北证交易活跃度回升，北证 50 指数领涨 市场 ——北交所周报（2025 年 9 月第 1 周） 本报告导读： 9 月第 1 周 A 股市场沪深两市震荡调整，周二到周四持续回落，周五回暖，北证 50 指数周五大幅上涨 5.15%，单周累计上涨 2.79%，领涨市场。与此同时，北证交易 活跃度回升，日均成交金额环比回升 9.36%至 359.84 亿元。当周北交所无股票招股， 无新股上市。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 新股精要—全国性的高值医疗器械流通商建发致 新 2025.09.09 IPO 月度数据一览（2025 年 8 月） 2025.09.05 北证 50 指数震荡回调，北交所交易活跃度有所回 落 2025.09.02 新股精要—智能配电设备领先生产企业昊创瑞通 2025.09.01 北证 50 指数创历史新高，北证交易活跃度大幅提 升 2025.08.26 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | | | | [Table_Authors] | | | --- | --- | | | 王政之(分析师) | | | 021-38674944 | | | wan ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 68.56 CNY [6][12] Core Views - The company has achieved steady revenue growth in H1 2025, driven by its digital transformation and the potential of its Athena digital native platform, alongside expanding AI applications and overseas business opportunities [2][12] - The company is expected to maintain growth momentum, with projected revenues of 26.58 billion CNY, 30.25 billion CNY, and 33.73 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a strong demand for AI infrastructure and industry-specific solutions [12][13] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,228 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 11.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 150 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 12.3% [4][13] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow to 2,658 million CNY in 2025, representing a 14.0% increase from 2024 [4][14] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.55 CNY in 2023 to 0.72 CNY in 2025 [4][13] Business Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.45 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 4.08%, and a net profit of 0.45 million CNY, up 6.09% [12][13] - The AI business revenue saw a significant increase of 125.91% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in this segment [12][13] - The company has successfully expanded its international operations, particularly in Southeast Asia, serving approximately 800 enterprise clients and achieving a revenue growth of 60.87% in this region [12][13]

Core Insights - The report analyzes the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on various asset classes, categorizing them into two types: accommodative cuts and preventive cuts, with the former occurring during economic downturns and the latter aimed at preventing potential recessions [4][8][9] - Historical data shows that equity assets tend to perform better during preventive cuts, while they generally decline during accommodative cuts [4][9][11] - The report highlights that U.S. Treasury yields typically decrease following accommodative cuts, while their behavior during preventive cuts is less predictable [11][22] - Currency movements are mixed initially after rate cuts, but diverge significantly after 2-3 months, with the dollar often weakening during accommodative cuts and strengthening during preventive cuts [28] - Commodity prices show a weaker correlation with rate cuts, although gold tends to perform better during accommodative cuts compared to preventive cuts [29][32] Equity Market Analysis - Equity assets have a higher success rate during preventive cuts, with most equity markets, including the U.S. and A-shares, showing positive performance [9][14] - The report notes that the performance of A-shares has a degree of independence from U.S. markets, particularly during rate cut periods [9][16] - Historical performance indicates that after a month of preventive cuts, the likelihood of equity price increases rises significantly [14][20] Bond Market Analysis - U.S. Treasury yields generally decline after the first rate cut, with average decreases of 5 basis points (BP) within 30 days [22][23] - The report indicates that the behavior of Chinese bonds tends to follow a similar pattern, with yields typically decreasing shortly after rate cuts [22][26] - However, the report cautions that the relationship between bond yields in Europe and Japan with U.S. rate cuts is less clear [11][24] Currency Market Analysis - The dollar's performance post-rate cut is inconsistent in the initial months, but shows a tendency to strengthen during preventive cuts and weaken during accommodative cuts [28] - The report highlights that the Chinese yuan's movements are relatively independent of U.S. rate cuts, with a tendency to depreciate during preventive cuts and appreciate during accommodative cuts [28] Commodity Market Analysis - Gold prices tend to rise more significantly during accommodative cuts, with historical data showing substantial increases in the months following such cuts [29][32] - In contrast, oil prices do not exhibit a clear relationship with rate cuts, suggesting that other factors, such as supply and demand dynamics, play a more significant role [31]

Group 1: Macro Insights - In August 2025, China's export growth rate was 4.4% year-on-year, down from 7.2%, while import growth was 1.3%, down from 4.1% [5][6] - The trade surplus has rebounded, with a notable shift in export structure towards ASEAN countries and a decrease in exports to Latin America due to new tariffs [7][8] - The impact of re-export regulations from ASEAN countries is a key risk, but the overall effect on China's export growth is expected to be limited [7][8] Group 2: Strategy Observations - The Federal Reserve is signaling a potential interest rate cut due to concerns over inflation and a cooling labor market, which could expand China's monetary policy space [12][14] - Recent policies focus on market-oriented reforms in the electronic information manufacturing sector and the promotion of AI and satellite communication industries [13][14] Group 3: Automotive Industry - In August 2025, China's wholesale passenger car sales reached 2.409 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month-on-month increase of 8% [23][24] - The new energy vehicle segment saw a significant year-on-year increase of 23%, with sales reaching 1.292 million units [23][24] - The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period is expected to boost sales, supported by new model launches and favorable policies [23][24] Group 4: Durable Consumer Goods - The furniture sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with leading companies expanding product lines and enhancing customer engagement through various channels [27][29] - Government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and supporting the furniture industry are expected to provide a favorable environment for growth [28][29] Group 5: Cultural Industry - The publishing industry is stable, with a notable increase in net profit due to tax incentives, despite a slight decline in revenue [31][32] - Companies are actively investing in AI and intellectual property, with recommendations for high dividend yield stocks in the sector [31][32] Group 6: Oil Industry - OPEC+ is considering further production increases, which may lead to an imbalance in oil supply and demand as the peak season ends [35][36] - Investment recommendations focus on leading companies that can benefit from the expected recovery in downstream demand and improved market conditions [36][37] Group 7: Construction Industry - The issuance of special bonds has increased, while net financing from urban investment bonds has decreased, indicating a mixed funding environment for construction projects [38][40] - New housing transaction volumes have declined, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant policy developments aimed at enhancing sustainable practices within the industry, including the revision of sustainability reporting guidelines by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the introduction of a nitrogen oxide emission control action plan [6][9][10] - The establishment of a resource recycling demonstration base in Tianjin marks a significant step towards a circular economy, aiming to create a zero-carbon park and integrate various green technologies [17][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) practices, with notable achievements such as the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's social responsibility report receiving a five-star rating [20][21] Policy Developments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has opened public consultation on revised guidelines for sustainability reporting, focusing on environmental issues such as pollutant emissions, energy use, and water resource management [6][8] - A joint action plan by three departments aims to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions in key industrial sectors by 2030, setting ambitious targets for emission reductions and promoting technological innovation [9][10][12] Industry Trends - A three-year nationwide action plan has been launched to strengthen bird protection, involving 17 departments and focusing on monitoring, enforcement, and public education [15][16] - The first resource recycling demonstration base in China has begun trial operations in Tianjin, aiming to establish a leading zero-carbon park and promote circular economy practices [17][19] - The Shenzhen State-owned Assets report showcases the city's commitment to social responsibility and sustainable development, achieving a five-star rating for its comprehensive disclosure [20][21] International Events - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has committed to expanding practical cooperation in sustainable investment among member states [23] - The world's largest iceberg, A23a, is disintegrating due to climate change, highlighting the ongoing impacts of global warming [24][25] - Denmark has received approval for a significant national aid package to build new forests, aiming to restore agricultural land to nature by 2045 [26] Corporate Developments - The first cross-border renewable energy project in Asia has commenced full commercial operation, enhancing energy cooperation between China and Laos [27][28] - Yingkang Life has achieved the highest ESG rating of AAA, reflecting its commitment to sustainable practices and social responsibility [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][13]. Core Views - The company has entered a performance contribution phase with its local branch network, while exploring new expansion models through acquisitions and franchises outside the province. The impact of the dental implant procurement has passed, and the orthodontic business is stabilizing and recovering [2][13]. - The company achieved a revenue of 1.448 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.68%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 321 million yuan, up 3.67% year-on-year [13]. - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 to 1.20, 1.29, and 1.41 yuan, respectively, and sets a target price of 48.48 yuan based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 40.5X for 2025 [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2.847 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.363 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.2% [4][14]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 500 million yuan in 2023 to 629 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 8.8% [4][14]. - The company operates 89 medical institutions with 4,452 professional medical personnel and over 3100 dental treatment units, serving 1.7322 million outpatient visits in the first half of 2025 [13]. Business Performance - The revenue from the company's various business segments in the first half of 2025 includes: dental implants (255 million yuan), orthodontics (229 million yuan), pediatrics (236 million yuan), restoration (230 million yuan), and comprehensive services (394 million yuan), with year-on-year growth rates of 0.02%, 7.75%, -1.48%, 3.59%, and 2.44%, respectively [13]. - The company has established five regional groups in Zhejiang Province, enhancing its penetration and service capabilities through a "regional general hospital + branch" structure [13]. Technology and Innovation - The company utilizes AI technology through its self-developed MindHub platform, which supports clinical diagnosis, patient services, and operational management, enhancing efficiency and aiding in further expansion [13].

新 股 研 究 新股精要—全国性的高值医疗器械流通商 建发致新 ——IPO 专题 本报告导读： 建发致新（301584.SZ）是国内医疗器械配送流通领域头部企业之一，同步拓展 SPD 业务提升客户黏性。2024 年公司实现营收/归母净利润 179.23/2.28 亿元。截至 9 月 8 日，可比公司对应 2024/2025/2026 年平均 PE 分别 25.54/10.07/9.31 倍（剔除港股）。 投资要点： 新股研究/[Table_Date] 2025.09.09 | [Table_Authors] | | | --- | --- | | | 王政之(分析师) | | | 021-38674944 | | | wangzhengzhi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517060002 | | | 施怡昀(分析师) | | | 021-38032690 | | | shiyiyun@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522060002 | | | 王思琪(分析师) | | | 021-38038671 | | | wangsiqi3@gtht.com | | 登记编号 ...

大额买入与资金流向跟踪（20250901-20250905） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 本报告导读： 参考团队前期发布的专题报告选股因子系列研究（五十六、五十七），本报告旨在通 过交易明细数据构建相关指标，跟踪大额买入和净主动买入。 投资要点： | | 021-23219395 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 张耿宇(分析师) | | | 021-23183109 | | | zhanggengyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040078 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20250905） 2025.09.07 高频选股因子周报（20250901-20250905） 2025.09.07 低频选股因子周报（2025.08.29-2025.09.05） 2025.09.06 绝对收益产品及策略周报（250825-250829） 2025.09.03 风格 Smart beta 组合跟踪周报 （2025.08.2 ...

海外降息节奏临近，国内基金费率改革 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 政策与地缘研究 9 月第 1 期 本报告导读： 国内方面，公募基金费率改革第三阶段开启。国外方面，美国 8 月非农数据远低于 预期，美联储新一轮预防式降息将至。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 在通胀担忧与就业放缓并存的背景下，美联储多位票委释放降息信 号，最新就业数据进一步确认了劳动力市场降温趋势，预计新一轮 预防式降息将要来临。鲍威尔表示目前表示策调整的时机已经到来， 降息时机和节奏将取决于后续数据、前景变化和风险平衡，近日美 联储理事沃勒也表示美联储应在本月开始降息，并在未来数月内进 行多次下调。数据上，美国 8 月季调后非农就业人口远低于市场预 期，就业增长的超预期放缓显示劳动力市场恶化显著。美联储若开 启降息，我国汇率与货币政策的操作空间将扩大，政策层面或通过 央行重启国债交易加大基础货币投放、持续引导国内利率及市场化 融资成本下行。 国内经济与产业政策：聚焦要素市场化配置试点、构建城市发展新 模式，电子信息制造业部署稳增长方案，"人工智能+"、卫星通讯 产业部署指导意见。1）9 月 5 日，工信部、市场 ...

产业策略 [table_Header]2025.09.09 医药产业运行数据专题：院内外承压，局部恢 产业研究中心 复 摘要： 风险提示：集采进度和幅度具不确定性，关税等地缘政治风险。 | [Table_Authors] | | | --- | --- | | | 丁丹(分析师) | | | 0755-23976735 | | | dingdan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880514030001 | | | 贺文斌(分析师) | | | 010-68067998 | | | hewenbin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040034 | | | 张拓(分析师) | | | 0755-23976170 | | | zhangtuo@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523090003 | [Table_Report] 往期回顾 1. 医保基金：收入增长稳健，支出增速放缓 治理赋能：美国资管巨头的竞争升维与制度革新 2025.08.14 保基本、强创新——2025 下半年医药产业政策展 望 2025.07.10 创新药月报及 PD-(L)1/VEGF ...