本报告来源于"慧博投研",请勿外传! 稳定币:如何重塑全球货币和资 -全球货币变局研究七 本报告导读: 当前稳定币以美元代币为主导,本质上就是美元主导的区块链上的货币体系。稳定 币的发展,其实是边际上强化了美元在货币体系中的主导地位,将美元的主导地位 拓展到了加密货币领域。目前稳定币市场规模还相对有限,持有资产规模也有限, 对全球资产价格的影响也有限。 投资要点: | ন | 应傢娴(分析师) | | --- | --- | | S | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880525040060 | | C | 贺媛(分析师) | | 5 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880525040129 | | ਦ | 梁中华(分析师) | | 5 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 观研究 / 2025.06.03 双 0 稳定币通常与某种稳定资产锚定,例如法定货币(主要是美元)、贵 金属或其他加密货币,以实现币值的相对稳定。相比于由底层算法 和代码天然保证稀缺性的加密货币,稳定币的"社会共 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][10]. Core Views - The company emphasizes warehouse safety and is expected to benefit from stricter industry regulations [2]. - The target price has been adjusted to 12.24 yuan, down from 16.89 yuan, reflecting a revised earnings forecast for 2025-2026 [10]. - The company has a significant storage capacity, with a total operational tank capacity of 5.1869 million cubic meters and warehouse capacity of 115,300 square meters [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decrease from 1,547 million yuan in 2023 to 1,450 million yuan in 2024, before gradually increasing to 1,834 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.5% [4][11]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline sharply from 296 million yuan in 2023 to 158 million yuan in 2024, before recovering to 343 million yuan in 2027 [4][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.35 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.75 yuan by 2027 [4][11]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 4.854 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 457 million shares [5]. - The stock has traded within a range of 9.09 to 15.14 yuan over the past 52 weeks [5]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 30.66 in 2024 to 14.16 by 2027 [11]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is currently at 1.8, indicating a moderate valuation relative to its book value [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company has maintained stable performance in the fiscal year 2025, with a focus on expanding into robotics and liquid cooling for data centers [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $3.98 billion, $4.35 billion, and $4.75 billion in the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with corresponding net profits of $308 million, $345 million, and $377 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17%, 12%, and 9% [7] - The company is entering the AI server thermal management system business, launching a new series of liquid cooling pumps designed for modern data centers and AI server architectures [7] Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of $3.65 billion for the fiscal year 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, while net profit was $263 million, an increase of 14.6% [7] - The gross profit margin for the fiscal year 2025 was 23.1%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of $73 million for the fiscal year 2025, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 28% [7] Future Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 are $0.33, $0.37, and $0.40 respectively, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 7.74, 6.91, and 6.32 [7] - The company is expected to see a recovery in revenue growth as it adjusts its customer mix and capitalizes on the rising demand for smart electric applications [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the AI industry Core Insights - The AI industry is experiencing rapid advancements with significant developments in generative AI applications and models, indicating a transformative shift in enterprise software from auxiliary tools to intelligent agents [13][15][45] - Major companies like OpenAI and Google are making substantial investments in AI technologies, including acquisitions and new product launches, which are expected to enhance their market positions [14][29][57] Summary by Sections 1. AI Industry Dynamics - Gartner outlines five fundamental principles for building intelligent applications, emphasizing adaptive experiences and embedded intelligence [13] - OpenAI's acquisition of a team led by former Apple Chief Design Officer Jony Ive for approximately $6.5 billion aims to innovate AI device development [14] - Microsoft announces the Build 2025 conference, highlighting advancements in AI programming assistants and intelligent applications [15] 2. AI Application Insights 2.1 Domestic Insights - Tencent's mixed image model achieves millisecond-level image generation, significantly reducing traditional generation times [17][19] - Manus introduces a new image generation feature that understands user intent and provides a one-stop service for brand design to website deployment [20] - Bilibili releases an open-source animation video generation model, AniSora, which supports various styles and has a large training dataset [22] 2.2 Overseas Insights - OpenAI launches an upgraded AI programming tool, Codex, which automates code generation and testing [26][28] - Google introduces the LightLab project for precise light source control in images, outperforming existing methods [29] - Supermemory releases an Infinite Chat API that maintains dialogue context, significantly reducing token consumption [30] 3. AI Large Model Insights 3.1 Domestic Insights - Zhiyuan's BGE vector models achieve state-of-the-art performance in multiple benchmark tests, supporting various programming languages and multimodal retrieval [45] - Tencent's TurboS model ranks among the top globally, with significant improvements in reasoning and code capabilities [46] 3.2 Overseas Insights - Wind-surf releases the SWE-1 model, focusing on optimizing the entire software engineering process [47] - Google launches the Gemini Diffusion model, which generates text at high speeds, showcasing advancements in diffusion technology [48] - Mistral introduces the open-source Devstral model, demonstrating excellent code understanding capabilities [49] 4. Technology Frontiers - UC Berkeley develops an open-source humanoid robot, significantly reducing costs and promoting accessibility in robotics [53] - OpenAI plans to build a massive data center in Abu Dhabi, indicating a significant investment in AI infrastructure [54] - NVIDIA unveils new products that enhance AI model deployment capabilities, emphasizing performance improvements [56]

Group 1: Satellite Launch Successes - The Tianqi Constellation 05 satellite group was successfully launched on May 19, marking the completion of the first phase of global networking with 37 satellites[1] - The Lijian-1 Yao-7 rocket successfully launched six satellites on May 21, contributing to urban planning and environmental monitoring[2] - The first large-scale lake ecological environment monitoring satellite was successfully launched on May 17, aimed at creating a remote sensing big data service system covering eight major fields[3] Group 2: Market Performance - The commercial aerospace index fell by 3% during the fourth week of May, with a trading volume of 5.451 billion shares, a decrease of 26.41% from the previous week[3] - Only 13.6% of companies in the aerospace industry chain saw their stock prices rise during the same period[3] - The top three gainers were Sihua Electronics (up 13.16%), Guoguang Electric (up 6.47%), and Aerospace Rainbow (up 4.56%), while the top three losers were Chenxi Aviation (down 14.72%), Tianjian Technology (down 11.14%), and Longxi Co. (down 10.54%)[3] Group 3: Financing Developments - Aurora Star completed over 100 million RMB in A++ round financing, focusing on space laser communication technology[29] - Xinhui Aerospace secured several tens of millions in Pre-A round financing, specializing in electric servo systems for aerospace[32] - Yinke Qirui raised nearly 100 million RMB in strategic financing, focusing on semiconductor technology for space applications[37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [5][8]. Core Insights - Northern thermal power shows significant earnings growth, while hydropower maintains stable profitability. Green energy faces pressure on performance due to dual impacts of wind conditions and electricity prices, while nuclear power profitability is affected by electricity pricing [3][5]. Summary by Sections Thermal Power - The report highlights that the cost side has improved significantly, leading to high earnings growth in northern thermal power. By Q1 2025, national thermal power companies continue to see profit growth, with northern plants outperforming southern ones. The median net profit growth rate for thermal power sample companies in Q1 2025 is 8% [12][14]. - The PE valuation for thermal power companies has been declining, with median PE ratios at 15.7, 12.9, and 10.4 for Q1 2023, Q1 2024, and Q1 2025 respectively. This decline is attributed to market skepticism regarding the sustainability of future earnings improvements [13][15]. - The report anticipates a recovery in thermal power company performance in Q2 2025 following a significant drop in electricity generation due to a warm winter [17]. Hydropower - Hydropower companies have shown stable earnings growth, with a median profit growth rate of 26% in Q1 2025, primarily driven by optimized water storage and dispatching [22][23]. - The PE valuation for hydropower companies peaked in 2024 and has since declined, with median PE ratios of 16.7, 18.8, and 18.1 for Q1 2023, Q1 2024, and Q1 2025 respectively. The report notes that leading companies with stable earnings and increased dividends have seen improved valuations [24]. Green Energy - Green energy companies are experiencing pressure on profitability, with median net profit growth rates of -12% and -4% for 2024 and Q1 2025 respectively. The sector is currently in a state of revenue growth without profit growth due to declining electricity prices and poor wind conditions [5][8]. - The report forecasts a recovery in green energy company performance in 2025, with an expected median net profit growth rate of around 12% [5]. Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector is facing profitability challenges due to declining market electricity prices. The report notes that the two major listed companies, China General Nuclear Power and China National Nuclear Power, have shown differing performances, with the former experiencing slight profit growth due to new operational units, while the latter faces significant profit declines due to accounting policy changes [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [4]. Core Insights - Nvidia is repositioning itself as an AI infrastructure company, emphasizing the distinction between traditional data centers and AI factories, which generate high-value "tokens" from power and data inputs [4]. - The next-generation GB300 AI system is set to launch in Q3 2025, boasting a 50% increase in computing power and memory compared to the GB200, with enhanced capabilities for LLM inference and training [4]. - Nvidia's DGX Spark, aimed at individual developers and small teams, will provide significant AI computing power, while the upgraded DGX Station will support large models with 1 trillion parameters [4]. - The robotics sector is projected to become a trillion-dollar industry, with Nvidia showcasing its leadership in AI-driven robotics development at COMPUTEX 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Nvidia's focus on AI ecosystems was highlighted during Huang Renxun's keynote at COMPUTEX 2025, where advancements in GPU architecture and AI systems were discussed [2]. Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes Nvidia's core role in the AI hardware and software ecosystem, with a strong recommendation for investment in SMIC [4]. - The Blackwell architecture supports more complex AI models and reduces computational costs, enhancing multi-modal processing capabilities [4]. Financial Projections - The earnings forecast for SMIC indicates an EPS of 0.46 RMB for 2024, increasing to 0.71 RMB in 2025, with a PE ratio projected to decrease from 178.26 in 2024 to 115.49 in 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" and sets a target price of 24.70 CNY [2][11]. Core Insights - The company's performance is driven by the integration of Apple intelligence and the penetration of titanium alloy in the consumer electronics sector, while the new energy business is entering a capacity release phase, and the robotics business is expected to grow significantly [3][11]. - The company is well-positioned in the precision electronic components market, with a diverse product matrix covering consumer electronics, new energy, and robotics [20]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 19.12 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 12.9% compared to the previous year, and net profit is expected to reach 888 million CNY, reflecting a 15% increase [10][17]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.65 CNY, with projections of 0.81 CNY and 0.93 CNY for 2026 and 2027, respectively [10][17]. Business Segments Consumer Electronics - The company provides precision structural components and connectors primarily for major clients like Apple and Samsung, with expected revenue growth driven by the upcoming Macbook replacement cycle and increasing demand for titanium alloy components in high-end Android devices [15][29]. - Revenue from consumer electronics is projected to be 115.08 billion CNY in 2025, with a slight decrease in gross margin due to competitive pressures [15][16]. New Energy - The new energy segment is expected to see revenue growth to 67.78 billion CNY by 2025, supported by the company's partnerships with major clients like Tesla and CATL [16][41]. - The gross margin for the new energy segment is anticipated to remain stable at around 16% [16]. Robotics - The robotics segment is projected to grow rapidly, with revenues expected to reach 1.74 billion CNY in 2025, driven by partnerships with leading firms and the introduction of humanoid robots [16][41]. - The gross margin for robotics is expected to stabilize around 22% [16]. Valuation - The report utilizes a comparative analysis with companies like GoerTek and Lens Technology, applying both PE and PB valuation methods to arrive at a target price of 24.70 CNY, reflecting a cautious approach [19][21].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant policy movements, industry trends, international events, and corporate dynamics that shape the ESG landscape in China and globally Policy Movements - The "Beautiful Rivers and Lakes Protection and Construction Action Plan (2025-2027)" aims for a 40% completion rate of beautiful rivers and lakes by 2027, with significant improvements expected by 2030 and 2035 [5][6] - China has led the development of the first international standard for age-friendly digital economy, providing guidelines for online shopping, digital banking, and other high-frequency scenarios for the elderly [8][9] Industry Trends - Chongqing's "Comprehensive Green Transformation Action Plan (2025-2027)" sets ambitious targets, including a 16% reduction in GDP energy consumption by 2027 and a 25% share of non-fossil energy [14][15] - As of Q1 2025, Hong Kong's ESG-managed assets exceeded HKD 1 trillion, with 218 ESG funds recognized by the Securities and Futures Commission [17][18] International Events - The EU and UK are working to connect their carbon markets through a new agreement, enhancing cooperation on emissions trading systems [22][23] - The EU has postponed the implementation of the Battery Regulation by two years to address challenges in supply chain adjustments and certification mechanisms [23][24] - India's steel production plans pose a threat to global emission reduction goals, as the country aims to double its steel capacity by 2030 [27][28] Corporate Dynamics - A total of 306 companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange have been included in the MSCI ESG ratings, with a notable increase in companies achieving higher ratings [29][30] - BYD Energy has signed a 3.5 GWh energy storage order with Grenergy, marking a significant step in global clean energy development [31][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][14]. Core Views - Short-term performance is under pressure due to non-operating factors, but long-term prospects remain positive with steady progress in new unit construction and a proposed share buyback plan by the chairman [2][14]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 10.6 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21% [14]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 74.957 billion yuan - 2024: 77.272 billion yuan (YOY +3.1%) - 2025: 86.127 billion yuan (YOY +11.5%) - 2026: 93.330 billion yuan (YOY +8.4%) - 2027: 108.026 billion yuan (YOY +15.7%) [4][14]. - Net profit (attributable to the parent company) is projected as follows: - 2023: 10.624 billion yuan - 2024: 8.777 billion yuan (YOY -17.4%) - 2025: 10.618 billion yuan (YOY +21.0%) - 2026: 10.938 billion yuan (YOY +3.0%) - 2027: 12.371 billion yuan (YOY +13.1%) [4][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023: 0.52 yuan - 2024: 0.43 yuan - 2025: 0.52 yuan - 2026: 0.53 yuan - 2027: 0.60 yuan [4][14]. Target Price - The target price for the company is set at 11.44 yuan, based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 [7][14]. Market Data - The current price of the stock is 9.65 yuan, with a market capitalization of 198.481 billion yuan [7][14]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of 8.99 to 12.22 yuan [14]. Investment Highlights - The company is actively pursuing the construction of new nuclear power units, with 19 units currently under construction or planned [14]. - A share buyback plan of 300 to 500 million yuan is proposed, with a buyback price not exceeding 13.98 yuan per share [14]. - The company plans to invest 1 billion yuan in a nuclear fusion company, indicating a forward-looking strategy in the energy sector [14].