Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On June 3, the liquidity situation was balanced with a slight easing trend. The bond market showed a weak and volatile performance overall, while the convertible bond market continued to rise following the equity market. US Treasury yields generally increased across various tenors, and the 10-year government bond yields of major European economies mostly declined [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: The "Regulations on the Sharing of Government Affairs Data" will be implemented on August 1, 2025. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, dropping 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. The central bank conducted a standing lending facility operation of 14.01 billion yuan in May. The total social logistics volume in the first four months increased by 5.6% year-on-year. Five departments jointly launched the new energy vehicle campaign in rural areas [4][5][6]. - **International News**: The number of job openings in the US in April unexpectedly increased. The OECD downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.9%. Lee Jae-myung won the South Korean presidential election [7][8][10]. - **Commodity News**: International crude oil and natural gas futures prices rose on June 3 [11]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open Market Operations**: On June 3, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 454.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 830 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds was 375.5 billion yuan [13]. - **Funding Rates**: On June 3, the funding situation was balanced with a slight easing trend, and major repurchase rates declined. DR001 decreased by 6.86bp to 1.414%, and DR007 decreased by 11.49bp to 1.550% [14]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest Rate Bonds**: - **Cash Bond Yield Trends**: On June 3, the increase in the issuance price of negotiable certificates of deposit dampened market sentiment, and the bond market showed a weak and volatile performance. The yield of the 10-year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose by 0.10bp to 1.6760%, and the yield of the 10-year CDB bond active bond 250210 rose by 0.45bp to 1.7170% [17]. - **Bond Tendering**: Information on the tendering of three agricultural development bonds was provided, including terms, issuance scales, winning yields, and other details [18]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On June 3, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0 Baolong 04", deviated by more than 10%, with a gain of over 1200% [18]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple credit bond events were reported, including bond resumptions, holder meetings, credit rating adjustments, and debt settlements [19]. - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: - **Equity Market**: On June 3, the three major A-share indices closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose by 0.43%, 0.16%, and 0.48% respectively, with a total trading volume of 1.16 trillion yuan [20]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: The convertible bond market continued to rise following the equity market. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.29%, 0.28%, and 0.32% respectively. Most convertible bond issues closed higher [20]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On June 3, Nenghui Convertible Bond announced that it would not adjust the conversion price downward, and Kesun Convertible Bond announced that it would not choose to adjust the conversion price downward if the downward adjustment conditions were triggered again within the next six months [22]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **US Bond Market**: On June 3, the 10-year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 4.46%, while yields of other tenors generally increased. The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries narrowed by 2bp to 50bp [23][24]. - **European Bond Market**: On June 3, the 10-year government bond yield of France remained unchanged, while those of other major European economies mostly declined [26]. - **Price Changes of Chinese Dollar Bonds**: Information on the daily price changes of Chinese dollar bonds as of the close on June 3 was provided, including the daily and monthly changes, credit entities, bond codes, and other details [28].

关税政策再生变数，叠加资金面宽松，债市震荡回暖 ——利率债周报（2025.5.26-2025.6.1） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 利率债周报 一、上周市场回顾 时间 2025 年 6 月 3 日 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市震荡回暖，长债收益率明显下行。上周（5 月 26 日当 周），基金等机构赎回压力、存单价格走高、美国法院"叫停" 特朗普关税等因素对债市造成利空扰动，但在资金面宽松以及 上周五美国上诉法院暂时恢复实施特朗普政府关税政策提振下， 债市整体震荡回暖，长债收益率明显下行。短端利率方面，尽 管上周央行持续净投放支撑资金跨月无忧，但债市短端利率下 行动力不足，整体小幅上行，收益率曲线趋于平坦化。 本周（6 月 2 日当周）债市料将震荡偏暖。从基本面来看，虽 然 5 月官方制造业 PMI 回升至 49.5，但仍处于收缩区间，显示 关税政策带来的外部压力犹存。从资金面来看，尽管本周逆回 购到期量大，但适逢月初资金较为充裕，资金面大概率将维持 宽松格局。同时考虑到中美贸易摩擦不确定性再度攀升，俄乌 冲突进一步升级，市场避险情绪快速升温，预 ...

Economic Indicators - In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in May was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from April[1] Factors Influencing PMI - The rise in manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by the implementation of proactive macro policies and a rebound in exports due to the easing of the US-China tariff conflict[2] - New credit and social financing in May were supported by a series of financial policy measures, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in public housing loan rates[2] - The new export orders index and import index rose to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points from the previous month[2] Challenges and Limitations - Despite the improvements, the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, influenced by high tariffs over 40% from the US and ongoing adjustments in the domestic real estate market[3] - High-frequency data indicated a decline in operating rates in most industries, except for those related to infrastructure investment, which saw an increase[3] Price Trends - The manufacturing PMI's price indices both fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points, remaining in a deep contraction zone, with PPI expected to decline further from -2.7% to around -3.1% year-on-year[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained above 51.5% for four consecutive months, indicating strong growth and resilience in this sector[4] Service Sector Insights - The service sector PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from April, supported by increased tourism during the May Day holiday[5] - The construction PMI fell to 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment activities[5] Future Outlook - The implementation of steady growth policies is expected to provide crucial support for macroeconomic operations, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and accelerating infrastructure investment[6] - The manufacturing PMI is projected to rise further to around 49.7% in June, driven by the "export rush" effect following the easing of tariffs[6]

资金面继续向宽，债市延续弱势 【内容摘要】5 月 28 日，资金面继续向宽，主要回购利率延续下行；债市延续弱势；转债市 场主要指数涨跌互见，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【财政部今年将在香港发行 680 亿元人民币国债】5 月 28 日，财政部称，经国务院批准，2025 年财政部将在香港特别行政区，分六期发行 680 亿元人民币国债。其中，前两期共计 250 亿元 人民币国债已分别于 2 月、4 月发行。现定于 6 月 4 日通过招标发行第三期 125 亿元人民币国 债，具体发行安排将在香港金融管理局债务工具中央结算系统（CMU）公布。 【4 月份全国发行地方政府债券 6933 亿元】财政部 5 月 28 日发布的《2025 年 4 月地方政府 债券发行和债务余额情况》显示，2025 年 4 月份，全国发行新增债券 2534 亿元，其中一般债 券 233 亿元、专项债券 2301 亿元。全国发行再融资债券 4399 亿元，其中一般债券 1174 亿元、 专项债券 3225 亿元。4 月合计，全国发行地方政府债券 693 ...

4 月规模以上工业企业利润增速加快；资金面继续向宽，债市整体走弱 【内容摘要】5 月 27 日，资金面继续向宽，主要回购利率均下行；受银行以及基金赎回增多 传闻扰动，债市整体走弱；转债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益 率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【4 月规模以上工业企业利润增速加快】国家统计局 5 月 27 日发布的数据显示，1-4 月全国 规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 21170.2 亿元，同比增长 1.4%，其中 4 月规模以上工业企业 利润同比增长 3.0%。国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁表示，1-4 月规模以上工业企业利润稳定 恢复，展现出我国工业强大韧性和抗冲击能力。但也要看到，国际环境变数仍多，需求不足、 价格下降等制约因素仍然存在，工业企业效益稳步恢复的基础还需继续巩固。具体来看，1-4 月规模以上工业企业利润同比增速较 1-3 月加快 0.6 个百分点。4 月规模以上工业企业利润同 比增速较 3 月份加快 0.4 个百分点。 【2025 陆家嘴论坛将于 6 月 18 日至 19 日在上海举办】5 月 27 日，据 ...

东方金诚 研究发展部 债市偏弱震荡，收益率曲线延续陡峭化 ——利率债周报（2025.5.19-2025.5.25） 作者 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 时间 2025 年 5 月 26 日 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市偏弱震荡，长债收益率进一步上行。上周（5 月 19 日） 初，LPR 如期调降，叠加大行存款利率下调，债市呈现利好兑现 后的先扬后抑走势。随后，受资金面反复，50 年特别国债发飞， 股市走弱等多空因素扰动，周三至周五债市维持震荡格局。整 体上看，上周资金面反复以及降息落地利好出尽，驱动长债收 益率延续上行。短端利率方面，上周央行通过加大净投放力度、 放量续作MLF等多途径保障税期流动性，资金面整体较为宽松， 推动短端利率小幅下行，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化。 本周（5 月 26 日当周）债市料将延续震荡格局。从资金面来 看，尽管本周适逢跨月，但央行近期呵护流动性意愿较强，资 金面仍有望保持宽松。从基本面上来看，本周处于宏观经济数 据真空期，中美贸易战暂缓虽减轻基本面下行压力，但市场对 基本面的偏弱预期仍难以扭转。整体上看，短期内债市仍将延 续窄幅震荡，预计 10 年期国债收益率将在 1.65%-1.7 ...

上交所试点公司债券续发行和资产支持证券扩募业务；资金面继续改善，债市延 续震荡 【内容摘要】5 月 21 日，央行连续 3 日公开市场净投放，资金面继续改善；债市延续震荡走 势；转债市场主要指数涨跌互见，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲 经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上行。 （三）大宗商品 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【八部门发文多措并举破解小微企业融资难】5 月 21 日，金融监管总局等 8 部门发布了《支 持小微企业融资的若干措施》，从增加融资供给、降低综合融资成本、提高融资效率、提高支 持精准性、落实监管政策、强化风险管理、完善政策保障、做好组织实施等 8 个方面，提出 23 项具体举措，做好普惠金融大文章，进一步改善小微企业、个体工商户融资状况。本次发布的 《措施》涉及金融监管总局、央行、证监会、国家发改委、工信部、财政部、税务总局、市场 监管总局 8 个部门。对此，金融监管总局指出，这是要着重发挥监管、货币、财税、产业等各 项政策合力。 【上交所试点公司债券续发，提升债券市场流动性】5 月 21 日，上交所发布通知称，试点公 司债券续发行和资产支持证券扩募业务。此举旨在规范公 ...

债市"科技板"将重点支持排名靠前、投资经验丰富的头部股权投资机构发行债 券；资金面整体偏松，债市延续震荡 【内容摘要】5 月 22 日，资金面整体偏松，主要回购利率延续下行；债市延续震荡走势；转 债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【多部门共同支持加快构建科技金融体制】5 月 22 日，多部门有关负责人在国新办新闻发布 会上介绍科技金融政策有关情况时表示，将努力健全多层次科技金融服务体系，打通科技成果 向现实生产力转化的通道。央行副行长、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新表示，要提升科技贷款的投放 强度和服务能力，建设债券市场"科技板"。证监会首席风险官、发行监管司司长严伯进在发 布会上表示，证监会大力推动科创债、绿色债等创新品种发展，重点支持高新技术、战略新兴 产业企业进行债券融资，鼓励有关机构为科技企业发行科创债提供征信支持。 【朱鹤新：债券市场"科技板"将重点支持排名靠前、投资经验丰富的头部股权投资机构发行 债券】央行副行长、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新 5 月 22 日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，债券市场 科技板将创 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 4 月财政收入端延续改善，财政支出节奏加快 —— 2024 年 5 月财政数据点评 分析师：瞿瑞 冯琳 事件：5 月 20 日，财政部公布的数据显示，2025 年 4 月，全国一般公共预算收入同 比增长 1.9%，3 月为 0.3%；4 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 5.8%，3 月为 5.7%；1-4 月全国政府性基金收入累计同比下降 6.7%，1-3 月为-11.0%；1-4 月全国政府性基金支出 累计同比增长 17.7%，1-3 月为 11.1%。 主要观点：受税收收入改善以及低基数效应驱动，4 月财政收入端延续正增长，为支 出端发力提供支撑。其中，当月一般公共预算收入同比增长 1.9%，较 3 月回升 1.6 个百分 点；土地出让金收入同比实现正增长，带动 4 月政府性基金收入同比增速显著提升至 8.1%。 从支出端来看，4 月广义财政支出同比增长 12.9%，明显高于当月广义财政收入增速以及 名义 GDP 增速，显示在外部环境急剧变化的背景下，4 月财政支出节奏加快，稳增长政策 开始全面加力。其中，当月一般公共预算支出同比增长 5.8%，增速较 3 月加快 0.1 个百分 点，同 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints On May 20, the liquidity continued to ease, with major repo rates declining. The reduction of deposit rates by large banks and the expected cut of LPR led to a correction in the bond market. The main indices of the convertible bond market closed higher, and most individual convertible bonds rose. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across different tenors showed divergent trends, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies also varied [1]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: The latest LPR was lowered on May 20, with the 1 - year LPR dropping to 3% and the 5 - year and above to 3.5%, both down 10 basis points. State - owned banks and some joint - stock banks cut deposit rates, and mortgage rates in Beijing and Shanghai were also reduced by 10 basis points. From January to April, the cumulative decline of national fiscal revenue continued to narrow, while fiscal expenditure accelerated. Additionally, multiple departments will support urban renewal, and the central bank emphasized stabilizing the economy [3][4][5]. - **International News**: The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% on May 20, the lowest since May 2023. It also discussed the possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut. The bank predicted that in the worst - case scenario of the "trade war", the unemployment rate might rise to nearly 6%, inflation would drop to around 2% by the end of 2026, and GDP would decline by more than 3% by mid - 2027 [7]. - **Commodities**: On May 20, WTI June crude oil futures fell 0.21% to $62.56 per barrel, Brent July crude oil futures fell 0.24% to $65.38 per barrel, COMEX gold futures rose 1.82% to $3292.20 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 9.97% to $3.420 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations**: On May 20, the central bank conducted 3570 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 1800 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 1770 billion yuan [10][11]. - **Funding Rates**: On May 20, the liquidity continued to ease, and major repo rates declined. DR001 dropped 2.11 basis points to 1.516%, and DR007 dropped 1.58 basis points to 1.586% [12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: - **Yield Trends**: On May 20, due to the reduction of deposit rates by large banks and the expected cut of LPR, the bond market corrected. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250004 rose 1.10 basis points to 1.6660%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250205 rose 1.45 basis points to 1.7345% [15]. - **Bond Tendering**: Information on the tendering of several bonds such as 25Guokai03 (Zeng17) was provided, including details like term, issuance scale, winning yield, and multiple over - subscriptions [17]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On May 20, two industrial bonds and one urban investment bond had transaction price deviations of over 10%. "24Chanrong02" fell over 14%, "H1Rongchuang03" rose over 25%, and "20ChangzhouBinjiangGreenBond" fell over 18% [17][18]. - **Credit Bond Events**: There were events such as Rong盛 Development planning to hold a bondholder meeting, and杉杉 Group's creditor's meeting passing relevant proposals [19]. - **Convertible Bonds**: - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On May 20, the A - share market and the convertible bond market both rose. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose 0.38%, 0.77%, and 0.77% respectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.26%, 0.23%, and 0.28% respectively [20]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Some convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revisions of conversion prices or meet early - redemption conditions [26]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **U.S. Bond Market**: On May 20, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across different tenors showed divergent trends. The 2 - year yield remained at 3.97%, while the 10 - year yield rose 2 basis points to 4.48%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds widened [22][23]. - **European Bond Market**: On May 20, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends. The yields of German, Italian, and British 10 - year government bonds rose, while those of France and Spain remained unchanged [25]. - **Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds as of May 20 were presented, showing the top 10 gainers and losers in terms of daily price changes [28].