相关报告： 美国： 【 山证 宏观 策 略】 海 外经 济周 观 察 （20240722~20240728） 2024.7.29 【 山证 宏观 策 略】 海 外经 济周 观 察 （20240708~20240714） 2024.7.16 美国 7 月就业数据依旧表现疲弱，失业率进一步上升，带动市场交易"衰 退"。与此同时，FOMC 鲍威尔表态偏鸽，提及如果就业市场的放缓超出"平 衡回归"，货币政策将会开展积极应对。由此，市场对于 2024 年的降息预期 出现明显调整，截至 8 月 4 日，根据 CME FedWatch 工具，市场预期美联储 将在 9 月、11 月各降息 50bp，12 月再度降息 25bp，全年累计降息 125bp（上 周预期 9 月、11 月、12 月各降息 25bp，全年累计降息 75bp）。 【 山证 宏观 策 略】 海 外经 济周 观 察 （20240610~20240616） 2024.6.18 【 山证 宏观 策 略】 海 外经 济周 观 察 （20240603~20240609） 2024.6.10 【 山证 宏观 策 略】 海 外经 济周 观 察 （20240527~202 ...

2024 年8月5日 策略研究/定期报告 投资要点: 新股市场活跃度上升,8月创业板新股首日涨幅有所下降 A 周内新股市场活跃度上升,近6个月上市新股周内共有 18 只股票录得正涨幅(占比 58.06%，前值 20.00%)。 科创板:上周科创板无新股上市。周内达梦数据、上海合晶录得周涨幅超 1%,灿芯股份、 中创股份录得周跌幅超-1%。 创业板:上周创业板博实结上市,上市首日涨幅 99.73%,首日开板估值 44.59 倍。周内 中仑新材、瑞迪智驱、宏鑫科技录得周涨幅超 4%,绿联科技、博实结录得周跌幅超-10%。 沪深主板:上周沪深主板力聚热能上市,上市首日涨幅 55.00%,首日开板估值 19.71 倍。 周内安乃达、平安电工录得周涨幅超 10%,力聚热能、广合科技录得周跌幅超-2%。 新股周期:6月上市6只新股,创业板/科创板新股首日涨幅高企,主板新股首日涨幅较 4 月下降(5月无新股上市),创业板首日开板估值较5月上升,科创板/主板新股首日开板 山西证券新股研究团队 估值下降,估值水平分化。7月主板安乃达/键邦股份/力聚热能,创业板乔锋智能/科力装 备/绿联科技上市,创业板新股发行市盈率微升,首日涨 ...

研究早观点 2024 年 8 月 5 日 星期一 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 【今日要点】 【山证煤炭】行业周报（20240729-20240804）：-降息叠加设备更新计 划实施，关注双焦需求恢复 【行业评论】太阳能：国务院明确提出将碳排放指标纳入国民经济和社会 发展规划 【山证纺服】行业周报-阿迪达斯披露 24Q2 季报，指引全年收入增长高单 位数 指数 沪深 科创 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------| | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | 上证指数 | 2,905.34 | -0.92 | | 深证成指 | 8,553.55 | -1.38 | | 300 | 3,384.39 | -1.02 | | 中小板指 | 5,503.14 | -1.40 | | 创业板指 | 1,638.30 | -1.66 | | 50 | 725.66 | -1.79 | 2019 年 2 月 21 日 ...

煤炭 行业周报（20240729-20240804） 领先大市-A(维持) 降息叠加设备更新计划实施，关注双焦需求恢复 煤炭行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 【山证煤炭】欧洲动力煤价格回涨-【山 2024.7.28 【山证煤炭】6 月进口继续补缺，关注政 策 方 向 变 化 - 煤 炭 进 口 数 据 拆 解 2024.7.26 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 刘贵军 执业登记编码：S0760519110001 邮箱：liuguijun@sxzq.com 投资要点 2024 年 8 月 4 日 行业研究/行业周报 动态数据跟踪 动力煤：交投整体平淡，动力煤价偏弱震荡。受安监等影响，煤炭产地 发煤维持低位。需求方面，上周全国延续高温状态，火电负荷维持高位，终 端去库延续；但当前仍处汛期水电发力，挤占部分火电，终端采购仍以库存 消化和刚需采购为主，动力煤价格偏弱震荡。港口煤炭调入继续低于调出， 港口库存降低。展望后期，稳经济政策仍有空间，预计工业用电及非电用煤 需求仍有增长空间；安监影响，山西复产增量空间预计有限；同时，国际煤 价高位，进口煤价差不高，后期进 ...

太阳能行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 605117.SH 德业股份 买入-A 300274.SZ 阳光电源 买入-A 601865.SH 福莱特 买入-A 601012.SH 隆基绿能 买入-A 600732.SH 爱旭股份 买入-A 300842.SZ 帝科股份 买入-A 【山证太阳能】中共中央健全绿色低碳 发 展 机 制 ， 上 半 年 新 增 光 伏 并 网 102.48GW 2024.7.28 肖索 执业登记编码：S0760522030006 邮箱：xiaosuo@sxzq.com 贾惠淋 执业登记编码：S0760523070001 邮箱：jiahuilin@sxzq.com 太阳能 行业周报（20240729-20240804） 同步大市-A(维持) 国务院明确提出将碳排放指标纳入国民经济和社会发展规划 2024 年 8 月 4 日 行业研究/行业周报 投资要点 国务院：明确提出将碳排放指标纳入国民经济和社会发展规划：国务院 办公厅日前印发《加快构建碳排放双控制度体系工作方案》。《方案》明确 提出将碳排放指标纳入国民经济和社会发展规划，并要求建立健全地方碳考 核、行业碳管控、企业 ...

纺织服装 行业周报（20240728-20240803） 同步大市-A(维持) 阿迪达斯披露 24Q2 季报，指引全年收入增长高单位数 2024 年 8 月 4 日 行业研究/行业周报 投资要点 本周观察：阿迪达斯披露 2024Q2 季报 阿迪达斯 2024Q2 汇率中性营收同比增长 11%，鞋履产品表现好于服装。2024Q2，阿迪 达斯实现营收 58.22 亿欧元，同比增长 8.9%，剔除汇率影响，同比增长 11%，其中阿迪 达斯品牌营收增长 16%，Yeezy 产品收入由上年同期的 4 亿欧元下降至 2 亿欧元。 2024H1，阿迪达斯实现营收 112.80 亿欧元，同比增长 6.2%，剔除汇率影响，同比增长 10%。分品类看，2024Q2，汇率中性下，鞋履产品营收同比增长 17%，服装产品营收同 比增长 6%，配饰产品营收同比下滑 8%。分渠道看，2024Q2，汇率中性下，批发渠道营 收同比增长 17%，DTC 业务营收同比增长 4%，剔除 Yeezy 产品，DTC 渠道营收同比增 长 21%。DTC 业务中，自营门店营收同比增长 15%，电商渠道营收同比下降 6%，剔除 Yeezy 产品，电商渠道营收 ...

资料来源：最闻 研究早观点 2024 年 8 月 2 日 星期五 【今日要点】 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 【公司评论】宁德时代(300750.SZ)：宁德时代半年报点评-Q2 业绩符 合预期，盈利能力保持稳定 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------| | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | 上证指数 | 2,932.39 | -0.22 | | 深证成指 | 8,673.58 | -0.92 | | 沪深 300 | 3,419.27 | -0.66 | | 中小板指 | 5,581.14 | -0.86 | | 创业板指 | 1,665.97 | -1.31 | | 科创 50 | 738.87 | -0.61 | 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【公司评论】聚灿光电(300708.SZ)：聚灿光电 2024 年半年报点评-行 业高端化趋势明显，量价齐升驱动公司业绩持续向上 【山证电子】乐鑫科技（688018.SH）2024 年半年报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company LED聚灿光电 (300708.SZ) [3] Core Views - The company has significantly improved its profitability due to high-end product upgrades and cost reduction measures, with a gross margin of 14.60% in the first half of 2024, an increase of 4.67 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The industry is experiencing a clear trend towards high-end products, with the company continuing to launch high-priced products and focusing on refined management to support long-term performance [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.334 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.24%, and a net profit of 113 million yuan, up 351.03% year-on-year [2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company’s LED chip production capacity reached 11.69 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, with a capacity utilization rate of 96.47% and a sales rate of 101.73% [2] - The average price of LED chips and epitaxial wafers was 59.38 yuan per piece, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.18% [2] - The company’s net profit for 2024 is projected to be 243 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 100.2%, 25.8%, and 53.9% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][5] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 2.839 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.384 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 243 million yuan and 470 million yuan [5][6] - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.36 yuan, 0.45 yuan, and 0.69 yuan respectively, with P/E ratios of 23.9, 19.0, and 12.3 [3][5] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.6% in 2024 to 17.1% in 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [2][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with a revenue increase of 37.96% year-on-year to 920 million yuan and a net profit increase of 134.85% to 152 million yuan [3]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 533 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52.78% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 37.66%, with net profit reaching 98 million yuan, up 191.87% year-on-year and 81.26% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company is expanding its product matrix and customer base, targeting new markets beyond traditional IoT devices, which could increase market capacity by 2.5 times [4]. - The gross profit margin has improved, with Q2 2024 margins at 44.11% for gross margin and 18.54% for net margin, indicating a strong operational performance [5]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 2.008 billion yuan, 2.629 billion yuan, and 3.231 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 327 million yuan, 451 million yuan, and 560 million yuan [6][8]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 37.4, 27.1, and 21.8 respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation trend [6][9]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise to 14.9% in 2024 and further to 18.6% by 2026, reflecting improved profitability [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 6-12 months [3][6]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable profitability with a slight increase in gross margins, despite a year-on-year revenue decline in the first half of 2024 due to reduced battery prices from raw material cost decreases [1][4]. - The company is experiencing significant growth in its energy storage segment, with a notable increase in shipments of its new battery products, which are expected to continue gaining market share [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company reported total revenue of 166.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.86 billion yuan, an increase of 10.4% [4]. - The company achieved a Q2 revenue of 87 billion yuan, down 13.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 12.36 billion yuan, up 13.4% [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 10.88 yuan, with net profits expected to reach 47.84 billion yuan [6][7]. Market Position and Product Development - The company leads the global market in both power and energy storage battery shipments, with a market share of 37.5% in the power battery segment for the first five months of 2024, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - New product launches include the Shenxing Plus battery, which features a 1,000 km range and rapid charging capabilities, and the Kirin battery, which has a discharge power exceeding 1,300 kW [2]. Capacity and Production - The company currently has a production capacity of approximately 650 GWh, with an additional 153 GWh under construction, including a significant facility in Hungary [1][2]. - Total battery shipments for H1 2024 reached 205 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with a full-year shipment forecast of 480 GWh, representing a 23% increase [1].