Inflation Data Overview - In January 2025, the US CPI increased by 3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.9% and the previous value[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.5%, marking the largest increase since August 2023, surpassing the expected 0.3% and previous 0.4%[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 3.3% year-on-year, above the expected 3.1% and previous 3.2%[1] Contributing Factors - Energy inflation turned positive at 1.0% year-on-year, up 1.5 percentage points from December 2024, driven by rising international oil prices[3] - Food inflation increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, influenced by avian flu and egg shortages[3] - The rebound in used car prices reduced the negative impact on core goods inflation, with used car prices increasing by 1.0% year-on-year, up 4.3 percentage points from December 2024[3] Core Inflation Insights - Core services inflation showed a slight decline, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from December 2024[4] - Housing inflation contributed to the easing of core services inflation, with major rent and owner-equivalent rent growth slowing down[4] Future Outlook - Despite the January CPI rebound, inflation is not expected to enter a sustained upward cycle, as seasonal factors and one-time disturbances may affect the data[5] - The expectation is for a return to a downward trend in CPI over the coming months, although volatility in the deflation process may increase[6] - The likelihood of a rate cut in March 2025 is low, but a potential cut in May or June remains on the table due to anticipated weaker inflation data[8]

作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 时间 2024 年 1 月 26 日 市场政策避险情绪上升，金价继续上行 黄金周报（2024.1.20-2025.1.26） 核心观点 市场对政策避险情绪上升，带动金价继续上行。上周五（1 月 24 日），沪金主力期货价格较前周五上涨 1.28%至 648.90 元/ 克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格上涨 1.36%至 2777.40 美元/盎司； 黄金 T+D 现货价格上涨 1.26%至 645.67 元/克，伦敦金现货价 格上涨 2.55%至 2770.00 美元/盎司。具体来看，上周一（美国 时间 1 月 20 日），特朗普就职宣誓，并颁布了大量的行政命 令，但整体不及市场预期。其中市场最为关心的贸易政策只提 及对加拿大和墨西哥征收关税，但并未提供具体细节；随后在 周三，特朗普表示可能于 2 月 1 日对从中国进口的商品征收 10% 的关税。此外，特朗普还发言称"将要求美联储立即降息，呼 吁全世界效仿"，关税和降息的不确定性推升市场对政策的避 险情绪，加之美元指数大幅下行，支撑上周金价继续上行。 本周（1月27日当周）黄金价格走势料将维持高位。一方 ...

= 乐力金城国际信用评估有限公司 东方金诚宏观研究 | 年初物价走势偏弱 | | | --- | --- | | | ——2025年1月物价数据点评 | | | 研究发展部总监 冯琳 | 事件:根据国家统计局公布的数据,2025年1月,CPI 同比为0.5%,涨幅较上月扩大 0.4个百分点; PPI 同比下降 2.3%,降幅与上月持平。 基本观点:1月 CPI 同比涨幅扩大，主要源于春节错期（2025年春节为1月29日，2024年春节为2 月 10日） 效应下食品、服务价格同比涨势加快,加之近期国际油价、金价较快上行。不过,当月 OPI 环 | 比涨幅低于季节性。表明消费需求不足现象依然比较明显，背后主要是房地产市场持续调整影响居民消费 | | --- | | 信心，以及 2024年人均可支配收入增速下行也对居民消费能力带来一定影响。这为后期政策面加大促消 | | 费力度提供了空间。1 月 PPI 环比跌幅扩大，同比跌幅与上月持平，环比加速下跌主因春节临近对制造业 | | 生产和建筑业活动影响较大,进而对工业品需求端形成下拉效应。当前工业品价格仍处在弱势运行状态, | | 核心原因还是市场需求回暖对工业品价格 ...

乐方金城国际信用评估有限公司 东方金诚宏观研究 | | - 2025年1月PMI 数据点评 | | --- | --- | | 受春节假期临近等影响，1 月宏观经济景气度下行 | 王青 闫骏 冯琳 | 事件: 根据国家统计局公布的数据, 2025年1月, 中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为 49.1%，比 上月下降1个百分点;1月,非制造业商务活动指数为50.2%,比上月下降2个百分点,其中,建筑业 商务活动指数为 49.3%，比上月下降 3.9个百分点，服务业 PMI 指数为50.3%，比上月下降 1.7个百分 点;1月综合PMI 产出指数为50.1%,比上月下降2.1个百分点。 1月PMI 数据要点解读如下: 2025年１月制造业 PMI 指数下行 1 个百分点,再度进入收缩区间,主要是受三个因素影响:一是 李节性因素。可以看到,过去10年中,"春节月"的制造业 PMI 指数"7降3升",其中生产指数下 滑的拖累效应明显。背后是春节临近,员工休假、特别是农民工放假返乡对制造业生产端会形成较强 的下拉效应。可以看到,1月主要行业开工率普遍下行,当月制造业 PMI 中的生产指数为49.8%,较上 月大幅下行 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the convertible bond market in 2024 and 2025 Core Insights - In 2024, the issuance of new convertible bonds is expected to decline significantly due to stringent refinancing policies, with the total issuance dropping to 36.757 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 75% compared to the previous year [6][10] - The convertible bond market is anticipated to experience fluctuations in 2025, with external and internal economic pressures continuing to impact performance, although a recovery trend may begin to emerge in the fourth quarter [1][2] - The report highlights that the market is likely to see a reduction in outstanding convertible bonds by approximately 100 billion yuan in 2025 due to a combination of new issuances and redemptions [2] Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Convertible Bond Market Review - The refinancing policy remains strict, leading to a significant reduction in the willingness of listed companies to issue convertible bonds, resulting in only 41 bonds being issued in 2024, the lowest since 2017 [6][10] - The total issuance scale for 2024 is 36.757 billion yuan, with an average issuance size of 8.97 million yuan per bond, down from 10.17 million yuan in 2023 [6][10] - The report notes that private enterprises dominate the issuance, contributing over 90% of the total, while state-owned enterprises see a sharp decline in issuance [10][11] 2. 2025 Outlook - The expected issuance of new convertible bonds in 2025 is around 60 billion yuan, with a significant number of bonds reaching maturity and being redeemed [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes and credit risks, which could impact the convertible bond market's performance [2] - The sectors expected to perform well include technology innovation, manufacturing upgrades, and high-dividend stocks, driven by domestic demand policies [2] 3. Market Performance - The convertible bond market experienced a significant rebound in the fourth quarter of 2024, following a series of supportive policies that restored market confidence [25][30] - The report outlines four phases of market performance throughout 2024, highlighting the volatility and eventual recovery driven by policy interventions [25][30] - The banking sector's convertible bonds showed strong performance, with an average increase of over 13%, outperforming other sectors [36]

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Market Expectations - The LPR for January 2025 remains unchanged at 3.10% for the 1-year term and 3.60% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations[1] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to the unchanged central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has been stable since January[2] - The net interest margin of commercial banks fell to 1.53% in Q3 2024, the lowest in history, indicating a lack of motivation for banks to lower LPR pricing further[2] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - Economic growth accelerated in Q4 2024, with GDP rising to 5.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, reducing the necessity for immediate rate cuts[2] - The central bank is expected to implement significant rate cuts in 2025, potentially lowering rates by 50 basis points, exceeding the 30 basis points cut from the previous year[3] - Structural monetary policy tools will also see rate reductions to support key sectors of the economy, including agriculture and technology[3] Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Directions - There is a possibility of targeted interest rate cuts for residential mortgages to stabilize the real estate market[4] - The central bank aims to alleviate pressure on banks' net interest margins by guiding deposit rates downward and enhancing bank capital[4] - External factors, such as adjustments in the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, are not expected to significantly impact the central bank's monetary policy stance[4]

Economic Growth - In Q4 2024, GDP growth reached 5.4%, up from 4.6% in Q3, exceeding market expectations[1] - The annual GDP growth for 2024 was 5.0%, slightly down from 5.2% in the previous year[1] - Industrial added value in December grew by 6.2%, compared to 5.4% in November, with an annual cumulative growth of 5.8%[1] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment for the entire year increased by 3.2%, slightly down from 3.3% in the previous year[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods in December grew by 3.7%, up from 3.0% in November, with an annual cumulative growth of 3.5%, significantly lower than the previous year's 7.2%[1] - The real estate sector saw a decline in investment, with a 10.6% drop for the year, indicating ongoing market adjustments[21] Policy Impact - A series of incremental policies effectively boosted economic growth, particularly in Q4, leading to a significant rebound in market confidence[2] - The service sector's production growth improved to 5.8%, a 1 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, driven by enhanced market confidence and consumption policies[2] - The government aims to maintain a GDP growth target of around 5.0% for 2025, with challenges expected from external economic conditions[6] Future Outlook - For 2025, GDP growth is projected to be around 4.7%, supported by counter-cyclical adjustments and the resilience of export enterprises amid trade tensions[6] - Industrial production growth is expected to slow to approximately 4.4% in 2025 due to increased external pressures, although domestic demand may provide some support[11] - Consumer spending is anticipated to recover to a growth rate of about 5.5% in 2025, driven by enhanced consumption policies and support measures[14]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In December 2024, new RMB loans amounted to 990 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion[1] - The new social financing scale in December reached 28,575 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9,249 billion[1] - By the end of December, M2 grew by 7.3% year-on-year, with an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] Group 2: Loan and Financing Trends - December saw a continued decline in new RMB loans, particularly in medium to long-term corporate loans, which only reached 40 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8,212 billion[2] - Residential medium to long-term loans increased by 1,538 billion year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of growth[2] - Total new RMB loans for 2024 were 18.09 trillion, a significant decrease of 4.66 trillion compared to 2023[7] Group 3: Social Financing Insights - December's new social financing of 2.86 trillion marked the first year-on-year increase in four months, driven mainly by bond financing, particularly government bonds which increased by 8,288 billion year-on-year[8] - For the entire year of 2024, total social financing was 32.26 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.33 trillion, primarily due to a 5.17 trillion drop in loans to the real economy[10] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - In 2025, the central bank is expected to adopt a moderately loose monetary policy, with new loans and social financing likely to see year-on-year increases[3] - The central bank may implement 2-3 rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in 2025, which is higher than the 30 basis points cut in 2024[16] - The central bank's reserve requirement ratio is currently at 6.6%, with potential for a 1.6 percentage point reduction in 2025[16]

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices continued to rise due to increased inflation expectations and safe-haven demand, with Shanghai gold futures up 1.19% to 635.46 CNY/g and COMEX gold futures up 2.44% to 2717.40 USD/oz[2] - The significant rise in gold prices was supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia, which heightened market demand for safe-haven assets[2] - The international gold basis turned negative to -29.75 USD/oz, a decrease of 33.65 USD/oz from the previous week, while the Shanghai gold basis rose to 1.46 CNY/g, an increase of 1.47 CNY/g[6] Group 2: Price Trends and Predictions - For the week of January 13, gold prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, influenced by rising inflation and debt risks in the U.S.[3] - The upcoming U.S. CPI data for December is anticipated to show an increase, reinforcing inflation expectations and supporting gold prices[3] - The gold T+D trading volume increased by 20.69% week-on-week, indicating growing market activity[13] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. December non-farm payrolls added 256,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 165,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%[20] - The ISM services PMI for December was reported at 54.1, above expectations, indicating strong economic activity[18] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.68% to 109.66, driven by strong employment data and inflation expectations[34]

Export Performance - In December 2024, export value increased by 10.7% year-on-year, a significant rise of 4 percentage points from November's 6.7% growth[2] - December exports to the US surged by 15.6%, accelerating by 7.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - The overall export growth for 2024 reached a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, up from a decline of 4.7% in 2023[4] Import Performance - December 2024 saw a 1.0% year-on-year increase in import value, rebounding from a 3.9% decline in November[2] - The annual import growth for 2024 was 1.1%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points compared to the previous year[11] - Despite the positive December performance, the import growth remains low, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand[8] Market Trends and Outlook - The global trade growth rate is expected to rise from 3.1% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025, indicating a continued recovery in external demand[6] - The electronics sector, particularly integrated circuits, is projected to drive export growth, with export volume and value increasing by 11.6% and 17.4% respectively in 2024[5] - The forecast for early 2025 suggests a potential slowdown in export growth to around 1.0% due to high base effects from the previous year[6]