证券研究报告 2025 年 2 月 25 日 湘财证券研究所 宏观研究 宏观大类资产周报 科创板领涨，国债收益率有所抬升 相关研究： ❑ 大宗商品普遍上涨 1. 《国内股市普遍上涨，人民 币小幅贬值》 2024.10.29 2. 《国内股市普遍下跌，人民 币窄幅波动》 2024.11.11 3. 《权益继续调整，黄金大幅 反弹》 2024.11.25 4. 《国内权益市场大幅调整债 券收益率再破新低》 2025.01.06 分析师：何超 证书编号： S0500521070002 Tel：021-50295325 Email： hechao@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 科创板领涨 2 月 17 日~ 2 月 21 日，国内权益市场普遍上涨，其中上证指数周涨 0.97%、深证成指周涨 2.25%，创业板周涨 2.99%，科创 50 周涨 7.07%。 受益于人工智能的火爆，以 AI产业链为主的科技股表现亮眼，伴随国内 科技行业的估值修复，未来板块的上涨空间仍存。在国内权益市场风险 偏好回升的基础上，我们认为国内权益市场具备持续向上的动力。 ❑ 债券收 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][5]. Core Views - The company has a significant competitive advantage in the parenteral nutrition sector, supported by a well-structured product matrix and ongoing R&D investments [3][4][5]. - The diversified product pipeline is expected to drive sustained revenue growth, with core products showing signs of recovery and new products being launched [4][5][25][36]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been focused on the parenteral nutrition market since its inception in 2002, establishing a strong brand and product differentiation through continuous R&D [8][9]. - It has developed a competitive edge with several products being the first domestic generics or unique offerings in the market [9][30]. Financial Performance - Revenue has experienced fluctuations, but profit has shown steady growth, with a projected recovery in revenue growth starting in 2024 [12][25]. - The company expects revenues of 1.371 billion, 1.644 billion, and 1.991 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.6%, 20.0%, and 21.1% [5][39]. Product Pipeline and Market Strategy - The core product, injection of multiple vitamins (12), has a high market share and is expected to see revenue growth due to successful procurement bids [27][30]. - New products, including pediatric multi-vitamins and various microelement injections, are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth, with several products already approved for market entry [33][36]. Investment Recommendations - The company is well-positioned in a high-barrier market with a strong brand advantage, and it is expected to benefit from ongoing product launches and market penetration [5][37]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.64, 0.78, and 0.99 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.8, 12.1, and 9.6 [5][39].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4][6] Core Insights - The six departments have jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Large-Scale Utilization of Marine Energy," emphasizing the importance of marine energy as a significant green renewable energy source, including tidal energy, wave energy, temperature difference energy, and salinity gradient energy [1][2] - China, as a maritime power with a coastline of 18,000 kilometers and a jurisdictional sea area of approximately 3 million square kilometers, aims to alleviate power shortages in coastal areas and islands through marine energy development, which will also promote the development of related industries [2][3] - The goal is to achieve a marine energy installed capacity of 400,000 kilowatts by 2030, with the establishment of multi-energy complementary power systems for islands and large-scale demonstration projects [2][3] Summary by Sections Policy Overview - The "Guiding Opinions" aim to cultivate new productive forces in the marine sector and enhance the development of marine equipment manufacturing, special materials, transportation, aquaculture, marine corrosion prevention, marine engineering, power distribution, and comprehensive seawater utilization [2][3] Industry Development - China has implemented several large-scale demonstration projects for tidal and wave energy, with operational installed capacities ranking first, second, and third globally for wave energy, tidal energy, and tidal range energy, respectively [3] - The "Guiding Opinions" propose to support the construction of key projects, including a 100-megawatt tidal energy project and multi-energy complementary applications for islands, while encouraging the integration of wave energy with offshore wind farms [3] Investment Recommendations - The large-scale and multi-energy complementary development of marine energy is expected to reduce the development costs of renewable energy projects and improve revenue per kilowatt-hour, suggesting a focus on integrated opportunities in the green electricity sector [4]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Overweight" rating [6][8][19] Core Insights - In 2024, transformer exports are expected to reach 45.75 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.3%, with significant growth in North America and Africa [2] - Complete switch exports are projected at 100.7 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year, with strong growth in high-voltage cabinets [3] - Switch equipment exports are anticipated to total 31.42 billion yuan, marking a 9.2% increase, with notable growth in isolating switches [4] - Electric meter exports are expected to grow to 11.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, driven by strong demand in Asia and Africa [5] Summary by Sections 1. Transformer, Switch, and Electric Meter Export Situation in 2024 - Transformer exports are projected at 45.75 billion yuan, with Asia as the primary region at 22.26 billion yuan, a 31.6% increase year-on-year [2] - Complete switch exports are expected to be 100.7 billion yuan, with Asia leading at 47.63 billion yuan, a 15.7% increase [3] - Switch equipment exports are estimated at 31.42 billion yuan, with Asia contributing 16.19 billion yuan, a 9.9% increase [4] - Electric meter exports are forecasted at 11.43 billion yuan, with Asia and Africa showing strong growth [5] 2. Investment Recommendations - Focus on domestic grid investment growth, particularly in ultra-high voltage projects and procurement by State Grid and Southern Grid [6][19] - Monitor the acceleration of overseas grid construction, especially in developed countries like the US and Europe, as they enter a new cycle of upgrades [6][19]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating [5] Core Viewpoints - The Chinese medicine industry is expected to experience simultaneous price governance and consumption recovery in 2025, presenting both pressures and opportunities [5] - The market performance of the Chinese medicine sector saw a decline of 2.97% last week, influenced by performance expectations and capital outflow effects [1][5] - The valuation metrics for the Chinese medicine sector show a PE (ttm) of 26.07X, down by 0.8X week-on-week, and a PB (lf) of 2.25X, down by 0.07X week-on-week [2] Market Performance - The Chinese medicine sector index closed at 6255.09 points, down 2.97% last week, while the overall pharmaceutical and biological sector index rose by 1.88% to 7506.32 points [1][15] - The performance of individual companies varied, with notable gainers including Qidi Pharmaceutical and ST Jiuzhi, while losers included Huhuwa and *ST Longjin [1][15] Valuation - The PE (ttm) for the Chinese medicine sector is at 26.07X, which is at the 25.35% percentile over the past decade, while the PB (lf) is at 2.25X, at the 4.81% percentile [2] - The valuation premium of the Chinese medicine sector relative to the CSI 300 is 103.62% [2] Supply Chain Insights - The market for Chinese medicinal materials is in a recovery phase, with some medicinal materials seeing increased production affecting short-term supply-demand dynamics [3] - The total price index for Chinese medicinal materials was 255.74 points, remaining stable week-on-week, with a mixed performance across twelve categories [3] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and unique products, particularly those that can leverage price reductions to gain market share [5][8] - Key areas of investment opportunity include companies with high market shares in major categories, and those that can benefit from the upcoming adjustments in the basic medicine catalog [5][8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The coal sector has seen a decline of 4.31% recently, underperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 5.31 percentage points [5] - Domestic and international thermal coal prices continue to decline, with domestic prices at 730 RMB/ton, down 2.67% week-on-week, and international prices for Australian NEWC, European ARA, and South African RB thermal coal at 102 USD/ton, 101 USD/ton, and 91 USD/ton, respectively, showing declines of 5.56%, 4.72%, and 3.03% [6] - The supply of thermal coal remains stable, but demand is expected to be weak due to high inventory levels at power plants and insufficient consumption rates [6] - Domestic coking coal prices have dropped significantly, with Shanxi Luliang main coking coal priced at 1200 RMB/ton, down 7.69% week-on-week, while international prices remain stable [7] - The report suggests that while thermal coal demand is weak, coking coal prices may stabilize as downstream demand improves with the end of holidays and rising temperatures [8] Summary by Sections Market Review - The coal sector's performance over the past month shows a relative return of -15%, -9% over three months, and -20% over twelve months compared to the CSI 300 [4] - The sector's PE valuation is at 10.19 times, at the 48.34% percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.18 times, at the 29.5% percentile, indicating a week-on-week decline in valuations [5] Coal Market Tracking - Domestic thermal coal prices are under pressure, with a noted decline in demand from power plants, which are primarily consuming their existing inventory [6] - Coking coal supply is recovering, but demand from steel mills is weaker than expected, leading to a decline in production rates [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coking coal companies with low valuations and potential for marginal improvement in operations, maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the electronic industry [2][7]. Core Insights - Alibaba announced a capital expenditure plan of 380 billion yuan, which is expected to drive a boom in domestic computing power [4][5]. - The AI development opportunities and competitive needs are likely to lead other internet companies like ByteDance, Tencent, and Baidu to increase their capital expenditures following Alibaba's announcement [5][7]. - The widespread application of DeepSeek is expected to significantly boost the demand for inference computing power, benefiting domestic AI chip manufacturers [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the electronic industry has shown a relative return of 47.51% compared to the CSI 300 index, with an absolute return of 60.10% [3]. Capital Expenditure Insights - Alibaba's capital expenditure for the fiscal year 2024 was 32.93 billion yuan, with a substantial increase in Q4 capital expenditure to 31.77 billion yuan, reflecting an 80% quarter-on-quarter growth [5]. AI and Computing Power - The report highlights that the domestic AI-driven computing power industry is entering a new expansion cycle, driven by significant investments in AI hardware infrastructure [5][7]. - DeepSeek's low-cost domestic model is gaining traction among government and enterprise users, further driving the demand for inference computing power [6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The vaccine market showed a 1.38% increase last week, with the pharmaceutical sector experiencing mixed performance, while the vaccine sector's cumulative decline since the beginning of 2025 is 2.44% [1][6] - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is 35.17X, up 0.5X week-on-week, and the PB (lf) is 1.95X, also up 0.03X week-on-week, indicating a valuation premium of 174.70% relative to the CSI 300 index [3][6] Market Performance - Last week, the pharmaceutical sector index closed at 7506.32 points, up 1.88%, while the vaccine index closed at 12741.38 points, up 1.38% [1][14] - The medical research outsourcing sector saw the highest increase at 11.3%, while the vaccine sector's performance was in the middle range [1][6] Company Performance - Leading companies in the vaccine sector last week included Zhifei Biological, Chengda Biological, and CanSino, while companies like Liaoning Chengda and Hualan Biological performed poorly [2][6] - The vaccine sector's performance is characterized by a high proportion of Me-too products, leading to intense competition [31] Valuation Metrics - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is at the 16.63% percentile over the past decade, while the PB (lf) is at the 2.64% percentile [3][6] - The maximum and minimum PE over the past year were 41.43X and 19.57X, respectively, while the PB ranged from 2.91X to 1.62X [3][6] Industry Dynamics and Company Announcements - Zhifei Biological's new vaccine for multiple diseases has received clinical trial approval, aiming to enhance vaccination compliance [4][28] - CanSino's new combined vaccine has also received approval, indicating ongoing innovation in the sector [4][30] - The overall industry is under pressure, with a notable decline in demand for certain vaccines, leading to a focus on high-barrier, differentiated products [31][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and those that are exploring international markets, as the domestic market faces challenges [31][32] - Long-term prospects for the vaccine industry remain positive due to supportive policies, increasing demand, and technological advancements [31][32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][24] Core Viewpoints - The medical consumables sector experienced a slight decline, with a decrease of 0.07% last week. The overall performance of the pharmaceutical and biological sector was positive, with a reported increase of 1.88% [5][13] - The current PE (ttm) for the medical consumables sector is 34.31X, with a one-year maximum of 56.19X and a minimum of 25.89X. The current PB (lf) is 2.41X, with a one-year maximum of 2.92X and a minimum of 1.65X [6][18] - Recent supportive policies for the consumables industry have been frequent, indicating a strong attitude towards innovation in product development, review, and market promotion. This is expected to enhance the performance of related companies [7][24] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The medical consumables sector reported a slight decline of 0.07%, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector rose by 1.88%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.87 percentage points [5][11] Valuation Metrics - The medical consumables sector's current PE is 34.31X, with a one-year range of 25.89X to 56.19X. The current PB is 2.41X, with a one-year range of 1.65X to 2.92X [6][18] Industry Dynamics and Company Announcements - Haohai Biological Technology reported a revenue of 269,765.79 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.64%, and a net profit of 42,015.41 million yuan, up 0.97% [7][22] - Guanhao Biological's private placement application was accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, aiming to raise up to 50,000 million yuan for working capital [7][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with improving performance in the orthopedic consumables sector and those with rich product lines and high innovation in high-value consumables such as interventional and electrophysiological products [8][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the in vitro diagnostics (IVD) industry [9][57]. Core Insights - The IVD sector continues to show high momentum, particularly benefiting from opportunities brought by AI innovations in diagnostics, such as AI-assisted pathology [6][57]. - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the global IVD market, with a recommendation to focus on immunodiagnostics, particularly chemiluminescence and PCR in molecular diagnostics [6][57]. - The report notes that domestic biochemical diagnostics in China have largely overcome foreign dependencies, indicating a completed localization process [6][57]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Last week, the IVD sector rose by 2.70%, closing at 8199.84 points, outperforming the broader medical and biological sector which increased by 1.88% [3][22]. - The performance of individual companies within the IVD sector showed significant variances, with Anbiping leading at +48.9% and Rejing Bio lagging at -4.9% [4][29]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the IVD sector is 24.28X, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.78X. The PE has increased by 0.64X week-over-week, while the PB has risen by 0.05X [5][32]. - Historical valuation data indicates that the IVD sector's PE is at the 52.28th percentile of its historical range, suggesting a relatively high valuation compared to its past [5][32]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the growing interest in AI applications within the pathology field, particularly the collaboration between Ruijin Hospital and Huawei to enhance diagnostic efficiency through AI models [6][57]. - The report suggests that the industry should focus on high-growth areas such as respiratory disease antigen testing and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) [6][57].