资金面转松叠加避险情绪升温，债市延续强势 ——利率债周报（2025.3.31-2025.4.6） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 时间 2025 年 4 月 7 日 核心观点 ⚫ 受月初资金面转松以及避险情绪升温影响，上周债市整体走强。 上周（3 月 31 日当周），周一至周二，主要受季末资金面偏紧， 叠加二季度国债将放量发行影响，债市偏弱震荡。但随后因资 金面重回宽松，加之美国对等关税落地，其中对华关税幅度超 出市场预期，市场避险情绪高涨，宽货币预期升温，周三、周 四债市大幅走强。整体上看，上周债市整体偏强，长债收益率 大幅下行。短端利率方面，月初资金面延迟转松，带动短端利 率继续下行，但幅度小于长端，收益率曲线转而平坦化。 本周（4 月 7 日当周）债市料将延续强势。上周美国超预期宣 布在全球范围内加征所谓"对等关税"，冲击全球经济发展前 景。随即，中国宣布对等反制措施，这意味着在关税生效之前， 不确定性将持续发酵，市场风险偏好继续回落。从基本面来看， 超预期的对等关税将加剧出口下行压力，叠加房地产市场仍低 迷，市场对基本面偏弱的预期或加深，对债市形成一定支撑。 从货币政策来 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report On April 2, the liquidity at the beginning of the month gradually eased, with major repo rates declining. Coupled with the impending implementation of the US reciprocal tariffs, the bond market strengthened. The main indices of the convertible bond market followed suit and closed higher, with most individual convertible bonds rising. Overseas, yields on US Treasuries across various tenors generally increased, and yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies also generally rose [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism", aiming to build a high - level price governance mechanism and improve resource allocation efficiency. Over the past 10 years, price reforms have achieved remarkable results, with 97.5% of goods and services prices determined by the market [3]. - Multiple departments detailed the improvement of the social credit system, including promoting the development and utilization of credit information, expanding and enhancing the public credit reporting system, and improving the credit repair mechanism. The financial regulatory authorities will support small and micro - enterprise financing [4]. - The inter - ministerial joint meeting on reducing enterprise burdens in 2025 will focus on issues such as "four types of irregularities", overdue payments to enterprises, and high enterprise costs, and take multiple measures to reduce enterprise burdens [4][5]. - **International News** - On April 2 (Eastern Time), US President Trump signed two executive orders on "reciprocal tariffs", setting a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and imposing higher tariffs on some. The 10% benchmark tariff will take effect at 00:01 on April 5 (Eastern Time), and higher reciprocal tariffs on countries with the largest trade deficits with the US will take effect at 00:01 on April 9 (Eastern Time). Trump also announced a 25% tariff on imported cars effective April 3 [6]. - **Commodities** - On April 2, international crude oil futures prices rose, with WTI May crude futures up 0.71% to $71.71 per barrel and Brent June crude futures up 0.62% to $74.95 per barrel. COMEX gold futures for June rose 1.41% to $3190.30 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 1.62% to $4.016 per ounce [7]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open Market Operations** - On April 2, the central bank conducted 229.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender basis, with an operating rate of 1.50%. There were 455.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 225.5 billion yuan [9][10]. - **Funding Rates** - Despite the central bank's large - scale net withdrawal, the liquidity at the beginning of the month gradually eased, and major repo rates declined. DR001 dropped 9.27bp to 1.739%, and DR007 dropped 0.03bp to 1.842% [11]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On April 2, due to the easing of liquidity at the beginning of the month and the impending implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, the bond market strengthened. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250004 dropped 2.20bp to 1.7860%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250205 dropped 2.80bp to 1.8170% [14]. - **Bond Tendering**: Information on the tendering of multiple bonds such as 25贴现国债19, 25附息国债06 (re - issued), etc., including term, issuance scale, winning yield, over - subscription ratio, and marginal ratio, was provided [16]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On April 2, the transaction prices of two industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%, with "17 阳光城 MTN001" down more than 40% and "H0 宝龙 04" down more than 49% [16]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Events such as the proposed delisting of AVIC Industry Finance, the update of the rights issue funds distribution by Yuzhou Group, and the written warning to Neijiang Investment Holding by the Shanghai Stock Exchange were reported [17]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On April 2, the three major A - share indices closed higher, and the main indices of the convertible bond market also followed suit. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.20%, 0.16%, and 0.23% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 63.06 billion yuan, an increase of 2.552 billion yuan from the previous trading day [18]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: News such as the listing of Zhengfan Convertible Bond, the proposed downward revision of conversion prices by some convertible bonds, and the early redemption announcements of some convertible bonds were reported [25]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Bond Market**: On April 2, yields on US Treasuries across various tenors generally increased. The 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 4bp to 3.91%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 3bp to 4.20%. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries narrowed by 1bp to 29bp, and the yield spread between 5 - year and 30 - year US Treasuries narrowed by 2bp to 59bp. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year US Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) dropped 1bp to 2.32% [22][23][24]. - **European Bond Market**: On April 2, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased. The 10 - year German government bond yield rose 4bp to 2.72%, and the 10 - year government bond yields of France, Spain, Italy, and the UK rose 3bp, 2bp, 3bp, and 1bp respectively [26]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds as of the close on April 2 were presented, including the daily change rate, credit entity, bond code, bond balance, maturity date, yield, and monthly change rate [28].

Domestic ESG Policy Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued implementation opinions on enhancing the capital market's role in five key areas, including green finance and digital finance, on February 7, 2025[2] - Beijing's Finance Bureau announced a notification on February 27, 2025, to collect sustainable information disclosure pilot enterprises, aiming for the 2024 ESG report to be disclosed alongside financial statements[2] International ESG Developments - The Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) released a second draft for public consultation on labor-related guidelines on February 25, 2025, focusing on transparency in employee treatment and support for work-life balance[3] ESG Index Performance - The Dongfang Jincheng Credit ESG Industry Preferred Index has a cumulative return of 39.65% since January 1, 2019, with an annualized return of 5.81%[6] - The industry preferred index outperformed the benchmark CSI 800 index by 6.18%, while the industry underperforming index lagged by 55.59%[6] Monthly Performance Overview - In February 2025, the ESG industry preferred index achieved a return of 8.70%, compared to 2.66% for the CSI 800 index, with a maximum monthly increase of 4.43% on February 21[7] ESG Risk Events - A total of 22 ESG risk events were monitored in China from February 1 to February 28, 2025, with total penalties amounting to RMB 31,836,000, a decrease of 47.65% year-on-year[10] - The electronic communications industry faced the highest penalties, totaling RMB 31,800,000, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 354.29%[11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Market risk aversion remained high last week, with the COMEX gold futures price breaking through $3,100 per ounce. On March 28, the Shanghai gold futures price rose 2.24% to 722.80 yuan per gram, the COMEX gold futures price rose 2.97% to $3,118 per ounce, the gold T+D spot price rose 2.05% to 720.56 yuan per gram, and the London gold spot price rose 2.04% to $3,084.33 per ounce. Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on all imported cars and geopolitical risks increased market risk aversion, pushing up gold prices. The unexpected rebound of the US core PCE price index in February and the decline of the US stock market further boosted gold prices [1]. - This week, the gold price will fluctuate at a high level. Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy will increase both inflation and economic downturn risks in the US, keeping market risk aversion high and supporting the gold price. However, the release of the US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate in March may ease concerns about economic downturn, support the US dollar index, and suppress the gold price. Overall, the gold price will remain in a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On March 28, the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 722.80 yuan per gram, up 15.84 yuan from March 21; the COMEX gold futures price closed at $3,118 per ounce, up $89.80. The gold T+D spot price closed at 720.56 yuan per gram, up 14.48 yuan; the London gold spot price closed at $3,084.33 per ounce, up $61.54 [3]. 1.2 Gold Basis - On March 28, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - $18.40 per ounce, down $6.60 from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis fell to - 0.58 yuan per gram, down 1.52 yuan [7]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Spread - On March 28, the gold domestic - foreign price spread was 3.28 yuan per gram, slightly down from 3.68 yuan. The unexpected rebound of the US core PCE price index in February increased market risk aversion, boosting the foreign - market gold price more than the domestic - market price. The gold - oil ratio rose slightly, the gold - silver ratio fell slightly, and the gold - copper ratio rose significantly due to the PCE data and market risk preference changes [10]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In the spot market, the gold ETF position increased slightly last week. As of March 28, the SPDR gold ETF's holdings were 931.94 tons, up 1.43 tons. The trading volume of domestic gold T+D decreased by 29.25% to 151,052 kilograms. In the futures market, as of March 18, the net long position of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased significantly. The COMEX gold futures inventory increased, and the SHFE gold inventory remained at 15,675 kilograms [15]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in March unexpectedly returned to contraction at 49.8, while the service and composite PMIs were better than expected. The US consumer confidence index in March dropped to 92.9, with the expected index hitting a 12 - year low. Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars effective April 2. The US Q4 2024 GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up to 2.4%. The US core PCE in February rebounded to 2.79% year - on - year, and personal spending was lower than expected. The long - term inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in March reached a 32 - year high, and consumer confidence hit a more than two - year low [18][19][20]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - Last week, several Fed officials were cautious about inflation and interest - rate cuts. Bostic expected only one rate cut this year. Mousalem was cautious about the impact of tariff hikes on inflation. Goolsbee said that if long - term inflation expectations rise, the next rate cut may be delayed [33]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - The US dollar index fluctuated slightly downward last week. The 25% car tariff policy and the unexpected rebound of the US core PCE price index increased concerns about "stagflation" and economic downturn, causing the dollar index to fall. As of March 28, it fell 0.12% to 104.03 [35]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The yield of the US 10 - year TIPS first rose and then fell last week, with an overall slight decline. Trump's tariff announcement on March 25 pushed up inflation expectations and the yield, but the low consumer confidence index led to a significant decline. As of March 28, it fell 2bp to 1.90% [38]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - The risk in the Middle East increased, and the Israel - Hamas cease - fire was difficult to achieve. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks also faced difficulties, with both sides not wanting a hasty reconciliation and European countries opposing the lifting of sanctions on Russia, leading to a continuous rise in geopolitical risks [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 31st, at the end of the quarter, the funding situation tightened, with major repo rates rising; the bond market showed a divergent trend, with long - term bonds performing well overall and short - term bonds weakening; the main indices of the convertible bond market declined following the trend, and most convertible bond issues fell; overseas, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally declined, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed a divergent trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - In March, the manufacturing PMI reached 50.5%, a one - year high, and the non - manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index also increased. The construction industry PMI hit a new high since June 2024, indicating a more obvious sign of economic recovery [3]. - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance arrangements for government bonds in the second quarter of 2025, including the re - issuance of 30 - year ultra - long - term general government bonds on April 11th and the first issuance of special government bonds for central financial institution capital injection on April 24th [3]. - In 2025, the Ministry of Finance will issue the first batch of special government bonds worth 50 billion yuan to support the replenishment of core tier - one capital of large state - owned commercial banks, with issuance starting on April 24th [4]. - The CSRC held a meeting to improve the cross - departmental coordination mechanism for overseas listing filings, aiming to provide a more transparent, efficient, and predictable regulatory environment for enterprises [4][5]. - The NAFMII investigated cases of enterprises evading fund supervision and regulatory banks' negligence of duties, and clarified the requirements for the use and management of raised funds [5]. 3.1.2 International News - U.S. President Trump will decide on the final tariff policy on April 2nd, and multiple senior economic advisors have proposed a new reciprocal tariff plan [6]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On March 31st, international crude oil futures prices turned up, and international natural gas prices continued to rise. WTI May crude oil futures rose 3.05% to $71.48 per barrel, and Brent May crude oil futures rose 1.51% to $74.77 per barrel [7]. 3.2 Funding Situation 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On March 31st, the central bank conducted 166.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 31.7 billion yuan after 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [9]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On March 31st, at the end of the quarter, the funding situation tightened, and major repo rates rose. DR001 rose 8.43bp to 1.804%, and DR007 rose 13.79bp to 2.189% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On March 31st, interest - rate bonds showed a divergent trend. Long - term bonds first declined and then rose in yield, performing relatively well, while short - term bonds weakened due to the tightened funding situation. For example, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 240011 rose 1.00bp to 1.8075%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250205 fell 2.25bp to 1.8375% [14]. - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Information on the tendering of several agricultural development bonds, including the 182 - day 25NongfaDiscount03, 3 - year 25Nongfa03(Add11), and 5 - year 25Nongfa05(Add11), was provided [16]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On March 31st, the transaction prices of 2 industrial bonds and 2 urban investment bonds deviated by more than 10%. For example, "H0 Yangcheng 02" rose more than 160%, and "18 Shehong Bond 01" fell more than 33% [16][17]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies announced relevant credit events, such as Shanghai Shimao Co., Ltd. reporting overdue bond principal and interest, and Fuli Real Estate having the winding - up petition dismissed [20]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On March 31st, the three major A - share indices fell, and the main indices of the convertible bond market also declined. The convertible bond market turnover was 62.175 billion yuan, an increase of 4.552 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most convertible bond issues fell [19][21]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Dinglong Convertible Bond will start online subscription on April 2nd [22]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On March 31st, the yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond remained unchanged at 3.89%, while yields of other maturities generally declined. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell 4bp to 4.23% [23]. - **European Bond Market**: On March 31st, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed a divergent trend. For example, the yield of the German 10 - year government bond remained unchanged at 2.73%, while the yield of the Italian 10 - year government bond rose 1bp [26].

Revenue Analysis - In January-February 2025, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, a slowdown of 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous year's total[2] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9%, widening the decline by 0.5 percentage points from the previous year, significantly lower than the 2.7% growth in December 2024[2] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11.0%, but the growth rate was lower than both the previous year and December 2024[4] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Individual income tax revenue rose by 26.7%, a significant increase from 9.1% in December 2024, while corporate income tax dropped by 10.4%, down from a 95.8% increase in December 2024[3] - Consumption tax revenue grew by 0.3%, slowing by 6.5 percentage points compared to December 2024, primarily due to a decline in automobile retail sales[4] - Land value-added tax and deed tax revenues fell by 21.7% and 22.1% respectively, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market[4] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure increased by 3.4% year-on-year, completing 15.2% of the annual budget, higher than the five-year average of 14.4%[5] - Interest payments on debt saw the fastest growth at 19.7%, reflecting increased pressure on local government debt[7] - Infrastructure spending growth slowed due to a high base from the previous year, but the two-year compound growth rate remained at 5.0%[7] Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue fell by 10.7%, significantly lower than the 4.9% growth in December 2024, primarily due to a 15.7% decline in land transfer income[8] - Government fund expenditure grew by 1.2%, below the 12.6% increase in December 2024, impacted by a 19.2% drop in spending related to land transfer income[8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Last week, the central bank's net injection supported the tax - period liquidity, leading to a recovery in the bond market. The long - term bond yields first declined and then rose, with an overall downward trend. Short - term interest rates also continued to fall, and the yield curve continued to steepen. [1] - This week, the bond market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The short - term improvement in economic data has limited impact on the bond market, and there is uncertainty about the monetary policy. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.9%. [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **Secondary Market**: The bond market recovered last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.38% in total. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 3.32bp, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 3.00bp compared with the previous Friday. The term spread slightly narrowed. [2] - **Primary Market**: A total of 92 interest - rate bonds were issued last week, an increase of 31 compared with the previous week. The issuance volume was 822.8 billion yuan, an increase of 316.7 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 691.9 billion yuan, an increase of 486.8 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local bonds all increased compared with the previous week. The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. [10] 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - The central bank adjusted the MLF operation from single - price winning to multi - price winning. This change will further dilute the policy - rate nature of the MLF winning rate and highlight the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase rate as the main policy rate. The increased MLF roll - over in March may be related to factors such as the outflow of non - bank funds and the suspension of Treasury bond purchases, and may also imply a delay in reserve requirement ratio cuts. [13] 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - On the production side, the blast furnace operating rate and daily average pig iron output continued to rise, the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate slightly declined, and the semi - steel tire operating rate was basically flat compared with the previous week. [14] - On the demand side, the BDI index slightly declined, the export container freight index CCFI continued to fall, and the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to rise. [14] - In terms of prices, the pork price continued to rise slightly, and most commodity prices increased. The prices of rebar and crude oil both rose, while the copper price slightly declined. [14] 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 300.1 billion yuan last week. [25] - R007 and DR007 both increased significantly, the issuance rate of joint - stock bank inter - bank certificates of deposit continued to decline significantly, the discount rates of national and stock - owned banks for various terms all increased, the trading volume of pledged repurchase significantly decreased, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio significantly increased. [26]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In March 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from February, indicating continued expansion for two consecutive months[1] - The new orders index increased by 0.7 percentage points to 51.8%, highlighting domestic demand as a key driver for the PMI rise[2] - The new export orders index unexpectedly rose by 0.4 percentage points to 49.0%, above the historical average of 48.1% over the past decade, suggesting resilience in external demand[2] Sector Performance - The small enterprises PMI rebounded significantly by 3.3 percentage points to 49.6%, the highest level in nearly 11 months, reflecting the effectiveness of recent demand-boosting policies[3] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 52.0% and 52.3%, respectively, both showing increases of 1.2 and 1.4 percentage points, driven by strong growth in new energy vehicles and equipment upgrades[3] - The consumer goods manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, supported by policies promoting consumption upgrades[3] Price Indices and Economic Outlook - The main raw materials purchase price index fell by 1 percentage point to 49.8%, influenced by declining international prices for crude oil and iron ore[4] - The producer price index (PPI) is expected to maintain a year-on-year decline of around -2.2%, primarily due to ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector and weak consumer demand[4] - The overall manufacturing PMI reflects seasonal recovery and the impact of growth-stabilizing policies, with Q1 GDP growth projected between 5.0% and 5.2%[5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On March 26, the overall capital market was balanced, the bond market strengthened significantly, the main indices of the convertible bond market closed up collectively, and most convertible bond individual securities rose. Overseas, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: On March 26, the central department budgets for 2025 were publicly released. The Ministry of Finance emphasized the importance of budget disclosure. The State Council forwarded measures to support the cultivation and construction of international consumption - center cities. The results of the continuous reduction of non - performing loans in the banking industry are emerging, with different trends in different regions. A new wave of "land king tides" has emerged, with high - quality and high - price land concentrated in first - tier and strong second - tier cities [4][5][6]. - **International News**: On March 26, US President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars, effective April 2. Two Federal Reserve voting members disagreed with Powell, believing that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be temporary [7][8]. - **Commodities**: On March 26, international crude oil futures prices turned up, while international natural gas prices continued to fall. WTI May crude oil futures rose 0.94% to $69.65 per barrel, Brent May crude oil futures rose 1.05% to $73.79 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.02% to $3025.40 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 0.55% to $3.846 per ounce [9]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations**: On March 26, the central bank conducted 455.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.50%. With 295.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 159.5 billion yuan [11]. - **Funding Rates**: On March 26, the capital market was generally balanced. DR001 rose 0.30bp to 1.784%, and DR007 rose 7.57bp to 1.982% [12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds**: - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On March 26, large - scale banks increased their allocation efforts, and the bond market strengthened significantly. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 240011 fell 2.85bp to 1.7775%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250205 fell 3.50bp to 1.8175% [15]. - **Bond Tendering**: The 25 Agricultural Development Bond 11 (Increment 3) with a term of 1.0932 years had an issue size of 11 billion yuan, a winning bid yield of 1.5489%, a full - field multiple of 2.70, and a marginal multiple of 1.107. The 25 Agricultural Development Bond 10 (Increment 10) with a 10 - year term had an issue size of 13 billion yuan, a winning bid yield of 1.9558%, a full - field multiple of 3.72, and a marginal multiple of 1.3588 [17]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On March 26, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0 Zhongjun 02", deviated by more than 10%, rising more than 29% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Rongsheng Development plans to formulate a debt - for - equity plan. Zhongcheng Asia - Pacific revoked the long - term credit rating of Zhoushan Putuo Urban Construction [18]. - **Convertible Bonds**: - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On March 26, the three major A - share indices closed down, while the main indices of the convertible bond market closed up. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.36%, 0.19%, and 0.62% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 59.624 billion yuan, a decrease of 697 million yuan from the previous trading day [19]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On March 28, Yonggui Convertible Bond will be listed, and Taineng Convertible Bond will start online subscription. Multiple convertible bonds announced changes in conversion prices, early redemptions, etc. [24]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **US Bond Market**: On March 26, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally increased. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield rose 2bp to 3.98%, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose 4bp to 4.35%. The 2/10 - year US Treasury bond yield spread widened by 2bp to 37bp, and the 5/30 - year US Treasury bond yield spread widened by 3bp to 61bp [22][23]. - **European Bond Market**: On March 26, the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends. Germany's 10 - year government bond yield remained unchanged at 2.79%, France's rose 1bp, while Italy's and Spain's remained unchanged, and the UK's fell 3bp [26]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - funded US - dollar Bonds**: As of the close on March 26, the prices of Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds showed different changes, with some rising and some falling [28].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market risk aversion and interest - rate cut expectations drove gold prices to new highs last week. On March 21, the Shanghai gold futures price rose 1.73% to 706.96 yuan/gram, the COMEX gold futures price rose 1.16% to 3028.20 dollars/ounce, the gold T + D spot price rose 1.92% to 706.08 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price rose 1.31% to 3022.79 dollars/ounce. The weakening of the US dollar index and US stocks, the dovish signal from the Fed's March meeting, and geopolitical uncertainties supported the gold price. However, the rebound of the US dollar on Friday and profit - taking by some bulls led to a decline in the gold price. Overall, the gold price rose significantly last week [1]. - This week (the week of March 24), the gold price may face short - term correction pressure. The better - than - expected US existing home sales data, the rebound of the US dollar index, the possible rebound of the US stocks, and the easing of tariff concerns may restrict the inflow of funds into the gold market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **Gold Spot and Futures Price Movements**: On March 21, the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 706.96 yuan/gram, up 12.00 yuan/gram from March 14; the COMEX gold futures price closed at 3028.20 dollars/ounce, up 34.60 dollars/ounce. The gold T + D spot price closed at 706.08 yuan/gram, up 13.28 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price closed at 3022.79 dollars/ounce, up 39.00 dollars/ounce [3]. - **Gold Basis**: On March 21, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 11.80 dollars/ounce, up 0.15 dollars/ounce from the previous week; the Shanghai gold basis turned positive to 0.94 yuan/gram, up 1.44 yuan/gram [6]. - **Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Spread**: On March 21, the gold domestic - foreign price spread was 3.68 yuan/gram, up from - 0.20 yuan/gram the previous week. The gold - oil ratio remained flat, the gold - silver ratio increased significantly, and the gold - copper ratio decreased significantly [9]. - **Position Analysis**: In the spot market, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly last week. As of March 21, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 930.51 tons, up 24.10 tons. The trading volume of domestic gold T + D increased by 14.43% to 213,494 kilograms. In the futures market, as of March 18, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions increased significantly, and the short positions remained flat, leading to an increase in net long positions. The COMEX gold futures inventory and the SHFE gold inventory increased [15]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Policy News**: Germany's federal parliament passed a 500 - billion - euro special fund for infrastructure and climate protection, and the defense budget will receive an additional 100 billion euros. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4.5%, and the call for an interest - rate cut weakened [17][19]. - **Important Economic Data**: The US initial jobless claims increased slightly, the JOLTS job openings decreased, the CPI and PPI decreased significantly, the ISM services PMI increased while the manufacturing PMI decreased, the unemployment rate increased, the non - farm payrolls increased slightly, the Michigan consumer confidence index decreased significantly, the durable goods orders increased significantly, and the core PCE decreased [21][23][26]. - **Fed Policy Tracking**: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% and will slow down the balance - sheet reduction from April. The updated dot - plot shows two interest - rate cuts in 2025, but the number of people who expect no rate cut this year increased from one to four [31]. - **US Dollar Index Movement**: The US dollar index first declined and then rose last week, up 0.40% to 104.15 as of March 21 [33]. - **US TIPS Yield Movement**: The US 10 - year TIPS yield decreased by 9bp to 1.92% last week [36]. - **International Important Event Tracking**: Tensions in the Middle East increased as Israel launched air strikes on Gaza and Lebanon. The US and Russia will hold talks on the Russia - Ukraine issue, and the Trump administration hopes to reach a cease - fire agreement by April 20 [39].