东方金诚宏观研究 3 月新增信贷、社融均超预期，接下来货币政策发力将推动金融总量增速持续加快 ——2025 年 3 月金融数据点评 王青 李晓峰 冯琳 事件：2025 年 4 月 13 日，央行公布的数据显示，2025 年 3 月新增人民币贷款 3.64 万亿，同比多增 5500 亿；3 月新增社会融资规模为 58879 亿，同比多增 10544 亿；3 月末，广义货币(M2)同比增长 7.0%， 增速与上月末持平；狭义货币(M1)同比增长 1.6%，增速较上月末高 1.5 个百分点。 基本观点： 总体上看，主要受企业贷款较大幅度同比多增，以及政府债券持续大规模发行带动，3 月新增信贷规 模为历史同期次高水平，新增社融规模创历史同期新高，均超市场预期，两个主要金融总量增速加快，金 融对实体经济支持力度增强。值得注意的是，3 月用于化债的地方政府债券大规模发行，是带动新增社融 同比多增逾 1 万亿的一个主要原因，显示政府债券融资正在成为稳增长、控风险的主要抓手，也是一揽子 增量政策持续发力的具体体现。 展望未来，美国"对等关税"落地，外部波动骤然加大，无疑会加快国内宏观政策对冲步伐。我们判 断，综合考虑当前外部 ...

Credit and Financing Growth - In March 2025, new RMB loans reached 3.64 trillion, an increase of 550 billion year-on-year, marking the second-highest level for the same period historically[1][3] - The new social financing scale in March was 5.89 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 1.05 trillion, setting a historical high for the same period[2][6] - The growth in new credit and social financing indicates enhanced financial support for the real economy, driven by significant increases in corporate loans and government bond issuances[2][8] Government Bond Issuance Impact - A large-scale issuance of local government bonds for debt replacement contributed to a year-on-year increase of over 1 trillion in new social financing, highlighting the role of government bond financing in stabilizing growth and controlling risks[2][8] - The net financing of government bonds increased by 1.02 trillion year-on-year, reflecting proactive fiscal policies and substantial debt replacement activities[6][8] Monetary Policy Outlook - The current external economic environment and domestic market conditions suggest that the timing for potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is maturing, possibly occurring as early as April 2025[2][9] - The anticipated interest rate cut could be around 0.3 percentage points, while the reserve requirement ratio may be reduced by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion in long-term funds to banks[9][10] Monetary Aggregates - As of the end of March, the M2 money supply grew by 7.0% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month, while M1 increased by 1.6%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month[7][8] - The increase in M1 is attributed to a rise in corporate short-term loans and a recovering real estate market, although the overall growth rate remains low, indicating a need for further economic stimulation[7][8]

东方金诚宏观研究 3 月出口超预期，后续贸易战影响值得高度关注 ——2025 年 3 月贸易数据解读 研究发展部执行总监 冯琳 东方金诚宏观研究 特朗普政府宣布将暂缓对三分之一的美国贸易伙伴实施差异化高关税，但仍将加征 10%的所谓"基线关 税"，而 2024 年美国平均关税税率为 2.3%。这意味着从 4 月开始，美国实际关税税率仍将出现一次大 幅跃升，将对全球产业链形成很大扰动，后期外需整体放缓风险值得高度关注。 根据海关总署公布的数据，以美元计价，2025 年 3 月出口额同比增长 12.4%，比 1-2 月累计同比增 速加快 10.1 个百分点；3 月进口额同比下降 4.3%，比 1-2 月累计同比降幅收窄 4.1 个百分点。 一、3 月出口同比增速显著加快，主要源于上年同期基数偏低，外需韧性较强，以及仍在一定程度 上存在"抢出口"效应。美国大幅加征关税后，短期内除手机、电脑等相关电子产品外，大多数中美双 边贸易已无市场接受的可能性；另外，特朗普政府在全球范围内大幅加征关税，还会拖累外需整体放缓。 以人民币计价，3 月出口、进口额同比增速分别为 13.5%和-3.5%，与同期以美元计价的增速差主要 源 ...

中美贸易摩擦升级，债市整体延续强势 ——利率债周报（2025.4.7-2025.4.13） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 时间 2025 年 4 月 14 日 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心观点 ⚫ 受关税冲击影响，上周债市延续强势。上周一（4 月 7 日），受 美国关税冲击影响，市场避险情绪高涨，宽货币预期升温，债 市延续强势，但周二在中央汇金出手维稳股市影响下，债市转 而走弱。不过，随后美国宣布对华继续加征 50%关税，中美贸易 摩擦进一步升级，叠加资金面宽松，周三、周四债市再度走强。 周五，由于美国对华加征关税幅度过高而无任何经济意义，市 场关税预期有所缓和，债市窄幅震荡。整体上看，上周债市整 体仍偏强，长债收益率继续下行。短端利率方面，上周资金面 延续宽松，带动短端利率大幅下行，且幅度大于长端，收益率 曲线明显陡峭化。 本周（4 月 14 日当周）债市料将呈现震荡格局。上周末公布 的 3 月金融数据大幅超出市场预期，且本周即将公布的 3 月宏 观经济数据或同样好于预期，叠加市场关税预期缓和，这些因 素将对债市构成一定利空扰动。不过，美国后续关税政策依然 存在 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 具体来看： 3 月 CPI 同比降幅明显收窄，当前物价水平为扩内需对冲外部波动提供充分空间 ——2025 年 3 月物价数据点评 研究发展部总监 冯琳 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025 年 3 月，CPI 同比下降 0.1%，上月为下降 0.7%；1-3 月 CPI 累计同比下降 0.1%；3 月 PPI 同比下降 2.5%，上月为下降 2.2%，1-3 月 PPI 累计同比下降 2.3%。 基本观点：3 月 CPI 环比季节性下行，同比降幅明显收窄，主要是受上年同期基数下沉带动，与此同时， 以旧换新政策扩围加力，也对家电、汽车、电子产品价格带来支撑。我们认为，在春节错期效应导致年初 两个月数据大幅颠簸之后，3 月 CPI 同比更能体现当前整体物价稳中偏弱状况。3 月 PPI 环比、同比跌幅 扩大，主因国际原油价格总体继续下跌并逐步传导至国内相关行业，国内需求偏弱拖累下，煤炭、钢铁等 工业品价格亦有所下行，另外，终端消费不足导致生活资料价格跌幅也有所加深。总体上看，当前国内物 价水平稳中偏弱，为扩消费对冲外部冲击提供了充分的空间。 展望未来，4 月外部经贸环境变数骤然加大，部分出口转 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - On April 7, the funding situation tightened marginally, with major repurchase rates rising; market risk aversion continued to increase, and the probability of short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts rose, leading to the continued strength of the bond market; the convertible bond market followed the equity market and declined significantly, with most convertible bond issues falling; overseas, yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally increased, and yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally rose [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Power (2024 - 2035)" proposes to improve the distribution mechanism of land value - added income, and sets clear goals for the construction of an agricultural power at different stages [3] - On April 7, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference to expand the use of special bonds in the agricultural and rural sectors, emphasizing the role of special bonds and putting forward requirements for their use [4] - As of the end of March 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $324.07 billion, up $1.34 billion from the end of February, an increase of 0.42%, and the central bank has increased its gold reserves for five consecutive months [5] - On April 7, People's Daily stated that there is room for adjustment of monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policy has room for further expansion. There are also plans to boost consumption, stabilize the capital market, and help affected industries and enterprises [6] - On April 7, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange released the "Green Bond White Paper", which introduced the overall policy framework and development of the green bond market [7] 3.1.2 International News - Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley said that Trump's tariff policy will push up inflation in the U.S., suppress demand, and weaken the long - term growth potential of the U.S. economy. Stagflation is the most optimistic scenario, and the Fed is in a dilemma [8][9] 3.1.3 Commodities - On April 7, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, with WTI May crude futures down 2.08% to $60.70 per barrel, and Brent June crude futures down 2.09% to $64.21 per barrel; COMEX gold futures fell 1.16% to $3000.20 per ounce; NYMEX natural gas prices fell 4.98% to $3.629 per ounce [10] 3.2 Funding Situation 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On April 7, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 93.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.50%. With 245.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds was 301.7 billion yuan [12] 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On April 7, the central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, and major repurchase rates rose. DR001 increased by 11.99bp to 1.744%, and DR007 increased by 4.46bp to 1.743% [13] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On April 7, due to anti - tariff measures and U.S. tariff uncertainties, market risk aversion increased, and the bond market remained strong. Yields on 10 - year treasury bonds and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds declined [16] - **Bond Tendering**: Information on the issuance scale, winning yields, and other aspects of several agricultural development bonds was provided [18] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On April 7, the trading prices of two industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%, with "H0 Baolong 04" falling more than 21% and "H0 Yangcheng 04" rising more than 220% [18] - **Credit Bond Events**: There were announcements from companies such as South China City, Kunming Urban Construction Investment, and Rizhao Lanshan Urban Construction regarding issues such as court hearings, being included in the list of dishonest executors, and bill overdue [19] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On April 7, the three major A - share indexes fell collectively, and the convertible bond market also declined significantly, with most convertible bond issues falling [20] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Information on the online subscription of Qingyuan Convertible Bonds, the listing of Zhibang Convertible Bonds, and the non - downward adjustment of the conversion price of Kairun Convertible Bonds was provided [26] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On April 7, yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally increased, and the yield spreads between different maturities widened. The break - even inflation rate of 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) increased by 1bp to 2.19% [22][23][24] - **European Bond Market**: On April 7, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased [25] - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds**: Information on the daily price changes of Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on April 7 was provided, including single - day gainers and losers [28]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoint 受月初资金面转松以及避险情绪升温影响，上周债市整体走强，长债收益率大幅下行，短端利率下行幅度小于长端，收益率曲线转而平坦化；本周债市料将延续强势，因美国超预期加征关税冲击全球经济，加剧出口下行压力，叠加房地产市场低迷，市场对基本面偏弱预期加深，且降准降息等逆周期调节政策必要性上升，提升宽货币预期，在市场避险情绪持续高涨、出口预期转弱叠加宽货币预期升温背景下，债市短期内将延续强势[1]。 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **Secondary Market**: 上周债市整体走强，10年期国债期货主力合约累计上涨0.64%，10年期国债收益率较前周五下行9.46bp，1年期国债收益率较前周五下行4.50bp，期限利差明显收窄；周一至周二债市偏弱震荡，周三至周四因资金面宽松、避险情绪高涨而大幅走强[1][3]。 - **Primary Market**: 上周共发行利率债44只，环比减少48只，发行量6999亿，环比减少1229亿，净融资额4792亿，环比减少2127亿；分券种看，国债发行量、净融资额环比增加，政金债、地方债发行量及净融资额环比减少；利率债认购需求整体尚可，国债平均认购倍数3.94倍，政金债3.50倍，地方债20.54倍[9]。 3.2 Last Week's Important Events 3月官方制造业PMI继续回升，制造业PMI指数为50.5%，比2月上升0.3个百分点，非制造业商务活动指数为50.8%，比2月上升0.4个百分点；制造业PMI上升受春节影响消退、战略性新兴产业景气度上升、稳增长政策发力等因素拉动，非制造业服务业PMI回升受促消费政策和AI大模型发布等提振[11]。 3.3 Real Economy Observation 上周生产端高频数据涨跌不一，石油沥青装置开工率小幅回落，半胎钢开工率与前一周基本持平；需求端BDI指数继续回落，30大中城市商品房销售面积大幅回落；物价方面，猪肉价格微幅下跌，大宗商品价格多数下滑，螺纹钢、原油、铜价格均回落[12]。 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation 上周央行公开市场净回笼资金5019亿元；R007、DR007均显著下行，股份行同业存单发行利率继续大幅下行，各期限国股直贴利率均下行，质押式回购成交量明显回升，银行间市场杠杆率继续波动上行[21]。

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report On April 2, the liquidity at the beginning of the month gradually eased, with major repo rates declining. Coupled with the impending implementation of the US reciprocal tariffs, the bond market strengthened. The main indices of the convertible bond market followed suit and closed higher, with most individual convertible bonds rising. Overseas, yields on US Treasuries across various tenors generally increased, and yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies also generally rose [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism", aiming to build a high - level price governance mechanism and improve resource allocation efficiency. Over the past 10 years, price reforms have achieved remarkable results, with 97.5% of goods and services prices determined by the market [3]. - Multiple departments detailed the improvement of the social credit system, including promoting the development and utilization of credit information, expanding and enhancing the public credit reporting system, and improving the credit repair mechanism. The financial regulatory authorities will support small and micro - enterprise financing [4]. - The inter - ministerial joint meeting on reducing enterprise burdens in 2025 will focus on issues such as "four types of irregularities", overdue payments to enterprises, and high enterprise costs, and take multiple measures to reduce enterprise burdens [4][5]. - **International News** - On April 2 (Eastern Time), US President Trump signed two executive orders on "reciprocal tariffs", setting a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and imposing higher tariffs on some. The 10% benchmark tariff will take effect at 00:01 on April 5 (Eastern Time), and higher reciprocal tariffs on countries with the largest trade deficits with the US will take effect at 00:01 on April 9 (Eastern Time). Trump also announced a 25% tariff on imported cars effective April 3 [6]. - **Commodities** - On April 2, international crude oil futures prices rose, with WTI May crude futures up 0.71% to $71.71 per barrel and Brent June crude futures up 0.62% to $74.95 per barrel. COMEX gold futures for June rose 1.41% to $3190.30 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 1.62% to $4.016 per ounce [7]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open Market Operations** - On April 2, the central bank conducted 229.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender basis, with an operating rate of 1.50%. There were 455.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 225.5 billion yuan [9][10]. - **Funding Rates** - Despite the central bank's large - scale net withdrawal, the liquidity at the beginning of the month gradually eased, and major repo rates declined. DR001 dropped 9.27bp to 1.739%, and DR007 dropped 0.03bp to 1.842% [11]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On April 2, due to the easing of liquidity at the beginning of the month and the impending implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, the bond market strengthened. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250004 dropped 2.20bp to 1.7860%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250205 dropped 2.80bp to 1.8170% [14]. - **Bond Tendering**: Information on the tendering of multiple bonds such as 25贴现国债19, 25附息国债06 (re - issued), etc., including term, issuance scale, winning yield, over - subscription ratio, and marginal ratio, was provided [16]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On April 2, the transaction prices of two industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%, with "17 阳光城 MTN001" down more than 40% and "H0 宝龙 04" down more than 49% [16]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Events such as the proposed delisting of AVIC Industry Finance, the update of the rights issue funds distribution by Yuzhou Group, and the written warning to Neijiang Investment Holding by the Shanghai Stock Exchange were reported [17]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On April 2, the three major A - share indices closed higher, and the main indices of the convertible bond market also followed suit. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.20%, 0.16%, and 0.23% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 63.06 billion yuan, an increase of 2.552 billion yuan from the previous trading day [18]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: News such as the listing of Zhengfan Convertible Bond, the proposed downward revision of conversion prices by some convertible bonds, and the early redemption announcements of some convertible bonds were reported [25]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Bond Market**: On April 2, yields on US Treasuries across various tenors generally increased. The 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 4bp to 3.91%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 3bp to 4.20%. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries narrowed by 1bp to 29bp, and the yield spread between 5 - year and 30 - year US Treasuries narrowed by 2bp to 59bp. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year US Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) dropped 1bp to 2.32% [22][23][24]. - **European Bond Market**: On April 2, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased. The 10 - year German government bond yield rose 4bp to 2.72%, and the 10 - year government bond yields of France, Spain, Italy, and the UK rose 3bp, 2bp, 3bp, and 1bp respectively [26]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds as of the close on April 2 were presented, including the daily change rate, credit entity, bond code, bond balance, maturity date, yield, and monthly change rate [28].

Domestic ESG Policy Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued implementation opinions on enhancing the capital market's role in five key areas, including green finance and digital finance, on February 7, 2025[2] - Beijing's Finance Bureau announced a notification on February 27, 2025, to collect sustainable information disclosure pilot enterprises, aiming for the 2024 ESG report to be disclosed alongside financial statements[2] International ESG Developments - The Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) released a second draft for public consultation on labor-related guidelines on February 25, 2025, focusing on transparency in employee treatment and support for work-life balance[3] ESG Index Performance - The Dongfang Jincheng Credit ESG Industry Preferred Index has a cumulative return of 39.65% since January 1, 2019, with an annualized return of 5.81%[6] - The industry preferred index outperformed the benchmark CSI 800 index by 6.18%, while the industry underperforming index lagged by 55.59%[6] Monthly Performance Overview - In February 2025, the ESG industry preferred index achieved a return of 8.70%, compared to 2.66% for the CSI 800 index, with a maximum monthly increase of 4.43% on February 21[7] ESG Risk Events - A total of 22 ESG risk events were monitored in China from February 1 to February 28, 2025, with total penalties amounting to RMB 31,836,000, a decrease of 47.65% year-on-year[10] - The electronic communications industry faced the highest penalties, totaling RMB 31,800,000, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 354.29%[11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Market risk aversion remained high last week, with the COMEX gold futures price breaking through $3,100 per ounce. On March 28, the Shanghai gold futures price rose 2.24% to 722.80 yuan per gram, the COMEX gold futures price rose 2.97% to $3,118 per ounce, the gold T+D spot price rose 2.05% to 720.56 yuan per gram, and the London gold spot price rose 2.04% to $3,084.33 per ounce. Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on all imported cars and geopolitical risks increased market risk aversion, pushing up gold prices. The unexpected rebound of the US core PCE price index in February and the decline of the US stock market further boosted gold prices [1]. - This week, the gold price will fluctuate at a high level. Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy will increase both inflation and economic downturn risks in the US, keeping market risk aversion high and supporting the gold price. However, the release of the US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate in March may ease concerns about economic downturn, support the US dollar index, and suppress the gold price. Overall, the gold price will remain in a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On March 28, the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 722.80 yuan per gram, up 15.84 yuan from March 21; the COMEX gold futures price closed at $3,118 per ounce, up $89.80. The gold T+D spot price closed at 720.56 yuan per gram, up 14.48 yuan; the London gold spot price closed at $3,084.33 per ounce, up $61.54 [3]. 1.2 Gold Basis - On March 28, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - $18.40 per ounce, down $6.60 from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis fell to - 0.58 yuan per gram, down 1.52 yuan [7]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Spread - On March 28, the gold domestic - foreign price spread was 3.28 yuan per gram, slightly down from 3.68 yuan. The unexpected rebound of the US core PCE price index in February increased market risk aversion, boosting the foreign - market gold price more than the domestic - market price. The gold - oil ratio rose slightly, the gold - silver ratio fell slightly, and the gold - copper ratio rose significantly due to the PCE data and market risk preference changes [10]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In the spot market, the gold ETF position increased slightly last week. As of March 28, the SPDR gold ETF's holdings were 931.94 tons, up 1.43 tons. The trading volume of domestic gold T+D decreased by 29.25% to 151,052 kilograms. In the futures market, as of March 18, the net long position of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased significantly. The COMEX gold futures inventory increased, and the SHFE gold inventory remained at 15,675 kilograms [15]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in March unexpectedly returned to contraction at 49.8, while the service and composite PMIs were better than expected. The US consumer confidence index in March dropped to 92.9, with the expected index hitting a 12 - year low. Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars effective April 2. The US Q4 2024 GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up to 2.4%. The US core PCE in February rebounded to 2.79% year - on - year, and personal spending was lower than expected. The long - term inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in March reached a 32 - year high, and consumer confidence hit a more than two - year low [18][19][20]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - Last week, several Fed officials were cautious about inflation and interest - rate cuts. Bostic expected only one rate cut this year. Mousalem was cautious about the impact of tariff hikes on inflation. Goolsbee said that if long - term inflation expectations rise, the next rate cut may be delayed [33]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - The US dollar index fluctuated slightly downward last week. The 25% car tariff policy and the unexpected rebound of the US core PCE price index increased concerns about "stagflation" and economic downturn, causing the dollar index to fall. As of March 28, it fell 0.12% to 104.03 [35]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The yield of the US 10 - year TIPS first rose and then fell last week, with an overall slight decline. Trump's tariff announcement on March 25 pushed up inflation expectations and the yield, but the low consumer confidence index led to a significant decline. As of March 28, it fell 2bp to 1.90% [38]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - The risk in the Middle East increased, and the Israel - Hamas cease - fire was difficult to achieve. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks also faced difficulties, with both sides not wanting a hasty reconciliation and European countries opposing the lifting of sanctions on Russia, leading to a continuous rise in geopolitical risks [42].