策略研究 / 2025.06.16 褪色的霸权:美元走弱下的资产配置启示 -- 1970年以来七轮美元趋势走弱下的资产行情复盘 登记编与 本报告导读: 货币政策错位叠加美元外循环受阻,美元贬值可能性正在增大。本文回顾了 1970年 以来历次美元走弱下的资产行情,建议关注汇市、商品以及非美权益投资机会。 投资要点: 1970年以来,美元指数七轮大幅贬值回顾。1)1971.01-1973.07:布 雷顿森林体系解体引发美元信用危机,大宗商品最为受益,权益资 产表现亚洲优于欧洲;2)1976.06-1980.01:联储决策失误引发恶性 通胀,市场担忧美国滞涨风险与联储能力,高通胀环境下大宗商品 表现最优:3)1985.02-1987.12:广场协议下的美元主动贬值,全球 经济共振复苏,工业金属优于贵金属,日本股市领跑全球;4) 1989.06-1992.09:美国经济衰退叠加两德合并,美外利差收窄致使 美元走弱,衰退与高利率环境下商品与权益表现较为平淡;5) 1994.02-1995.04:联储意外加息压制经济预期,非美经济体强劲复 策略去 苏削弱美元优势,商品表现更优;6)2002.01-2008.04:美国"双 ...

低空经济系列(七):飞行培训行业,卖方主导向买方市场演进 产业研究中心 | 摘要: | CS | 徐淋(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 本报告导读:低空市场蓬勃发展,有人与无人机百花齐放,飞行培训作为另类"基 | | 021-38676666 | | 础设施",重要性凸显;但无论是通航还是无人机培训市场,都存在供需失衡风险。 | 登记编号 | S0880523090005 | | ■ 低空飞行员的执照要求:通航执照严于无人机执照。 | | | | V 通航飞行执照的特点在于,商业化程度越高、飞机越复杂,飞行经历要求越 | | | | 高。CAAC以 61部为纲领,构建了涵盖私用、商用、航线运输及运动驾驶员 | 3 | 周天乐(分析师) | | 执照的四级管理体系。 | 8 | 021-38676666 | | V 无人机飞行执照的特点在于,"微型豁免、轻型简化、中大型严格"的分层管 | 登记编号 | S0880520010003 | | 理架构。2018年前无人机执照由 AOPA 等行业协会发放;此后民航局逐步建 | | | | 立以 CAAC 执照为核心的统一认证体系,行业协会转向 ...

融资资金流入扩大,外资流入中国资产 -- 投资者微观行为洞察手册 · 6月第2 期 本报告导读: 本期市场交易热度持续抬升,资金行为分化。外资转为流入,融资资金流入规模扩 大,而 ETF 资金流出,偏股基金新发行规模下降。此外南下资金流入边际抬升。 投资要点: 市场定价状态:市场整体交易热度大幅上升,行业轮动强度下降。 1)市场情绪(上升):本期国泰海通资金流入强度指数整体持续下 降,市场交易热度大幅上升,全 A日均成交额从 1.2 万亿升至 1.4 万亿,上证指数换手率分位数抬升至 82%,科创板换手率分位数抬 升至 52%。日均涨停家数下降至 66家,最大连板数为 7个,封板率 策略研究 / 2025.06.16 方奕(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880520120005 郭胤含(分析师) 021-38676666 管记编与 S0880524100001 田开轩(分析师) 021-38676666 分汇编号 S0880524080006 维持 71%,龙虎榜上榜家教降至 33家。2）赚钱效应(下降):本 期个股收涨比例下降至 34%,全 A 个股周度收益中位数下降至- 1.3%;3) ...

021-38676666 跨季扰动可控，久期行情渐显 [Table_Authors] 张紫睿(分析师) 本报告导读： 登记编号 S0880525040068 理财季末回表是确定性趋势，但考虑到目前信用债供需结构仍有支撑、跨季前后资 金面宽松预期，整体信用债回调压力或较小，跨季后信用债配置需求或快速修复， 中长端利差仍有压降空间。 投资要点： 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 究 专 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.16 [Table_Summary] 银行理财规模呈现明显的季末回落、季初回升特征，这与银行季末 考核压力密切相关，同时对信用利差产生一定扰动。季末时，理财 产品需将部分资产回表以满足存款等监管指标，导致理财规模下降， 信用债配置需求阶段性减弱，可能引发短期抛售压力。我们观察历 史季末理财规模变化和信用利差走势可以发现，季末两周的信用利 差上行概率较大，跨季后伴随理财配置力量回升，信用债配置需求 明显增加，带动信用利差有所压降。 二季度理财对信用债净买入规模并不突出，或与平滑估值整改有 关。4、5 月理财对信用债净买入规模分别为 ...

| | | | | | 股票研究 | /[Table_Date] | 2025.06.15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机周观点第 7 | 期：海内外 | AI | 模型持 | | | [Table_Industry] | 计算机 | | | 续迭代加降价，AI | | 应用爆发加速到来 | | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | | | 增持 | | [table_Authors] 杨林(分析师) | 杨昊翊(分析师) | 魏宗(分析师) | | | | | | | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | | | | 本报告导读： 海内外的 AI 发展仍然在稳步推进，大模型的技术升级与降价在同时进行，AI 正在 越来越普惠，AI 应用的爆发正在加速到来。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 登记编号 S0880525040027 S0880525040126 S ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.13 重大项目接续落地，港股 IPO 同比增逾 7 成 投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Industry] [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——券商投行业务月报（2025 年 5 月） | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦(分析师) | 吴浩东(分析师) | 肖尧(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880515050001 | S0880524070001 | S0880525040115 | 本报告导读： A 股股权融资节奏边际上有所改善，港股持续活跃、同比提振显著，推荐企业客户 资源、专业服务能力以及跨境服务能力更具优势的头部券商。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 月 报 数据来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 注：核心债券=公司债+企 业债+可转债 数据来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 数据来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 数据来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 注：口径为当月已披露的 重大重组事件 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of 56.60 CNY, indicating optimism about the company's performance as a leader in educational enterprise reform and its continuous earnings growth [3][10]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in laser technology and has benefited from educational enterprise reforms, enhancing its operational vitality. It has a diversified business model encompassing communication, laser, sensing, and anti-counterfeiting applications [10][25]. - The company is expected to experience significant revenue growth driven by AI and the increasing demand for optical modules, particularly as a core supplier to major clients like Huawei [10][14]. Financial Summary - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 44.564 billion CNY, with a total share capital of 1,006 million shares [4]. - Revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 10,310 million CNY, 11,709 million CNY, 16,028 million CNY, 23,082 million CNY, and 27,933 million CNY respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 36.9% from 2024 to 2025 [9][19]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,007 million CNY in 2023A, increasing to 3,015 million CNY by 2027E, with a notable growth rate of 56.9% from 2024 to 2025 [9][19]. Business Segments - The laser processing equipment and intelligent manufacturing line is projected to generate 34.92 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.45% [14][19]. - The optical device segment is expected to achieve 39.75 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, marking a 27.79% increase, driven by advancements in AIGC applications [16][19]. - The sensitive components segment is anticipated to generate 36.68 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, reflecting a 12.93% growth, supported by strong demand in the automotive and consumer electronics sectors [17][19]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs both PE and PB valuation methods, concluding with a target price of 56.60 CNY based on a 5x PB valuation for 2025 [20][22]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is projected at 1.90 CNY, with a corresponding PE ratio of 35x, leading to a target price of 66.67 CNY based on PE valuation [21][22]. Historical Performance - The company has shown a consistent revenue growth trajectory, with a CAGR of 17.43% from 2003 to 2024, despite experiencing declines in 2012 and 2023 [33]. - The gross profit margin has improved significantly since the educational reform in 2021, with a projected gross margin of 21.55% for 2024 [39]. Strategic Positioning - The company has established itself as a key player in the laser technology sector, leveraging its roots in higher education and extensive R&D capabilities to drive innovation and market competitiveness [25][26]. - The completion of the educational enterprise reform in 2021 has positioned the company for strategic growth and expansion in both domestic and international markets [25][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][7]. Core Insights - The core OTA platform's revenue growth has improved sequentially, with a focus on enhancing marketing efficiency and exploring incremental business opportunities [3][7]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.377 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.22%, with core OTA revenue at 3.792 billion RMB, up 18.39% year-on-year [7]. - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 788 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.13%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 18.0%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.341 billion RMB, 19.794 billion RMB, 22.456 billion RMB, and 25.647 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 49.12%, 14.15%, 13.45%, and 14.21% [6][9]. - The adjusted net profit for the same years is forecasted to be 1.974 billion RMB, 2.709 billion RMB, 3.294 billion RMB, and 3.891 billion RMB, with growth rates of 26.66%, 18.88%, 16.17%, and 14.42% respectively [6][9]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 is expected to be 4.050 billion RMB, 4.667 billion RMB, 5.202 billion RMB, and 5.749 billion RMB, with corresponding EBITDA margins of 23.4%, 23.6%, 23.2%, and 22.4% [6][9]. Business Performance - The core OTA business's revenue growth has accelerated sequentially, with Q1 2025 showing a significant improvement compared to Q4 2024 [7]. - The company has focused on improving profit margins through refined operations, achieving a gross margin of 68.8%, a sales expense ratio of 33.2%, and a management expense ratio of 7.0% [7]. - The operating profit for the core OTA segment was 1.1 billion RMB, up 51.89% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 29%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points year-on-year [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a potential return exceeding 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [3][9]. Core Insights - Tesla is positioned as a global leader in the commercialization of Robotaxi and humanoid robot industries, with the upcoming public trial of Robotaxi expected to significantly enhance the performance of the Tesla supply chain [2][3]. - The launch of Robotaxi is seen as a pivotal moment for the industry, transitioning from concept to reality, with substantial performance growth anticipated for related sectors [3]. - Key companies in the supply chain that are recommended for investment include Top Group, Zhaomin Technology, Junsheng Electronics, and Xinquan Co., which are expected to benefit from the growth of Robotaxi and humanoid robots [3]. Summary by Sections Tesla Robotaxi Launch - Elon Musk announced the tentative public trial date for Tesla's Robotaxi service as June 22, with an initial rollout of approximately 10 vehicles, scaling up to thousands over time [2][3]. - The expansion of Robotaxi services to cities like San Francisco is planned, although specific timelines have not been disclosed [3]. Management Changes - The head of Tesla's Optimus robot project has announced his departure, with the autonomous driving head taking over the project [3]. Industry Collaborations - UBTECH and Foxconn are collaborating in the humanoid robot sector, focusing on deep applications in smart manufacturing and talent development [3]. - This partnership aims to create a closed-loop ecosystem for technology research, scenario validation, talent cultivation, and industrial application [3]. Financial Projections - Financial estimates for key companies include: - Top Group: EPS forecast of 1.73 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 28 [4]. - Zhaomin Technology: EPS forecast of 0.59 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 79 [4]. - Junsheng Electronics: EPS forecast of 0.68 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 26 [4]. - Xinquan Co.: EPS forecast of 2.00 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 23 [4].

Inflation Data - In May 2025, the US CPI year-on-year growth was 2.4%, slightly up from 2.3% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[5] - The core CPI remained at 2.8%, below the market expectation of 2.9%[6] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.1%, down from 0.2% in April, and below the expected 0.2%[6] Core Components - Energy prices significantly impacted the CPI, with energy inflation decreasing by 1.0% month-on-month, dragging down the CPI by 0.1 percentage points[7] - Core goods inflation showed limited upward pressure, with notable increases in specific items like furniture, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals, while clothing and new cars saw declines[9] - Core services inflation also weakened, particularly in rent and medical services, with rent decreasing by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%[9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the short term due to stable employment and significant inflation uncertainties[3] - Market expectations indicate potential rate cuts in September and December, with a forecasted reduction of 50 basis points[19] Tariff Impact - The report highlights a lag in the transmission of tariffs to inflation, with companies remaining cautious in price increases amid uncertain consumer and tariff outlooks[3] - The anticipated impact of tariffs on core goods may become evident as inventory levels decrease and companies adjust pricing strategies[16] Future Considerations - There is a need to monitor inflationary pressures, particularly in food prices and energy costs, which may rise in the coming months[16] - The Cleveland Fed estimates that the CPI year-on-year growth could rise to approximately 2.7% in June 2025[16]