Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the environmental protection and public utilities sector [3]. Core Viewpoints - The issuance of 10 trillion yuan in government bonds is recommended as a focus for debt investment in the environmental sector. The decision to increase local government debt limits by 6 trillion yuan aims to address hidden debts, with a total of 10 trillion yuan in debt resources expected to be available for local governments over the next five years [10][40]. - Short-term focus is suggested on environmental companies with significant accounts receivable pressure, such as "BWS" and "Mongolia Grass Ecology." Long-term, sectors with clear business models like sanitation services, wastewater treatment, and waste incineration power generation are expected to benefit from improved cash flow [40]. - Continued attention is advised on strong companies with solid fundamentals that have been undervalued in the market, including leaders in reverse osmosis membranes, semiconductor cleanroom equipment, and plastic sanitary pumps [40]. Market Information Tracking - The national carbon market saw a total trading volume of 7.108 million tons and a total transaction value of 723 million yuan this week. The average transaction price in the Beijing market was the highest at 110.3 yuan/ton, while the lowest was in Fujian at 31.46 yuan/ton [42]. - The LNG import price in China was reported at 13.27 USD/mmbtu, a decrease of 4.53% from the previous week. The ex-factory price in Shanghai was 4570 yuan/ton, down 3.57% [45]. - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 2.03% to 75,400 yuan/ton, while cobalt sulfate prices decreased by 1.09% to 27,100 yuan/ton [46]. Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the "2024 Annual Report on China's Policies and Actions to Address Climate Change," indicating a further low-carbon shift in energy consumption, with non-fossil energy accounting for 17.9% of total energy consumption in 2023 [50]. - The "Energy Law of the People's Republic of China" will take effect on January 1, 2025, focusing on energy security and green low-carbon transformation [51]. - The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is promoting green and low-carbon building practices, emphasizing the integration of advanced manufacturing and digital technologies in the construction industry [52]. Industry Performance - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.51%, the ChiNext Index increased by 9.32%, the public utilities index grew by 1.76%, and the environmental index climbed by 6.37% [55]. - Within the environmental sector, solid waste management saw a rise of 6.34%, while water management increased by 8.8% [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the results of the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point interest rate cut align with expectations, leading to a positive outlook for industrial metal prices [2]. - It suggests focusing on companies such as Luoyang Zhonggui, Jincheng Mining, and Jiangxi Copper, among others, due to favorable domestic policies and the ongoing Fed rate cut cycle [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report discusses the impact of the U.S. election results and the Fed's interest rate cut on the industrial metals market, indicating a favorable environment for price elasticity in industrial metals [2]. Copper - LME copper closed at $9,433 per ton, down 1.11% from the previous week, while SHFE copper rose to ¥77,100 per ton, up 0.76% [3]. - The report notes a slight increase in copper rod operating rates to 76.03%, driven by demand from the home appliance sector [3]. - As of November 7, social copper inventory stood at 192,500 tons, a decrease of 17,300 tons [3]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2,627 per ton, up 0.92%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥21,690 per ton, up 4.30% [4]. - The report indicates a tight supply of bauxite due to ongoing issues in Guinea, with domestic alumina operating rates at 83.64% [4]. - As of November 7, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory was 563,000 tons, down 34,000 tons [4]. Zinc - LME zinc closed at $2,984 per ton, down 2.67%, while SHFE zinc rose to ¥25,025 per ton, up 0.64% [8]. - The report mentions that domestic zinc smelting plants are negotiating long-term contracts for next year, indicating a potential increase in demand during the winter storage season [8]. Lithium - The report notes that the Zulu lithium project remains suspended due to funding issues, while advancements in solid-state battery technology are being pursued [10]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at ¥75,400 per ton, reflecting a 2.1% increase [11]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold closed at $2,691.7 per ounce, down 1.97%, while silver closed at $31.425 per ounce, down 3.53% [15]. - The report emphasizes strong global central bank demand for gold, maintaining a positive outlook for gold prices [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the computer industry, indicating an expected investment return that will exceed the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the recent U.S. election results, particularly Trump's victory, will likely intensify the U.S.-China tech competition, making "self-reliance" a critical theme for China's industrial development in the coming years [1][12]. - The report identifies the "Xinchuang" (信创) industry as a key area benefiting from multiple favorable factors, including worsening external conditions and supportive government policies, which are expected to drive domestic substitution in technology [2][13]. - The report highlights the growing demand for domestic AI computing power and the Huawei Harmony chain as new growth directions within the broader self-reliance strategy [4][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computer industry index increased by 14.89% this week, outperforming the Shenzhen Component Index by 8.14% and the ChiNext Index by 5.57% [16][19]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the Xinchuang industry is poised for growth due to favorable policies and increasing demand for domestic technology solutions, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.53% noted for the first half of 2024 [2][13]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Software, China Great Wall, and Dameng Data, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing domestic substitution trend [2][13]. AI and Computing Power - The demand for domestic AI servers and intelligent computing centers is highlighted as a new growth area, with strong potential for future expansion [4][14]. - The report suggests that companies like Zhongke Shuguang and Cambrian are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [4][14]. Military and Aerospace Infrastructure - The report notes that the military informationization and aerospace infrastructure sectors are expected to benefit from heightened geopolitical tensions, with recommendations to focus on companies like Nengke Technology and Aerospace Hongtu [9][15]. Industry News - Recent developments in artificial intelligence, such as Tencent's launch of a large model with 389 billion parameters, are noted as significant advancements in the sector [21]. - The establishment of various industry funds, including a 20 billion yuan fund for low-altitude economy, indicates growing governmental support for emerging sectors [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a target price for key stocks such as Midea Group at 87.84 CNY, Gree Electric at 56.96 CNY, and Haier Smart Home at 36.96 CNY, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry continues to experience high external demand, with exports growing by 10.4% year-on-year in Q3, while domestic sales are expected to recover due to subsidy policies [2][4]. - The overall revenue growth of the home appliance industry slowed to 2.5% year-on-year in Q3, with small appliances and black appliances leading the growth [1][39]. - The profitability of the home appliance industry remains stable, with improvements in net profit margins for white goods, lighting, and upstream sectors [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Home Appliance Industry Overview - Q3 revenue growth for the home appliance industry was 2.5% year-on-year, down 3.2 percentage points from Q2, primarily due to weak domestic consumption and real estate market conditions [1][39]. - Domestic sales are under pressure, but the "old-for-new" subsidy policy is expected to boost consumer sentiment and sales [1][39]. 2. Export Performance - Q3 saw a robust external demand, with home appliance exports increasing by 10.4% year-on-year, driven by strong demand from emerging markets such as Latin America and Southeast Asia [2][40]. - The report highlights that despite rising tariff risks, the competitive strength of Chinese home appliance companies is expected to enhance their global market share [2]. 3. Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin for the home appliance industry decreased by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year in Q3, influenced by price competition and rising raw material costs [3][12]. - Net profit margins remained stable, with significant improvements noted in white goods, lighting, and upstream sectors due to effective cost control measures [3][12]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing "old-for-new" subsidy policies will likely improve domestic sales trends, while stable demand in Europe and emerging markets will support export growth [4]. - Recommended stocks include Midea Group, Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, and TCL Technology, among others, which are expected to benefit from these trends [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the electronic industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for domestic semiconductor replacement opportunities, particularly in the context of ongoing U.S. sanctions against Chinese semiconductor companies, which may accelerate the domestic replacement process [1]. - Tesla's advancements in Robotaxi and humanoid robots are noted, with a recommendation to focus on the related industry chain developments [2]. - The global smartphone market has shown continuous growth for four consecutive quarters, with a 2% year-on-year increase in shipments and a 10% increase in revenue for Q3 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Industry - The global semiconductor sales reached $166 billion in Q3 2024, marking a 23.2% year-on-year increase and a 10.7% quarter-on-quarter increase [12][44]. - Key domestic companies in the semiconductor sector are recommended for investment, including Longxin Zhongke, Haiguang Information, and Cambrian [8]. SiC Industry - The report emphasizes the clear advantages of domestic replacement in the SiC industry, with increasing penetration rates and domestic manufacturers making significant progress [6]. - Wolfspeed plans to close a SiC factory due to declining demand from automotive customers, highlighting the impact of electric vehicle sales on SiC chip demand [46]. Consumer Electronics - The report notes that the global smartphone market has seen a shipment of 307 million units in Q3 2024, with a 10% increase in revenue, reaching the highest level for a third quarter [3][48]. - Domestic smartphone brands are facing cost pressures due to rising prices of upstream components, leading to a wave of price increases for flagship models [27]. Market Performance - The electronic sector saw a weekly increase of 9.36% from November 4 to November 8, 2024, with semiconductor stocks showing the highest gains at 11.98% [7][52]. - The report lists top-performing stocks in the electronic sector, with notable increases for companies like Landai Technology and Weimao Electronics [53]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the semiconductor industry, Tesla's supply chain, and the smartphone industry for potential investment opportunities [8].

极低。 特朗普与化债 10万亿: 扛得住? 2024 年 11 月 10 日 目报告摘要: 本周上证指数涨 5.51%,创业板指涨 9.32%,成长风格表现强于价值风格,全 A 日均交易额 23987 亿,环比上周有所上升。自十一之后，我们就反复强调随着 目前 A 股大盘指数估值修复至中位水平,当前行情奏比 2019年初是相对恰当的 (1、2019年初大盘指数属于反转定价的经典案例,在大涨30%后进入到震荡; 2、历史复盘看,震荡区间在于底部上涨 15%-30%）。目前看,以上证综指为代 表的大盘指数已经接近我们此前预判的震荡上沿,结合11月6日美国大选"特 朗普"重回落地与11月8日人大常委会披露财政政策方案落地,我们依然维持 在急涨之后 A 股市场已经过渡到震荡思维,"震荡市底色"判断。需要注意的 是:11月8日除化债外对进一步明显增量刺激政策并未明确,例如明年财政赤 字率和后续特别国债安排的显著提升以及扩大消费的支持力度；结合未来 1-2 相关报告 圆策略定期报告 | --- | |-----------------------------------| | | | 林荣雄 | | SAC 执业证书编号 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the biopharmaceutical sector [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in oral GLP-1 drugs, with AstraZeneca's AZD5004 and Viking Therapeutics' VK2735 showing promising weight loss results of 5.8% and 8.2% respectively after four weeks of treatment [2][24]. - Multiple domestic companies are actively developing oral GLP-1 drugs, with several products entering clinical development stages [2][28]. - A total of 9 new drugs or new indications were approved for market entry this week, along with 1 new drug receiving IND approval and 40 new drugs accepted for IND [29][30]. Summary by Sections New Drug Market Review - From November 4 to November 8, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: Kexing Pharmaceutical (57.83%), Yanhong Pharmaceutical (18.36%), Laika Pharmaceutical (17.20%), Yunding Xinyao (17.10%), and Heyu (14.15%). The top five companies with stock price declines were: Kedi (-19.36%), Donghui Pharmaceutical (-9.14%), Youzhiyou Biological (-7.90%), Beihai Kangcheng (-7.69%), and Yongtai Biological (-7.69%) [1][21]. Key Analysis of New Drug Industry - Recent data on oral GLP-1 drugs, including AstraZeneca's AZD5004 and Viking Therapeutics' VK2735, indicate effective weight loss outcomes, with reductions of 5.8% and 8.2% respectively after four weeks [2][24]. - Domestic companies are progressing in the development of oral GLP-1 drugs, with several products in various clinical stages, including Eli Lilly's Orforglipron in Phase 3 and products from Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and Huadong Medicine in Phase 2 [2][28]. New Drug Approval & Acceptance - This week, 9 new drugs or new indications were approved for market entry, 1 new drug received IND approval, and 40 new drugs were accepted for IND [29][30]. Domestic New Drug Industry Focus - Key highlights include the priority review application for Ascentage Pharma's Bcl-2 selective inhibitor Lisaftoclax, clinical data presentations by Kexing Pharmaceutical at the ASH annual meeting, and the establishment of a new drug development company by Valiant Biotech in collaboration with Aditum Bio [4][36].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 28.46 CNY, representing a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 40 times for 2024 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company has launched a new AI application, ChatCAD, based on large model technology, aimed at achieving technological innovation in design management and knowledge management [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.573 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 49.89 million CNY, up 2.15% year-on-year [1]. - The company continues to see strong growth in its R&D design and AIoT businesses, with R&D design revenue increasing by 23.17% year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In the first three quarters, revenue from mainland China reached 735 million CNY, growing by 11.33% year-on-year, while revenue from non-mainland China was 838 million CNY, up 11.11% [2]. - The company has seen a 32% year-on-year increase in new customer contracts in Taiwan and a 58% increase in revenue from Chinese enterprises going abroad [2]. Business Segments - R&D design revenue was 84.39 million CNY, up 23.17% year-on-year, while AIoT revenue reached 404 million CNY, growing by 41.83% [2]. - Digital management revenue was 852 million CNY, with a modest growth of 1.3%, and production control revenue was 218 million CNY, increasing by 5.67% [2]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.536 billion CNY, 2.846 billion CNY, and 3.305 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 193 million CNY, 226 million CNY, and 258 million CNY for the same years [8][10].

Investment Rating - Buy-A rating maintained with a 6-month target price of 11.6 RMB [4][5][7] - Current stock price as of 2024-11-07 is 10.07 RMB [9] - 12-month price range: 6.89 to 12.22 RMB [12] Core Views - Short-term impact from maintenance at Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant, but strong medium-to-long-term growth potential [13] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 569.86 billion RMB, up 1.6% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.22% to 8.934 billion RMB [13] - Total power generation in the first three quarters of 2024 was 160.388 billion kWh, up 2.7% YoY, with nuclear power generation down 2.74% to 135.638 billion kWh [14] - New energy power generation surged 48.19% YoY to 24.75 billion kWh, driven by new capacity additions [14] - Profit decline attributed to lower market-based electricity prices and slower revenue growth compared to cost increases [14] Nuclear Power Projects - Ample nuclear power projects under construction and planning, ensuring future growth [15] - 13 nuclear power units under construction and 5 in planning, with a total capacity of 20.641 GW [15] - Expected to commission 1/1/2/5 units in 2024/2025/2026/2027 respectively [15] - Recent approval of 5 nuclear projects with 11 units, including 3 units from the company with a total capacity of 3.076 GW [15] New Energy Development - New energy installed capacity reached 24.147 GW by Q3 2024, including 7.8312 GW of wind and 16.3158 GW of solar [16] - Under-construction new energy capacity stands at 15.0452 GW, with 3.1977 GW of wind and 11.8475 GW of solar [16] - On track to achieve the "14th Five-Year Plan" target of 30 GW new energy capacity by 2025 [16] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 projected at 76.6/85.744/93.436 billion RMB, with growth rates of 2.2%/11.9%/9% [21] - Net profit for 2024-2026 expected to be 10.868/11.619/12.663 billion RMB, with growth rates of 2.3%/6.9%/9% [21] - EPS for 2024-2026 forecasted at 0.58/0.62/0.67 RMB [22] - P/E ratios for 2024-2026 estimated at 17.4x/16.2x/14.9x [22] Market Performance - Total market capitalization: 190.15468 billion RMB [20] - Circulating market capitalization: 190.15468 billion RMB [20] - Total shares outstanding: 18.88328 billion [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the pharmaceutical industry [4]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing overall pressure in 2024 Q1-3, with expectations for improvement in the fundamental performance in the future [1]. - The overall revenue of the pharmaceutical sector (excluding new and ST stocks) decreased by 0.71% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 7.65% [1]. - The PE valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is currently around 30.99 times, which is still at a historically low level [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Industry Situation - The pharmaceutical industry has faced challenges in 2024 Q1-3, with a revenue decline of 0.71% and a net profit drop of 7.65% [1][35]. - The third quarter saw a revenue decrease of 0.46% and a net profit decline of 12.53% [1][35]. 2. Performance of Sub-sectors 2.1. Chemical Preparations - The chemical preparations sector saw a revenue growth of 3.03% and a net profit increase of 15.36% in 2024 Q1-3 [2]. 2.2. Chemical Raw Materials - The chemical raw materials sector experienced a revenue growth of 1.16% and a net profit increase of 27.17% in 2024 Q1-3 [2]. 2.3. Biological Products - The biological products sector faced significant challenges, with a revenue decline of 23.26% and a net profit drop of 38.77% in 2024 Q1-3 [3]. 2.4. Medical Services - The medical services sector's revenue decreased by 0.10% and net profit fell by 10.52% in 2024 Q1-3 [9]. 2.5. Medical Devices - The medical devices sector saw a revenue growth of 1.14% but a net profit decrease of 1.8% in 2024 Q1-3 [11]. 2.6. Pharmaceutical Commerce - The pharmaceutical commerce sector's revenue grew by 1.44%, but net profit declined by 8.24% in 2024 Q1-3 [12]. 2.7. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The traditional Chinese medicine sector experienced a revenue decline of 3.40% and a net profit drop of 9.98% in 2024 Q1-3 [14]. 3. Fund Holdings - As of 2024 Q1-3, the proportion of public funds holding the pharmaceutical sector is 8.72%, a decrease of 1.44 percentage points [1][44]. - The pharmaceutical sector's share in the total market capitalization of A-shares increased to 6.9%, up by 0.16 percentage points [1][44].