新游储备丰富，AI 和出海赋能远期成长 中旭未来(9890) 中旭未来首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 陈筱(分析师) | 021-38675863 | chenxiao@gtht.com | S0880515040003 | | 陈星光(分析师) | 021-23219104 | chenxingguang@gtht.com | S0880525040043 | | 杨昊(分析师) | 021-38032025 | yanghao4@gtht.com | S0880524020001 | 本报告导读： 2025 年公司将迎来新产品周期，叠加 AI 在传奇类游戏买量素材和投放算法效率的 优化，公司主营业绩有望大幅提升。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 6,514.59 | 5,580.11 | 5,863.55 ...

分红提升再显龙头实力，千亿资产收购打开国改新篇 中国神华(601088) 中国神华 2025 年半年报业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 王楠瑀(分析师) | 021-38032030 | wangnanyu@gtht.com | S0880525070029 | 本报告导读： 公司为煤炭板块红利龙头，未来依然持续有产能增量。我们认为煤炭底部就在 2025H1，后续供需好转步入上升轨道，神华作为煤炭行业红利龙头，投资价值持续。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 343,074 | 338,375 | 319,693 | 319,368 | 329,307 | | (+ ...

| [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 蔡雯娟(分析师) | 021-38031654 | caiwenjuan@gtht.com | S0880521050002 | | 谢丛睿(分析师) | 021-38038437 | xiecongrui@gtht.com | S0880523090004 | | 李汉颖(分析师) | 010-83939833 | lihanying@gtht.com | S0880524110001 | 本报告导读： 龙头彰显稳健经营能力 美的集团(000333) ——美的集团 25H1 财报点评 公司发布 2025H1 财报，Q2 在行业竞争加剧，国补效力边际减弱的背景下收入、业 绩仍保持双位数增长，彰显龙头稳健经营能力。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 373,710 | ...

股 票 研 究 2025H1 经营净现金流净流出减少，工业厂房、能源工程、市政工程新签 增速快。(1)2025H1 经营净现金流-828.3 亿元(2024 年同期-1087.7 亿元)， 其中 Q1/Q2 为-958.5/130.2 亿元(2024Q1-Q4 为-966.0/-121.7/317.6/927.8 亿元)。(2)2025H1 新签 25010 亿元同增 0.9%，其中房建 14964 亿元同比 下降 2.3%，基建 8237 亿元同比增长 10%，地产合约销售额 1745 亿元同 比下降 8.9%。从细分结构来看，房建中工业厂房新签合同额 4522 亿元 同比增长 16.2%，科教文卫体设施新签合同额 2454 亿元，其中教育设施 新签合同额 1023 亿元，同比增长 13.5%；基建中能源工程新签合同额 3501 亿元同比增长 34.2%，市政工程新签合同额 1580 亿元增长 43.8%。 中国建筑股息率 4.88%估值底部，市场化建筑龙头被低估。(1)中国建筑 是全球最大的投资建设集团之一，被纳入中证 50、上证 50、富时中国 A50、MSCI 中国 A50 互联互通指数。(2)202 ...

股票研究/[Table_Date] 2025.09.01 农业机器人迎"AI"机遇，金火机床项目开工 [Table_Industry] 机械制造业 ——机械行业周报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 黄龙(分析师) | 021-38031028 | huanglong@gtht.com | S0880525070027 | 本报告导读： 上周（2025/8/25-2025/8/29）机械设备指数涨跌幅为+1.15%。国务院发"AI+"意 见助农业机器人发展；金火科技高端机床及自动化产线项目动工；通用技术国测时 栅与西门子就机床合作达共识。 行 投资要点： 力边界持续突破》2025.08.24 机械制造业《具身智能重要方案发布，商业低轨 卫星密集升空》2025.08.10 机械制造业《上海助推具身智能产业集群发展， 多款机器人产品亮相 2025 世界机器人大会》 2025.08.1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 14.64 CNY [4][11]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to declining market demand, and it is currently experiencing the most significant year-on-year pressure. However, it is identified as a growth stock in the coking coal sector, with potential industry growth expected in 2025-2026 [2][11]. - The company has shown signs of recovery in coal production and sales, with a notable increase in output in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, indicating a potential improvement in performance in Q3 2025 [11]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 20.682 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 44.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.032 billion CNY, down 64.85% year-on-year [11]. - The average selling price of coking coal in Q2 2025 was 747 CNY/ton, a decrease of 364 CNY/ton year-on-year, while the cost per ton decreased to 425 CNY/ton, showing effective cost control [11]. - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in performance in Q3 2025 due to increased sales volume and price adjustments [11]. Production and Sales Insights - In H1 2025, the company produced 8.908 million tons of commodity coal, a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%, with sales of 6.476 million tons, down 19.38% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a production increase to 4.6 million tons, up from 4.3 million tons in Q1 2025 [11]. - The company’s coking business remained stable, with H1 2025 production of 1.7 million tons and sales of 1.68 million tons, while the average selling price dropped by 33% year-on-year [11]. Future Growth Potential - The company is positioned as a growth stock in the coking coal sector, with expected industry increments in 2025-2026. New projects, including a DMC project and a methanol utilization project, are set to contribute to future production capacity [11][12].

Group 1: Macro Research - The actual tariff collection intensity in the US in the first half of 2025 was lower than expected, leading to a moderate rise in inflation. The average import tax rate is expected to increase further in the second half of the year, which may accelerate the pace of price increases by companies [4][5][7] - If the average import tax rate rises by 10% within the year, inflation could push the PCE year-on-year growth to 3.1% and core PCE to 3.4% under stable demand conditions [4][5] Group 2: Strategy Research - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue rising, driven by accelerated transformation, declining risk-free returns, and capital market reforms. The market is not expected to be limited to small-cap stocks, with mid-cap and low-priced blue-chip stocks likely to become significant contributors to the next phase of market growth [5][7][8] - The market's style conflict is not between value and growth, but rather between monopolistic-stable assets and transformative-growth assets, indicating a broader improvement in the investment logic in China [8][9] Group 3: Industry Research - Household and Personal Care - In the first half of 2025, the beauty and personal care sector saw revenue and net profit growth of 7.2% and 1.9% respectively, with personal care outperforming cosmetics and medical aesthetics [16][17] - The personal care segment experienced a revenue increase of 30.2% and a net profit increase of 6.9% in the first half of 2025, driven by product innovation and new channel development [17] - The cosmetics segment faced challenges with profit growth lagging behind revenue growth due to increased competition for online traffic and rising promotional costs [17] - The medical aesthetics segment showed stable growth in collagen materials, with leading companies maintaining a competitive edge [17] Group 4: Fund Holdings - The overall holdings in the beauty and personal care sector increased in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting a long-term logic benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and the emergence of high-growth stocks [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 18.00 CNY, while the current price is 13.82 CNY [7]. Core Insights - The company's classic games "Age of Origins" and "War and Order" have entered a mature phase, leading to a decline in revenue. However, new games "Stellar Sanctuary" and "Next Agers" have been launched, and their future performance is promising [2][13]. - The company is expected to maintain stable revenue from its long-standing games, while new titles are in the early growth stage and are anticipated to contribute positively in the future [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5,962 million CNY in 2023 to 9,139 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.8% [4][14]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 887 million CNY in 2023 to 1,668 million CNY in 2027, with a peak in 2024 at 1,428 million CNY [4][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.45 CNY in 2023, rising to 0.85 CNY by 2027 [4][14]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of 8.58 CNY to 15.88 CNY, with a total market capitalization of 27,186 million CNY [8]. - The stock has shown an absolute increase of 62% over the past 12 months [12]. Product Development - The company has launched a new AI product, avavox, aimed at enhancing work efficiency across various business functions [13]. - The new games "Stellar Sanctuary" and "Next Agers" have received approval for domestic release and are expected to accelerate their launch pace [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 22.49 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company has achieved revenue and profit growth, driven by a diversified product matrix and structural transformation that enhances gross margin [2][13]. - The company is focusing on multi-channel development, with significant progress in both online and offline retail, and has established over 5,000 proprietary brand stores [13]. - The net profit margin and gross margin have increased, with Q2 2025 net profit margin at 8.53%, up by 1.27 percentage points year-on-year, and gross margin at 38.42%, up by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 8,678 million CNY in 2023 to 10,342 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.8% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 429 million CNY in 2023 to 534 million CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 80.5% in 2023 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.15 CNY in 2023 to 1.44 CNY in 2027 [4]. Business Development - The company is expanding its proprietary brand retail business through a dual-channel approach, enhancing its presence in both physical stores and online platforms [13]. - Collaborations with major retail partners such as Red Star Macalline and Juran Home have been established to strengthen market positioning [13]. - The company is also exploring international markets by targeting hotel groups and apartments, indicating a strategy for brand globalization [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 56.57 CNY [4][10]. Core Insights - The company focuses on big product lines and streamlining its main brand SKU strategy to drive continuous improvement in gross margin. However, the significant decline in offline channels in 1H25 has impacted main brand growth. There are expectations for new products to expand the consumer base and improve operational efficiency on platforms like Douyin [2][10]. - In 1H25, the company reported total revenue of 2.372 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 15.43%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 247 million CNY, down 49.0% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 76.0%, up 3.42 percentage points, attributed to a focus on big products and reduced promotions [10][11]. - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 1.12 CNY and 1.49 CNY, respectively, reflecting the impact of short-term offline channel adjustments and product line streamlining [10][11]. Financial Summary - For 2023A, the total revenue is projected at 5.522 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 757 million CNY, down 28.0% [3][11]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 75.3% in 2025E, with a net profit margin of 8.6% [11]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 8.456 billion CNY by 2025E, with total liabilities of 1.936 billion CNY [11]. Market Performance - The stock has a 52-week price range of 39.34 CNY to 70.30 CNY, with a total market capitalization of 19.871 billion CNY [5][10]. - The stock has shown an absolute increase of 14% over the past 12 months, although it has underperformed relative to the index by 41% [9][10].