图 5: 中信一级行业市盈率（TTM，则除负值）(截止 12 月 23 日) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 资料来源：Wind, 中原证券研究所 图 7: 2022-2024 年汽车月度销量及同比增速 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 汽车 图 8:2010-2024 年汽车销量及同比增速 (万俩) (%) 3,500 35 30 3,000 25 2,500 20 15 2,000 10 1,500 S 0 1,000 (5) 500 (10) (15) ■汽车销量 =*一同比增速 图 9: 2022-2024 年中国汽车月度出口走势 (万辆) (%) eo 50 45 50 40 35 40 30 30 25 20 20 15 10 10 0 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 3月 =2023 = 2024 -x-2024年出口量同比 2022 资料来源:中汽协,中原证券研究所 请阅读最后一页各项声明 图 11: 2014-2024 年中国汽车出口量及同比增速 (万辆) 600 500 400 300 200 100 2018 2019 202 ...

风险提示：1）新能源汽车产销不及预期；2）行业政策执行力度不及预期；3）行业竞争加剧； 行业月报：人形机器人量产突破，挖掘机、工业机器人产销持续复苏 2024-12- l 总体来看，2023 年工作会议大量篇幅聚焦"高质量发展"，将"科技创新"放到经济工作重 点任务的首位。2024 年我们的经济工作重点任务中，消费及投资的相关内容被放到了经济工 作重点任务的首位，"科技创新"位置后移至第二位。 l 2024 年中央经济工作会议与计算机行业相关的重点内容包括： （1）国产化：2024 年我们对于"基础研究和关键核心技术"关注度前移，整体呈现"加强" 趋势，提出"超前布局重大科技项目"，删除了关于"供应链韧性和安全"的相关内容，转而更 加关注更加前沿和重大的研究与布局。 （2）人工智能：新产业方面，2024 年删除了大量罗列的产业，包括新型工业化、数字经济、 生物制造、商业航天、低空经济、量子、生命科学等，仅重点提及了"人工智能+"，提出"开 展新技术新产品新场景大规模应用示范行动"。 （3）工业数字化：提出"加力扩围实施'两新'政策"，这其中的"两新"就包括了推动新一 轮大规模设备更新。继 2024 年 4 月 ...

Company Overview - The company is a regional leader in the seed industry, with a comprehensive "breeding, propagation, and promotion" industrial system and is one of the first 32 enterprises recognized by the Ministry of Agriculture for this integration [19] - It is a high-tech enterprise and ranks among the top 20 in China's commercial seed market [19] - The company went public on the Beijing Stock Exchange in December 2022, becoming the first seed enterprise in Henan Province to do so [19] - The company's main products include corn, wheat, and peanut seeds, with key varieties such as Qiule 368, Zhengdan 958, and Yuhua 22 being among the top 10 most widely promoted varieties in China [4] Industry Analysis - 2024 marks the first year of China's bio-breeding commercialization, presenting a historic development opportunity for the industry [4] - Corn prices have been declining, leading to increased demand for feed corn, with total corn consumption expected to reach a record high in 2024 [4] - Henan Province is actively promoting policies to strengthen the seed industry, aiming to build a strong seed industry base [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit have been under short-term pressure, with a 28.63% YoY decline in revenue and a 48.88% YoY decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [33] - The company's gross margin was 20.28% in the first three quarters of 2024, down 4.93 percentage points YoY [33] - Corn and peanut seeds are the main revenue sources, with corn seed revenue declining by 82.07% YoY in the first half of 2024 [33] R&D and Innovation - The company has established multiple seed production bases in Xinjiang, Gansu, Hainan, and Henan, and has set up the Qiule Science Research Institute [5] - R&D expenses in the first three quarters of 2024 were 10.04 million yuan, a 47% YoY increase [5] - The company's founder, Zhang Xinyou, is a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and has led the development of several important peanut varieties [5] Investment Recommendation - The company is rated as "Overweight" (maintained) with a target price of 12.16 yuan [2] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is projected to be 43.76/27.20/21.71 times, indicating potential for valuation expansion [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 49/79/98 million yuan in 2024-2026, with EPS of 0.30/0.48/0.60 yuan [128] Market and Competitive Landscape - China's seed market reached 156.3 billion yuan in 2023, making it the second-largest seed market globally after the US [67] - The top five companies in China's seed market account for only 18% of the market share, indicating a fragmented industry with low concentration [70] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing industry concentration and profitability due to its regional advantages and strong R&D capabilities [128]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market experienced a slight upward trend, with significant performance from the automotive, home appliance, and electrical equipment sectors [7][23]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,393.53 points, up 1.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.27% to 10,671.43 points [23][24]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are 14.20 times and 36.95 times, respectively, which are at the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [7][23]. Group 2 - The report highlights that over 70% of stocks in the market rose, with the highest gains seen in sectors such as electrical machinery, transportation equipment, photovoltaic equipment, and engineering machinery [3][23]. - The report notes that the total trading volume on the two exchanges was 13,215 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [7][23]. - The report suggests that short-term investment opportunities should be focused on the automotive, electrical equipment, electrical machinery, and home appliance sectors [7][23].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the company's rating to "Cautious Overweight" [31] Core Views - The company's revenue declined in the traditionally peak season for beer consumption, with Q3 2024 revenue dropping by 7.11% YoY and 13.62% compared to the same period last year [29] - Sales of goods received cash declined for two consecutive quarters in Q2 and Q3 2024, with decreases of 1.28% and 4.51% respectively [8] - The company's net profit margin decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 20.41% in the first three quarters of 2024 due to rising sales, management, and financial expense ratios [9] - Despite declining revenue, the company's gross margin increased slightly to 49.2% in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by a larger reduction in costs compared to revenue [30] Financial Performance - The company's EPS is forecasted to be 2.74 yuan, 2.85 yuan, and 2.94 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.29x, 22.46x, and 21.74x [31][34] - Revenue growth is expected to be -1.20% in 2024, followed by a recovery to 3.20% and 3.10% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [34] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow by 3.74% and 3.27% in 2025 and 2026 after a slight decline of 0.67% in 2024 [34] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable around 49% from 2024 to 2026 [41] Market Data - The stock's 52-week high and low prices are 75.55 yuan and 51.39 yuan respectively [2] - The current P/B ratio stands at 14.48x [3] - The stock's closing price as of December 20, 2024 is 63.90 yuan [22] - The company's market capitalization is 30.926 billion yuan [24] Operational Metrics - The company's diluted ROE reached 62.36% as of September 30, 2024 [6] - Operating cash flow per share was 7.15 yuan as of September 30, 2024 [5] - The company's total and circulating shares are both 483.9712 million [7] - The asset-liability ratio was 66.84% as of the latest reporting period [27] Industry Context - The beer industry is facing challenges with reduced consumption in key scenarios such as dining, late-night snacks, and bars [8] - The company's performance relative to the CSI 300 index shows underperformance in the food and beverage sector [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a potential increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [40]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the engineering machinery sector, with excavator sales showing a year-on-year increase of 17.9% in November 2024, signaling a positive trend in industry demand [102][107]. - The industrial robot production is accelerating, with a year-on-year growth of 29.3% in November 2024, indicating a significant recovery in the automation sector [116]. - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing a sustained upward trend, with key metrics such as completed shipbuilding volume and new orders showing substantial growth [27][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Machinery Sector Performance - The machinery sector saw a decline of 1.49% in December 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.92 percentage points [92]. - The sector's valuation is approaching the mean level, with some growth sub-sectors still below the 20th percentile [86]. 2. Engineering Machinery - Excavator sales in November 2024 reached 17,590 units, a 17.9% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales growing by 20.5% [107]. - The report indicates that the industry has reached a turning point after three years of significant adjustments, with equipment replacement demand beginning to emerge [4]. 3. Robotics - The industrial robot production is on an upward trend, with a notable acceleration in growth rates, suggesting a recovery phase for the industry [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the potential of humanoid robots as a key driver for investment, particularly with the upcoming mass production of humanoid robots by companies like Zhiyuan [48][116]. 4. Shipbuilding Industry - The shipbuilding sector is expected to continue its recovery, with significant increases in completed shipbuilding volume and new orders, indicating a robust market outlook [15][27]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the shipbuilding sector, anticipating accelerated profit recovery as high-value orders from previous years are fulfilled [15]. 5. Railway Equipment - The railway sector is benefiting from increased fixed asset investment, with a growth rate of 25.2% in 2023 and 15% in November 2024, leading to heightened demand for railway equipment [32][19]. - The report suggests that the railway equipment sector will maintain a favorable outlook due to ongoing investment and equipment upgrades [32].

资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -14% -8% -3% 3% 8% 14% 19% 25% 2023.12 2024.04 2024.08 2024.12 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|--------------------|--------------------| | 指数名称 \n道琼斯 | 收盘 \n30,772.79 | 涨跌幅 (%) \n-0.67 | | 标普 500 | 3,801.78 | -0.45 | | 纳斯达克 | 11,247.58 | -0.15 | | 德国 DAX | 12,756.32 | -1.16 | | 富时 100 | 7,156.37 | -0.74 | | 日经 225 | 26,643.39 | 0.62 | | 恒生指数 | 19,720.70 | -0.16 | 1、国家发改委、商务部就《鼓励外商投资产业目录》公开征求意。目录 共包括两部分，一是全国鼓励外商投资产业目录，二是中西部地区外商投 资优势产业目录。 3、多家外资机构发布 2025 年 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with a low opening and subsequent upward movement, facing resistance around 3390 points, while sectors like semiconductors, consumer electronics, optical optoelectronics, and electronic components performed well [7][18] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 14.32 times and 37.32 times respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [18] - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 15,331 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [18] Group 2 - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in sectors such as electronic components, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and software development in the short term [18] - The recent Politburo meeting signaled a commitment to more proactive macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, boosting consumption, and implementing moderately loose monetary policies [18] - The market's future dynamics will likely revolve around domestic macro policies and their effectiveness in maintaining market confidence and stabilizing expectations, with a focus on supporting technological innovation and industrial upgrades [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, emphasizing the potential for growth driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and computing power [23][59]. Core Insights - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference highlights a shift towards "Artificial Intelligence+" as a key focus area, with an emphasis on large-scale application demonstrations of new technologies and products [7][13]. - There is a significant increase in provincial-level policies aimed at enhancing computing power infrastructure, with many regions setting ambitious targets for computing capacity and intelligent computing ratios [18][22]. - The report indicates a strong trend towards domestic production and innovation, particularly in AI and computing technologies, as evidenced by the increasing number of provincial action plans and pilot projects [12][26]. Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference - The conference emphasizes strengthening foundational research and key technologies, with a focus on major technological projects and the removal of previous supply chain concerns [12][25]. - The report notes a shift in priorities, with consumption and investment taking precedence over technological innovation in the economic agenda for 2024 [31]. Local Computing Power Policies - Various provinces have released detailed plans to enhance their computing power, with specific targets such as reaching 10 EFLOPS in Hunan by 2025 and 14.6 EFLOPS in Anhui [19][22]. - The report highlights the importance of intelligent computing, with provinces like Henan leading in intelligent computing ratios, followed by economically developed regions [22][18]. Local AI Action Plans - Numerous provinces have introduced action plans for AI development, aiming to foster a robust AI industry with significant economic contributions, such as Hunan's goal to exceed 100 billion yuan in AI industry scale by 2026 [45][51]. - The report identifies pilot cities for data annotation, which are expected to drive regional AI ecosystem development [51][52]. Investment and Innovation - The report underscores the importance of enhancing investment efficiency and supporting innovative enterprises through multi-layered financial services and patient capital [8][33]. - It notes that the government is likely to increase support for early-stage technology companies, which will benefit from favorable policies and funding [8][33].

Company Overview - Closing price: 36.29 yuan [1] - Gross margin: 23.28% [2] - Total shares outstanding: 868.6447 million, with 854.4959 million in circulation [3] - Market capitalization: 31.01 billion yuan [20] - Price-to-book ratio: 3.02x [33] - Earnings per share (EPS): 1.52 yuan (2022A), 1.46 yuan (2023A), 1.57 yuan (2024E), 1.80 yuan (2025E), 2.05 yuan (2026E) [22][37] - Net asset value per share: 12.01 yuan [34] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 47.72% [35] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue: 3.738 billion yuan, up 27.17% YoY, driving full-year growth [3] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024: 10.912 billion yuan, up 13.05% YoY [3] - Overseas sales grew 17.89%, while domestic sales increased only 0.89% [3] - Sales expenses rose 14.32% YoY, in line with overseas revenue growth [11] - Cost pressures remain high, with a 15.13% increase in costs, outpacing revenue growth [28] - Gross margin declined by 1.39 percentage points to 23.28% [28] Investment Rating and Valuation - Investment rating: Maintained as "Overweight" [36] - Predicted EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026: 1.57 yuan, 1.80 yuan, and 2.05 yuan, respectively [37] - P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026: 23.14x, 20.15x, and 17.70x, respectively [37] - Revenue growth forecast: 10.45% (2024E), 12.86% (2025E), 12.23% (2026E) [22] - Net profit growth forecast: 7.24% (2024E), 14.87% (2025E), 13.81% (2026E) [22] Industry and Market Context - The company operates in the food and beverage sector [13][23][39] - Overseas markets are driving growth, with significant expansion efforts [3][11] - Domestic market recovery remains slow, with minimal growth [3] - Raw material costs, particularly for sugar molasses, are expected to decline, potentially easing cost pressures in future quarters [28] Financial Projections - Revenue projections: 15.000 billion yuan (2024E), 16.929 billion yuan (2025E), 18.999 billion yuan (2026E) [22] - Net profit projections: 1.362 billion yuan (2024E), 1.565 billion yuan (2025E), 1.781 billion yuan (2026E) [22] - Operating cash flow: 1.815 billion yuan (2024E), 1.894 billion yuan (2025E), 2.350 billion yuan (2026E) [31] - Capital expenditures: -1.464 billion yuan (2024E), -1.161 billion yuan (2025E), -1.245 billion yuan (2026E) [31]