投融资再平衡的新阶段 投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Industry] 关于吴清主席在 2025 金融街论坛年会主题演讲的点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 吴浩东(分析师) | 010-83939780 | wuhaodong@gtht.com | S0880524070001 | 本报告导读： 投融资再平衡进入新阶段， 企业客户资源、专业服务能力以及跨境服务能力更具优 势的头部券商有望持续受益。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 | 投资银行业与经纪业《FISP 平台启动，公募基金 | | --- | | 直销迎变革》2025.09.06 | | 投资银行业与经纪业《券商投顾的未来图谱》 | | 2025.08.13 | | 投资银行业与经纪业《配置的利器:ETF 的战略角 | | 色》2025.08.12 | | 投资银行业与经纪业《稳定币政策出台高关 ...

策 略 研 究 融资资金重回流入，公募基金发行提速 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 投资者微观行为洞察手册·10 月第 3 期 本报告导读： 本期市场成交热度有所下降，资金层面上偏股基金发行边际抬升，融资资金流入加 速，而外资资金小幅流出 A 股与港股。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.27 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭胤含(分析师) | | | 021-38031691 | | | guoyinhan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524100001 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 | 成交活跃度下降，创业板指领涨 2025.10.25 | | --- | | 电子产业链景气延续，耐用品需求透支 | | 2025 ...

Group 1: Company Analysis - Shijia Photon - The report indicates a downward revision of profit forecasts for Shijia Photon, maintaining a target price of 75.20 CNY and a buy rating, with a projected EPS of 0.91, 1.78, and 2.28 CNY for 2025-2027 [2][3] - In Q3, Shijia Photon reported a revenue of 5.68 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 102.50%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 32.71% in net profit, attributed to product structure adjustments [3] - The company is well-positioned in the growing optical module market, with a focus on AWG, MPO, and DFB products, which are expected to benefit from sustained industry demand [3] Group 2: Company Analysis - Yiwei Lithium Energy - Yiwei Lithium Energy has seen strong demand for dynamic storage, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2026-2027, with projected EPS of 2.19, 3.65, and 4.36 CNY [4][34] - The company reported a revenue of 450.02 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32.17%, with a net profit of 28.16 billion CNY [35] - The report anticipates a continued increase in gross margins in Q4, driven by full production and sales in the energy storage sector [6][34] Group 3: Industry Analysis - Textile and Apparel - The luxury goods sector exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, with notable growth in North America, while the overall retail sales in China showed a slight improvement [8][9] - Major luxury brands like LVMH and Hermès reported revenue growth, indicating a recovery in consumer spending, particularly in the North American market [9] - The report highlights a cautious optimism for Q4, with expectations of a high baseline for the industry, suggesting a potential for continued growth despite previous challenges [9] Group 4: Industry Analysis - Optional Consumer Goods - The report emphasizes a clear upward trend in the tobacco industry, driven by supply-demand dynamics, with major international tobacco companies accelerating their market presence [13][16] - New product categories like heated non-combustible tobacco and e-cigarettes are gaining traction, with expectations of high profit margins and market growth [14][15] - The competitive landscape remains concentrated among major players, with low barriers to entry but significant market share held by established international tobacco companies [15]

Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in October due to weaker-than-expected inflation data, with the September CPI rising to 3.0% year-on-year, slightly below the 3.1% forecast[5][12] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stable at 4.02%, while the domestic 10Y government bond futures price decreased by 0.3%[6] Market Performance - Major stock indices showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 both up by 3.6%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.9%[6] - The S&P 500 Index increased by 1.9%, while emerging market stocks outperformed developed markets with a 2.2% rise[6] Commodity Trends - IPE Brent crude futures rose by 7.1% due to supply concerns from sanctions on Russia, while the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index increased by 3.7%[5] - COMEX copper prices saw a 2.4% increase, contrasting with a 3.3% decline in London gold prices[5] Investment and Consumption Trends - Consumer spending shows a divergence, with strong performance in goods like automobiles and textiles, while services such as urban travel and movie ticket sales are declining[10] - Investment in infrastructure is improving, with special bond issuance exceeding 90% completion and cement shipment rates increasing[10] Foreign Investment Activity - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of approximately 10 billion CNY in the last week, reversing a previous outflow of 11.3 billion CNY[35] - In Hong Kong, foreign capital inflow reached 9.5 billion HKD, with significant investments in software services and ETFs[36] Policy and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and plans to enhance consumer spending and investment in social welfare sectors[30] - The upcoming economic stimulus plan from Japan's new Prime Minister is expected to exceed 13.9 trillion JPY, aimed at supporting economic recovery[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tesla [7][11]. Core Insights - Tesla's automotive sales are strong, with a notable increase in energy storage business momentum. The acceleration of autonomous driving technology iterations, particularly with FSD and AI chips, is highlighted. The company is also advancing its Robotaxi and Optimus initiatives [3][11]. - The Q3 revenue for Tesla reached $28.095 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11.6%. The automotive revenue was $21.205 billion, up 5.9%, with vehicle sales reaching 497,100 units, a 7% increase year-over-year, marking a quarterly record [11]. - The report projects slight adjustments to Tesla's FY2025E-FY2027E revenue to $94.894 billion, $113.798 billion, and $141.742 billion respectively, with corresponding Non-GAAP net profits of $6.208 billion, $10.566 billion, and $13.513 billion [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million USD): - 2023: 96,773 - 2024: 97,690 - 2025E: 94,894 - 2026E: 113,798 - 2027E: 141,742 - Gross margin and operating profit margin are projected to be 17.5% and 5.1% for 2025E respectively [5][12]. - The adjusted PE ratio for 2025E is estimated at 250.6 [5]. Business Segmentation and Valuation - The report utilizes a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a target price of $518 based on various business segments: - Automotive hardware business: PE of 20x - Energy storage business: PE of 20x - FSD service business: PS of 30x - Robotaxi operations: PS of 30x - Optimus robotics: PS of 40x [11][14].

Group 1 - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain resilient growth, with a projected business volume of 128.2 billion pieces in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.8% [2][9] - The trend of small parcelization continues, driven by consumer preferences for cost-effective products, leading to increased repurchase frequency and smaller package sizes [9][41] - The regulatory environment has led to a slowdown in price competition, with the average revenue per delivery in the express industry decreasing by 7.3% year-on-year to 7.48 yuan in the first eight months of 2025, a significant improvement from a 12.3% decline at the end of 2024 [3][13] Group 2 - The express delivery sector is witnessing a shift towards value competition due to the implementation of new social security regulations, which are expected to increase operational costs in the short term but promote long-term industry transformation [4][72] - The concentration of market share among leading companies has increased, with the top six firms maintaining an 80% market share in 2025, indicating a trend of market differentiation among major players [20][26] - The introduction of autonomous delivery vehicles is expected to reduce last-mile delivery costs significantly, with major companies like SF Express and ZTO Express investing heavily in this technology [70][65] Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of e-commerce express delivery leaders, with a focus on companies like SF Express, YTO Express, ZTO Express, and JD Logistics, as they are expected to benefit from improved earnings visibility [77][78] - The report highlights that the profitability of express delivery companies will depend on the sustainability of price increases, with potential for significant profit recovery in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [60][62] - The report suggests that the ongoing trend of small parcelization and the rise of new consumption models will continue to support steady growth in delivery volumes [41][77]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Significant breakthroughs have been made in China's photoresist sector, with a research team from Peking University successfully using cryo-electron tomography to analyze the micro-3D structure of photoresist molecules, leading to a new industrialization plan that significantly reduces lithography defects [1] - Lifeng Biotech's FDCA production line project is nearing completion, with an estimated total investment of approximately 1 billion yuan and an expected annual output of 15,000 tons, generating over 1 billion yuan in revenue [1] - Corun New Materials has completed a 120 million yuan Series C++ financing round, led by Beijing Automotive Industry Investment, with participation from several notable investment institutions [2] - Weifeng New Materials has secured nearly 100 million yuan in a new financing round, which will be used to enhance R&D capabilities and expand production capacity in the AI supercomputing cooling structure component sector [3] Summary by Sections Industry Development Dynamics - Breakthroughs in the photoresist field with advanced imaging techniques leading to improved industrial applications [1] - Lifeng Biotech's FDCA production line project is set to commence production by the end of 2025, with significant expected output and revenue [1] Investment and Financing Dynamics - Corun New Materials has successfully raised 120 million yuan in financing, indicating strong investor confidence and growth potential in the field of fluorinated ion membranes [2] - Weifeng New Materials has completed a financing round to bolster its position in the AI supercomputing sector, highlighting the growing demand for advanced cooling solutions [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 109.46 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong demand for mobile energy storage, with commercial vehicles and energy storage operating at full capacity. The earnings forecast for 2026-2027 has been raised due to expected shipments from significant overseas clients [2][13]. - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 2.19 CNY, 3.65 CNY, and 4.36 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The average valuation for comparable companies in 2026 is estimated at 37 times price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, while the company is assigned a PE of 30 times for 2026 [13][15]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to grow from 48,784 million CNY in 2023 to 105,994 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.8% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 4,050 million CNY in 2023 to 8,913 million CNY in 2027, with a significant growth of 66.3% in 2026 [4]. - The company's net asset return rate is projected to improve from 11.7% in 2023 to 15.7% in 2027 [4]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 164,171 million CNY, with a 52-week stock price range of 39.40 CNY to 91.00 CNY [7]. - The current stock price is 80.25 CNY, indicating a potential upside to the target price [13]. Production and Capacity - The report notes that the company has faced capacity constraints in energy storage and commercial vehicles but has taken over several external factories to alleviate this pressure. It is expected to contribute 10-12 GWh of capacity in 2025 and 30 GWh in 2026 [13]. - The company anticipates that energy storage will maintain full production and sales, with an expected improvement in gross margins in the fourth quarter [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 49.50 CNY [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady revenue and profit growth in Q3 2025, with a focus on maintaining profitability through cost control measures. The reduction in e-commerce spending has led to a slight decrease in gross margin and sales expense ratio, while the net profit margin has shown a slight increase. The company is expected to continue high-quality growth by nurturing its key products [2][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,376 million CNY in 2023 to 2,490 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.4% [3][11]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 141 million CNY in 2023 to 268 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of about 19.2% [3][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.82 CNY in 2023 to 1.56 CNY in 2027 [3][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 10.1% in 2023 to 15.0% in 2027 [3][11]. Market Data - The company's stock price has ranged between 27.94 CNY and 55.60 CNY over the past 52 weeks, with a current market capitalization of 6,847 million CNY [5]. - The company has a total share capital of 172 million shares, with 43 million shares being tradable [5]. Product Development - The company launched a new product, the medical research recombinant protein toothpaste, in August, which aims to enhance its product matrix and has quickly gained traction on e-commerce platforms [10]. - The new product is expected to complement existing offerings and potentially become a significant online bestseller, contributing to the brand's growth [10]. Profitability Outlook - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 50.50%, an increase of over 6 percentage points compared to the pre-online transformation period in 2023 [10]. - The company plans to expand its high-margin medical research series products into offline channels starting in 2025, which is expected to enhance profitability in the medium to long term [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 41.04 CNY [4][12]. Core Insights - The company's revenue continues to show a quarter-on-quarter increase, with new dramas and variety shows expected to launch in the fourth quarter, which is anticipated to positively impact performance due to strong content [2][12]. - The company achieved a quarterly revenue of 30.99 billion CNY in Q3 2025, marking a 1.18% increase from the previous quarter, although it represents a 6.58% decline year-on-year [12]. - The company is expected to enter a period of concentrated content release, which should enhance both membership and advertising revenues [12]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 90.63 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 11.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.16 billion CNY, down 29.67% [12]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 6.74 billion CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 307.14%, with cash reserves exceeding 13 billion CNY [12]. - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.82 CNY, 1.08 CNY, and 1.32 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [12][14]. Market Performance - The stock price has fluctuated between 21.13 CNY and 35.76 CNY over the past 52 weeks, with a current price of 28.88 CNY [5][12]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 54,026 million CNY and a net asset value per share of 12.38 CNY, resulting in a price-to-book ratio of 2.3 [5][6]. Upcoming Content - The new drama "Water Dragon Chant" launched on October 24, 2025, with over 5 million pre-orders and more than 50 million views on the first day [12]. - The variety show "Sound of the Future 2025" is set to premiere on October 28, 2025, and will be broadcast across multiple platforms, which is expected to further boost revenue [12].