分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind，中原证券研究所 -14% -9% -3% 2% 7% 13% 18% 24% 2023.12 2024.04 2024.08 2024.12 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,370.03 | -0.36 | | 深证成指 | 10,649.03 | 0.61 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,945.46 | 0.09 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,729.63 | 0.23 | | 中证 500 | 5, ...

市场数据(2024-12-18) 收盘价(元) 7.02 一年内最高/最低(元) 7.95/4.91 沪深 300 指数 3,941.89 市净率(倍) 2.23 流通市值(亿元) 112.30 基础数据(2024-09-30) 每股净资产(元) 3.15 每股经营现金流(元) 0.43 毛利率(%) 23.81 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) 8.62 资产负债率(%) 29.60 总股本/流通股(万股) 159,971.92/159,971.92 B 股/H 股(万股) 0.00/0.00 个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 分析师：刘冉 登记编码：S0730516010001 liuran@ccnew.com 021-50586281 收入减少，但盈利上升 食品饮料 ——桃李面包(603866)2024 年三季报点评 证券研究报告-季报点评 谨慎增持(下调) 发布日期：2024 年 12 月 19 日 投资要点： ⚫ 收入减少，降幅扩大。2024 年第三季度，公司实现收入 16.27 亿元， 同比降 12.53%，降幅同比、环比扩大 14.61 和 6.2 个百分点。2024 年前三季度，公司实现收入 46.47 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a low opening followed by a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,370.03 points, down 0.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.61% to 10,649.03 points [7][18] - The semiconductor, communication equipment, consumer electronics, and computer equipment sectors performed well, while sectors such as retail, coal, liquor, and oil showed weaker performance [7][18] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 14.32 times and 37.32 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [18] Group 2 - The total trading volume for both markets reached 14,650 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [18] - Recent policy signals from the Political Bureau meeting suggest a more proactive macroeconomic policy aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, boosting consumption, and implementing more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [18] - The focus of market dynamics is expected to shift towards domestic macro policies and their impact on market confidence and expectations, with an emphasis on supporting technological innovation and industrial upgrades [18] Group 3 - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the communication equipment, semiconductor, consumer electronics, and computer equipment sectors [18]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind，中原证券研究所 -14% -9% -3% 2% 8% 13% 18% 24% 2023.12 2024.04 2024.08 2024.12 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,382.21 | 0.62 | | 深证成指 | 10,584.27 | 0.44 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,941.89 | 0.51 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,721.00 | 0.63 | | 中证 500 | 5,8 ...

分析师：陈拓 登记编码：S0730522100003 chentuo@ccnew.com 电力及公用事业 2025 年新能源装机将保持高速增长，积 极拥抱低估值和高分红的红利资产 ——电力及公用事业行业点评报告 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly Outperforming the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [19]. Core Insights - The A-share market showed a slight upward trend on December 18, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,382.21 points, up 0.62%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,584.27 points, up 0.44% [7][8]. - Key sectors performing well included semiconductors, communication equipment, consumer electronics, and electricity, while tourism, retail, food and beverage, and agriculture sectors lagged [18]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 14.24 times and 37.08 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [18]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges was 13,755 billion, above the median of the past three years, reflecting active market participation [18]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - The A-share market opened high and experienced slight fluctuations, with the index facing resistance around 3,393 points during the day [7][18]. - Over 60% of stocks in the market rose, with notable gains in sectors such as semiconductors and communication services [7][18]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that the market will maintain a fluctuating upward trend, driven by supportive macroeconomic policies and ongoing reforms aimed at enhancing investor returns and promoting technological innovation [18]. - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in sectors such as communication equipment, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and electricity [18].

Industry Overview - The new materials index decreased by 1.89%, underperforming the CSI 300 index which fell by 1.01%, indicating a slightly weaker performance in the industry [2][10] - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 3.54%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.55 percentage points, ranking 4th among 30 major industries [12][13] - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose by 1.99%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3 percentage points, with all sub-sectors showing varying degrees of increase [16][17] - The securities index fell by 2.05%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.04 percentage points, indicating a short-term weakening trend [22][23] - The photovoltaic industry dropped by 2.95%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, with a total trading volume of 1226.58 billion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous period [25][27] - The electric power and public utilities sector decreased by 0.18%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.83 percentage points, with stable performance across various sub-sectors [29][30] - The media sector increased by 3.18%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.19 percentage points, with significant growth in AI applications and film sectors [32][33] - The electronics index rose by 0.30%, showing overall stronger performance than the market, with specific sub-sectors like optical and consumer electronics performing well [36][41] New Materials - The new materials sector is highly valued by the government, with a focus on technological innovation to drive development [2][10] - Recommendations include focusing on semiconductor materials with high technical difficulty and low domestic substitution rates, such as electronic special gases and photoresists [2][10] Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing sector is experiencing price increases, particularly in the paper industry, with major manufacturers raising prices [12][13] - The housing market policies are showing positive effects, leading to improved sales in certain regions and stimulating demand in the home goods sector [12][13] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The sector is benefiting from a cyclical rebound in pig farming and steady growth in the pet food segment [16][17] - The price trends in pig farming indicate a potential for recovery in profitability due to reduced feed costs and improved market conditions [19][20] Securities - The securities sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle as macroeconomic conditions improve, with a focus on leading brokerage firms and those with significant wealth management capabilities [22][23] Photovoltaic - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to see a gradual alleviation of vicious competition, with a focus on leading companies in the main and auxiliary material fields [25][27] Electric Power and Public Utilities - The sector is characterized by its stability and defensive nature, with recommendations to focus on strong-performing water and nuclear power companies [29][30] Media - The media sector is expected to benefit from favorable tax policies for cultural enterprises transitioning to corporate status, enhancing profitability [32][33] Electronics - The electronics sector is witnessing rapid growth in AI-related products, with recommendations to focus on AI glasses and headphones as well as the AI computing power supply chain [36][41]

资料来源：Wind,中原证券 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 -14% -9% -3% 2% 8% 13% 18% 24% 2023.12 2024.04 2024.08 2024.12 上证指数 深证成指 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,361.49 | -0.73 | | 深证成指 | 10,537.43 | -0.35 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,922.03 | 0.26 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,697.87 | 0.48 | | 中证 5 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,361.49 points, down 0.73%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,537.43 points, down 0.35% [7][8] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 14.33 times and 37.78 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [18] - The total trading volume on the two exchanges was 15,256 billion yuan, which is above the median of the past three years [18] Group 2 - Key sectors showing positive performance include automotive, energy metals, communication equipment, and liquor, while sectors such as education, commercial retail, cultural media, and software development showed weaker performance [18] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring domestic macroeconomic policies and their impact on market confidence and expectations, particularly in light of recent policy signals aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets [18] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in the automotive, communication equipment, battery, and military industries [18]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the investment rating for the food and beverage industry [1][2][3] Core Views - The food and beverage industry has experienced a significant slowdown in growth since 2020, with further narrowing in 2024 [10] - Despite the overall slowdown, emerging markets such as pre-made meals, baked goods, health products, and tea drinks are showing growth, reflecting consumer upgrading trends [10] - The industry's return on equity (ROE) has been declining, with the overall ROE dropping from 13.73% in the first phase to 8.78% in 2024 [36] - However, certain sub-sectors like liquor and beer have seen continuous improvement in ROE, with liquor's ROE rising from 18.71% to 22.58% and beer's from 8.21% to 14.8% [42] Market Performance - The secondary market performance of the food and beverage sector has been weak, with the sector declining by 51.98% from its peak in 2021 to November 2024 [52] - Only soft drinks and snacks recorded positive returns in the secondary market during this period, while other sub-sectors like meat products, pre-made meals, and dairy products saw significant declines [54] 2025 Industry Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report predicts that the growth center of the food and beverage market will continue to sink, especially for traditional categories [63] - Cost advantages are expected to help companies withstand revenue declines, with a friendly cost environment likely to persist in 2025 [77][79] - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in pre-made meals, baked goods, pre-mixed drinks, health products, snacks, and yeast [83] - Pre-made meals are in the early stages of development, with strong companies expected to maintain high growth levels despite an overall decline in the sector [87] - Baked goods are expected to maintain high growth in the medium term, despite a slowdown in 2024 [88] - The pre-mixed drink market is in a stage similar to the beer market in 2018, with head brands entering a period of market expansion and profit release [88] - Health products are expected to maintain a strong growth trend, both domestically and internationally, with domestic market recovery showing positive signs [92] - The snack industry experienced high growth in 2024, with relatively healthy market and channel conditions [93] - The yeast industry is benefiting from falling upstream costs and is expected to see profit release, with strong growth in overseas markets [93] Key Investment Targets - The report highlights several key investment targets, including Jinzai Food, Ligao Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Angel Yeast, Xianle Health, Anjoy Food, and Bright Dairy [96]