Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the media industry, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [60]. Core Insights - Since 2023, the launch of AI hardware has become a significant focus in the market, with AI toys gaining attention for their dual role in education and companionship, presenting a high-potential, high-engagement market segment. The global AI toy market was valued at $12.143 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $36.377 billion by 2030 [3][29]. - The overseas AI toy market has seen rapid development since 2020, expanding functionalities from simple dialogue to personalized interactions, leveraging technologies such as facial recognition and natural language processing [3][31]. - Domestic AI toys have evolved to handle complex scenarios, with monetization strategies including B2B, B2C, and model functionality payments. Companies like FoloToy and ByteDance have successfully integrated AI capabilities into their products [4][34]. Summary by Sections AI Toys: Application Scenarios - The report highlights the increasing focus on AI hardware since 2023, with major tech companies launching various AI devices. The AI toy segment is identified as a promising area due to its educational and emotional support capabilities [24][29]. Domestic and International AI Toy Products - The report details the growth of the international AI toy market, which has surpassed $10 billion, with a reported growth of 18% from 2022 to 2023. Notable products include AI toys that can engage in storytelling and personalized interactions [31][32]. Representative Listed Companies in AI Toy Sector - Companies such as Shifeng Culture, Tom Cat, and Aofei Entertainment are actively developing AI toys. Shifeng Culture has launched the original IP "Feifei Rabbit" smart toy, while Tom Cat plans to release its AI robot by the upcoming Spring Festival [42][48]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential of the AI toy market, recommending a focus on companies like Shifeng Culture, Tom Cat, Aofei Entertainment, and Shanghai Film, which have established IP reserves and strategic partnerships in the AI toy space [5][53].

Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "Buy" for 2025, maintaining the previous rating of "Buy" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of the sector's beta, highlighting the increasing certainty of the product, capacity, and inventory cycles. It notes that the military sector has shown stable growth in ROE since 2019, positively impacting PB valuation [2][56]. - The report suggests that the military sector's ROE is expected to improve, with a focus on selecting core assets with upward trends in ROE. The market's attention to ROE trends and stability is anticipated to increase due to new policies and market conditions [2][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Emphasis on Sector Beta: Increasing Certainty of Three Cycles - The core of the military investment framework is to grasp the interplay of product, capacity, and inventory cycles. The report identifies the need to find high-prosperity tracks and quality leaders within these cycles [56][57]. - The product cycle is the driving force behind growth, influenced by the rhythm of core equipment development and production. The report indicates that geopolitical discussions are significant for long-term product cycle curves but have limited mid-term implications [56]. - The capacity cycle reflects demand and is crucial for understanding profit elasticity. The military sector's planned nature of demand and government procurement leads to a high degree of planning in capacity investments [56]. - The inventory cycle is a lagging reflection of the capacity cycle, representing the internal cash flow turnover before revenue realization [56]. 2. Confirmation of Bottom: PB-ROE Model Analysis - The report analyzes the military sector's elasticity for 2025 through the PB-ROE model, indicating a strong correlation between ROE trends and PB valuation. It highlights that many key stocks are currently at relative low points in terms of PB and ROE [2][56]. 3. Core Stock Selection: Focus on ROE Uptrend - The report advocates for selecting military core assets with upward trends in ROE, emphasizing the importance of stable growth in net profit margins and turnover rates. It suggests a focus on sectors such as military trade, aviation engines, and large aircraft maintenance [2][56]. 4. Stock Selection Strategy: Optimized PB-ROE Approach - The report outlines four investment strategies for the military sector in 2025, including emphasizing stable growth in ROE, identifying potential reversals in ROE cycles, focusing on macro narratives, and considering the potential of state-owned enterprise reforms [2][56].

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Buy" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The heavy truck industry showed a month-on-month improvement in October, with exports maintaining a good year-on-year growth rate [2]. - In October, wholesale heavy truck sales decreased by 18.2% year-on-year, while terminal sales fell by 19.4%. However, exports increased by 17.1% year-on-year [2][19]. - The total inventory in the heavy truck industry is at a healthy level, with a decrease in total inventory both year-on-year and month-on-month [2][11]. - Logistics demand has shown recovery since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 3.2% in road freight turnover from January to October [2][11]. - Market share for major heavy truck manufacturers has increased, with significant gains for companies like Sinotruk and Shaanxi Heavy Truck [2][11]. Summary by Sections Sales - In October, heavy truck wholesale sales were 66,000 units, down 18.2% year-on-year but up 15.0% month-on-month. Cumulative wholesale sales from January to October reached 749,000 units, down 4.9% year-on-year [19][21]. - Terminal sales in October were 45,000 units, down 19.4% year-on-year but up 2.8% month-on-month, with cumulative terminal sales of 476,000 units, down 9.8% year-on-year [21][22]. Inventory - As of the end of October, total inventory in the heavy truck industry was 128,000 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 27,000 units and a month-on-month decrease of 600 units. The dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio was 2.4, indicating a reasonable level [2][11]. Demand - The logistics demand has been recovering, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 3.2% in road freight turnover from January to October, and a monthly growth rate of 3.9% in October [2][11]. Market Share - From January to October, the market share of Sinotruk and Shaanxi Heavy Truck increased by 0.8 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points, reaching 27.4% and 16.6%, respectively [2][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huazhu Group-S (01179 HK) and Huazhu (HTHT O) with a target price of HKD 36 01 per share for the Hong Kong-listed stock and USD 46 28 per ADS for the US-listed stock [5] Core Views - Huazhu Group reported Q3 2024 revenue of RMB 6 44 billion (+2 4% YoY) at the lower end of the guidance range Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1 27 billion (-4 8% YoY) while adjusted net profit was RMB 1 37 billion (-10 8% YoY) [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024 the company achieved revenue of RMB 17 87 billion (+9 6% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3 00 billion (-10 3% YoY) Adjusted net profit for the period was RMB 3 40 billion (+13 4% YoY) [1] - Domestic RevPAR ADR and occupancy rates in Q3 2024 were RMB 256 (-8 1% YoY) RMB 301 (-7 0% YoY) and 84 9% (-1 0 pct YoY) respectively International RevPAR ADR and occupancy rates were EUR 82 (+3 7% YoY) EUR 117 (+2 5% YoY) and 69 8% (+0 8 pct YoY) respectively [1] - The company accelerated its domestic hotel openings with 774 new hotels in Q3 2024 (a record high) and a net increase of 557 hotels bringing the total domestic hotel count to 10 707 By the end of Q3 2024 the company had opened 1 910 hotels domestically achieving 87% of its annual target of 2 200+ hotels [1] Financial Performance - Operating costs increased to 59 0% (+1 5 pct YoY) in Q3 2024 mainly due to rising labor costs (21 3% +2 4 pct YoY) Sales expenses were 4 7% (+0 1 pct YoY) and management expenses were 10 4% (+1 9 pct YoY) Net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 19 8% (-1 5 pct YoY) while adjusted net profit margin was 21 3% (-3 2 pct YoY) [2] - Revenue growth guidance for Q4 2024 is 1%-5% (regardless of DH inclusion) The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3 7 billion RMB 4 5 billion and RMB 5 0 billion for 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] Growth and Profitability - Revenue growth is projected at 7 9% 6 7% and 5 8% for 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 21 6% and 12 2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] - ROE is forecasted at 23 1% 21 8% and 19 5% for 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] Valuation - The report values Huazhu Group at 24x PE for 2025 corresponding to a fair value of HKD 36 01 per share for the Hong Kong-listed stock and USD 46 28 per ADS for the US-listed stock [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel with a target price of HKD 20.18 per share, based on a 25-year 13X PE valuation [2][6] Core Views - Tongcheng Travel's 24Q3 GMV grew 2.4% YoY to RMB 72.8 billion, with revenue increasing 51.3% YoY to RMB 4.99 billion [1] - Adjusted net profit for 24Q3 rose 46.6% YoY to RMB 910 million, with an adjusted net margin of 18.2% [1] - 24Q3 adjusted EBITDA increased 51.6% YoY to RMB 1.32 billion, maintaining a 26.4% margin [1] - MPU grew 5% YoY to 46.4 million, while APU increased 3.4% YoY to 230 million, and ARPU surged 53.2% YoY [1] Business Segment Performance - Transportation ticketing revenue grew 20.6% YoY to RMB 2.03 billion in 24Q3 [2] - Accommodation booking revenue increased 22.2% YoY to RMB 1.38 billion in 24Q3 [2] Operational Highlights - Sales expense ratio decreased 9.1pp YoY to 29% in 24Q3, reflecting improved marketing efficiency [2] - International ticket volume grew over 110% YoY, and international hotel room nights increased over 130% YoY in 24Q3 [2] - Cross-selling rate improved to 12% [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow 44.2% YoY to RMB 17.2 billion in 2024, with further growth of 17.2% and 19.5% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to reach RMB 2.72 billion in 2024, growing 24.4% YoY, with continued growth of 22.6% and 20.5% in 2025 and 2026 [2] - Non-GAAP EPS is projected to increase from RMB 1.21 in 2024 to RMB 1.78 in 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 196.00 and a reasonable value of HKD 205.82 [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the approval of SKB264 as the first domestically developed original drug for treating advanced or metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) marks a significant milestone in the company's development process [2]. - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 16.55 billion, RMB 18.06 billion, RMB 24.23 billion for the years 2024 to 2026 respectively [2]. - The report emphasizes the successful progress of the company's drug pipeline, particularly in the TROP2 ADC platform, which is anticipated to drive revenue growth [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has made significant advancements in its drug development pipeline, particularly with SKB264, which has received approval for treating advanced or metastatic TNBC [2]. - The report notes that the company has successfully submitted two New Drug Applications (NDA) for EGFR-TKI in China, indicating a strong domestic market presence [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2022 was RMB 804 million, with a projected increase to RMB 1.54 billion in 2023, and further growth to RMB 1.655 billion and RMB 1.806 billion in 2024 and 2025 respectively [4]. - The report forecasts a significant growth rate of 2,387.3% in 2022, followed by 91.6% in 2023, and a more moderate growth rate of 7.4% in 2024 [4]. Profitability Metrics - The report indicates that the company is currently operating at a loss, with a projected net profit of -RMB 728 million in 2024 and -RMB 919 million in 2025 [4]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 65.6% in 2022 to 71.3% by 2026, reflecting better operational efficiency [4]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic TROP2 ADC market, with expectations for significant market share growth as new drugs are launched [2]. - The report suggests that the company’s innovative drug pipeline and successful clinical trials will enhance its competitive edge in the biopharmaceutical industry [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the acceleration of low-orbit satellite mobile direct connection applications, particularly through Huawei's Mate series, which now supports multiple satellite communication systems [2][3] - The report emphasizes the potential growth in the domestic satellite internet manufacturing and ground equipment sectors, as well as the terminal side and rocket industry chain leaders [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the advancements in satellite communication technology, particularly the launch of Huawei's Mate X6, which is the first mass-market smartphone to support three satellite communication systems [2] - It notes the successful testing of low-orbit satellite internet systems, with public testing expected to begin in the second half of 2025 [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic satellite internet manufacturing, ground equipment, and terminal sectors, as well as key players in the rocket industry chain such as Guobo Electronics and Ruichuang Micro-Nano [2][3] Company Analysis - Specific companies mentioned include: - Haige Communication (002465.SZ) with a current price of 11.81 CNY and a target price of 14.29 CNY, rated as "Increase" [5] - Guangwei Composite (300699.SZ) with a current price of 32.60 CNY and a target price of 43.26 CNY, rated as "Increase" [5] - Ruichuang Micro-Nano (688002.SH) with a current price of 45.35 CNY and a target price of 62.57 CNY, rated as "Buy" [5] - Other companies include Bolite (688333.SH), Gaohua Technology (688539.SH), and Zhongke Xingtai (688568.SH), all rated as "Increase" [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The micro-drama industry continues to grow, driven by the supply of quality micro-dramas, free models, overseas expansion, and AI empowerment. The market size of the micro-drama industry is expected to reach 50.4 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly 35% [2][3] - The competition landscape in the domestic short drama app market shows a strong rivalry between Hongguo and Heima/Xingya, with Hongguo's monthly active users (MAU) surpassing 120 million in September 2024. The revenue sharing from Hongguo's short dramas exceeded 200 million yuan in September, with four works generating over 3 million yuan each [2][3] - The overseas market for short dramas presents significant opportunities, with varying content preferences and payment awareness across different regions. The acceleration of commercialization and the rise of platforms like TikTok are expected to enhance profit margins for domestic content production companies [2][3] Summary by Sections Industry Growth - The micro-drama market is projected to grow to 50.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of nearly 35% year-on-year. The industry is also seeing a push towards standardization and quality content supply [2][3] Competitive Landscape - The competitive dynamics in the domestic short drama app market highlight Hongguo's dominance, with significant user engagement and revenue generation. The ecosystem encourages content creators to produce more quality content, leading to a positive feedback loop for advertising revenue [2][3] Overseas Expansion - The report emphasizes the vast potential of the overseas short drama market, where domestic companies can leverage AI technology for content adaptation and marketing efficiency. This includes rapid translation and subtitle generation for international audiences [2][3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Mango Super Media, Huace Film & TV, and Ningmeng Film & TV, with a focus on platforms, content production, marketing, technology, and content review sectors [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 15.24 CNY, compared to the current price of 14.45 CNY [2][3][4] Core Views - The company has a diversified business layout in water and solid waste treatment, with a historical CAGR of 44.1% in revenue and 32.9% in net profit from 2019 to 2023 [11] - Large orders in environmental protection projects, particularly in BOT and EPC, support future growth, with contract amounts reaching 3.296 billion CNY in 2023 for BOT projects and 477 million CNY for EPC projects [11] - The company is exploring new business opportunities in renewable energy, including a 1GW photovoltaic project in Wusu City and a hydrogen energy equipment project in Yangzhou [11] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 2.552 billion CNY in 2024E to 4.414 billion CNY in 2026E, with a CAGR of 31.6% [10] - Net profit is projected to increase from 344 million CNY in 2024E to 594 million CNY in 2026E, with a CAGR of 29.8% [10] - The company's ROE is expected to rise from 10.9% in 2024E to 15.0% in 2026E, indicating improving profitability [10] Business Segments - The engineering construction segment contributes 81% of total revenue in 2023, driven by large-scale BOT and EPC projects [53] - The company's BOT projects are expected to generate stable cash flow post-construction, with BOT revenue increasing from 0 in 2021 to 792 million CNY in 2023 [64] - The company is expanding into renewable energy, with a 1GW photovoltaic project in Wusu City and a hydrogen energy equipment project in Yangzhou, aiming to diversify its revenue streams [108][118] Policy Impact - The company is expected to benefit from debt resolution policies, which will improve accounts receivable and open up expansion opportunities in lower-tier cities [11] - The company's investment intensity is higher than peers, with investment cash flow outflows accounting for 39.8% of revenue in 2023, positioning it well for future growth [133][134] Industry Outlook - The environmental protection industry is expected to benefit from debt resolution policies, with accounts receivable improvements and increased demand for waste and water treatment projects [128] - The company's focus on county-level waste incineration projects aligns with national policy goals, providing growth opportunities as local government payment capabilities improve [144][147]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Hold" [3] Core Views - In October, narrow infrastructure investment showed signs of recovery, and the decline in real estate sales significantly narrowed. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in October 2024, the year-on-year changes for real estate development investment, new construction area, sales area, construction area, and completed area were -12.3%, -26.7%, -1.6%, -35.0%, and -20.1% respectively, compared to September's -9.4%, -19.9%, -11.0%, -29.5%, and -31.4% [1][46] - Cement prices continued to rise in October, supported by ongoing supply-side policy optimization. The national cement production from January to October 2024 was 1.501 billion tons, down 10.3% year-on-year, with October's production at 175 million tons, down 7.9% year-on-year [1][2] - Float glass demand and sentiment improved in October, with price rebounds due to capacity reductions from cold repairs. The national flat glass production from January to October 2024 was 839 million weight cases, up 4.6% year-on-year, while October's production was 79 million weight cases, down 6.0% year-on-year [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Infrastructure and Real Estate - In October, narrow infrastructure investment growth improved, while real estate investment decline expanded. The year-on-year growth rates for fixed asset investment, real estate development investment, narrow infrastructure, broad infrastructure, and manufacturing investment were -10.3%, +4.3%, +9.3%, +9.3% respectively for January to October 2024 [38] - The October single-month fixed asset investment growth was 3.4%, with real estate development investment at -12.3% [38][46] 2. Cement - Cement prices continued to rise in October, with a national average price of 429 RMB/ton as of November 22, 2024, up 56 RMB/ton year-on-year. The cement shipment rate was 50.13%, down 6.87 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] 3. Float Glass - The float glass market saw a recovery in demand and sentiment in October, with prices rebounding due to capacity reductions. The average price of float glass was 1453 RMB/ton as of November 22, 2024, down 26.9% year-on-year [1][2] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Three Trees, Rabbit Baby, North New Materials, and others in the building materials sector. For cement, it suggests companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement. In the float glass sector, it highlights companies like Qibin Group and Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass [1][2]