盈利预测 关键假设： 公司业务主要以空分设备为主，占比超 95%，可以应用于天然气、煤化工、石油化工、 冶金、工业气体等行业。目前下游行业需求旺盛，叠加"一带一路"政策利好，近年来公司 新签订单增多，2022-2023 年公司新签订单分别为 33.75 亿元、41 亿元；目前公司新厂区一 号厂房已经投入生产，产能有望得到提升，进一步保障公司业绩增长稳定性。预计 2024-2026 年公司空分设备业务整体增速 25%、20%、20%，毛利率随海外业务占比提升稳中有增。 基于以上假设，我们预测公司 2024-2026 年分业务收入成本如下表： | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|--------|-------------------|-------------------|-------------------|-----------------| | 单位：百万元 | \n收入 | 2023A \n2064.61 | 2024E \n2580.76 | 2025E \n3096.92 | 2026E \n3716.30 | | 空分设备销 ...

23年业绩符合预期，24Q1业绩亮眼。公司 2023年收入增速 64.1%，净利润增 速 25.9%，业绩符合预期。24Q1收入增速 63.6%，净利润增速 28.8%。手术类 产品方面，人工晶状体收入同比增长 41.7%，其中，境外人工晶状体收入同比 增长 127.9%。视光类产品中，角膜塑形镜收入同比增长 26.1%。离焦镜收入同 比增长 247.3%。收入端业绩超预期。盈利能力方面，公司 23年毛利率 76.0%， 较去年同期下降 8.8pp，归母净利率 32%，较去年同期下降 8.2pp。24Q1毛利 率 36.4%，较去年同期下降 7.9pp，归母净利率 33.2%，较去年同期下降 8.2pp。 由于产品结构调整所致，预计随着美瞳产品产能爬坡利润率提升，公司利润率 将持续修复。 盈利预测与投资建议：预计 2024-2026 年 EPS 分别为 3.93元、5.02元、6.65 元，对应动态 PE 分别为 35 倍、28 倍、21 倍。公司后续储备产品管线丰富， 预计 2024 年美瞳产品释放产能，维持"买入"评级。 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 数据来源：Wind 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 20% in the next six months [10][26]. Core Insights - The company experienced significant profit growth in 2023, with a 41.46% year-on-year increase in net profit, reaching 215.17 million yuan [8][10]. - The strategic product matrix is taking shape, leading to a decrease in R&D expense ratio and a reduction in the impact of share-based payment amortization on net profit [2][9]. - The company’s gross margin improved by 1.11 percentage points to 41.66% in 2023, while the net profit margin increased by 3.49 percentage points to 13.06% [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 1.648 billion yuan in 2023, a 3.70% increase year-on-year, with Q4 revenue at 769 million yuan, down 2.17% year-on-year [8][10]. - The revenue breakdown by business segments includes: - Visual inspection equipment: 608 million yuan, up 14.64% [2]. - Visual measurement equipment: 538 million yuan, down 29.02% [2]. - Visual process equipment: 410 million yuan, up 68.01% [2]. - Intelligent driving solutions: 92 million yuan, up 61.94% [2]. Business Development - The company is expanding its product matrix, with new business areas such as domain controllers, PCB, photovoltaic, and semiconductor gradually ramping up [3]. - In intelligent driving, the company has secured two main factory clients for development and one for proof of concept, with mass production orders expected in 2024 [3][16]. - The PCB segment has developed four product series and is anticipated to grow rapidly [3]. - Progress in photovoltaic equipment is on track, with the first generation of copper plating graphic equipment delivered for customer trials by Q3 2023 [3]. Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 274 million yuan, 332 million yuan, and 405 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, maintaining a compound annual growth rate of 23% [10][15]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years are projected to be 1.43 yuan, 1.73 yuan, and 2.10 yuan [10][15].

买入 [2T0a2b4l年e_0S4t月oc1k9In日fo ] （维持） 证券研究报告•2023年年报点评 当前价： 10.06元 建发股份（600153） 交通运输 目标价： 12.90元（6个月） 土储结构持续优化，供应链业务利润平稳 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [T a公ble司_S重u组mm收a益ry显] 著，未来可结算资源充足。2023年公司实现营业收入 7637亿 [分Ta析bl师e_：Au池th天or惠] 元，同比下降 8.3%；实现归母净利润为 131亿元，同比增长 108.8%，主要归 执业证号：S1250522100001 因于美凯龙控制权收购并将其纳入本公司合并报表所产生的重组收益；实现归 电话：13003109597 母扣非净利润为24.1亿元，同比下降34.9%。公司盈利能力总体保持平稳，综 邮箱：cth@swsc.com.cn 合毛利率为4.4%，同比提升0.6pp；净利率为 2.2%，同比提升0.9pp。期末合 分析师：刘洋 同负债2370亿元，较2022年末提升4.2%，可结算资源充足。 执业证号：S1250523070005 电话：18019200867  注重去化 ...

[2T0a2b4l年e_I0n4d月ust2ry1In日fo ] 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（0415-0421） 波士顿动力入局电驱人形机器人， 3 月工业机器人产量同比增长 6.6% 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心  行[Ta情bl回e_顾Su：m本m周ar（y] 4月 15日-4月21日）机器人指数收跌。中证机器人指数下 跌 1.7%，跑输沪深300指数约 3.6个百分点，跑输创业板指约1.3个百分点； [分Ta析bl师e_：Au邰th桂or龙] 国证机器人指数下跌 1.4%，跑输沪深 300指数约 3.3个百分点，跑输创业板 执业证号：S1250521050002 指约1.0个百分点。 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：tgl@swsc.com.cn  波士顿动力入局电驱人形机器人，实现平躺状态原地起身，灵活度优越。波士 顿动力宣布液压 Atlas 退休，并推出全新电驱人形机器人。液压驱动的优点在 分析师：周鑫雨 于输出功率大，力量大，爆发力强，不需要减速器，可承受机械冲击和损伤的 执业证号：S1250523070008 能力强；缺点在于液压系统易漏油， ...

[Table_StockInfo] 2024 年 04 月 15 日 证券研究报告•公司研究报告 当前价：14.74 元 特一药业（002728）医药生物 目标价：——元（6 个月） [Table_Summary 推荐逻辑：在政策鼓励中医药的背景下，公司聚焦特色中成药，有望迎来新的高 ] 速发展阶段。1）止咳宝片为公司核心品种，具有百年品牌积淀，"产能扩张+渠 道变革"有望驱动该品种 3-5 年实现翻倍以上增长；2）公司将皮肤病血毒丸、 降糖舒丸作为继止咳宝片后的重大品种进行培育，有望通过 3-5年把皮肤病血毒 丸、降糖舒丸打造为年营销收入到达 3 亿左右的中药大品种；3）产能扩张有望 带动原料药收入增长一倍。 止咳宝片：百年品牌积淀，产能扩张+渠道变革驱动翻倍空间。独家品种止咳宝 片是岭南中药的代表之一，具有百年历史和众多用户基础。止咳宝片为公司核心 品种，2023 年止咳宝片的销量突破了 10 亿片，同比增长 91%，放量显著，止 咳宝片贡献收入占比进一步提升至 41%。产能扩张+渠道变革，公司将核心品种 止咳宝片作为未来长期经营的目标，力争在 3-5年左右的时间，达到止咳宝片销 售 24亿片的目标，较 ...

受产品结构影响，公司盈利能力有所下滑。2016-2023 年中大力德毛利率和净利率有所 下滑，主要受产品结构影响。2023 年公司毛利率 22.88%，净利率 6.77%，期间费用率为 16.49%。未来随着 RV 和谐波减速器的批量化生产，公司毛利率和净利率有望提升。 数据来源：公司公告，西南证券整理 数据来源：公司公告，西南证券整理 附表：财务预测与估值 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 行业评级 | 跟随大市：未来 6 | 个月内，行业整体回报介于同期相关证券市场代表性指数 -5% 与 5% 之间 | | | 弱于大市：未来 6 | 个月内，行业整体回报低于同期相关证券市场代表性指数 -5% 以下 | | | | | 减速器：行星减速器用于工控自动化行业，其需求与国民经济的景气程度有较强的相关 性，未来随着 RV 减速器和谐波减速器的占比提升，毛利率有望提升，预计设 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 37.60 CNY for the next six months [5][15]. Core Views - The demand for home appliances is recovering, and the industrial sector is expected to regain high growth [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 780 million CNY in 2023, representing an 8.4% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 60 million CNY, down 33.8% year-on-year [5][11]. - The company is positioned to benefit from new energy efficiency standards and the "old-for-new" appliance replacement policy, which is expected to significantly boost demand in the home appliance market [5][9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Growth Rates**: - 2023 Revenue: 780 million CNY, growth rate of 8.4% - 2024E Revenue: 922 million CNY, growth rate of 18.2% - 2025E Revenue: 1,075 million CNY, growth rate of 16.6% - 2026E Revenue: 1,216 million CNY, growth rate of 13.1% [3][11]. - **Net Profit and Growth Rates**: - 2023 Net Profit: 60 million CNY, down 33.8% - 2024E Net Profit: 123 million CNY, growth rate of 106.8% - 2025E Net Profit: 166 million CNY, growth rate of 34.7% - 2026E Net Profit: 211 million CNY, growth rate of 27.2% [3][11]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024E EPS: 0.45 CNY - 2025E EPS: 0.94 CNY - 2026E EPS: 1.26 CNY [3][11]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023 ROE: 2.26% - 2024E ROE: 5.48% - 2025E ROE: 6.69% - 2026E ROE: 7.82% [3][11]. - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: - 2024E PE: 66.88 - 2025E PE: 32.35 - 2026E PE: 24.01 [3][11]. Business Segments - **Home Appliances**: - Revenue in 2023: 480 million CNY, with a growth rate of 30.4% [11]. - Expected growth rates for 2024-2026: 16.8%, 14.2%, and 11.2% respectively [11]. - **Standard Power**: - Revenue in 2023: 146 million CNY, with a decline of 14.3% [11]. - Expected recovery in 2024 with a growth rate of 14.3% [11]. - **Industrial Power**: - Revenue in 2023: 144 million CNY, with a slight decline of 0.2% [11]. - Expected growth rates for 2024-2026: 21.9%, 25.0%, and 20.0% respectively [11]. - **Other Businesses**: - Revenue in 2023: 6.8 million CNY, with a significant decline of 79.9% [11]. - Expected recovery in 2024 with a growth rate of 119.6% [11].

1 数据来源：Wind 艾为电子（688798）2023 年年报点评 公司高性能数模混合芯片、电源管理芯片和信号链芯片拓展产品线。公司对 3大类产品 持续进行产品创新，持续开拓消费电子、AIoT、工业、汽车市场领域。公司根据客户需求及时 进行技术和产品创新，加快产品迭代以及产品性能和成本优化，深化布局工艺平台，现已布局 30 余种工艺，助力打造芯片超市。截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日公司累计发布产品 1200 余款，产 品子类达到 42 类，年出货量超 53 亿颗，营收及产品出货量创历史新高。公司不断探索新工 艺，深化工艺平台建设。完成了质量体系升级，具备车规可靠性验证能力，同时车规级测试中 心在报告期内已开始基建，为开拓工业、汽车市场夯实基础。为响应市场及客户需求变化，提 升产研过程管理能力，公司积极推进产研数字化建设，全面加强公司市场竞争力。随着新兴技 术领域如人工智能、高性能计算等的迅速发展，将为公司提供新的机遇，促进公司牢牢把握高 质量发展为首要任务，发展新质生产力。 图 1：公司前十大股东 ■高性能数模混合芯片 ■电源系列 ■信号链芯片 ■其他 数据来源：Wind，公司公告，西南证券整理 数 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Hold" rating for the company, indicating a cautious approach towards investment in the near term while recognizing potential long-term growth opportunities [38]. Core Insights - The company, Shijia Photon (688313), focuses on the optical communication industry, with a comprehensive business model that includes optical chips and devices, indoor optical cables, and cable materials. The company has established a full-process business system covering chip design, wafer manufacturing, chip processing, and packaging testing [4][52]. - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 750 million yuan, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 47.55 million yuan, a decline of 174% year-on-year. The decline in revenue is attributed to reduced demand for core products and price decreases in the optical chip and device segment [38][25]. - The company has seen a significant drop in gross margin, with the overall gross margin for 2023 at 18.6%, down 26.1% year-on-year. However, there are signs of recovery in Q1 2024, with a gross margin increase to 24.1% [38][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shijia Photon was established in 2010 and went public in 2020. The company emphasizes continuous investment in R&D for optical chips and devices, aiming to master core technologies in the optical electronics sector [52][53]. Financial Analysis - The company's revenue fluctuated from 550 million yuan in 2019 to 900 million yuan in 2022, driven by increased demand in the global access network market and data center construction. However, in 2023, revenue fell to 750 million yuan due to various macroeconomic and industry factors [25][38]. - The net profit for 2023 was a loss of 47.55 million yuan, primarily due to decreased revenue and a significant drop in the net profit margin of the optical chip and device segment [25][38]. Product and Market Analysis - The main business segments include optical chips and devices, indoor optical cables, and cable materials, with optical chips and devices consistently accounting for over 40% of total revenue from 2020 to 2023 [26][29]. - The company has maintained a stable gross margin for indoor optical cables at 14.2%, while the gross margin for cable materials increased to 18.3% due to a higher proportion of automotive cable materials [26][30]. R&D and Innovation - R&D expenses increased from 59.6 million yuan in 2019 to 96.03 million yuan in 2023, with a R&D expense ratio of 12.7% in 2023, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation [37][38]. - The company has achieved significant milestones in developing various optical components and has accumulated 266 intellectual property rights, including 44 invention patents [37][38]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in demand for optical chips and devices, driven by the growth of AI and data center requirements, with projected revenue growth rates of 30% for the next three years [38][55]. - The company is expected to improve its gross margin gradually, with forecasts indicating a rise to 24% by 2026 [38][55].