特许经营权领跌，指数加速下探 [Table_Authors] 刘玉(分析师) REIT 策略周报 本报告导读： 当前市场普跌下也蕴含着配置机会，可关注超跌优质项目的反弹机会。 债 券 研 究 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.21 | | 021-38038263 | | --- | --- | | | liuyu6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523050002 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 转债估值及常规因子表现数据库（251215- 251219） 2025.12.20 年内地方债发行金额突破 10 万亿 2025.12.17 12 月第二周大行资金融出回升明显 2025.12.16 高速板块领跌，指数至阶段新低 2025.12.14 理解重要会议后的债市波动：三个层次的分析 2025.12.14 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 市 场 策 略 ...

量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20251221） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 市场短期震荡格局较难被打破 本报告导读： 从技术面来看，情绪模型信号依旧处于弱势震荡状态；与此同时，均线强弱指数同 样处于震荡区间。因此，我们认为，市场短期震荡格局较难被打破。 投资要点： 金 融 工 程 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 | [Table_Summary] 下周（20251222-20251226，后文同）市场观点：市场短期震荡格局 | | --- | | 较难被打破。从量化指标上看，基于沪深 300 指数的流动性冲击指 | | 标周五为 0.41，低于前一周（0.51），意味着当前市场的流动性高于 | | 过去一年平均水平 倍标准差。上证 期权成交量的 0.41 50ETF PUT | | CALL 比率震荡下降，周五为 0.83，低于前一周（1.08），投资者对 | | 上证 50ETF 短期走势谨慎程度下降。上证综指和 Wind 全 A 五日平 | | 均换手率分别为 1.05%和 1.60%，处于 年以来的 68.85%和 2005 | | 73.75%分位点，交易活跃度有所下降。从宏观因子 ...

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - Southeast Asia ETF increased by 1.59%, outperforming China, India, the US, Japan, and Latin America, but underperforming Africa and the UK[6] - Southeast Asia Technology ETF decreased by 4.76%, lagging behind the overall Southeast Asia ETF by 6.36 percentage points[6] Group 2: Country-Specific ETF Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF fell by 0.42%, underperforming by 2.02 percentage points, with stable market conditions but structural consumption pressures[7] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF declined by 0.81%, underperforming by 2.40 percentage points, due to cautious market sentiment from divided business confidence[7] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF rose by 0.44%, underperforming by 1.16 percentage points, amid limited effects of monetary easing and structural growth challenges[7] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF increased by 3.73%, outperforming by 2.14 percentage points, supported by currency appreciation and external capital inflows[7] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF dropped by 1.00%, underperforming by 2.59 percentage points, with strong foreign capital inflows contrasted by debt risk concerns[7] Group 3: Key Economic Indicators - Indonesia's economic growth forecast for 2025-2026 was raised to 5% by the World Bank, driven by strong exports and investment growth[16] - Singapore's GDP growth forecast for 2025 was adjusted down to a range of 1%-3%, reflecting weakened short-term economic momentum[19] - Thailand's GDP growth forecast for 2026 was lowered to 1.5%, with inflation expected to return to target only by 2027[21] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include macroeconomic downturns and geopolitical uncertainties, which could impact market performance across the region[34]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.21 政策催化，消费转变可期 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 扩内需逐步被提升至战略地位，消费板块有望触底反弹。白酒板块五粮液 1218 定 调 2026 年高质量动销+份额提升，大众品板块乳制品产业链周期反转可期。 投资要点： ——食品饮料行业周报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | | 徐洋(分析师) | 021-38032032 | xuyang6@gtht.com | S0880520120008 | [Table_Report] | | 李美仪(分析师) | 021-38038667 | limeiyi@gtht.com ...

上周（特指 20251215-20251219，下同）高频因子走势分化持续，多粒度因子表现反 弹。AI 增强组合均一定程度反弹。 投资要点： | | | | [Table_Authors] | 郑雅斌(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-23219395 | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 余浩淼(分析师) | | | 021-23185650 | | | yuhaomiao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040013 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 黄金继续上涨，国内资产 BL 策略 2 本周上涨 0.1% 2025.12.20 绝对收益产品及策略周报（251208-251212） 2025.12.18 大额买入与资金流向跟踪（20251208-20251212） 2025.12.16 上周大市值风格占优，分析师、盈利因子表现较 好 2025.12.16 风格 Smart beta 组合跟踪周报（2025.12.08- 2025.12.12） 2025.12.15 证 ...

股 票 研 究 11 月收支表：债券投资增长提速，中小银行面临存款流失 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 银行周报（2025/12/15-2025/12/19） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 11 月收支表：负债端，中小银行居民存款搬家趋势或仍在延续，大型银行金融债券 同比多增，或源于资本补充需要；资产端，房地产销售端平淡，大型银行中长期贷 款明显少增，中小银行短期贷款少增幅度更大，或出于风险考量，主动放缓或压降 居民短期消费贷款，而大型银行及中小银行债券投资增长均有提速。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 负债端：大型银行金融债券同比多增，中小银行存款同比少增 1）个人存款：同比少增 1065 亿元，其中活期储蓄 ...

11 月美国 CPI 增速明显不及市场预期，政府关门导致的统计数据失真或一定程度上 使得通胀增速被低估，数据可靠性和指示意义下降。短期内美国通胀压力或仍偏温 和，不会成为美联储降息的掣肘。后续需主要关注美国就业市场走向以及新任美联 储主席表态。 投资要点： | | 021-23185641 | | --- | --- | | | wangyuqing@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040119 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 广义财政仍需加力 2025.12.18 美国就业：延续放缓 2025.12.17 M1 增速：能否企稳 2025.12.13 稳中求进，修炼内功 2025.12.11 核心 CPI 同比维持高位 2025.12.10 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.19 美国通胀下行：数据质量或有干扰 [Table_Authors] 王宇晴(分析师) 2025 年 11 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.19 行业监管趋严，不合规产能有望加速出清 [Table_Industry] 耐用消费品 电子烟行业政策跟踪 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 毛宇翔(分析师) | 021-38038672 | maoyuxiang@gtht.com | S0880524080013 | 本报告导读： 国内海外监管共振助力行业出清。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 耐用消费品《2026 年有望延续产品大年，国内供 应链受益》2025.12.15 耐用消费品《英美烟草：Glo Hilo 反馈亮眼，新 型烟草加速扩张》2025.12.12 耐用消费品《业绩分化加速，龙头韧性凸显》 2025.11.03 耐用消费品《家具板块：底部确立，后势可期》 2025.09.09 耐用消费品《景气度分化，关注细分赛道投资机 会》2025.09 ...

目 录 每日报告精选（2025-12-18 09:00——2025-12-19 15:00） ......................................................................2 |  | 行业跟踪报告：计算机《GPT-5.2 系列发布：重新定义 AI 生产力，驱动 AI 从模型竞争转向场景落地》2025-12-18 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2 | |  | 行业专题研究：传播文化业《情绪消费风起，IP 趣玩行业快速增长》2025-12-18 | 2 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：机械行业《液氩延续上涨趋势；杭氧中标 BEST 低温分配阀箱项目》2025-12-18 | 3 | |  | 公司季报点评：建霖家居（603408）《营收保持稳健，全球制造布局加速》2025-12-19 | 4 | |  | 海外报告：中信金融资产（2799）《拨云见日，双轮启航》2025-12-19 | 5 | |  | 公司深度报告：东鹏饮料（605499）《效率为王，平台型饮料巨头呼之欲出》2025-12-19 | 5 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for CITIC Financial Assets [6]. Core Views - The company has established a new business pattern focusing on non-performing asset management and long-term equity investment, with the latter becoming a new stabilizing force for performance [2]. - The report highlights the ongoing transformation in non-performing asset management and the strategic shift towards long-term equity investments as a counter-cyclical measure [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach RMB 62,183.98 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 142.8% in 2024, followed by a decline of 11.9% in 2025 [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly, reaching RMB 9,618.37 million in 2025, reflecting a growth of 444.6% from the previous year [4]. - The report provides a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 7.42 for 2025 and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.63 for the same year [4]. Business Analysis - The company is one of the four major Asset Management Companies (AMCs) in China, with a focus on non-performing asset management as its core business [31]. - The report indicates that the company is undergoing structural adjustments in its non-performing asset management, with a cautious approach to risk recognition [57]. - Long-term equity investments are highlighted as a new stabilizing factor, providing steady returns and long-term value [10][57]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast predicts a net profit growth of 7.4% in 2025, 11.0% in 2026, and 8.6% in 2027, reaching RMB 12,451.52 million by 2027 [10]. - The report sets a target price of HKD 1.16 based on a 2x PB valuation for 2025 [10].