证 券 2024 年 05 月 24 日 研 究 渠道转型红利释放，盈利端增长可期 报 告 —休闲食品板块 2023 年及 2024Q1 总结 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 ▌休闲食品:营收利润双增长，利润端增势强劲 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：廖望州 S1050523100001 2023 年休闲食品行业营收/归母净利润分别为 755.45/51.27 liaowz@cfsc.com.cn 亿元，分别同增 4%/19%。2023 年零食量贩渠道高速发展，劲 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 仔食品、盐津铺子等渠道转型进程较快的公司在 2023 年持续 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 释放红利，实现业绩增长。好想你、良品铺子在 2023 年积极 进行渠道变革，利润端相对承压，良品铺子实施全国范围内 行业相对表现 一次性降价拉低净利润表现，且由于其价格和品牌定位仍处 表现 1M 3M 12M 在调整过程中，消费者在再教育仍需一定成本，因此预计其 休闲食品(申万) -2.3 -2.6 -31.6 利润端短期承压。而好想你在 2023 年利润 ...

证 券 2024 年 05 月 25 日 研 究 情绪主导短期走势，关注地产增量政策催化 报 告 —食品饮料行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 ▌ 一周新闻速递 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 行业新闻： 1）1-4 月我国啤酒出口量额双增 20%以上。2） 分析师：廖望州 S1050523100001 1-4 月四川白酒出口 1.2 亿元。3）5 月中旬全国白酒价格指 liaowz@cfsc.com.cn 数下跌。 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 公司新闻：1）贵州茅台：王莉调研茅台东南亚市场；天猫 618放量3万瓶飞天茅台。2）五粮液：10 万吨项目年内投 行业相对表现 窖。3）今世缘：2024年目标营收122 亿元。 表现 1M 3M 12M ▌投资观点 食品饮料(申万) 0.5 0.3 -11.0 沪深300 2 .0 3.2 -6.5 当前我们仍维持之前子板块推荐顺序：白酒>啤酒>休闲食品= 软饮料>速冻食品>调味品>乳制品。 市场表现 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 白酒板块：期待端午旺季回款表现以及 ...

证 公 司 告 研 报 2024 年 05 月 24 日 研 究 证券研究报告 维持"买入"投资评级。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|-------------------------|-------|-------| | 预测指标 | | 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E | | | | 主营收入（百万元） | 3,207 | 3,829 | 4,525 | 5,228 | | 增长率（%） | 31.6% | 19.4% | 18.2% | 15.5% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 530 | 625 | 762 | 899 | | 增长率（%） | 54.2% | 17.8% | 21.9% | 18.1% | | 摊薄每股收益（元） | 0.52 | 0.61 | 0.74 | 0.88 | | ROE （%） | 14.5% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 16.4% | 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

证 报 策 研 北证指数持续下调，单日成交额创今年以来新低 投资要点 指数点位：本周华鑫北证综指报收 698.97 点，周内下跌 2.08%，北证 50 指数报收 790.38 点，周内下跌 1.89%，同期 沪深 300 指数上涨 0.32%。成交额：本周北交所每日成交额 分别为 37.72/30.59/29.50/27.01/28.03 亿元，周内日均成 交额为 30.57 亿，相比上周日均成交额 44.61 亿下降 31.47%。估值：截至 5 月 17 日，北证 A 股在剔除负值后得到 共 222 家上市公司样本，样本的 PE 均值为 39.46 倍，PE 中 位数为 22.07 倍，样本整体市盈率分布呈右偏。 万达轴承（920002.BJ）为 4 月 22 日北交所上线启用 920 代 码号段功能以来首个 920 代码公司，预计将于下周一（5 月 20 日）招股并于下周二（5 月 21 日）进行网上申购。公司是 国内叉车轴承的领导者及先行者，已成为国内规模最大的叉 车门架专用轴承制造商。 截至 5 月 17 日，北证共 248 家上市公司分属 33 个 Wind 三级行业。本周北证行业指数整体下挫， ...

告 究 地产 517 新政"五箭齐发"，政策信号明确，标志着地产 调控的纠偏甚至转向。复盘 2021 年地产销售见顶后的两 波月度级别地产行情，行业涨幅在 20%左右。本轮地产行 情涨幅已超过前两轮，成交占比升至两倍标准差，情绪处 于高位，进一步上行空间有限，短期不建议追涨。但中长 期来看，本轮地产政策力度强于前两轮，且是政策纠偏转 向的起点，未来空间逐步打开，把握分化轮动机会。 每轮地产行情均始于宏观经济偏弱、地产量价承压的低迷 阶段，此时市场对地产政策放松的预期不断强化，驱动资 金底部布局。随着地产政策的逐步落地验证，市场情绪和 地产指数共振向上。 ▌ 微观交易：两融交易占比小幅下行，北向大幅净 最近一年大盘走势 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 (%) 沪深300 ▌ 风险提示 证 略 —策略周报 结合地产政策、地产销售、房价、库存等因素判断，2022 年国内地产正式进入后周期。地产成交较高点已经腰斩、 新建住房库存累计已经回到 2015 年时期水平、房价已降 至 2016 年附近。 短期来看，本轮地产指数涨幅已超过前两轮，成交占比超过 9%，情绪已至高位，进一步上行空间有限。 究 1、《北 ...

证证 券券 研研 究究 报报 告告 金融工程专题报告 基于RSRS择时的中美核心资产配置组合 ——ETF投资+系列之三 ...

证 券 2024 年 05 月 23 日 研 究 2023 年业绩同比高增，平台化优势助力长期增 报 长 告 —北方华创（002371.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(首次) 事件 分析师：毛正 S1050521120001 北方华创发布 2023 年年报以及 2024 年一季报：2023 年，公 maozheng@cfsc.com.cn 司实现营收 220.79 亿元，同比增长 50.32%；实现归母净利 联系人：尤少炜 S1050124040003 润 38.99 亿元，同比增长 65.73%；实现扣非后归母净利润 yousw@cfsc.com.cn 35.81 亿元，同比增长 70.05%。2024 年一季度，公司实现营 收 58.59 亿元，同比增长 51.36%；实现归母净利润 11.27 亿 基本数据 2024-05-21 元，同比增长 90.40%；实现扣非后归母净利润 10.72 亿元， 当前股价（元） 295.8 同比增长100.91%。 总市值（亿元） 1571 总股本（百万股） 531 投资要点 流通股本（百万股） 530 52周价格范围（元） 216.52-323 ▌ 2023 年营收创 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has set a sales target for 2024, expecting a year-on-year growth of 18 00% [5] - The company continues to enhance its brand vitality and improve production capacity, with the first phase of the Kouzi Industrial Park project fully operational and the second phase adding over 6,000 tons of production capacity [6] - The company's market share in the domestic market is steadily increasing, with a clear trend of structural upgrades, while the brand influence in the external market is also steadily improving [7] Financial Forecasts - The company's projected revenue for 2024 is 7,036 million yuan, with a growth rate of 18 00% [9] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is 1,934 million yuan, with a growth rate of 12 30% [9] - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is 3 22/3 68/4 31 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14 0/12 3/10 5 times [7] Operational Highlights - The company's gross profit margin is expected to be 72 10% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 27 50% [10] - The company's ROE is projected to be 17 80% in 2024, showing a steady increase [10] - The company's total assets turnover rate is expected to remain stable at 0 5 [10] Industry and Market Position - The company is positioned as the "No 1 high-end blended-flavor baijiu brand in China," with continuous brand activities both online and offline [6] - The company's market share in the domestic market is steadily increasing, with a clear trend of structural upgrades [7] - The company is focusing on key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei for external market expansion [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance due to cyclical market conditions, but long-term growth is expected as major projects ramp up [2]. - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 9.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.479 billion yuan, down 43.48% [2]. - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.116 billion yuan, a decline of 9.82% year-on-year, and a net profit of 33 million yuan, down 91.27% [2]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The semiconductor market in China faced cyclical downturns in 2023, impacting the company's operating profit and net profit [2]. - The company increased its R&D investment to 1.154 billion yuan in 2023, a growth of 25.30%, accounting for 11.66% of revenue [2]. - The company is actively expanding its product lines, including two 12-inch production lines and a testing base, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue in the future [4]. Product Structure and Market Focus - The company is shifting its product structure towards high-end applications, with the new energy sector (including automotive and renewable energy) accounting for 39% of its applications, while consumer electronics represent 34% [2]. - The revenue share from the new energy sector increased from 16% in 2022 to 20% in 2023, indicating a growing market presence [2]. Capacity Expansion and Future Growth - The company is gradually releasing capacity from its 12-inch production lines, which is expected to drive revenue recovery [4]. - The Chongqing 12-inch production line focuses on power devices, while the Shenzhen line is set to produce specialized analog power integrated circuits and MCU products, with full production expected by the end of 2024 [4]. Financial Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 10.930 billion yuan, 12.169 billion yuan, and 13.667 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.13 yuan, 1.30 yuan, and 1.44 yuan [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 33.8, 29.4, and 26.6 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5].

券 研 公 2024 年 05 月 22 日 告 资料来源：Wind、华鑫证券研究 预测公司 2024-2026 年收入分别为 17.99、22.84、28.44 亿 元，EPS 分别为 1.70、2.40、3.27 元，当前股价对应 PE 分 别为 44.7、31.7、23.2 倍。公司产品品类持续扩张，积极打 造 AIoT 生态，业绩有望持续向好，维持"买入"投资评 级。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | 预测指标 | 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E | | | | | 主营收入（百万元） | 1,433 | 1,799 | 2,284 | 2,844 | | 增长率（%） | 12.7% | 25.5% | 27.0% | 24.5% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 136 | 190 | 268 | 366 | | 增长率（%） | 40.0% | 39.3% | 41.2% | 36.7% | | 摊 ...