[Table_Page] 公告点评|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 万 科 A(000002.SZ)/ 万科企业 (02202.HK) 内外部影响半年度首次亏损,管理层增持体现长期信心 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 内外部因素影响半年度首次亏损,短期业绩仍承压。根据公司半年度 业绩预告,万科 24H1 预计归母净亏损 70-90 亿元(23H1 盈利 99 亿 元),扣非归母净亏损 50-65 亿元(23H1 盈利 87 亿元),拿地力度下 降、高价地结算叠加整体市场下行,公司结算规模收缩、毛利率下降、 资产减值、投资及资产处置亏损,上市以来首次出现半年度亏损。 ⚫ 首要任务转向负债管理,公司当前现金流安全。根据业绩预告,24H1 公司实现大宗交易回款 93.4 亿元,印力发行 REITs 规模 32.6 亿元, 积极的资产处置为利润表来带了亏损压力,但较大程度上保障了公司 现金流安全。根据 Wind 及公司融资公告统计,预计 24H2 公开债到期 约 96 亿元,偿付资金已经基本筹措到位,现金流安全性较高。盘活资 产、改善负债结构是公司当前最为重要的任务,未来将聚焦开发、 ...

绩符合预期，期待三维 CAD 的突破跃升 [Table_Title] 中望软件（688083.SH） 24H1 营收稳步增长，3D 产品订单增速较高 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Page] 公告点评|计算机 [联系人： Table_Contacts]戴亚敏 公司发布 24 年上半年经营情况公告。24H1 公司预计营收 3.03-3.13 亿元，同比增加 9.92%-13.55%；24Q2 预计营收 1.83-1.93 亿元，环 比增加 52.44%-60.77%，同比增加 14.32%-20.57%。 24Q2 营收增长提速。24Q2，公司营收同比增速为 14.32%-20.57%， 高于 24Q1 的营收同比增速 3.84%。我们判断，公司在 24Q2 营收增 速的提速，一方面反映了消费电子、工业企业等下游经营情况逐步改善 的情况下，增加了对于正版 CAD 软件采购的预算；另一方面也体现了 公司包括 3D CAD 产品在内的整体设计类软件竞争力不断增强，从而 取得更高市占率和渗透率的趋势。 SAC 执证号：S0260523040001 0755-23948351 2. 在手订单 ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|煤炭开采 [Table_Title] 潞安环能(601699.SH) Q2 原煤产量环比增长 9%,喷吹煤龙头下半年经营有望改善 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: 预告 Q2 扣非业绩中枢 9.5 亿元,环比下降 26%,受煤价和成本费用 影响较大。公司发布中期业绩预告,上半年预计实现归母净利润 20.5- 23.5 亿元,同比下降 55.6%-61.3%;扣非归母净利润 20.8-23.8 亿元, 同比下降 54.8%-60.5%。业绩降幅较大主要受以下因素影响:一是受 煤矿安全监管和生产衔接的影响,上半年煤炭产品产销量同比减少;二 是受煤炭价格周期影响,商品煤价格同比下降;三是受资源税税率调整 及部分矿井安全费用计提、租赁费变动等因素影响,产品成本费用同比 有所增加。其中 Q2 预计实现归母净利润归母净利润 7.6-10.6 亿元,同 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|--------------| | | 证券研究报告 | | [公司评级 Table_Invest] | 买入 | | 当前价格 | 16.01 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 8.09 CNY and a fair value of 9.29 CNY [14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.1 billion CNY, 12.3 billion CNY, and 13.7 billion CNY for the years 2024 to 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 8.1%, 10.8%, and 10.8% respectively [38]. - The company has seen a significant increase in its domestic trade orders, with a reported 37% growth in the textile and garment sector [13]. - The company has successfully entered the Central and Eastern European markets, with a substantial backlog of orders in the shipbuilding sector [24]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 141,148 million CNY, with a decline of 16.3% expected in 2023, followed by a projected recovery with growth rates of 4.9%, 7.8%, and 6.2% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]. - The EBITDA for 2023 is projected at 4,578 million CNY, with an expected increase to 5,312 million CNY in 2024 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,030 million CNY in 2023, increasing to 1,113 million CNY in 2024 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.79 CNY in 2023 to 0.85 CNY in 2024 [2]. Operational Performance - The company reported a 12.04% increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, despite a 13.30% decline in revenue [26]. - The second quarter of 2024 showed a revenue decrease of 3.94% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 17.37% [26]. - The company continues to enhance its operational quality and focus on mainstream customers, leading to improved financial performance [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company benefits from rising molybdenum prices, with significant year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth in performance for Q2 2024. Estimated revenues and net profits for Q2 2024 are approximately 3.73 billion and 870 million yuan, respectively, with net profit growth exceeding 30% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company has a strong track record of high dividend payouts, with cumulative cash dividends of 9 billion yuan since its listing and an average dividend payout ratio of about 75%. The total dividend for 2023 was 1.29 billion yuan, corresponding to a dividend rate of 41.6%, which translates to a dividend yield of 3.6% based on the closing price on July 1, 2024 [2] - Supply constraints in molybdenum are expected to support price stability and growth. Global molybdenum supply is projected to increase by about 2% to 3% from 2024 to 2026, with aging mines posing significant challenges. Estimated global molybdenum production for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 290,000, 300,000, and 310,000 tons, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 2.1%, 2.4%, and 3.2% [2] - The earnings forecast suggests EPS of 1.13, 1.21, and 1.26 yuan per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding PE ratios are projected to be 10, 9, and 9 times, compared to a historical average PE of 14.6 times since early 2022. The company's reasonable value is maintained at 14.65 yuan per share, corresponding to a 13 times PE valuation for 2024 [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at 13 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.7%. Net profit is projected at 3.635 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 17.3% [4] - The company’s EBITDA is expected to reach 5.447 billion yuan in 2024, with a corresponding PE ratio of 9.63 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 20.9% in 2024, indicating strong profitability [4]

[Table_Title] 批零社服行业 6 月社零同增 2.0%,可选消费品有所承压 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 2024 年 6 月社零同比增长 2.0%。据国家统计局数据,2024 年 6 月我 国社零总额 4.07 万亿元/YOY+2.0%,增速较 5 月下滑 1.7pct。其中, 除汽车以外的消费品零售总额 3.64 万亿元/YOY+3.0%。分地区看,乡 村社零增速高于城镇,6 月城镇社零总额 3.51 万亿元/YOY+1.7%,乡 村社零总额 0.56 万亿元/YOY+3.8%。分类型看,6 月商品零售 3.61 万 亿元/YOY+1.5%,餐饮收入 0.46 万亿元/YOY+5.4%,增速较 5 月分 别下滑 2.1pct、增长 0.4pct。 ⚫ 分品类看,可选消费品有所承压。粮油食品/饮料零售额 6 月同比增速 分别为 10.8%(增速环升 1.5pct)、1.7%(增速环降 4.8pct),烟酒零 售额 6 月同比增速 5.2%(增速环降 2.5pct)。可选消费品中,化妆品 和金银珠宝零售额 6 月同比增速分别为-14.6%(增速环降 33.3pct)、 -3.7% ...

[Table_Title] 农林牧渔行业 6 月上市公司出栏量有所调整,销售均重环比下滑 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 猪价与成本"剪刀差"扩大,养殖利润有望超预期。前期产能去化效应 逐步显现,7 月上行以来猪价重拾升势,根据搜猪网,南方部分地区猪 价再次突破 19 元/公斤。受益前期原材料价格下行以及防疫效率提升, 2 季度以来行业出栏成本进入快速下降通道,行业养殖盈利水平有望超 出市场预期。当前全行业均处于养殖利润处于较好盈利区间,根据畜牧 业信息网,7 月 12 日自繁自养群体头均盈利为 392 元/头,外购育肥 群体头均盈利为 327 元/头。产能方面,根据涌益咨询数据,24 年 6 月 能繁母猪存栏量环比增长 0.61%,增幅有所收窄。 ⚫ 上市公司跟踪:根据各公司月度经营数据公告,24 年 6 月各上市公司 整体出栏量有所调整,主要由于仔猪销量减少以及雨季影响出栏节奏。 出栏结构方面,受仔猪市场需求回落影响,6 月整体仔猪销量占比环比 下降。(1)出栏量:6 月各上市公司商品猪出栏量合计 1133 万头,环 比减少 10.3%,同比减少 4.5%;剔除牧原后的各上市公司商品猪出栏 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|环保 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 环保行业 瀚蓝拟私有化粤丰,重视环保"公用事业化"主线 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 建议关注:(1)固废:瀚蓝环境、光大环境、海螺创业、三峰环境; (2)水务:北控水务集团、洪城环境等;(3)再生资源:赛恩斯、朗 坤环境等;(4)设备类:美埃科技、景津装备等。 ⚫ 瀚蓝环境拟私有化粤丰环保,存量时代并购整合加速。本周瀚蓝环境 拟联合广东恒健、南海控股,通过瀚蓝香港私有化粤丰环保约 92.77% 股份,100%股权对应的整体金额为 119.54 亿元港币。根据公司财报, 粤丰环保作为广东省垃圾焚烧龙头公司,截至 23 年底在运产能达 4.37 万吨/日,23 年净利润 10.20 亿元港币(建造业务毛利润占已下降至 7.5%),实际经营所得现金为 19.35 亿元港币。预计瀚蓝与粤丰可在项 目协同、新业务拓展、资金管理、债务重组等多方面强强联合。固废行 业进入到存量时代,产业链延伸、收并购整合、分红等为公司们的主要 经营思路,央国企背景的龙头公司具备资金实力、运营实力、项目质量 等多度优势,建议关注瀚蓝环境、 ...

[Table_Summary] 核心观点： | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | [Table_Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 5502 | 5294 | 6116 | 6868 | 7532 | | 增长率（ % ） | -9.1% | -3.8% | 15.5% | 12.3% | 9.7% | | EBITDA （百万元） | 720 | 827 | 1124 | 1349 | 1574 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 494 | 538 | 744 | 931 | 1126 | | 增长率（ % ） | 5.8% | 9.1% | 38.2% | 25.1% | 21.0% | | EPS （元 / 股） | 1.08 | 1.13 | 1.54 | 1.92 | 2.32 | | 市盈 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 47.8 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 41.70 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company has released a mid-year performance forecast for 2024, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.35-1.5 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 144%-171%. The net profit for the second quarter alone is projected to be 950-1,100 million CNY, reflecting an increase of 86%-116% year-on-year [1]. - The improvement in performance is primarily driven by the completion of low-priced ship deliveries and the commencement of high-priced order confirmations. Currently, only about 5% of the company's backlog consists of low-priced ships, which have been largely delivered, allowing for a faster overall delivery pace and an anticipated quicker improvement in profitability [1]. - Looking ahead, the shipbuilding industry is expected to enter a new phase of sustained performance exceeding expectations. New ship prices have been on the rise since 2021, with an average annual increase of 8-10%. The confirmation of orders in 2024 will mainly come from orders placed before 2022, with high-priced orders expected to be confirmed in 2025-2026. The industry is witnessing three new changes: increasing order volumes, nominal ship prices likely reaching historical highs, and a performance explosion in ship enterprises, all of which are being validated [1]. - The report forecasts that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 5.16 billion CNY in 2024, 7.67 billion CNY in 2025, and 10.7 billion CNY in 2026. Based on historical valuation metrics, a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 4 times is applied for 2024, leading to a fair value estimate of 47.8 CNY per share [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a revenue of 95.236 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 27.3%. The net profit is projected to be 5.16 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 74.5% [5]. - The EBITDA is anticipated to be 8.544 billion CNY in 2024, with a significant recovery from previous losses [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 1.15 CNY in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 36.14 [5]. Market Outlook - The shipbuilding industry is entering a new era characterized by rising order volumes and improving profitability. The report emphasizes the importance of capitalizing on this new phase of investment opportunities in the shipbuilding sector [1].