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2023年年报点评:经营稳中求进,受益于城市更新
Southwest Securities· 2024-05-06 02:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 24.50 CNY, based on a projected PE of 70 for 2024 [5][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 480 million CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, with a net profit of 40 million CNY, up 43.6% from the previous year [9][25]. - The gross margin improved to 45.5%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin rose to 9.1%, up 2.2 percentage points [5][10]. - The company is benefiting from urban renewal initiatives driven by national policies, which are expected to create substantial demand in the planning and design sector [26]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 482.82 million CNY and a net profit of 44.06 million CNY, with an EPS of 0.27 CNY [25][27]. - For Q1 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 90 million CNY, a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3 million CNY, down 8.4% [9][25]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is 56.48 million CNY, 62.77 million CNY, and 67.25 million CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 58, 52, and 49 [10][27]. - The report anticipates steady growth in the planning and engineering design sectors, with expected growth rates of 10% annually from 2024 to 2026 [12][30]. Business Strategy - The company is expanding its urban operation and smart city initiatives, aiming to leverage opportunities in the second phase of urbanization in China [26][30]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on enhancing its planning and engineering design capabilities while exploring new business avenues in smart city investments [30][26].
2024年一季报点评:深化“三核三链”,货运量稳步增长
Southwest Securities· 2024-05-06 02:30
Company Overview - The company operates a globally leading fleet of specialized vessels, including pulp carriers, semi-submersibles, multi-purpose vessels, heavy lift vessels, timber carriers, asphalt carriers, and car carriers, totaling 127 vessels with a combined deadweight of 4.684 million tons [2] - The fleet consists of 105 owned vessels (3.267 million DWT) and 22 chartered vessels (1.417 million DWT), providing safe and efficient transportation services [2] - The company has a diversified revenue stream, with multi-purpose vessels, pulp carriers, heavy lift vessels, and semi-submersibles contributing significantly to the total revenue [37] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 12.01 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.6% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 29.6% to 1.06 billion yuan [26] - The company's gross margin in 2023 was 17.7%, down 4.4 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to increased operating costs [71] - The company's four-fee ratio (management, sales, financial, and R&D expenses) rose to 11.5% in 2023, up 2 percentage points YoY [8] Operational Highlights - The company completed a total cargo volume of 16.239 million tons in 2023, an increase of 12.7% YoY, and plans to exceed 17.5 million tons in 2024 [27][46] - The company's revenue from pulp carriers increased by 33.5% YoY in 2023, while revenue from car carriers decreased by 77.6% due to a shift in business model [37] - The company's semi-submersible and heavy lift vessel fleets are expected to maintain high charter rates, with projected revenue growth in 2024 [10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is deepening its "Three Cores and Three Chains" strategy, focusing on new energy industries, advanced manufacturing, and strategic bulk commodities [44] - The company is expanding its key industrial chains, including pulp logistics, project logistics, and automotive logistics, to enhance its competitive edge [44] - The company plans to deliver new vessels in 2024, primarily multi-purpose pulp carriers, heavy lift vessels, and car carriers, to support business growth [44] Industry and Market Position - The company is a global leader in specialized shipping, with a fleet structure that includes multi-purpose vessels, heavy lift vessels, pulp carriers, and semi-submersibles [41] - The company operates in over 160 countries and 1,600 ports, with a strong presence in key routes such as Europe, America, Africa, and the Pacific [42] - The company is the only shipping company with successful operational experience in both Arctic and Antarctic routes, providing flexible and safe transportation services [42] Valuation and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.31 billion, 1.48 billion, and 1.61 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of 0.61, 0.69, and 0.75 yuan [38] - The company's PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 10x, 9x, and 8x, respectively, reflecting its diversified business model and profit elasticity [38] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 19.6%, 20.1%, and 20.6% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, driven by the recovery of the offshore industry and increased workloads [10]
毛利率&净利率逆势抬升,关注海外订单进展
Southwest Securities· 2024-05-06 02:30
毛利率&净利率逆势抬升,关注海外订单进展 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|----------| | [Table_MainProfit] 指标 / 年度 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 4932.66 | 6810.26 | 9099.60 | 10871.78 | | 增长率 | 110.93% | 38.06% | 33.62% | 19.48% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 285.87 | 473.79 | 669.44 | 906.93 | | 增长率 | 250.48% | 65.74% | 41.29% | 35.48% | | 每股收益 EPS (元) | 0.80 | 1.32 | 1.87 | 2.53 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 16.19% | 21.59% | 24.05% | 25.33% | | PE | 35 | 21 | 15 | 1 ...
内伸和外延双轮驱动,空悬业务放量可期
Southwest Securities· 2024-05-06 02:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.26 CNY based on a 2024 PE of 18 times [6][32]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience steady growth driven by both internal expansion and external acquisitions, with significant revenue increases anticipated in its new business segments [15][32]. - The company achieved a revenue of 172.44 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.63%, and a net profit of 11.31 billion CNY, up 16.78% [37][52]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are as follows: - 2024: 196.37 billion CNY - 2025: 225.21 billion CNY - 2026: 258.20 billion CNY - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - 2024: 14.09 billion CNY - 2025: 16.71 billion CNY - 2026: 19.12 billion CNY - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit is projected at 19.1% [32][52]. Business Segment Performance - **Sealing Business**: Expected revenue growth of 10% annually from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins projected at 26.6%, 26.8%, and 27.0% respectively [34]. - **Noise and Vibration Control (NVH) Business**: Anticipated revenue growth of 10% annually from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins of 20.5% in 2024 and 21.0% thereafter [3][34]. - **Air Suspension Business**: Projected revenue growth of 64.6% in 2024, followed by 21.3% and 23.8% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, with gross margins expected to stabilize at 23.0% [41]. - **Lightweight Business**: Expected to grow by 14.4% in 2024, 18.2% in 2025, and 11.5% in 2026, with gross margins improving to 16.0% by 2026 [19][22]. - **Cooling Pipeline Business**: Revenue growth forecasted at 15.4% in 2024, 22.3% in 2025, and 22.8% in 2026, with gross margins projected to reach 17.0% by 2026 [35]. Market Position and Comparables - The company is compared with peers such as Top Group and Zhejiang Xiantong, with average PE ratios for 2024-2026 projected at 18, 14, and 12 times respectively [6][23]. - The company’s market capitalization is reported at 173.12 billion CNY, with a current share price of 13.15 CNY [23][32].
23年年报及24年一季报点评:多渠道发力,品类协同成效明显
Southwest Securities· 2024-05-06 02:30
[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 05 月 01 日 证券研究报告•23 年年报及 24 年一季报点评 买入 (维持) 当前价:14.92 元 志邦家居(603801)轻工制造 目标价:——元(6 个月) [Table_Summary] 业绩摘要:公司发布 2023年年报及 2024年一季报,2023年公司实现营收 61.2 亿元,同比+13.5%;实现归母净利润 6 亿元,同比+10.8%;实现扣非净利润 5.5 亿元,同比+10%。单季度来看,2023Q4 公司实现营收 21.9 亿元,同比 +16.9%;实现归母净利润 2.5亿元,同比+10.5%;实现扣非后归母净利润 2.2 亿元,同比+11.4%。2024Q1 公司实现营收 8.2 亿元,同比+1.8%;实现归母 净利润 0.5亿元,同比-8.4%;实现扣非后归母净利润 0.4亿元,同比-10%。在 行业较大的需求压力下,公司业绩保持稳健。 衣柜品类体量持续提升,木门增长亮眼。分品类来看,2023年橱柜品类收入 28.4 亿元,同比+3.7%,占营收比重 46.4%(-4.4pp),产销量分别为 49.2万套(+2.9%) /5 ...
常规疫苗平稳增长,期待新产品放量
Southwest Securities· 2024-05-06 02:30
Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.48 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 860 million yuan, a significant increase of 749% [2][3]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 450 million yuan, a decline of 39.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 54 million yuan, down 73.7% [2]. - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 84.5%, with a net profit margin of 24.8%, primarily due to lower impairment losses and R&D expenses compared to the previous year [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company’s quarterly revenues were 750 million yuan in Q1, 980 million yuan in Q2, 730 million yuan in Q3, and 1.01 billion yuan in Q4, showing a strong recovery in Q4 with a growth of 71% [2]. - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is projected to grow to 4.27 billion yuan, 5.35 billion yuan, and 6.63 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 22.7%, 25.3%, and 24.0% [4][9]. Product Development - The company anticipates a stepwise increase in product approvals over the next 2-3 years, contributing to long-term performance growth. New products include the human rabies vaccine and varicella vaccine, which have already been approved [3]. - The sales revenue from routine vaccines (excluding COVID-19 vaccines) reached 3.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, with the 13-valent pneumonia vaccine sales growing by 55.6% [2][3]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.79 yuan, 1.06 yuan, and 1.32 yuan, respectively [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow to 879 million yuan in 2024, 1.18 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.48 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 2.04%, 34.07%, and 25.22% [4][9]. Market Position - The company maintains a stable market position with a total market capitalization of approximately 23.18 billion yuan and a total asset value of 15.02 billion yuan [7]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 27 in 2024 to 16 in 2026, indicating a potentially attractive valuation as earnings grow [4][9].
受大额订单确认节奏影响,24Q1业绩承压
Southwest Securities· 2024-05-06 02:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to perform in line with the market over the next six months [18][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 391.48 million in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 160 million, up 10.3% year-on-year [4]. - The company is advancing its high-end product strategy, which has led to a continuous improvement in gross margin, reaching 61.3% in 2023, an increase of 3.76 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company’s high-end products accounted for 22% of total sales, up 4 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to an average price increase of 23.4% for its four main product categories [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading domestic manufacturer of general electronic testing and measurement instruments, benefiting from domestic substitution and a recovering overseas market [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are as follows: 472.97 million in 2024, 577.68 million in 2025, and 699.31 million in 2026, with growth rates of 20.81%, 22.14%, and 21.05% respectively [2][17]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 180 million in 2024, 230 million in 2025, and 280 million in 2026, with compound annual growth rates of 22% over the next three years [5][6]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain stable, with slight increases expected, reaching 65.89% by 2026 [2][17]. Comparable Company Analysis - The report compares the company with peers such as Puyuan Precision and Kunheng Shunwei, noting that the average PE ratios for these companies are 34, 25, and 20 for the years 2024-2026 [3][6]. - The company is the only domestic manufacturer to achieve high-end product development across its four main product lines, positioning it well to benefit from domestic substitution and overseas market expansion [6].
股权激励影响利润,主业经营持续增长
Southwest Securities· 2024-05-06 02:00
股权激励影响利润,主业经营持续增长 股权激励影响利润,主业经营持续增长。24Q1公司归母净利润下降主要是由于 计提股权激励费用和海运费同比增加等因素所致,但公司主业经营状况持续提 升,24Q1 毛利率 29.5%,同比+1.3pp,环比+3.3pp,盈利能力逐渐恢复,主 要来自主营业务迅速增长。从地区来看,23年海外营收占比 51.1%,国内占比 46.9%,同比+7.5pp,与海外占比差距不断缩小,表明国内客户持续放量。 盈利预测与投资建议。预计公司 2024-2026 年 EPS 分别为 2.37/2.87/3.67元, 对应 PE 为 18/14/11 倍,归母净利润 CAGR 为 27.1%,维持"买入"评级。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|--------|----------------------------------|--------|--------| | [Table_MainProfit] 指标 / 年度 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | ...
“产品超市”品类持续完善,全球布局有序推进
Southwest Securities· 2024-05-06 02:00
[Table_StockInfo] 买入 2024年 04月 30日 (维持) 证券研究报告•2023年年报&2024年一季报点评 当前价: 19.26元 爱 柯 迪(600933) 汽车 目标价: ——元(6个月) “产品超市”品类持续完善,全球布局有序推进 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [T a事ble件_S:(u1m)公ma司ry发] 布2023年度报告,2023年实现营收59.57亿元,同比+39.67%; [分Ta析bl师e_:Au郑th连or声] 归母净利润9.13亿元,同比+40.84%;扣非归母净利润8.76亿元,同比+45.15%。 执业证号:S1250522040001 其中,2023Q4实现营收17.23亿元,同环比分别+39.05%/ +8.25%;归母净利 电话:010-57758531 润 3.16亿元,同环比分别+30.94%/ +56.52%;扣非归母净利润2.87亿元,同 邮箱:zlans@swsc.com.cn 环比分别+39.38%/ +44.18%。(2)公司发布2024年一季度报告,2024Q1实现 联系人:冯安琪 营收 16.42亿元,同环比分别+30.69%/ ...
Fibro保持高增速,股权激励彰显信心
Southwest Securities· 2024-05-06 02:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Fibro, indicating a strong growth trajectory and confidence in the company's future through stock incentive plans [4][10]. Core Insights - FibroGo's per-use charging model and the launch of the new drug Resmetirom for MASH are expected to significantly expand the demand for liver fibrosis testing [2][11]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.15 billion yuan in 2023, a 14.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 100 million yuan, up 3.8% [3][5]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed a remarkable revenue growth of 33.4% to 320 million yuan, with net profit soaring by 228.6% to 40 million yuan [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the revenue breakdown shows medical device income at 830 million yuan (+35.4%), while pharmaceutical income decreased to 280 million yuan (-20.8%) [3][5]. - The company expects revenue growth for 2024-2026 to be 34.3%, 36.2%, and 30.2% respectively, with net profit projected to grow significantly [5][11]. Business Segments - The medical device segment is anticipated to continue its strong performance, with a projected gross margin of 90% for 2024-2026 [11][12]. - The pharmaceutical segment is transitioning to an academic-led sales model, with expected revenue growth of 18% annually from 2024 to 2026 [11][12]. Stock Incentive Plan - The company has proposed a stock incentive plan to grant approximately 3.5 million shares, representing 1.3% of the total share capital, with performance targets set for net profit over the next three years [4][10]. Market Outlook - The global market for liver fibrosis testing is expected to expand due to the new per-use charging model and the introduction of new drugs targeting MASH [2][11].