疗:自膨式颅内药物涂层支架系统成功受理,进一步加快上市进程
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-29 05:01
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 12.21 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 11.53 CNY [5][4]. Core Views - The company has successfully received regulatory acceptance for its self-expanding intracranial drug-coated stent system, which is expected to accelerate its market launch [25]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 500 million CNY, 733 million CNY, and 1.086 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 45.8%, 46.5%, and 48.2% [4][26]. - The report highlights the company's strong position in the industry and its growth potential, leading to the valuation of 10X PS for 2024 [4]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to reduce its losses significantly, with a projected net profit of 9 million CNY in 2024, 14 million CNY in 2025, and 23 million CNY in 2026, indicating growth rates of 121.6%, 69.2%, and 56.2% respectively [26]. - EBITDA is forecasted to improve from 26 million CNY in 2023 to 87 million CNY in 2024, followed by 69 million CNY in 2025 and 77 million CNY in 2026 [26]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability, with EPS expected to turn positive in 2024 at 0.02 CNY per share, increasing to 0.04 CNY and 0.06 CNY in the subsequent years [26]. Market Performance - The company has shown a strong relative performance against the market, with a notable increase in stock price since May 2023 [27].
东诚药业:核医药行业领军者,创新资产引领价值重塑
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-29 03:31
Company Overview - Dongcheng Pharmaceutical is a leading domestic nuclear medicine company with three major business segments: nuclear medicine, APIs, and formulations [19] - The company has a stable equity structure, with Chairman You Shouyi directly holding 12.53% of shares and indirectly holding 15.15% through Dongyi Biotech [22] - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 3.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 210 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7% [25] Nuclear Medicine Business - The nuclear medicine business achieved revenue of 1.017 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, with key products 18F-FDG and Yunke Injection growing 12% and 19.52% respectively [31] - The company has formed a complete nuclear medicine industry chain from diagnosis to treatment through strategic acquisitions and internal R&D [19][86] - Dongcheng has 7 single-photon drug production centers and 20 positron drug production centers in operation, with 8 more under construction, covering 93.5% of the domestic population [96] API and Formulation Business - The API business revenue declined 18.61% to 1.678 billion yuan in 2023, mainly due to weak global heparin market demand and customer inventory accumulation [31] - Formulation business revenue decreased 17.2% to 400 million yuan, impacted by price reduction of Nadroparin Calcium Injection in the 8th national drug procurement [31] - The company has a diversified formulation product portfolio covering anticoagulation, cardiovascular, oncology, urology, orthopedics and anti-infective fields [115] R&D and Innovation - Dongcheng established Lannacheng as an innovative nuclear medicine R&D platform in 2021, focusing on tumor, neurodegenerative and cardiovascular diseases [107] - The company has 392 R&D personnel, accounting for 16.8% of total employees, with R&D investment reaching 313 million yuan in 2023, a 77.2% year-on-year increase [38] - Key pipeline products include 99mTc-Tetrofosmin, 18F-APN-1607, 18F-Alfatide II and 99mTc-GSA, with several in late-stage clinical trials [103][104] Industry and Market - The domestic PET/CT installation is expected to reach 1,667 units by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period, driving demand for nuclear medicine diagnostic agents [92] - Novartis leads the global nuclear medicine industry through strategic acquisitions and partnerships, with key products Lutathera and Pluvicto achieving sales of 605 million USD and 980 million USD respectively in 2023 [64][65] - The α-emitter radiopharmaceuticals, such as 225Ac and 212Pb, are emerging as promising therapeutic options due to their higher energy and shorter range compared to β-emitters [48][49] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 2.934 billion yuan in 2024, with nuclear medicine business contributing 1.151 billion yuan and maintaining a gross margin of 74% [125] - API business revenue is projected to be 1.165 billion yuan in 2024, while formulation business is expected to reach 401 million yuan [125] - Dongcheng's EPS is forecasted to be 0.37, 0.45 and 0.55 yuan/share for 2024-2026, with a target price of 16.60 yuan based on 45x 2024 PE [132]
建筑行业周报:专项债/国债下达节奏后置、后续资金面有望宽松,继续推荐绩优建筑央企
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-29 02:31
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2][28]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the issuance of special bonds and government bonds is delayed, but the funding situation is expected to improve, continuing to recommend high-performing central enterprises in the construction sector [2][5]. - The overall funding for infrastructure is tight, with a significant decrease in the issuance of special bonds in 2024, which is expected to accelerate in the future [11][19]. - The report highlights the performance of key companies in the construction sector, noting their dividend yields and profit margins [25]. Summary by Sections 1. Special Bonds and Government Bonds - The issuance of special bonds in 2024 is expected to be lower initially, with a total issuance of 3.9 trillion yuan planned, and only 937.5 billion yuan issued by May 26, 2024, which is a 50.6% decrease year-on-year [11][13]. - Infrastructure spending from the general public budget reached 1.9 trillion yuan in the first four months of 2024, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year, accounting for 20.4% of total expenditures [9][10]. 2. Domestic Loans - In the first quarter of 2024, new medium- and long-term loans for infrastructure decreased by 0.19 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a total of 1.97 trillion yuan added [17][18]. - The total balance of medium- and long-term loans for infrastructure reached 37.57 trillion yuan by the end of 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15% [17]. 3. City Investment Bonds - The total issuance of city investment bonds in 2024 reached 24.215 trillion yuan by May 26, 2024, a decrease of 11.2% year-on-year [19][20]. - The report notes significant growth in bond issuance in regions like Heilongjiang and Liaoning, with increases of 350.0% and 317.9% respectively [22]. 4. Special National Bonds - A total of 1 trillion yuan in special national bonds is set to be issued in 2024 to support major national strategies and security construction, with a multi-frequency issuance schedule planned [23][24]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several key companies based on their performance metrics, including China State Construction, China Railway, and China Railway Construction, highlighting their respective dividend yields and profit margins [25]. - The low-altitude economy sector is also noted for its growth potential, with companies like Huase Group and Design Institute receiving attention for their contributions to infrastructure projects [25].
机械设备行业:经济有望出触底回升,积极关注新质生产力
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-28 13:32
[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|机械设备 证券研究报告 [机Table_械Title] 设备行业 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 经济有望出触底回升,积极关注新质生产力 报告日期 2024-05-28 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 根据国家统计局,4月份全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.7%,增 10% 速较上月加快2.2个百分点。从三大门类看,制造业同比增长7.5%, 2% -6%05/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 03/24 05/24 较上月加快2.4个百分点;采矿业同比增长2.0%,加快1.8个百分点; -14% 电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业同比增长5.8%,加快0.9个百分 -22% 点,工业生产较快增长,制造业增速明显加快。 -30% ⚫ 市场表现分析:上周(5月20日-5月25日)机械行业指数(中信) 机械设备 沪深300 下跌2.79%,沪深300指数下跌2.08%,创业板指下跌2.49%。 ⚫ 机械动态变化:根据OLEDindustry公众号,据DSCC数据预测显示, [分T ...
北方国际:拟投资波黑光伏电站,继续看好“一带一路”能源资源投建营成长逻辑
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-28 08:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.32 CNY per share, while the current price is 11.77 CNY [6][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from strong global steel demand and robust coking coal prices, continuing to expand its power investment and operation business along the Belt and Road Initiative [5]. - The projected net profits for the company are estimated to be 1.15 billion CNY in 2024, 1.44 billion CNY in 2025, and 1.72 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a growth trajectory [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Overview - The company plans to invest 13 million euros to acquire 80% of Aurora Solar d.o.o. and develop a 125MWp solar project in Bosnia, with a total investment of 110 million euros [2]. - The project is expected to have an internal rate of return of 9.68% and a payback period of approximately 8.85 years, with an average annual net cash flow of 123.4 million CNY during the first eight years of operation [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 13.43 billion CNY in 2022 to 37.33 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.3% [21]. - The company's net profit is expected to increase from 636 million CNY in 2022 to 1.72 billion CNY in 2026, indicating a strong growth rate of 19.1% [21]. Operational Strategy - The company aims to establish a foothold in the Central and Eastern European power market through its wholly-owned subsidiary in Hungary, leveraging its integrated investment and operation capabilities [20].
满帮:交易抽佣加大变现力度,获客力度进一步加大
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-28 07:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $14.85 per ADS [4] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2024 revenue of RMB 2.269 billion, a 33.3% YoY increase, exceeding the guidance range of RMB 2.11-2.16 billion [2] - Monthly active shippers reached 2.14 million in Q1 2024, up 22.3% YoY, while fulfilled orders grew 29.6% YoY to 39.3 million [2] - Transaction service revenue surged 61.5% YoY to RMB 691 million, driven by increased order volume, commission coverage, and average commission per order [2] - Gross margin improved to 54.5% in Q1 2024, up 4 percentage points YoY, benefiting from the higher-margin transaction service business [2] - Non-GAAP net profit reached RMB 586 million in Q1 2024, a 42.5% YoY increase [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 23.4% from 2024 to 2026, reaching RMB 15.842 billion in 2026 [3] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to increase from RMB 3.679 billion in 2024 to RMB 5.150 billion in 2026 [3] - The company's PE ratio is projected to decline from 18.3x in 2024 to 9.8x in 2026 [3] Operational Highlights - The company has been increasing its customer acquisition efforts through both online and offline channels, with sales expenses rising 38.5% YoY to RMB 340 million in Q1 2024 [2] - The proportion of mid-to-low frequency direct customers and their order contribution continues to grow [2] - The company has reclassified some revenue from information publishing and value-added services to transaction services [2]
唯品会:1Q24点评:天气影响春装销售,营销投放维持审慎
GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-28 07:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of $20.62 per ADS based on an 8X PE valuation for 2024 [3][8]. Core Insights - In Q1 2024, the company reported a net revenue of 27.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and a non-GAAP net profit of 2.6 billion RMB, up 24.8% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 23.7%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points compared to Q1 2023, attributed to a higher proportion of apparel revenue and reduced subsidy efforts [1][2]. - The company's GMV for Q1 2024 reached 52.4 billion RMB, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year growth, with apparel GMV achieving double-digit growth [1][2]. - Active customer count decreased by 1.4% year-on-year to 43.1 million, while order volume fell by 3.2% to approximately 180 million [1][2]. - The company is focusing on a cautious customer acquisition strategy, emphasizing quality over quantity, which has led to an increase in the average order value (AOV) due to a rise in SVIP membership [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company expects non-GAAP net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 9.94 billion RMB, 10.28 billion RMB, and 10.79 billion RMB, respectively, with growth rates of 4.5%, 3.4%, and 5.0% [2][3]. - The report outlines a projected revenue growth of 1.3% for 2024, followed by 3.4% growth in both 2025 and 2026 [2][3]. - The non-GAAP EPS is forecasted to be 18.3 RMB for 2024, increasing to 19.9 RMB by 2026 [2][3].
BOSS直聘:Q1营收创新高,收购“我的打工网”巩固蓝领招聘竞争力

GF SECURITIES· 2024-05-28 07:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BOSS Zhipin (BZ) with a target price of $26.86 per ADS, based on a 35X PE multiple for 2024 [4][20] Core Views - BOSS Zhipin achieved record-high revenue in Q1 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB 1.704 billion, up 33.4% YoY and 7.8% QoQ [1] - The company's recruitment service revenue (enterprise-facing) grew 33.7% YoY to RMB 1.68 billion, while other services (consumer-facing) increased 12.4% YoY to RMB 19.67 million [1] - Calculated cash billings reached RMB 2.051 billion in Q1 2024, up 24.3% YoY [1] - The company expects Q2 2024 revenue to be between RMB 1.91-1.96 billion, representing 28.4%-31.7% YoY growth [1] Business Performance User Growth - Average MAU reached 46.62 million in Q1 2024, up 17.4% YoY [2] - Over 17 million new users were added by April 2024, indicating continued user growth [2] - Paid enterprise customers reached 5.7 million in the past 12 months, up 42.5% YoY [2] Blue-Collar Market Expansion - Blue-collar revenue accounted for over 35% of total revenue in Q1 2024 [2] - The acquisition of "My Work Network" is expected to strengthen the company's competitiveness in the blue-collar recruitment market [2] - The "Conch Plan" had over 260,000 online positions, covering more than 27 million job seekers [14] Enterprise Demand - Large enterprises (500+ employees) saw a 10%+ MoM increase in daily new job postings in April 2024 [2] - Manufacturing and logistics industries experienced over 40% YoY growth in daily new job postings from post-Spring Festival to mid-May 2024 [14] Financial Performance Profitability - Net income attributable to shareholders reached RMB 245 million in Q1 2024, up 650% YoY [1] - Non-GAAP adjusted net income was RMB 530 million, up 117% YoY [1] - Gross margin improved to 82.7%, up 2.0 percentage points YoY [16] Cost Structure - Sales expenses decreased 7.9% YoY to RMB 579 million, with sales expense ratio dropping 15.2 percentage points YoY to 34.0% [16] - R&D expenses increased 40.4% YoY to RMB 468 million, driven by increased AI investment [16] - Management expenses rose 64.3% YoY to RMB 270 million [16] Future Outlook - Revenue is expected to grow 31.5% YoY to RMB 7.83 billion in 2024 and 25.1% YoY to RMB 9.79 billion in 2025 [20] - Non-GAAP adjusted net income is projected to reach RMB 2.46 billion in 2024 and RMB 2.88 billion in 2025 [20] - Online recruitment services are expected to generate RMB 7.75 billion in 2024, up 31.6% YoY [20] - Other services are forecast to grow 21.9% YoY to RMB 76.7 million in 2024 [20] Competitive Advantages - The company's "direct chat + AI matching" model continues to strengthen its network effects [20] - Blue-collar and lower-tier city markets are becoming key growth drivers [14] - The platform's dual-network effect is expected to attract more C-end users [19]