理解重要会议后的债市波动：三个层次的分析 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 本报告导读： "温和"的中性偏多，短期中对债市配置盘入场的推动力有限。 投资要点： | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 杜润琛(分析师) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525110004 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 转债估值及常规因子表现数据库（251208- 251212） 2025.12.13 超长债上行期：保险买入未放量 2025.12.09 12 月首周大行融出规模显著回升 2025.12.09 降息预期下，美债长端承压会持续多久 2025.12.09 破位还是触底？T、TL 合约分化 20251208 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.14 优化集采，支持医药产业创新发展 [Table_Industry] 医药 2025 年全国医疗保障工作会议点评 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 陈铭(分析师) | 021-23219164 | chenming7@gtht.com | S0880525100004 | | 余文心(分析师) | 021-38676666 | yuwenxin@gtht.com | S0880525040111 | 本报告导读： 全国医疗保障工作会议召开，我们认为 2026 年国家医保局将继续推进优化集采政 策，推动生育保险、长护险发展，发挥医保战略购买作用，支持创新药产业发展。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 医药《政策拉动国内市场有效复苏，医疗设备招 采保持快速增长》2025.12.10 医药《医保战略购买引导医药产业创新发展》 2025.12.07 医药《药价透明公开，促进国内创新药全球发 展》2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The revenue performance of Taiwanese manufacturing companies in November showed divergence, with lululemon's Q3 performance exceeding expectations, particularly in the mainland China market, while the North American market remains under pressure. The CEO of lululemon will resign in January 2026, and it is expected that the proportion of new products for the spring season will reach 35% [2][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In November 2025, the revenue of Taiwanese manufacturers such as Yuanyuan, Fengtai, Yuchi, Zhiqiang, Laiyi, and Ruhong showed year-on-year changes of -2.4%, -11.8%, +6.6%, +3.1%, -5.8%, and +1.5% respectively. Cumulative revenue from January to November showed year-on-year changes of +0.9%, -4.9%, +21.2%, +14.7%, +6.2%, and +3.8% [5]. Company Performance - For lululemon's Q3 (ending November 2), revenue was $2.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $2.48 billion. The net profit attributable to shareholders was $310 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%, also exceeding expectations [5]. - In terms of regional performance, Q3 revenue in the Americas, mainland China, and other regions showed year-on-year changes of -2%, +47%, and +19% respectively [5]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the performance of the export manufacturing sector is expected to recover in 2026 due to three main factors: the implementation of U.S. tariff policies, reduced burden of tariff costs shared with brands, and improved efficiency from optimized production line allocation [5]. - Recommended companies include Huayi Group, Jiuxing Holdings, Shenzhou International, and Chaoying International Holdings, with a focus on home textiles, luxury goods, and undervalued high-dividend companies [5].

可控核聚变行业招标显著加速，联创光电与中国能建签署 战略协议 [Table_Report] 相关报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 黄龙(分析师) | 021-38031028 | huanglong@gtht.com | S0880525070027 | 本报告导读： 股 票 研 究 上周（2025/12/8-2025/12/12）可控核聚变领域动态：上周采购需求主要集中在热疲 劳试验机和冷屏部件等；ITER 组织开源发布 IMAS 基础设施与物理模型；联创光 电与中国能建签署战略协议。 核电设备《国家能源局启动"人工智能"能源试 点，中法持续推进和平利用核能领域合作》 2025.12.06 核电设备《中国发布燃烧等离子体国际科学计 划，2025 年我国 ITER 合同金额已超 1.2 亿欧 投资要点： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——可控核聚变行业周报 元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer sector [4]. Core Insights - Recent developments in the AI industry show significant progress in both specialization and terminalization, exemplified by OpenAI's breakthrough with the GPT-5.2 model and Zhipu AI's promotion of mobile AI [2][4]. - The U.S. has conditionally approved the export of Nvidia's H200 chips to China, but this comes with stringent restrictions that may impact supply chain stability [4]. - The commercial aerospace sector is witnessing efficient deployment, highlighted by the successful high-frequency launches of the Long March 12 rocket and the establishment of the "Space Computing Joint Laboratory" [4]. Summary by Sections AI Technology Developments - AI technology has made notable advancements in specialization and terminalization, with OpenAI's GPT-5.2 achieving human expert-level performance in key benchmarks and Zhipu AI's Open-AutoGLM enabling mobile AI capabilities [2][4]. U.S.-China Technology Relations - The U.S. has conditionally relaxed export controls on AI chips to China, allowing Nvidia to sell its H200 chips, but with dual constraints including generational technology locks and a 25% sales commission to the U.S. Treasury [4]. Commercial Aerospace Progress - The Long March 12 rocket successfully launched 16 low-orbit satellites within 32 days, demonstrating high-efficiency deployment capabilities, while the "Space Computing Joint Laboratory" aims to enhance domestic autonomous capabilities [4]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends stocks such as Hand Information, Sunlink Technology, Kingsoft Office, Hehe Information, Hikvision, Newland, Daotong Technology, and Haiguang Information, with a focus on their projected earnings and market performance [5].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in trading activity for key themes, particularly in commercial aerospace, energy independence, AI applications, and domestic consumption, driven by improved market risk appetite and supportive macroeconomic policies [2][3][5]. Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - The upcoming launch of the Long March 12 reusable rocket and the completion of ground tests for the Tianlong 3 rocket are significant milestones, with China's StarNet completing a network of 127 low-orbit satellites, accelerating its deployment [3][20][25]. - The National Space Administration's action plan for commercial aerospace emphasizes the development of new technologies and products, predicting a tenfold increase in satellite launch demand by 2030 compared to 2024 [3][20][25]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on rocket manufacturing, satellite communication, and new technologies such as reusable rockets [21][25]. Group 3: Energy Independence - The central government emphasizes accelerating the construction of a new energy system and expanding green electricity applications, with a target of 25% non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 [5][22][35]. - The share of clean energy in total installed capacity has reached 60%, with 84% of new capacity in the first ten months of 2025 coming from clean sources [22][35][39]. - Investment directions include smart grids, new energy storage solutions, and nuclear fusion energy [22][35]. Group 4: AI Applications - The report notes significant growth in AI applications, with Alibaba's Qianwen app experiencing a 149.03% increase in monthly active users, leading globally [23][41]. - The government aims for over 70% penetration of new-generation intelligent terminals and systems by 2027, with a target of over 90% by 2030 [23][41]. - Investment opportunities are identified in internet applications across various sectors, including finance, gaming, and government services, as well as in data center power equipment [23][41]. Group 5: Domestic Consumption - The central government is focused on boosting domestic consumption through various initiatives, including enhancing the supply of quality goods and services [5][47]. - New consumption scenarios, such as sports events and winter tourism, are emerging, with the ice and snow sports market projected to exceed 187.5 billion yuan in the 2024-2025 season, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [47][48]. - Investment recommendations include sectors benefiting from consumption promotion measures, such as tourism, hotels, and sports equipment [47][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Oriental Education, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance relative to the local market index [14][21]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a dual improvement in performance and valuation, driven by its strong brand influence in various training sectors such as culinary arts, pastry, information technology, and automotive services [2][14]. - Revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to grow by 10.2%, with a gross margin increase to 57.3%, reflecting effective business expansion and cost control [2][14]. - The company operates 234 schools and centers across mainland China and Hong Kong, with a steady increase in training participants [4][14]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2027 are as follows: - 2024: 4,116 million RMB - 2025: 4,585 million RMB (up 11%) - 2026: 5,088 million RMB (up 11%) - 2027: 5,591 million RMB (up 10%) [5][12] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - 2024: 513 million RMB - 2025: 798 million RMB (up 56%) - 2026: 1,004 million RMB (up 26%) - 2027: 1,128 million RMB (up 12%) [5][12] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2024: 0.24 RMB - 2025: 0.36 RMB - 2026: 0.45 RMB - 2027: 0.51 RMB [5][12]. Market Performance - The stock price has fluctuated between 2.43 and 9.05 HKD over the past 52 weeks, with a current market capitalization of 13,808 million HKD [8][12]. - The report suggests a target price of 9.0 RMB, equivalent to approximately 9.9 HKD, based on a 20X PE valuation for 2026 [14].

高速板块领跌，指数至阶段新低 [Table_Authors] 刘玉(分析师) REIT 策略周报 本报告导读： 过去一周 REIT 市场先下后上，REITs 全收益指数一度下行至 1020 点位后回升。 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.14 | | 021-38038263 | | --- | --- | | | liuyu6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523050002 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 转债估值及常规因子表现数据库（251208- 251212） 2025.12.13 超长债上行期：保险买入未放量 2025.12.09 12 月首周大行融出规模显著回升 2025.12.09 降息预期下，美债长端承压会持续多久 2025.12.09 破位还是触底？T、TL 合约分化 20251208 2025.12.08 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 ...

股 票 研 究 可孚医疗引入飞利浦家庭健康监测设备 可孚医疗(301087) 公司调研简报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 孟陆(分析师) | 010-56535972 | menglu@gtht.com | S0880525040073 | | 余文心(分析师) | 021-38676666 | yuwenxin@gtht.com | S0880525040111 | 本报告导读： 我国家用医疗器械领军企业可孚医疗与皇家飞利浦（Royal Philips）正式签署战略合 作协议。双方将围绕多款家庭健康监测设备开展深度合作，让高品质健康科技产品 更广泛地进入我国市场。 投资要点： | | | [Table_Industry] 医药/必需消费 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [Table_Target] 目标价格(元): | 53.84 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 30.48-46.02 | | --- | ...

高频选股因子周报（20251208- 20251212） 高频因子走势分化，多粒度因子显著回撤。AI 增强组合均 大幅度回撤。 本报告导读： 上周（特指 20251208-20251212，下同）高频因子走势分化，多粒度因子显著回撤。 AI 增强组合均大幅度回撤。 投资要点： | | | | [Table_Authors] | 郑雅斌(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-23219395 | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 余浩淼(分析师) | | | 021-23185650 | | | yuhaomiao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040013 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 低频选股因子周报（2025.12.05-2025.12.12） 2025.12.13 绝对收益产品及策略周报（251201-251205） 2025.12.10 上周估值因子表现较好，本年中证 2000 指数增强 策略超额收益为 28.22% 2025.12.10 红利风格择时周报（1201 ...