股 票 研 究 25H1 扣非净利润同比增长 13.17%， 项目建设有序推进 密尔克卫(603713) 公司半年报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘威(分析师) | 0755-82764281 | liuwei7@gtht.com | S0880525040100 | | | 本报告导读： 公司全球化布局全面启动，项目建设为公司贡献增量。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 9,753 | 12,118 | 13,559 | 15,225 | 17,155 | | (+/-)% | -15.7% | 24.3% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 12.7% | | 净利润(归母) | 431 | 565 | 668 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5][19]. Core Views - The company has shown impressive performance in the first half of the year, driven by its new energy and magnetic materials businesses, enhancing its risk resistance and operational resilience [2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 11.936 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.75%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.02 billion yuan, up 58.94% year-on-year [11]. - The target price for the company is set at 23.64 yuan, based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 19.733 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 1.5% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 1.818 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.9% increase [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is expected to be 1.12 yuan [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2023 is projected at 20.2% [4]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for 2023 is 16.37 [4]. Business Segments - **Photovoltaic Business**: In the first half of 2025, the photovoltaic segment generated revenue of 8.054 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.58%, with product shipments reaching 13.4 GW, up over 65% [11]. - **Magnetic Materials**: The magnetic materials segment achieved revenue of 2.371 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with shipments of 107,300 tons [11]. - **Lithium Battery**: The lithium battery segment reported revenue of 1.286 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with shipments exceeding 300 million units, reflecting a 12.25% year-on-year growth [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 27.28 CNY, compared to the current price of 20.33 CNY [5][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a 21% growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2, with significant performance in market expansion, import reforms, and digital payment services, indicating strong future growth potential [2][12]. - The company reported a revenue of 77.1 billion CNY in H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.99%, and a net profit of 16.9 billion CNY, up 16.78% [12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.77 CNY, 1.06 CNY, and 1.27 CNY, with growth rates of 38%, 37%, and 19% respectively [12]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections are as follows: 2023A: 11,300 million CNY, 2024A: 15,737 million CNY, 2025E: 19,662 million CNY, 2026E: 24,116 million CNY, 2027E: 27,497 million CNY, with growth rates decreasing from 48.3% in 2023 to 14.0% in 2027 [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 2,676 million CNY in 2023A to 6,937 million CNY in 2027E, with a significant increase of 142.3% in 2023A [4][13]. - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) forecast, increasing from 15.1% in 2023A to 25.2% in 2027E [4][13]. Business Performance - The company's market operating income for H1 was 23.8 billion CNY, with trade services growing by 43.2% to 5.31 billion CNY [12]. - The CG platform registered 5.1 million purchasing merchants across over 200 countries, generating 2.57 billion CNY in revenue, with a net profit of 1.55 billion CNY, reflecting a 109.7% increase [12]. - The company has made significant progress in its global expansion, with 13 new overseas projects and the opening of a market in Osaka, Japan [12].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that the stock side employs a small-cap growth portfolio combined with a non-timing stock-bond monthly rebalancing strategy, projecting cumulative returns of 5.93% and 11.15% by 2025 [1][4] - As of August 15, 2025, the total market size of fixed income plus funds reached 1,784.66 billion, with 1,177 products, of which 412 achieved historical net value highs last week [2][9] - The report indicates a divergence in performance among various fund types, with median returns for mixed bond type funds being -0.07% for level one, 0.17% for level two, and 0.33% for mixed bond type funds [2][12] Group 2: Asset Allocation and ETF Rotation - The macro environment forecast for Q3 2025 suggests an inflationary trend, with the CSI 300 index, the total wealth index of government bonds, and AU9999 contracts yielding 3.11%, -0.32%, and 1.03% respectively since August [3][4] - Recommended industry ETFs for August 2025 include those focused on artificial intelligence, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, banking, and major consumer sectors, with a weekly return of 4.01% and a cumulative return of 5.81% for the month [3][4] Group 3: Absolute Return Strategy Performance - The macro-timing driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded a return of 0.47% last week, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy returned -0.02% [4][9] - The small-cap growth style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination showed the most significant performance, with a year-to-date return of 11.15% [4][9] - The report notes that the cumulative return for the small-cap growth portfolio, when adjusted for timing strategies, reached 12.81% [4][9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The cement industry in China has experienced a significant increase in clinker production capacity, peaking at 18.3 billion tons by 2016, but has since stabilized around 18 billion tons without significant capacity reduction [11] - Cement demand reached a plateau after peaking in 2014, with a decline expected to continue, dropping from a range of 2.2-2.4 billion tons in 2022 to an estimated 1.68 billion tons by 2025 [11][32] - The price of cement has undergone fluctuations, with a notable increase following the 2008 stimulus, followed by a decline due to oversupply and weak demand in the real estate sector [15] - The profitability of cement companies is expected to be at a low point in 2024, with net profits projected at 11 billion yuan, compared to 8.3 billion yuan in 2015 [16] - The industry is facing challenges from both supply and demand sides, with short-term supply adjustments needed to match declining demand [42] Summary by Sections Supply Side - The cement industry has seen a significant increase in production capacity, with a peak in 2016, but has not undergone substantial capacity reduction since then [11] - Short-term adjustments are necessary to align supply with declining demand, particularly in the context of a rapidly changing market environment [42] Demand Side - Cement demand has entered a decline phase, primarily driven by a downturn in the real estate sector, with expectations of further decreases in 2025 [32] - The report highlights that the construction and real estate sectors are the main contributors to the decline in cement demand [32] Price Trends - Cement prices have experienced a cyclical pattern, with significant increases following government stimulus measures, followed by declines due to oversupply and weak demand [15] - The report indicates that the price fluctuations are closely tied to the balance of supply and demand in the market [15] Profitability - The profitability of cement companies is projected to be low, with net profits expected to rise slightly from 8.3 billion yuan in 2015 to 11 billion yuan in 2024 [16] - The report notes that while the industry faces profitability challenges, cash flow remains relatively stable for many companies [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2][14]. Core Views - The company's main profit contribution in the first half of 2025 came from its civil explosives business, while the lithium segment is expected to recover in the second half due to the ramp-up of self-controlled lithium mines and downstream capacity expansion [3][14]. - The target price for the company is set at 17.00 yuan, reflecting a 20x PE valuation for 2026, considering the expected growth in lithium production and stable demand in the civil explosives sector [14]. Financial Summary - The company achieved total revenue of 34.23 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.0%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.36 billion yuan, up 32.9% year-on-year [14]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 18.86 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year but up 22.7% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 0.53 billion yuan, down 38.9% year-on-year and 35.4% quarter-on-quarter [14]. - The lithium business faced challenges due to a significant drop in lithium prices, with the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide falling by 26.97% year-on-year to 67,401 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025 [14]. Business Segments - The civil explosives segment reported revenue of 14.65 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 3.7% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.53 billion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year [14]. - The company is expected to see improvements in its lithium business in the second half of 2025 as self-controlled mines ramp up production and the price gap in refining improves [14]. - The civil explosives business has a diversified target market, with market shares of 5% and 11% for industrial explosives and electronic detonators, respectively, and a significant presence in the Sichuan region [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 8.92 CNY, while the current price is 5.91 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - The company reported its 2025 mid-year results, which met expectations. The significant recovery in cement profitability is attributed to peak pricing and a decline in coal prices. Future demand for cement is expected to rise with the commencement of major infrastructure projects in the western region [2][13]. - The company achieved a revenue of 35.98 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company improved to a loss of 0.92 billion CNY, showing a reduction in losses [13]. - The company’s cement and clinker sales volume for the first half of 2025 was 90.52 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 14.6%, with the second quarter sales volume at 52.82 million tons, down 14.09% year-on-year [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 107.38 billion CNY, with projections of 86.99 billion CNY for 2024 and 84.85 billion CNY for 2025, indicating a decline of 19.0% in 2023 and a further decrease of 2.5% in 2025 [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.965 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected recovery to 1.969 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a significant turnaround from a loss of 0.598 billion CNY in 2024 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.28 CNY for 2025, increasing to 0.35 CNY in 2026 and 0.41 CNY in 2027 [4][13]. Industry Context - The cement industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability due to peak pricing strategies and lower coal costs, which have improved gross margins. The industry is also benefiting from increased infrastructure spending in the western regions of China [13]. - The company is positioned well within the industry, executing peak production cuts more effectively than its peers, which has helped stabilize its performance amid declining sales volumes [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][10]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high gross margin in Q2 2025, with a significant reduction in net loss compared to previous periods. The acceleration of product iterations and the launch of new models with enhanced intelligence features support the "Accumulate" rating [2][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 30.676 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 14%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 90.863 billion RMB, reflecting a 122% increase. The gross profit is forecasted to be 14.992 billion RMB in 2025, with a net loss of 1 billion RMB [4][12]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 reached 17.3%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The automotive sales gross margin was 14.3%, up 8.0 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Delivery and Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, the company delivered 103,000 vehicles, marking a historical high and a year-on-year increase of 242%. The average revenue per vehicle was 164,000 RMB, up 1,100 RMB from the previous quarter [10]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is actively enhancing its product lineup, with several new models launched in 2025, including the G6, G9, and Mona M03 Max. The introduction of the "dual-energy" vehicle cycle is expected to drive sales growth [10][12]. - A partnership with Volkswagen has been expanded to include collaboration on fuel and plug-in hybrid vehicle platforms, which is anticipated to boost service revenue [10]. Future Outlook - For Q3 2025, the company expects vehicle deliveries to range between 113,000 and 118,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 143% to 154%. Total revenue is projected to reach between 19.6 billion and 21 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 94% to 108% [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The report maintains a target price of 31.95 CNY, with the current price at 26.86 CNY, indicating a potential upside [5] - The company has signed strategic cooperation agreements with Guangdong Unicom and Shenzhen Urban Transport to explore green intelligent computing center-related businesses [2][11] - The report emphasizes the rapid advancement of AIDC collaborative business, showcasing the company's strong execution capabilities [11] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 12,541 million CNY - 2024A: 11,886 million CNY - 2025E: 12,040 million CNY - 2026E: 12,057 million CNY - 2027E: 12,448 million CNY - The revenue shows a decline of 2.6% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2024, followed by a slight recovery in subsequent years [4][12] - Net profit (attributable to the parent company) is projected as follows: - 2023A: 1,430 million CNY - 2024A: 1,664 million CNY - 2025E: 1,735 million CNY - 2026E: 1,806 million CNY - 2027E: 1,882 million CNY - This indicates a growth of 25.2% in 2023 and 16.4% in 2024 [4][12] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023A: 1.75 CNY - 2024A: 2.04 CNY - 2025E: 2.13 CNY - 2026E: 2.21 CNY - 2027E: 2.31 CNY [4][12] Market Data - The company has a total market capitalization of 21,900 million CNY and a total share capital of 815 million shares [6] - The stock has traded within a 52-week price range of 18.75 CNY to 27.87 CNY [6] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 15.32, projected to decrease to 11.63 by 2027 [4][12] Strategic Partnerships - The collaboration with Guangdong Unicom and Shenzhen Urban Transport aims to leverage the company's green energy advantages to provide competitive green electricity and waste heat steam, reducing energy costs for computing centers [11] - The partnership is expected to enhance the profitability of the company's waste incineration projects and improve cash flow [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 28.54 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 1.047 billion CNY and 228 million CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 4.49% and 66.49% [13]. - The company's investment business net income increased by 69.72% to 213 million CNY, contributing 73.54% to the adjusted revenue growth [13]. - The asset management business saw a significant increase in fee income, up 278.80% to 42 million CNY, driven by growth in asset management scale [13]. - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of the futures market under the internationalization of the RMB, leveraging its comprehensive service capabilities in risk management and asset management [13]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 926 million CNY in 2023 to 1.913 billion CNY by 2027, with a peak in 2024 at 1.810 billion CNY [4][14]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 244 million CNY in 2023 to 412 million CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 56.9% in 2024 [4][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.55 CNY in 2023 to 0.93 CNY in 2027 [4][14]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain strong, peaking at 13.0% in 2024 before gradually declining to 10.7% by 2027 [4][14].