Revenue Performance - In June 2025, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a decline from May's 0.1%[1] - Tax revenue increased by 1.0% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in May, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.7%, a larger decline than the previous month's 2.2%[5] - For the first half of 2025, general public budget revenue cumulatively decreased by 0.3%, matching the performance from January to May[7] Expenditure Trends - In June 2025, general public budget expenditure grew by 0.4% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in May[1] - Cumulatively, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.4% in the first half of 2025, a slowdown from 4.2% in the previous period[9] - By June, general public budget expenditure completed 47.6% of the annual budget, slightly below the five-year average of 48.1%[9] Government Fund Insights - In June, government fund revenue surged by 20.8% year-on-year, a significant recovery from the previous month's decline of 8.1%[10] - Cumulatively, government fund revenue decreased by 2.4% in the first half of 2025, with land transfer revenue down by 6.5%[10] - Government fund expenditure in June increased by 79.2% year-on-year, driven by accelerated issuance of special bonds[10] Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting indicated that macro policies will continue to be proactive in the second half of 2025, emphasizing the need for increased government bond issuance and improved fund utilization[12] - Potential measures may include raising the fiscal deficit ratio and increasing the issuance of special bonds to stimulate domestic demand and counteract external economic slowdowns[12]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, aligning with market expectations[2] - Two FOMC members voted against the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut[2] - The Fed's statement acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, indicating a shift from previous assessments[2][5] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Powell expressed concerns about inflation, noting that tariffs are beginning to impact prices, particularly in categories like toys and furniture[3][4] - The June CPI data showed a rebound, suggesting rising inflationary pressures[3] - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at an annualized rate of 3%, significantly recovering from a -0.5% in the first quarter, largely due to a 5 percentage point contribution from net exports[8] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed is expected to implement 1-2 rate cuts within the year, with a higher likelihood of a cut in November rather than September[9] - The effective tariff rate is projected to remain around 15%-16%, which may lead to moderate inflation increases but is not expected to significantly impact overall inflation levels[6][9] - The Fed's decision-making will depend on clearer signals regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic conditions[7][9]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In July 2025, China's manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from June[1] - The new orders index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, indicating a return to contraction territory[2] - The production index was at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, still in the expansion zone but affected by weak demand[2] Group 2: External and Internal Demand Factors - Weak external demand was reflected in the new export orders index, which dropped by 0.6 percentage points[2] - Domestic consumption growth has slowed, influenced by the real estate market adjustments and reduced effectiveness of previous growth-stimulating policies[2] - The service sector PMI was at 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points, with tourism-related sectors performing well but overall service sector affected by real estate cooling[4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The overall economic pressure is increasing, with manufacturing PMI indicating a downturn after two months of recovery[5] - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy support in the second half of the year[5] - Potential policy measures may include interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending to boost domestic demand and counteract external demand slowdown[5]

6月制造业利润由降转增;央行净投放 6018 亿元,资金面明显改善 【内容摘要】7月27日,国家统计局数据显示,6月制造业利润由降转增;7月25日,央行 开展 7893 亿元 7 年进回购操作,当日净投放 6018 亿元,资金面明显改善,DR001 大幅下行, 债市有所修复;权益市场温和调整,转债市场主要指数继续上扬,转债个券多数上涨;海外方 面,美国与欧盟达成关税协定,实行统一15%关税税率,各期限美债收益率普遍下行,主要欧 洲经济体 10年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 (一) 国内要闻 | 【证监会系统党的建设暨 2025年年中工作会议提出全力巩固市场回稳向好态势】证监会系统 | | --- | | 党的建设暨 2025年年中工作会议 7 月 24日召开。会议提出，全力巩固市场回稳向好态势,深 | | 化改革激发多层次市场活力,从资产端、资金端进一步固本培元,持续提升监管执法效能,精 | | 准防控资本市场重点领域风险,稳步推进高水平制度型开放,增强资本市场重大问题研究的权 | | 威性和影响力,更好服务国家战略和监管需要。 | | 【今年以来财政运行总体平稳 财政支出力度持续加大】财政部 7 月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 28, at the end of the month, the central bank conducted continuous large - scale net injections, resulting in a balanced and slightly loose capital market. The bond market continued its upward trend, while the convertible bond market adjusted, with most convertible bond issues declining. Yields on US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally increased, and yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally decreased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: - On July 28, China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden, aiming to translate the important consensus of the two heads of state into specific policies and actions [3]. - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the national cumulative new tax and fee cuts are expected to reach 10.5 trillion yuan, and export tax rebates are expected to exceed 9 trillion yuan [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and promoting high - quality development of key industrial chains [4]. - The national childcare subsidy program was announced. Starting from January 1, 2025, families with children under 3 years old can receive an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child [4]. - **International News**: The US Treasury Department expects net borrowing of 1.007 trillion US dollars from July to September this year, an increase of more than 450 billion US dollars from the previous forecast, mainly due to the impact of the debt ceiling. It also expects net borrowing of 590 billion US dollars from October to December [6]. - **Commodities**: On July 28, WTI September crude oil futures rose 2.38% to 66.71 US dollars per barrel, Brent September crude oil futures rose 2.34% to 70.04 US dollars per barrel, COMEX August gold futures fell 0.77% to 3,310 US dollars per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 2.04% to 3.032 US dollars per ounce [7]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations**: On July 28, the central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate, quantity - tender method, with a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan [9]. - **Funding Rates**: On July 28, due to the central bank's continuous large - scale net injections, major repurchase rates declined. DR001 dropped 5.53bp to 1.462%, and DR007 dropped 7.17bp to 1.581% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds**: - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 28, the bond market continued its upward trend. By 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 fell 1.75bp to 1.7150%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250210 fell 2.75bp to 1.8000% [13]. - **Bond Tendering**: Information on the tendering of several bonds such as 25Nongfa Discount 06 (Add 3) and 25Guokai 06 (Add 25) was provided, including maturity, issuance scale, winning yield, etc. [14]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - market Transaction Abnormalities**: On July 28, the transaction prices of 5 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. For example, "24Yuanhang Holdings PPN001 (Restructuring)" fell more than 13%, and "H1Bidi 01" rose more than 350% [14]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies announced various events, such as Jingfeng Pharmaceutical failing to repay a 117 - million - yuan loan, Zhengbang Technology's subsidiary entering pre - reorganization, etc. [15]. - **Convertible Bonds**: - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 28, the three major A - share stock indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising 0.12%, 0.44%, and 0.96% respectively. The major convertible bond indexes fell, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index falling 0.70%, 0.62%, and 0.81% respectively [16]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Taifu Convertible Bond announced not to redeem early and will not choose early redemption if the early - redemption clause is triggered again within the next three months [18]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **US Bond Market**: On July 28, the yield of the 2 - year US Treasury bond remained unchanged at 3.91%, while yields on other maturities generally increased. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose 2bp to 4.42% [21]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 28, the yield of the 10 - year UK government bond rose 3bp, while yields on 10 - year government bonds of other major European economies generally decreased. For example, the yield of the 10 - year German government bond fell 3bp to 2.69% [24]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - funded US - dollar Bonds**: As of the close on July 28, price changes of various Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds were provided, including daily changes, credit entities, bond balances, etc. [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - On July 24, the funding situation tightened further, with major repo rates rising significantly. Affected by the rising expectation of industrial product price increases, the stock market rally, and the tightened funding situation, the bond market weakened further. The convertible bond market followed the equity market higher, with most convertible bond issues rising. Yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally increased, and yields on 10-year government bonds in major European economies generally rose significantly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market News Domestic News - President Xi Jinping met with European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen, emphasizing that China and the EU should strengthen communication, enhance mutual trust, and deepen cooperation at this critical historical juncture [3]. - The central bank and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued an opinion to increase financial resource input in key areas of rural revitalization and improve basic financial services in rural areas [3]. - The draft amendment to the Price Law was open for public comment, mainly covering three aspects: improving government pricing, clarifying the criteria for identifying unfair price behaviors, and improving legal liability for price violations [5]. - As of now, 735 billion yuan of the central budget - investment for 2025 has been basically allocated, focusing on supporting projects in multiple fields [5]. - The central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on July 25, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan [5]. International News - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged, waiting for the clarity of U.S. tariff policies. The market is now focused on whether the bank will continue to cut interest rates in the future [6]. - In July, the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction, but the recovery in the service sector offset the decline in manufacturing. The overall business activity expanded at the fastest pace since December last year [7]. Commodities - On July 24, international crude oil futures prices turned up, and international natural gas prices rose slightly. WTI September crude oil futures rose 1.19% to $66.03 per barrel, Brent September crude oil futures rose 0.98% to $69.18 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.74% to $3372.50 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 1.63% to $3.115 per ounce [8]. Funding Situation Open Market Operations - On July 24, the central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, there was a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan [10]. Funding Rates - On July 24, due to consecutive net withdrawals by the central bank, the funding situation tightened further, and major repo rates rose significantly. DR001 rose 28.05 basis points to 1.652%, and DR007 rose 9.33 basis points to 1.576% [11]. Bond Market Dynamics Interest - Bearing Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 24, affected by the rising expectation of industrial product price increases, the stock market rally, and the tightened funding situation, the bond market weakened further. By 20:00, the yield on the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250011 rose 3.40 basis points to 1.7400%, and the yield on the 10 - year CDB active bond 250210 rose 4.80 basis points to 1.8350% [14]. - **Bond Tendering Results**: Multiple bonds were tendered on July 24, with details such as issue scale, winning yield, and subscription multiples provided [16]. Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 24, the trading price of one industrial bond, "HO Zhongnan 02," deviated by more than 10%, falling by more than 28% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events**: There were various credit - related events, including the invalidation of a bondholder meeting, companies being investigated by the CSRC, a company being included in the list of dishonest被执行人, delayed rating disclosures, rating withdrawals, and a forced interest - payment event [19][20]. Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 24, the three major A - share indexes showed mixed performances, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 0.65%, 1.21%, and 1.50% respectively. The convertible bond market followed the equity market higher, with major convertible bond indexes rising. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 83.63 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.772 billion yuan from the previous trading day [21]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On July 25, Guanghe Convertible Bonds will be listed. On July 24, some convertible bonds announced proposals to lower the conversion price or were expected to trigger conditions for lowering the conversion price, and some were about to meet the conditions for early redemption [22][23][24]. Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Treasury Market**: On July 24, yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally increased. The yield on 2 - year U.S. Treasuries rose 3 basis points to 3.91%, and the yield on 10 - year U.S. Treasuries rose 3 basis points to 4.43%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread remained unchanged at 52 basis points, and the 5/30 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed by 4 basis points to 98 basis points. The 10 - year U.S. inflation - protected Treasury (TIPS) break - even inflation rate rose 8 basis points to 2.45% [27][28][29]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 24, the yield on 10 - year UK government bonds fell 2 basis points, while yields on 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies generally rose significantly. Yields on 10 - year government bonds in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain rose by 9, 10, 11, and 11 basis points respectively [30]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds**: As of the close on July 24, price changes of Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds were provided, including daily changes, credit entities, bond codes, bond balances, maturity dates, yields, and monthly changes [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 24, the funding situation tightened further, with major repo rates rising significantly. Affected by the increasing expectation of industrial product price hikes, the stock market rally, and the tightened funding situation, the bond market weakened further. The convertible bond market followed the equity market higher, with most convertible bond issues rising. Yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally increased, and yields on 10 - year government bonds in major European economies mostly rose significantly [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - President Xi Jinping met with European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen, emphasizing the importance of China - EU relations and the principles for future development [3]. - The central bank and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued an opinion to increase financial resource input in key areas of rural revitalization and improve rural basic financial services [4]. - The draft amendment to the Price Law was open for public consultation, covering aspects such as improving government pricing, clarifying the criteria for identifying improper price behaviors, and strengthening legal responsibilities for price violations [6]. - As of July 24, 735 billion yuan of central budget - internal investment in 2025 had been basically allocated, focusing on multiple fields such as modern industrial systems and infrastructure [7]. - The central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on July 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased roll - overs [8]. 3.1.2 International News - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged, waiting for the clarity of U.S. tariff policies. Since June 2024, it has cut interest rates eight times [9]. - In July, the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI fell into contraction again, but the recovery of the service sector offset the decline. The composite PMI index rose, but concerns about the business environment persisted [10]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On July 24, international crude oil futures prices turned up, and international natural gas prices rose slightly. COMEX gold futures fell [11]. 3.2 Funding Situation 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On July 24, the central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan due to 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities [13]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On July 24, due to continuous net withdrawals by the central bank, the funding situation tightened further, and major repo rates rose significantly. For example, DR001 rose 28.05bp to 1.652%, and DR007 rose 9.33bp to 1.576% [14]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 24, affected by multiple factors, the bond market weakened further. Yields on the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 and the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active issue 250210 increased [17]. - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Various bonds were tendered on July 24, with details on issuance scale, winning yields, and subscription multiples provided [18]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary - market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 24, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0 Zhongnan 02", deviated by more than 10%, falling by over 28% [19]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple events occurred, including some companies being included in the list of dishonest被执行人, delayed rating report disclosures, rating withdrawals, forced interest - payment events, ineffective bondholder meetings, and companies being investigated by the CSRC [20]. 3.3.3 Equity and Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 24, the three major A - share stock indexes had mixed performances, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3600 points. The convertible bond market followed the equity market higher, with most convertible bond issues rising [21]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On July 25, Guanghe Convertible Bond was listed. On July 24, some convertible bonds announced proposals to lower conversion prices or were expected to trigger conditions for lower conversion prices, and some were about to meet early redemption conditions [24]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 24, yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally increased, and the yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries remained unchanged, while the spread between 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries narrowed [25][26]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 24, the yield on the 10 - year British government bond declined, while yields on 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies generally rose significantly [28]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds**: As of the close on July 24, price changes of various Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds were provided, including those of companies like Sunac China and Lenovo Group [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 23, the capital market tightened significantly, with major repurchase rates rising, the bond market remaining weak, the convertible bond market's major indices showing mixed performance, and most convertible bond issues declining. Yields on US Treasuries across various maturities generally increased, while the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. - There were multiple important domestic and international news events, including the confirmation of the start date for Hainan Free - Trade Port's customs closure, upcoming China - US economic and trade talks, and a US - Japan trade agreement [3][6]. - Commodity prices showed different trends, with international crude oil futures prices continuing to fall and international natural gas prices turning up [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - Hainan Free - Trade Port's customs closure is set to start on December 18, 2025. The coverage of "zero - tariff" goods will expand from 1900 tariff items to about 6600, accounting for 74% of all commodity tariff items, a nearly 53 - percentage - point increase [3]. - China - US economic and trade talks will be held in Sweden from July 27 - 30, following the consensus of the two heads of state's phone call on June 5 [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will improve the coordinated development mechanism between state - owned and private enterprises and address cut - throat competition [4]. - Bank deposit rates continued to decline in June, with medium - and long - term rates entering the "1 era", and the average 3 - month deposit rate dropping 5.5BP from the previous month [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the underwriting amount of science and technology innovation bonds reached 381.391 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 56.5%. There were 40 securities companies acting as lead underwriters for green bonds, underwriting 71 bonds (or products) worth 59.444 billion yuan [5]. - In June, the newly - filed asset - backed special plans (ABS) reached 100, with a scale of 92.341 billion yuan. The top three ABS underlying assets in terms of newly - filed scale were financial leasing receivables, accounts receivable, and small - loan receivables [5]. 3.1.2 International News - The US and Japan reached a trade agreement on July 23, with a 15% tariff rate on Japanese goods and Japan planning to invest $550 billion in the US. The US may also cooperate with Japan on LNG [6]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On July 23, WTI September crude futures fell 0.09% to $65.25 per barrel, Brent September crude futures fell 0.13% to $68.51 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 1.28% to $3399.50 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 0.42% to $3.089 per ounce [7]. 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On July 23, the central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method. With 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net capital withdrawal for the day was 369.6 billion yuan [9]. 3.2.2 Capital Rates - On July 23, due to consecutive net withdrawals by the central bank, the capital market tightened significantly, and major repurchase rates rose. For example, DR001 rose 5.66bp to 1.371%, and DR007 rose 0.85bp to 1.483% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Bearing Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 23, the stock market rose, the commodity market was strong, inflation bottoming expectations were strengthened, and the capital market tightened, causing the bond market to continue weakening. By 20:00, the yield on the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 rose 1.40bp to 1.7060%, and the yield on the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250210 rose 0.95bp to 1.7870% [12]. - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Multiple bonds were tendered on July 23, with different issuance scales, winning yields, and multiples [14]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 23, no credit bond transaction prices deviated by more than 10%. - **Credit Bond Events**: Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum cancelled the issuance of "25 Shaanxi Yanchang MTN001 (Science and Technology Innovation Bond)"; Moody's adjusted the outlook of Li & Fung from "stable" to "negative"; Liuguang Co., Ltd.'s shareholders planned to reduce their holdings; Fujian Sunshine Group failed to disclose its semi - annual report on time [15]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On July 23, the A - share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.01%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index falling 0.37% and 0.01% respectively. The convertible bond market's major indices showed mixed performance, with most convertible bond issues declining [16]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Longjian Co., Ltd. received approval from the CSRC to issue convertible bonds; some convertible bonds announced changes in conversion prices, early redemptions, or non - redemptions [18][24]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **US Bond Market**: On July 23, yields on US Treasuries across various maturities generally increased, the 2/10 - year yield spread remained unchanged, the 5/30 - year yield spread narrowed by 1bp, and the 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury (TIPS) break - even inflation rate decreased by 2bp [20][21][22]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 23, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends, with Germany's rising 1bp, and the UK's rising 7bp, while France, Italy, and Spain's remained unchanged [23]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds**: As of the close on July 23, prices of Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds showed different changes [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 22, the liquidity remained loose, with major repo rates continuing to decline; the rising risk appetite drove up the stock market and commodities, while the bond market remained weak; the main indices of the convertible bond market rose collectively, and most convertible bond issues saw gains; yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally declined, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally decreased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that the foreign exchange market has been operating smoothly and showing strong resilience this year. From January to May, equity - type inbound direct investment had a net inflow of $31.1 billion, a 16% year - on - year increase, and inbound securities investment had a net inflow of about $33 billion, reversing the net outflow trend in the second half of last year [3]. - As of the end of June, the investment and operation scale of the endowment insurance fund reached 2.55 trillion yuan. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will continue to expand the entrusted investment scale of the basic endowment insurance fund and regulate its information reporting and disclosure systems [3]. - The central bank reported that at the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 268.56 trillion yuan, a 7.1% year - on - year increase, with a 12.92 - trillion - yuan increase in the first half of the year. The balance of loans to enterprises and institutions was 182.47 trillion yuan, an 8.6% year - on - year increase, with an 11.5 - trillion - yuan increase in the first half of the year [4]. - As of the end of June, overseas institutions held 4.23 trillion yuan of bonds in the inter - bank market, accounting for about 2.5% of the total custody volume. In June, one new overseas institutional entity entered the inter - bank bond market, and there were 1,170 overseas institutional entities in total by the end of June [5]. - The cumulative issuance scale of panda bonds has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, and foreign capital holds nearly a quarter of them. Recently, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank successfully issued 2 - billion - yuan 2 - year panda bonds in the inter - bank bond market [5]. 3.1.2 International News - Trump claimed that the U.S. and the Philippines reached a trade agreement, with the U.S. imposing a 19% tariff on the Philippines, and the Philippines opening its market to the U.S. with zero tariffs. However, the Philippine government has not confirmed this [6]. - Due to the ruling coalition's defeat in the Senate election, concerns about Japan's fiscal outlook intensified, leading to a decline in the Japanese government bond market. Calls for Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru to resign within the Liberal Democratic Party grew louder. On July 22, the prices of 20 - year and 40 - year Japanese government bonds fell, and the yen depreciated against the dollar by about 0.2% [7]. - On July 22, WTI August crude oil futures fell 1.47% to $66.21 per barrel, Brent September crude oil futures fell 0.89% to $68.59 per barrel, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.81% to $3.258 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations - On July 22, the central bank conducted 214.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 342.5 - billion - yuan reverse repurchases and 120 - billion - yuan treasury cash time deposits maturing on the same day, the net capital withdrawal was 247.7 billion yuan [10]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On July 22, the liquidity remained loose, and major repo rates continued to decline. DR001 dropped 4.65bp to 1.314%, and DR007 dropped 1.60bp to 1.474% [11]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - On July 22, the rising risk appetite drove up the stock market and commodities, while the bond market remained weak. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active issue 250011 rose 1.50bp to 1.6920%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250210 rose 2.20bp to 1.7775% [13]. - Regarding bond tenders, the 2 - year 25Guokai02 (Increment 6) had a winning yield of 1.4933%, the 5 - year 25Guokai08 (Increment 10) had a winning yield of 1.5673%, and the 10 - year 25Guokai15 (Increment 9) had a winning yield of 1.6939% [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On July 22, the trading prices of 5 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H1 Bidi 03" fell by more than 28%, "H1 Bidi 04" fell by more than 22%, "H0 Yangcheng 04" rose by more than 96%, "H0 Zhongjun 02" rose by more than 357%, and "H1 Bidi 01" rose by more than 400% [15]. - There were multiple credit bond events, such as Shimao Group's overseas debt restructuring taking effect on July 21, and several companies canceling bond issuances or facing rating changes [18]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On July 22, the three major A - share indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose 0.62%, 0.84%, and 0.61% respectively, with a total trading volume of 1.93 trillion yuan. The main indices of the convertible bond market also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rising 0.48%, 0.38%, and 0.64% respectively [17]. - There were multiple convertible bond - related events, such as JCHX Mining's convertible bond issuance being approved, Lanfan Convertible Bond expecting to trigger a downward revision of the conversion price, and some convertible bonds announcing early redemptions or non - redemptions [24]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - On July 22, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally declined. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 2bp to 3.83%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 3bp to 4.35%. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries narrowed by 1bp to 52bp, and the yield spread between 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries narrowed by 1bp to 102bp [21][22]. - On July 22, yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally declined. The 10 - year German government bond yield dropped 3bp to 2.59%, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in France, Italy, Spain, and the UK also decreased [25]. - As of the close on July 22, the prices of some Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds changed. For example, the bonds of Sunac China rose 4.1%, while those of Li Auto fell 1.8% [27].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the bond market oscillated with a favorable bias, and the yield curve shifted downward in a steepening manner. Although the trade, financial, and macroeconomic data for June were generally positive, the weak indicators on the demand - side such as real estate, investment, and consumption limited the negative impact on the bond market. The central bank increased its support during the tax - payment period, leading the money market to turn from tight to loose. The short - end bond yields declined and transmitted to the long - end, resulting in a slight decline in long - end yields [1]. - This week (the week of July 21), the bond market is expected to continue its favorable oscillation. As it enters an economic data vacuum period and the market becomes less sensitive to fundamentals and the stock market, it may focus on the money market and monetary policy signals. With the central bank's clear intention to support the money market, the money market is expected to remain loose after the tax - payment period, driving short - end yields down further and transmitting to the long - end [1]. Group 3: Market Review Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market oscillated within a narrow range, and long - bond yields declined slightly. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.02% cumulatively. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.01bp, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 2.12bp compared to the previous Friday, with the term spread widening significantly [3]. - On July 14, the bond market was weak in the morning due to the tightening money market and rising stock market, but recovered slightly in the afternoon. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally increased, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.73bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract falling 0.08% [3]. - On July 15, the bond market strengthened as the weak demand - side indicators in June's economic data, the central bank's over - renewal of outright reverse repurchases, and the falling stock market. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally decreased, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropping 1.69bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rising 0.18% [3]. - On July 16, the bond market oscillated within a narrow range. Short - end yields declined due to eased money - market pressure, while medium - and long - end yields rose due to continuous government bond supply. Most yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds increased, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.60bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract falling 0.05% [3]. - On July 17, the bond market oscillated strongly. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds fluctuated slightly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.13bp, and most 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts rising 0.02% [3]. - On July 18, the bond market continued to oscillate. The short - end performed strongly and the long - end weakly due to the central bank's solicitation of opinions on canceling the freeze of collateral for bond repurchases. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.22bp, and most 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts fell 0.08% [3]. Primary Market - Last week, 85 interest - rate bonds were issued, 15 more than the previous week. The issuance volume was 656.5 billion yuan, 33.5 billion less than the previous week, and the net financing was 143.3 billion yuan, 319.1 billion less than the previous week. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased, while those of local government bonds decreased [11]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. Five Treasury bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 3.24 times; 20 policy - bank bonds with an average of 4.00 times; and 60 local government bonds with an average of 26.47 times [12]. Group 4: Important Events - In June, the export growth rate rebounded unexpectedly. The export value in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year, 1 percentage point higher than in May. The decline in exports to the US narrowed by 18.4 percentage points. The import value increased by 1.1% year - on - year, 4.5 percentage points faster than in May. The decline in imports from the US narrowed by 2.6 percentage points [13]. - The financial data in June was strong. New RMB loans in June reached 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion year - on - year. The new social financing scale was 4.1993 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion year - on - year. At the end of June, M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous month, and M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 2.3 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous month [13]. - The macroeconomic growth momentum in the first half of the year was relatively strong. The GDP in the second quarter increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the GDP in the first half increased by 5.3% year - on - year, 0.3 percentage points faster than the whole of 2024. In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in the first half was 6.4%. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in June was 4.8%, and the cumulative increase in the first half was 5.0%. The fixed - asset investment from January to June increased by 2.8% year - on - year [14]. Group 5: Real Economy Observation - Most high - frequency data on the production side increased last week, including blast furnace operating rate, petroleum asphalt unit operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and daily pig iron output. On the demand side, the BDI index continued to rise, while the CCFI index continued to decline. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to fall [15]. - In terms of prices, pork prices fluctuated slightly upward, while most commodity prices fell, including crude oil and copper prices, and the rebar price decreased slightly [15]. Group 6: Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net injection of 1.2011 trillion yuan into the open market last week [25]. - Last week, R007 declined slightly, and DR007 increased. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks fluctuated upward [26].