股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.09 家具板块：底部确立，后势可期 [Table_Industry] 耐用消费品 家具板块专题研究报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 吕科佳(分析师) | 021-23185623 | lvkejia@gtht.com | S0880525040069 | 本报告导读： 当前家具龙头企业估值处于历史区间底部，或受益于地产数据及政策，边际转好。 家具企业业绩仍有支撑。同时红利属性愈发突出。 投资要点： 耐用消费品《景气度分化，关注细分赛道投资机 会》2025.09.03 耐用消费品《新型烟草行业增长提速，新品市场 表现可期》2025.08.05 耐用消费品《AI 眼镜新品百花齐放，产品加速破 圈》2025.08.01 耐用消费品《菲莫国际海外 IQOS 爆款大单品复 盘》2025.07.08 耐用消费品《小米 AI 眼镜产品力 ...

| [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 张觉尹(分析师) | 021-23185705 | zhangjueyin@gtht.com | S0880525040057 | | 潘若婵(研究助理) | 021-23154145 | panruochan@gtht.com | S0880125042232 | 8 月乘用车销量同环比提升，关注新品放量推动销量增长 [Table_Industry] 汽车 ——乘用车行业月报 [Table_Report] 相关报告 本报告导读： 8 月中国乘用车市场批发销量 240.9 万辆，同比+12%，环比+8%。预计 9 月乘用车 销量同环比增长。维持行业"增持"评级。 投资要点： 汽车《优必选获新订单，特斯拉发布第四篇章》 2025.09.08 汽车《经销商出海取得成效》2025.08.31 汽车《乘用车零售价格回升，关注经销商盈利》 2025.08.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 1674.00 CNY [5][11] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic AI chip market, with expectations for continued high growth driven by increasing demand from domestic CSP manufacturers and accelerated AI chip deployment [2][11] - The company reported significant year-on-year revenue growth of 4347.8% in H1 2025, achieving revenue of 2.88 billion CNY, compared to only 0.06 billion CNY in the same period of 2024 [11] - The report highlights the company's ongoing product iteration and advanced 7nm process technology, which enhances product performance across its AI core scenarios [11] Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a substantial increase from 709 million CNY in 2023 to 11.66 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 506.5% from 2024 to 2025 [4][12] - The net profit (attributable to the parent company) is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 2.11 billion CNY, up from a loss of 848 million CNY in 2023 [4][12] - The gross margin is projected to be 55.9% in H1 2025, indicating a slight decrease compared to previous periods [11] Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 507.37 billion CNY, with a 52-week stock price range of 208.87 to 1587.91 CNY [6][11] - The company has a total share capital of 418 million shares, all of which are A-shares [6] Product and Technology Development - The company has developed a comprehensive product ecosystem covering cloud, edge, and terminal applications, addressing diverse AI training and inference needs [11] - The product line includes the Siyuan series of intelligent chips and boards, as well as the Xuansi series of intelligent machines, which are widely used in data centers and cloud server scenarios [11]

| [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | [Table_Target] 目标价格(元): | 49.08 | | 程碧升(分析师) | 021-23185685 | chengbisheng@gtht.com | S0880525040031 | | | | 徐洋(分析师) | 021-38032032 | xuyang6@gtht.com | S0880520120008 | | | 本报告导读： 2025H1 海天业绩实现双位数增长，其他调味品放量成收入亮点，成本下行驱动盈利 能力提升。 投资要点： [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 35.27 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6][19]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the core subsidiary, Jinsai Pharmaceutical, is increasing its investment in research and sales, which is impacting short-term profitability. The focus is on the innovation pipeline data and business development transactions as catalysts for growth, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [2][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 14,566 million, with a year-on-year growth of 15.4%. However, a decline of 7.6% is expected in 2024, followed by a slight decrease of 0.3% in 2025, and a recovery with growth of 2.8% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 4,532 million in 2023, with a significant drop of 43.0% to 2,583 million in 2024. The net profit is expected to further decline to 2,148 million in 2025, before recovering to 2,376 million in 2026 and 2,525 million in 2027 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease from 11.11 yuan in 2023 to 5.26 yuan in 2025, with a gradual increase to 6.19 yuan by 2027 [4]. Market Data - The company's target price is set at 157.94 yuan, with the current price at 127.49 yuan [6][12]. - The market capitalization is reported at 52,008 million, with a 52-week price range of 78.90 to 128.00 yuan [7]. Investment Highlights - Jinsai Pharmaceutical, as a leader in the growth hormone industry, is expected to maintain its competitive edge despite a deteriorating competitive landscape for long-acting growth hormones. The company has five years of real-world data proving the safety of its long-acting products and has received approvals for three major indications [12]. - The report highlights the diversification of product revenue, with a focus on new key products such as Jinbeixin and Meishiya, which are expected to capture significant market potential [12]. - The company has a rich pipeline of research projects, with several candidates expected to submit IND applications in the second half of the year, indicating potential for international market expansion [12].

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.08 慢牛延续，行情扩散 [Table_Authors] 顾一格(分析师) 转债事件点评 本报告导读： 投资要点： 虽然当前转债价格和估值仍处于历史高位，但在"慢牛"思维下，短期调整反而为 优质个券提供布局机会。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 债 券 事 件 点 评 美联储"转鸽"后，国内宽货币空间几何 2025.08.28 抢筹加速期，估值不言顶 2025.08.24 "此"宽货币，已非"彼"宽货币 2025.08.18 7 月金融数据全览 2025.08.15 抢筹行情延续，双击势能仍在 2025.08.09 证 券 研 究 报 告 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 可转债市场整体呈现先抑后扬的态势。中证转债指数全周上涨 0.61%，与此 前一周下跌 2.58%相比有所回暖，但同期中证 1000 指数下跌 2.59%，转债 表现整体强于正股。从结构看，低价转债和双低转债表现好于高价低溢价率 转债。周一转债继续相对正股超跌，转股溢价率进一步压缩，周二至周四正 股下跌期间，转债相对正股抗跌，周五随着正股反弹，转债大幅反弹，转债 等权指数涨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][10]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 decreased by 8% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in income from BOT water service construction projects. However, significant savings in financial expenses and effective cost control were noted [2][10]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.522 billion, 1.603 billion, and 1.672 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.15, 0.16, and 0.17 RMB [10][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (million RMB): - 2023A: 24,519 - 2024A: 24,270 - 2025E: 24,257 - 2026E: 25,003 - 2027E: 26,122 - Net profit (million RMB): - 2023A: 1,896 - 2024A: 1,678 - 2025E: 1,522 - 2026E: 1,603 - 2027E: 1,672 - The report indicates a gross profit margin improvement of 1.98 percentage points to 39.95% due to an increase in high-margin water treatment service revenue [4][10]. Revenue Composition - Revenue contributions from various segments for the first half of 2025: - Sewage treatment: 43% - Water supply: 14% - Urban resource services: 29% - Construction and technical service equipment sales: 14% [10]. Cost Management - Management expenses decreased by 8% to 1.157 billion RMB, and financial expenses reduced by 31% to 0.958 billion RMB, reflecting effective cost control measures [10][11]. Dividend and Capital Expenditure - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.0735 HKD per share, a 5% increase year-on-year. Capital expenditure for the first half of 2025 decreased by 40% to 0.943 billion RMB [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth and maintain profitability, with a target price raised to 26.09 CNY from the previous 22.71 CNY [11]. - The company has a robust order backlog in marine projects and is actively expanding its special optical fiber business [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 47,622 million CNY in 2023 to 96,245 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.4% [3][12]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2,154 million CNY in 2023 to 4,773 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of about 20.7% [3][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.87 CNY in 2023 to 1.94 CNY in 2027 [3][12]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 8.4% in 2023 to 12.1% in 2027 [3][12]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 49,581 million CNY, with a total share capital of 2,467 million shares [5]. - The stock has traded within a range of 14.16 CNY to 20.90 CNY over the past 52 weeks [5]. Order Backlog and Business Expansion - The company currently holds marine power, marine engineering, and land cable orders totaling around 20 billion CNY, with marine communication-related orders amounting to 7.5 billion CNY [11]. - The acquisition of the German company j-fiber, which has nearly 40 years of experience in special optical fiber production, is expected to enhance the company's capabilities [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the humanoid robot industry, indicating a potential increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [10]. Core Insights - The recent procurement contract worth 250 million yuan for humanoid robot products and solutions by UBTECH is a significant milestone, marking the largest contract in the global humanoid robot sector to date. This event signifies the early stages of commercialization in the humanoid robot industry [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on quality companies within the humanoid robot supply chain that possess customer orders and scalable production capabilities. Recommended companies include Meih Lake Co., New Spring Co., Ningbo Huaxiang, Top Group, Zhaomin Technology, and Joyson Electronics [4][5]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - UBTECH has secured a 250 million yuan order for humanoid robots, specifically for the Walker S2 model, which features an autonomous hot-swappable battery system. The delivery of this contract is set to commence within the year [4]. - Tesla has introduced its fourth phase of the "Secret Master Plan," focusing on sustainable development and the integration of hardware and software to create a safer and cleaner world. This includes the development of fully autonomous humanoid robots aimed at redefining labor and enhancing human productivity [4]. Financial Projections - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates for several companies in the humanoid robot sector for the years 2025 to 2027, along with their price-to-earnings (PE) ratios. For instance, Meih Lake Co. is projected to have an EPS of 0.75 yuan in 2025 with a PE ratio of 50, while Ningbo Huaxiang is expected to have an EPS of 0.55 yuan and a PE of 55 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 19.20 CNY [6][13] Core Views - The company is currently facing short-term performance pressure due to the downturn in the photovoltaic industry, but it has a clear long-term growth momentum driven by technological advancements and a recovering photovoltaic glass market [2][13] - The company's market share in photovoltaic glass is approximately 30%, and it is focusing on high-transparency, ultra-thin, and high-efficiency products to enhance its competitive edge [13] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 21,524 million CNY, with a decrease to 15,050 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a decline of 19.4% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to drop from 2,760 million CNY in 2023 to 572 million CNY in 2025, a decrease of 43.2% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.18 CNY in 2023, dropping to 0.24 CNY in 2025, before recovering to 0.78 CNY by 2027 [4][14] Market and Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic glass market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to significant price declines in the first half of 2025, which has adversely affected the company's revenue and net profit [13] - In August, the photovoltaic glass industry began to show signs of recovery, with prices improving and inventory levels decreasing, which is expected to support profitability moving forward [13] Future Outlook - The company is projected to see a gradual recovery in revenue and profit margins from 2026 onwards, with expected revenues of 20,017 million CNY in 2026 and 23,020 million CNY in 2027 [4][14] - The report anticipates that the company's technological innovations will continue to drive its market position and profitability in the long term [13]