并购事件频繁落地。重点关注并购质地不错的新质生产力标的、显著提 [Table_Contacts] 升竞争力增厚业绩的产业链并购、集团优质资产注入等标的。 ⚫ 建议关注：（1）从供给约束到供给优化：资源品以油气（中国石油、 中国石油股份（H）、中国海油、中国海洋石油（H））、矿藏（钛精 矿-龙佰集团、磷矿-云天化&川恒股份）为代表；制造端以民爆（广东 宏大、易普力、江南化工、雪峰科技）、制冷剂（巨化股份）、铬化工 （振华股份）为代表；政策新线索关注设备更新和节能降碳；（2）新 技术、新材料、新趋势：合成生物、真空材料（赛特新材）、润滑油添 加剂（瑞丰新材）、半导体材料等；（3）涨价品种：维生素（新和成 等）。 ⚫ 风险提示：宏观层面：宏观经济下行，相关化工品的需求萎缩；行业层 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in investment sentiment in the real estate sector, particularly in October, with strong performance from leading property companies [2][4] - Central and local governments are implementing policies to support home purchases for families with multiple children, aiming to stabilize the real estate market [12][13] - The report indicates a steady rise in new home sales, with a week-on-week increase of 18.5% in new home transaction area across 51 cities, although year-on-year figures show a decline of 8.5% [3][19] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Policy and Fundamentals Tracking - Central government policies emphasize the need for local authorities to enhance support for multi-child families in home purchases, including increasing housing fund loan limits [12][13] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported that new home sales and second-hand home transaction volumes increased month-on-month in October [12][13] 2. Key City Transaction Situation - In the week of October 25 to October 31, 2024, the monitored 50 cities recorded a total new home transaction area of 591.35 million square meters, marking an 18.5% increase from the previous week [19] - The report notes that first-tier cities saw a significant increase in transaction volumes, with Shanghai experiencing a 92.4% week-on-week growth [24] 3. Key Company Tracking - The report indicates that the top 100 property companies achieved a sales amount of 465.4 billion yuan in October, representing a 70% month-on-month increase and a 5% year-on-year increase, marking the first positive year-on-year growth since May 2023 [4] 4. Real Estate Development Sector Investment View - The report suggests that if the current supportive policies continue to be implemented, the market may see sustained positive sentiment and transaction volumes, benefiting companies with strong land reserves [4] 5. Property Management Sector Investment View - The property management sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading state-owned enterprises and non-default private companies experiencing stock price increases [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry performance in Q3 was generally stable, with expectations for improved electricity coal demand as the peak season approaches [2][40] - Recent market dynamics indicate a slight decline in port thermal coal prices, while the coking coal market remains weak and stable. The CCI5500 thermal coal price index decreased by 3 RMB/ton to 855 RMB/ton [2][8] - The report highlights that while coal prices have generally declined in Q2 and Q3, profit margins remain relatively stable, with most companies exceeding performance expectations in their Q3 reports [2] Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices at ports have slightly decreased, with the CCI5500 thermal coal price at 855 RMB/ton as of November 1, 2024, down 3 RMB/ton week-on-week. The annual long-term contract price for November is 699 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month [2][8] - Domestic port coal prices have slightly declined, with weak downstream purchasing sentiment. However, some high-calorific coal prices in Shanxi and Shaanxi regions have increased due to temporary production halts [2][8] - The report notes that the overall coal inventory is sufficient, and with the arrival of winter storage demand, coal prices are expected to rebound gradually [2][8] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices will remain stable or slightly increase due to rising winter storage demand and limited supply growth. The macroeconomic outlook is improving, which is expected to support coal prices [2][40] - The average dividend yield for the industry is projected to exceed 5% as of November 1, 2024, indicating significant valuation and dividend advantages for the sector [2] Key Companies - Key companies with stable profits and high dividends include Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [3] - Companies with low valuations and long-term growth potential include Yancoal Energy and China Coal Energy [3] - Companies expected to benefit from improved demand and production recovery include Huaibei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Shanxi Coking Coal, and others [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the construction industry [1]. Core Insights - The construction sector experienced a significant performance decline in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year revenue drop of 15.1%. The total revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was 62,359 billion CNY, reflecting a 4.9% decrease compared to the previous year. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 19,859 billion CNY, down 8.3% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1-Q3 2024 was 1,385.5 billion CNY, a decline of 11.6%, with Q3 net profit falling by 15.1% to 401.4 billion CNY [1][7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Construction Sector - The construction sector's performance was under pressure, with a 15.1% year-on-year decline in Q3 2024. The overall revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 4.9%, while Q3 revenue saw an 8.3% drop. The net profit for Q1-Q3 2024 was down 11.6%, with Q3 net profit declining by 15.1% [1][7]. 2. Housing Construction Sector - Major player China State Construction saw a revenue decline of 14.5% and a net profit drop of 25.7% in Q3 2024. However, operational cash flow improved significantly, with a net inflow of 314.42 billion CNY, an increase of 324.90 billion CNY compared to the previous year [1][7]. 3. Infrastructure Sector - The infrastructure sector faced overall pressure, with Q1-Q3 2024 revenue down 4.5% and Q3 revenue down 4.2%. The net profit for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 11.8%, with Q3 net profit down 14.1% [1][7]. 4. International Engineering Sector - The international engineering sector showed strong performance in Q3 2024, with a net profit increase of 9.8% and an improved gross margin of 17.0%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [1][7]. 5. Engineering Consulting Sector - The engineering consulting sector faced pressure, with Q3 revenue down 2.7% and net profit down 25.7% [1][7]. 6. Steel Structure Sector - The steel structure sector experienced an expanded revenue decline of 9.8% in Q3 2024, while the net profit decline was narrowed to 6.0% [1][7]. 7. Other Sectors - The chemical engineering sector showed improvement, while the landscaping and decoration sectors continued to incur losses [1][7]. 8. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises with stable dividends and improving performance, recommending companies such as China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction, and China State Construction. It also highlights opportunities in international expansion and sectors like mining services and water conservancy [1][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Views - Revenue has shown a recovery with significant improvement in profit margins. The leading companies are experiencing a "Matthew Effect" where their market share is increasing due to better performance [1][21] - The report highlights that the demand is weakly recovering, with improvements in sales volume observed in September 2024. The consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) are expected to stabilize [9][10] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with improved operations and competitive advantages, such as Tianwei Food, Angel Yeast, Fuling Mustard, and Haitian Flavor Industry [1][21] Revenue Summary - Q3 saw a sequential improvement in sales, particularly in basic seasoning products. For instance, Haitian Flavor Industry's revenue increased by 9.83% year-on-year, while Q3 sales for Angel Yeast grew by 27.14% [1][17] - The report indicates that the sales volume of compound seasonings improved as the weather cooled, with Tianwei Food's revenue increasing by 10.93% year-on-year in Q3 [1][17] Profit Summary - The profit margins have significantly improved due to a reduction in raw material costs and a decrease in expenses. For example, the gross profit margin for Haitian Flavor Industry improved by 2.07% year-on-year in Q3 [23][24] - The report notes that the cost of key raw materials such as soybeans and sugar has decreased, contributing to better gross margins across the industry [23][24] Future Outlook - The leading companies are expected to continue gaining market share as they recover from previous adjustments. The report anticipates a gradual improvement in demand as the industry enters the peak season [21][22] - The report emphasizes that the competitive landscape is shifting, with fewer new entrants in the seasoning market, which may benefit established players [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the communication industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The financial reports of four major cloud vendors indicate continued high growth in AI business and capital expenditures (CapEx). The demand for AI and the investment return paths are becoming clearer [7][8]. - Google reported a significant increase in cloud revenue, driven by AI infrastructure and solutions, with Q3 revenue reaching $11.35 billion, a year-on-year growth of 35.0% [7][8]. - Microsoft faces a capacity gap affecting cloud growth but remains optimistic about future AI returns, with Q1 FY25 intelligent cloud revenue at $24.09 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase [9]. - Meta's advertising business has seen substantial growth, with Q3 revenue of $40.589 billion, up 19% year-on-year, largely due to AI advancements [10]. - Amazon's AWS revenue reached $27.45 billion in Q3, a 19.1% year-on-year increase, with CapEx growing significantly due to AI demand [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights - The financial performance of major cloud vendors highlights the accelerating monetization of AI investments, with Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon all reporting strong growth in their respective cloud and AI-related businesses [7][8][9][10][11]. 2. Market Review - The communication sector experienced a decline of 3.28% this week, underperforming the broader market [14]. However, year-to-date, the communication sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.3% [14][17]. 3. Industry Data Updates - As of the end of 2023, China has built 3.377 million 5G base stations, a net increase of 1.065 million from the previous year, representing 29.1% of total mobile base stations [25]. - In September 2024, domestic smartphone shipments totaled 25.371 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%, with 5G smartphones accounting for 88.9% of total shipments [26]. - The number of 5G users in China reached 539 million by September 2024, with significant growth in IoT terminal users [28][30]. 4. Recent News - Apple is investing $1.5 billion in Globalstar to enhance satellite communication capabilities, which has led to a significant increase in Globalstar's stock price [37][38]. - Huawei reported a revenue of 585.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.45% [39][40].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The textile manufacturing sector remains buoyant, while the apparel and home textile sectors face performance pressures. For the first three quarters of 2024, the textile and apparel industry reported revenues of CNY 168.38 billion, a year-on-year decline of 0.6%, and a net profit of CNY 9.09 billion, down 14.4% year-on-year [3][19] - The textile manufacturing segment showed resilience with revenue growth in Q1-3 2024, while the apparel and home textile segment struggled due to consumer demand pressures [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The textile manufacturing sector is experiencing healthy demand recovery, while the apparel and home textile sectors are under pressure due to the broader economic environment [3][19] 2. Operational Performance - Revenue and net profit trends for the textile and apparel industry from 2022 to Q3 2024 show fluctuations, with textile manufacturing revenues increasing by 5.6% in Q3 2024, while apparel and home textiles saw declines [3][4][19] - Key operational metrics such as inventory turnover and accounts receivable turnover have remained stable across the industry [4] 3. Segment Performance - The textile manufacturing segment is expected to maintain optimistic performance in Q4 2024, driven by improved order demand and capacity utilization [4] - The apparel and home textile segment is projected to see a sequential improvement in Q4 2024, with some sub-sectors showing resilience [4] 4. Investment Recommendations - For the textile manufacturing sector, focus on leading companies in auxiliary materials and packaging, as well as strong competitors in sportswear and specialty fabrics [5] - In the apparel and home textile sector, attention should be given to companies with stable Q3 performance and those positioned to benefit from potential real estate market recovery [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [4] Core Views - Base metals are expected to continue rising as uncertainties decrease, with a focus on the impact of U.S. elections and domestic policy [15][17] - Steel mills are seeing a recovery in profitability, with attention on the effectiveness of macro policies in November [17] - Precious metals are anticipated to reach new highs due to a combination of safe-haven demand and financial attributes [18] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are expected to face downward price pressure despite some resilience in demand [19] - Small metals like tungsten and molybdenum are projected to stabilize, with attention on supply conditions in Myanmar affecting rare earths [20] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals - Prices are expected to rise due to improved domestic demand and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. As of October 31, copper social inventory in China was 267,900 tons, down 8,400 tons from the previous week, indicating tight supply [15][16] - Aluminum supply remains tight with social inventory at 597,000 tons, down 33,000 tons from the previous month, supporting price increases [16] - Zinc and lead markets are also expected to see price increases due to tight supply and improving demand [16] 2. Steel - Steel mill profitability has improved, with a reported increase of 42.44 percentage points to 61.06% in October. However, low profitability may continue to constrain supply [17] - The price of rebar in Shanghai decreased by 17.59% to 17,800 tons, while the price of iron ore increased by 2.73% to 770.50 yuan per ton [17] 3. Precious Metals - The U.S. core PCE index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in September, and the unemployment rate was 4.1% in October, aligning with expectations. The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November, which, along with geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to drive gold prices higher [18] 4. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain under pressure due to anticipated oversupply, despite a slight increase in demand [19] 5. Small Metals - The price of tungsten increased by 2.74% to 140,600 yuan per ton in October, while molybdenum prices rose by 1.90% to 3,745 yuan per ton. The situation in Myanmar regarding rare earth supply is being closely monitored [20]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for multiple companies in the textile and apparel industry, including 比音勒芬, 报喜鸟, 锦泓集团, 海澜之家, 朗姿股份, 太平鸟, and others [3][4]. Core Insights - The first wave of sales during the 2024 Double Eleven shopping festival saw a significant increase in total online sales, reaching 845 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 105.9% compared to 409.4 billion CNY in the same period of 2023 [1][2]. - The growth in sales was driven by both comprehensive e-commerce platforms, which generated 678.5 billion CNY (up 118.5% year-on-year), and live-streaming e-commerce platforms, which achieved 164.5 billion CNY (up 66.3% year-on-year) [1][2]. - The report highlights the stability of the competitive landscape in the clothing and home textile sectors, with leading brands maintaining their positions in sales rankings across various categories [2]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - The comprehensive e-commerce sales during the first wave of Double Eleven reached 678.5 billion CNY, marking a 118.5% increase from the previous year [1][4]. - Live-streaming e-commerce platforms saw sales of 164.5 billion CNY, reflecting a 66.3% year-on-year growth [1][4]. Brand Rankings - In the Tmall channel, the top brands in men's clothing included 优衣库, 波司登, and 太平鸟, while in women's clothing, 波司登 maintained the top position [2]. - The rankings in the children's clothing sector were led by 巴拉巴拉, with significant movements in brand positions across various categories [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the textile and apparel sector that performed well during the Double Eleven sales, as they are expected to benefit from the strong sales momentum [2][3]. - Companies with stable third-quarter performance and strong retail results, particularly in the leisurewear and children's clothing segments, are highlighted as having short-term resilience and long-term growth potential [2][3]. Stock Recommendations - Specific stock recommendations include 比音勒芬, 森马服饰, 报喜鸟, and others for A-shares, while 安踏体育, 波司登, and 李宁 are recommended for Hong Kong stocks [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 26.73 CNY per share, indicating an expected strong performance relative to the market [3][4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in performance for Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 75.42 billion CNY (up 16.6% year-on-year) and a net profit of 6.408 billion CNY (up 241.5% year-on-year), driven by rising livestock prices and decreasing breeding costs [1][2]. - The company sold 21.562 million pigs in the first three quarters, a 17.7% increase year-on-year, with a Q3 average selling price of 19.48 CNY/kg and estimated profit per pig of approximately 680-700 CNY [1]. - Chicken sales also saw a year-on-year increase of 4.7% in Q3, with an average selling price of 13.14 CNY/kg and estimated profit per chicken of 2.5-2.7 CNY [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 75.42 billion CNY and a net profit of 6.408 billion CNY, with a significant increase in profitability compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The company’s EPS for 2024 is projected to be 1.57 CNY, with expected growth rates of 263.4% for net profit in 2024 and 21.6% in 2025 [2][19]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio decreased to 54.86%, down 4.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating improved financial stability [1]. Sales and Production Insights - The company’s pig sales in Q3 reached 7.188 million heads, a 9.9% increase year-on-year, reflecting strong market demand [1]. - The company continues to optimize its breeding structure, with production biological assets valued at 4.849 billion CNY, showing a 1.2% increase from the previous quarter [1]. - The chicken production maintained high levels, with Q3 sales of 323 million birds, contributing to overall profitability [1].