ST 证券研究报告 太阳能 光伏行业历史财务数据复盘 同步大市 $$\mathbf { A }$$ 维持) 韧性犹在，底部初显 2024 年 9 月 18 日 行业研究/行业专题报告 太阳能板块近一年市场表现 投资要点： 我们选取了光伏行业相关的 175 个标的，高度相关的核心标的 $$9 7$$ 个， 分别按季度统计了其 2010Q1-2024Q2 期间公开披露的财务数据，分为利润 表、现金流量表、资产负债表三大方面汇总如下。 资料来源：最闻 利润表总结：收入增速创新低，毛利率创新低：受产业链价格下行影响， 2024Q2 光伏行业相关的 175 个标的营业收入总额为 4542 亿元，同比下降 13.8%。Q2 行业整体毛利率为 12.5%，环比下滑 $$2. 7 \mathrm { { p c } }$$ ，创历史新低。行业 的历史低点为 14.4%，分别出现在 2011Q4 和 2012Q4。2024Q2 光伏行业相 关标的扣非归母净利润为 20 亿元，较 Q1 的 95 亿元继续大幅下降。季度扣 非归母净利润最高值为 458.4 亿元，出现在 2023Q2。历史上来看，扣非净利 润在 2012Q4 和 ...

投资要点： 证券研究报告 新股研究 新股周报（2024.09.18-2024.09.20） 9 月份创业板新股首日涨幅和开板估值均有下降 2024 年 9 月 18 日 策略研究/定期报告 新股市场活跃度下降，9 月科创板新股发行 PE 较 8 月上升 周内新股市场活跃度下降，近 6 个月上市新股周内共有 1 只股票录得正涨幅(占比 3.03%， 前值 8.82%)。 科创板：上周科创板无新股上市。周内达梦数据录得正涨幅，龙图光罩录得周跌幅超-8%。 创业板：上周创业板慧翰股份上市，上市首日涨幅 68.17%，首日开板估值 31.58 倍。周 内无样本新股录得正周涨幅，富特科技、佳力奇、科力装备、慧翰股份录得周跌幅超-10%。 沪深主板：上周沪深主板无新股上市。周内无样本新股录得正周涨幅，小方制药、速达 股份录得周跌幅超-10%。 新股周期：7 月上市 6 只新股，创业板新股发行 PE 微升，首日涨幅高企，开板估值下降， 主板新股发行 PE 下降但开板估值上升。8 月创业板博实结/科玛科技/国科天成/佳力奇， 科创板龙图光罩上市，主板巍华新材/小方制药上市，8 月份各板块估值分化，科创板/创 业板新股首日涨幅 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a rebound in prices due to increased replenishment demand and a recovery in port coal prices. The overall demand for coal is improving, driven by factors such as the end of typhoon impacts in the south and a seasonal decline in hydropower generation [1][5]. - The report highlights that the supply-demand balance in the coal sector remains relatively stable, with no expectations for drastic price fluctuations in the third quarter. The low-risk interest rates and high dividend yields in coal stocks are attractive to investors [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Dynamic Data Tracking - **Thermal Coal**: Replenishment demand has increased, leading to a rise in port coal prices. As of September 13, the price of Shanxi mixed coal at Guangzhou Port was 940 CNY/ton, a weekly change of +2.17% [10]. - **Metallurgical Coal**: Steel prices have rebounded, increasing the demand for metallurgical coal. The price of main coking coal in Shanxi was 1550 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [18]. - **Coke and Steel Industry Chain**: Steel prices are recovering, but the demand for coke is still uncertain. The average price of metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1710 CNY/ton, a weekly change of -2.84% [29]. - **Coal Transportation**: There has been an increase in northbound transportation for replenishment, with the coastal coal transportation price index rising by +7.46% [34]. - **Coal-related Futures**: Futures prices for coking coal and coke have shown positive changes, indicating a favorable macroeconomic outlook [38]. 2. Coal Sector Market Review - The coal sector has underperformed compared to major indices like the CSI 300, with the CITIC coal index reporting a weekly change of -3.01% [43]. - Individual stocks in the coal mining sector have seen mixed performance, with some companies like Yanzhou Coal and Zhengzhou Coal Electric showing positive gains [43]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high certainty in earnings and strong dividend expectations, such as China Coal Energy. It also recommends companies with integrated coal and power operations, like China Shenhua Energy, for their risk-resistant business models [5].

证券研究报告 煤炭 行业周报（20240909-20240915） 领先大市-A(维持) 补库需求有所释放，港口煤价震荡回升 2024 年 9 月 18 日 行业研究/行业周报 煤炭行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 动态数据跟踪 动力煤：补库需求增加，港口煤炭上涨。受安监检查及北方降雨影响减 弱，部分露天矿生产及外运受限，煤炭产地发运一般。需求方面，南方台风 影响消弭，高温天气增加，沿海电煤负荷有所回升，终端补库需求有所释放； 同时，长江流域水电季节性回落，叠加化工等非电开工好转，煤炭需求整体 回暖，煤炭价格油馊反弹；中游港口供给增加，库存有所反弹，但下游港口 去库明显。展望后期，稳经济政策仍有空间，预计工业用电及非电用煤需求 仍有增长空间；同时，国际煤价高位，进口煤价差不高，后期进口煤增量预 期仍存变数，预计国内动力煤价格企稳。截至 9 月 13 日，广州港山西优混 Q5500 库提价 940 元/吨，周变化+2.17%；环渤海动力煤现货参考价 859 元 /吨，周变化+1.78%；欧洲三港 Q6000 动力煤折人民币 791.08 元/吨，周变 化-0.58%；印度东海岸 5500 动力煤折人民币 74 ...

2024 年 9 月 18 日 行业研究/行业快报 纺织服装行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 8 月国内社零同比增长 2.1%，7 月消费者信心指数环比延续下降。2024 年 8 月，国 内实现社零总额 3.87 万亿元，同比增长 2.1%，环比下滑 0.6pct，表现低于市场一致预 期（根据 Wind，2024 年 8 月社零当月同比增速预测平均值为+2.7%）。按消费类型分，2024 年 8 月餐饮收入、商品零售同比增速分别为 3.3%、1.9%。年初以来，我国消费者信心指 数由 1 季度的持续提升转为 2 季度开始的连续四个月持续下降，最新 7 月是 86.0，环比 下滑 0.2。 相关报告： 【山证纺织服装】Lululemon FY24Q2 营 收略低于预期，下调 FY2024 收入指引- 【山证纺服】行业周报 2024.9.9 【山证纺织服装】2024H1 纺织制造板块 业绩表现靓丽，运动服饰消费展现韧性- 【山证纺服】2024H1 中报综述 2024.9.5 所回升。线上渠道， 2024 年 1-8 月，商品零售额同比增长 3.0%，实物商品网上零售额 同比增长 8.1%，表现好 ...

7 T 研究早观点 2024 年 9 月 18 日 星期三 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 【山证通信】炬光科技（688167.SH）：技术平台和可达市场不断丰富， 打造全球头部光子 foundry-技术平台和可达市场不断丰富，打造全球头 部光子 foundry | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------| | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | 上证指数 | 2,704.09 | -0.48 | | 深证成指 | 7,983.55 | -0.88 | | 沪深 300 | 3,159.25 | -0.42 | | 中小板指 | 5,162.17 | -0.83 | | 创业板指 | 1,535.17 | -1.07 | | 科创 50 | 655.05 | -0.58 | 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【山证通信】长光华芯（688048.SH）：光纤激光市场竞争激烈致业绩 下滑，光通信等新动能正在酝酿 【今日要点】 【公司评论】爱旭股份(60 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-B" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook despite short-term challenges [1] Core Views - The company's performance is negatively impacted by irrational pricing and increased inventory write-downs due to industry supply-demand imbalance [1] - The company's profitability is under pressure in the short term, but future performance is expected to be supported by the mass production of ABC products [1] - The company's PERC battery shipments reached 12.84GW in H1 2024, while TOPCon battery production has achieved scale [3] - The company's overseas sales ratio has significantly increased, reaching 40.3% in Q2 2024, up from 12.7% in 2023 [3] - ABC component sales have grown substantially, with shipments of 1.62GW in H1 2024, a 232% increase YoY [3] Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of 5.16 billion yuan in H1 2024, a 68.2% YoY decrease [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.74 billion yuan in H1 2024, a 233.3% YoY decline [2] - Q2 2024 revenue was 2.86 billion yuan, a 68.9% YoY decrease but a 5.4% QoQ increase [2] - Q2 2024 net profit was -1.65 billion yuan [2] Product and Market Development - The company's N-type ABC components have achieved significant market penetration, with orders exceeding 10GW [3] - ABC components command a premium of 30%-40% in overseas residential markets and 15%+ in overseas commercial markets compared to TOPCon components [3] - The company plans to launch N-type ABC full-screen components, which are expected to have 6-10% higher power output than N-type TOPCon components [3] Financial Projections - The company's EPS is projected to be -1.09, 0.58, and 1.07 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - The company's P/E ratios are expected to be -7.0, 13.1, and 7.1 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - Revenue is forecasted to be 12.72 billion yuan in 2024, with a 133.4% YoY increase expected in 2025 [5] - Net profit is projected to recover to 1.06 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.96 billion yuan in 2026 [5] Industry Context - The photovoltaic battery sector faces intensified competition due to overcapacity, leading to declining battery prices and reduced profitability [3] - The company is transitioning its battery production structure, with TOPCon batteries achieving mass production in Q2 2024 [3]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the company to "Accumulate-B" rating due to competitive pressures in the fiber laser market and the need for time to expand in the optical communication and lidar markets [3]. Core Viewpoints - The company has maintained its leading position in high-power semiconductor laser chips, with continuous product technology iterations. However, revenue from high-power single-tube series and high-power bar series has seen a decline of 20.5% and an increase of 39.5% respectively [1]. - The optical communication market is being actively explored, with the company launching new products such as single-wave 100G EML and 50G VCSEL chips, which are expected to meet the growing demand driven by AI computing power [1][3]. - The company is also expanding into new markets such as satellite energy and visible light, aiming to become a major supplier of lidar optical chips [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 127 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -42 million, a decline of 299.35% [2]. - The second quarter showed a revenue increase of 44.62% compared to the previous quarter, indicating recovery from earlier production challenges [2]. Financial Data - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 275 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, followed by a recovery in 2025 with an expected increase of 37.9% [4]. - The net profit is expected to improve from -36 million in 2024 to 22 million in 2025, reflecting a significant turnaround [4]. Profitability and Valuation - The gross margin is projected to decline to 27.2% in 2024 but is expected to recover to 32.4% in 2025 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -0.21 in 2024, improving to 0.13 in 2025 and 0.30 in 2026 [4][6]. Research and Development - The company continues to increase its R&D investment, with management and R&D expenses growing by 19.9% and 13.6% year-on-year respectively [2]. - The establishment of joint laboratories for GaN laser technology indicates a commitment to innovation and market expansion [3].

F 证券研究报告 公司近一年市场表现 新易盛 创业板指 资料来源：最闻 市场数据：2024 年 9 月 12 日 收盘价（元）： 95.22 受益于北美大客户 AI 集群资本开支增加，上半年营收利润大幅增长。 上半年北美亚马逊、谷歌、META、微软四家云巨头 capex 合计 897.5 亿美元， 同比+44.1%，带动 AI 基础设施投资大幅增长。光模块作为 AI 网络 scaleout 扩展规模的核心设备受益于 GPU 出货量的增长和集群规模的扩大带来的配 比提升。Lightcounting 7 月的研究报告指出，2024 年全球用于 AI 集群的光 模块市场将超过 40 亿美元，同比翻倍以上，2025 年有望超过 70 亿美元，2029 年达到 120 亿美元。Cignal AI 在《2024 年第一季度光器件报告》指出，24Q1 全球高速数通光模块出货量超过 300 万只，800GbE 出货量几乎相当于去年 全年，预计数通市场将在 2024 年翻番。与此同时，以太网 AI 交换机以其对 更大规模集群的良好支持、开放操作系统和可编程性强以及高性价比未来出 货比例将快速提升，尤其在北美云厂商灰盒和白盒的交 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add-A" investment rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [2][6]. Core Views - The company's traditional business remains stable, with significant growth potential in its automotive and humanoid robot screw rod businesses [2][6]. - The company has shown resilience in its core bearing and ring business, with expectations for steady growth despite challenges in the wind power sector [6]. - The report highlights the company's strategic investments in R&D and production capabilities, particularly in the fields of new energy vehicles and robotics [6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.752 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.01%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.64% to 75.055 million yuan [3]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw a significant improvement, with operating revenue reaching 979 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.92% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.70% [3]. - The company's gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 16.57%, an increase of 1.21 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 4.49%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points [4]. Business Segments - The automotive parts segment reported revenue of 196 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.20%, contributing 11.2% to total revenue [4]. - The company has made significant advancements in the development of new products for the new energy vehicle sector, including core components for electric motor brakes [4]. - The humanoid robot sector has seen the introduction of new products such as micro screw rods and planetary roller screws, with initial sales already occurring [4]. Market Expansion - The company is actively pursuing global market expansion, including a strategic investment in a leading domestic wind power bearing company to enhance its market presence [5]. - The acquisition of WJB Holdings in North America aims to integrate sales channels for hub bearings, potentially increasing sales in the automotive aftermarket [5]. Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 143 million yuan, 184 million yuan, and 243 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 3.4%, 28.6%, and 32.3% [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.39 yuan, 0.50 yuan, and 0.66 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 32.1, 24.9, and 18.9 [6].