Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to October[1] - The main drivers for the CPI increase were a significant rise in vegetable prices due to rainy weather and increased holiday demand, leading to a narrowing of the food price decline to -2.9%[2] - The core CPI rose to 1.2% year-on-year, primarily driven by a 2.5% increase in travel prices, reflecting a strong demand for services during the extended holiday[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI saw its first month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Key contributors to the PPI increase included improved supply-demand dynamics in industries like coal and cement, with coal mining PPI rising by 1.6%[5] - The rise in international prices for non-ferrous metals also supported the domestic PPI, with a 5.3% increase in the PPI for non-ferrous metal mining[6]

Export Performance - In October 2025, China's export value decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth since February and a slowdown of 9.4 percentage points compared to September[2][3] - Exports to the United States fell by 25.2%, contributing to a 3.8 percentage point decline in overall export growth[4] - The average year-on-year export growth for September and October combined is 3.5% when excluding the high base effect and working day adjustments[3] Import Trends - October 2025 saw a 1.0% year-on-year increase in imports, but the growth rate slowed by 6.4 percentage points from September[8] - Imports from the United States dropped by 22.8%, with the decline widening by 6.7 percentage points compared to the previous month[8] - Key imports such as crude oil and soybeans showed improved growth rates, with crude oil imports down by only 0.3% and soybean imports up by 11.4%[9] Market Dynamics - The high base effect from last year, combined with fewer working days due to the Mid-Autumn Festival, significantly impacted October's export figures[3][4] - Despite external pressures, China's export resilience is attributed to diversification efforts and strong growth in sectors like AI, chips, and automobiles, with chip exports rising by 26.9% and automobile exports by 34.0%[5] - The ongoing high tariffs from the U.S. are expected to continue affecting China's exports, particularly to the EU, ASEAN, and Belt and Road economies, which are projected to see declining growth rates[6] Future Outlook - November's export growth is anticipated to rebound to around 2.0%, but the overall export momentum is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter compared to the 6.1% growth in the first three quarters[6] - The Chinese government is likely to implement policies to support export enterprises, including enhancing domestic sales channels and providing financial support to struggling companies[7] - The impact of domestic policies aimed at boosting internal demand is expected to influence import growth positively in the coming months[10]

Report Summary Core View - The central bank will use repurchase agreements and MLF to inject medium - term liquidity into the market, and the scale of medium - term liquidity increase may decline due to the expected RRR cut in the fourth quarter. The resumption of treasury bond trading in October releases a signal of stabilizing growth and does not affect the RRR cut expectation [3][4] Key Points 1. Open Market Operations - On November 5, 2025, the central bank will conduct 700 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright repurchase operations, equivalent to a 300 - billion - yuan roll - over of 3 - month outright repurchase in November. It is expected to conduct a 6 - month outright repurchase operation with a likely increase in volume, resulting in a continuous 6 - month injection of medium - term liquidity [1] - There will be 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing in November, and the central bank may conduct an equivalent or slightly increased roll - over [3] 2. Reasons for Liquidity Injection - The issuance of 500 billion yuan of local government bonds by the end of the year, the growth of supporting loans after the 500 - billion - yuan policy - based financial instruments are put into use, and the increase in the maturity volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit in November will lead to a tightening of the capital market. The central bank injects medium - term liquidity to maintain a stable and abundant capital supply [2] 3. Treasury Bond Trading - In October, the central bank resumed treasury bond trading, injecting 20 billion yuan of long - term liquidity into the banking system. The resumption is due to the rise of the 10 - year treasury bond yield to around 1.8% and the widening of the term spread, and it also helps to stabilize the macro - economy [4] 4. Policy Outlook - A new round of growth - stabilizing policies may be introduced in the fourth quarter, with fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, and efforts to stabilize the real estate market. The central bank will use various price - based and quantity - based policy tools to boost growth, and there is ample room for monetary policy due to low inflation [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 3, the liquidity at the beginning of the month was ample; the bond market fluctuated within a narrow range, with long - term bonds performing slightly better; the main indices of the convertible bond market rose collectively, and most convertible bond issues increased; the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across all maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally increased [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors revised the "Administrative Measures for Registration Experts of Non - Financial Enterprise Debt Financing Instruments" to optimize the management mechanism and improve work efficiency, with investor representatives accounting for no less than 30% [3] - The Debt Management Department of the Ministry of Finance was listed on the official website of the Ministry of Finance, with responsibilities including formulating and implementing government domestic debt management systems and policies, and preventing and resolving implicit debt risks [4] - In response to the U.S. Treasury Secretary's statement about potential tariff hikes if China continues to restrict rare - earth exports, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways to solve problems [5] - The "upgraded" China - EU export control dialogue and consultation was held in Brussels, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [6] - The central bank renewed a bilateral local currency swap agreement with the Bank of Korea, with a scale of 400 billion yuan [6] - Hong Kong announced major policy initiatives to promote the development of the digital asset ecosystem, including relaxing regulatory restrictions on virtual asset trading platforms and promoting the "one - stop" clearing and settlement of tokenized money funds [7] 3.1.2 International News - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7, indicating an eight - month consecutive contraction due to production decline and weak demand, but there were signs of a potential rebound in future orders [8] 3.1.3 Commodities - On November 3, international crude oil and natural gas futures prices continued to rise, with WTI 12 - month crude oil futures up 0.11%, Brent 1 - month crude oil futures up 0.19%, COMEX 12 - month gold futures up 0.44%, and NYMEX natural gas prices up 12.72% [9] 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On November 3, the central bank conducted 78.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with a net withdrawal of 25.9 billion yuan as 337.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day [11] 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On November 3, the liquidity at the beginning of the month was ample. DR001 decreased by 0.57bp to 1.313%, and DR007 decreased by 3.64bp to 1.419%. Other major funding rates also showed downward trends [12][13] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On November 3, the bond market fluctuated within a narrow range, with long - term bonds performing slightly better. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250016 decreased by 0.25bp to 1.7900%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active issue 250215 decreased by 0.35bp to 1.8600% [15] - **Bond Tendering Results**: Multiple bonds were tendered on November 3, including agricultural development and China Development Bank bonds, with details such as issue scale, winning yield, and multiples provided [17] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: One industrial bond ("H0 Baolong 04") rose by over 25%, and one urban investment bond ("20 Jinzhou New City Bond") fell by over 31% [17][18] - **Credit Bond Events**: Several companies announced credit - related events, such as overdue debts, risk warnings, and listing as dishonest被执行人 [21] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On November 3, the three major A - share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 0.55%, 0.19%, and 0.29% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index up 0.19%, 0.15%, and 0.25% respectively [20] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Taiping Convertible Bond and Weining Convertible Bond announced that they were about to trigger the conditions for downward revision of the conversion price [22] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On November 3, the yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond remained unchanged at 3.60%, while the yields of other maturities generally increased. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds and between 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasury bonds both widened by 2bp [23][24] - **European Bond Market**: The yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally increased on November 3, with Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK seeing increases of 2bp, 2bp, 3bp, 3bp, and 3bp respectively [26][27] - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on November 3 were provided, including bonds issued by companies such as New World Development and Lenovo Group [29]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, aligning with market expectations[9] - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2%, citing stronger-than-expected economic resilience in the Eurozone, with Q3 GDP growth of 0.2%[11] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its interest rate unchanged, with two members voting against this decision, indicating potential future rate hikes[12] Economic Data - Eurozone's Q3 GDP growth of 0.2% exceeded the expected 0.1%, with France showing a 0.5% increase, the highest in three years, while Germany's growth stagnated[26] - In the U.S., September fiscal revenue was $543.7 billion, a 3.2% year-on-year increase, while expenditures were $345.7 billion, down 22.6% year-on-year, resulting in a fiscal surplus of $198 billion[17] - Japan's industrial and commercial sales showed improvement, with consumer confidence rising for three consecutive months[28] Market Trends - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.71% last week, with a year-to-date increase of 16.30%[5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 9 basis points to 4.11%, reflecting market adjustments following the Fed's rate cut[5] - The WTI crude oil price decreased by 1.01% to $61, with a year-to-date decline of 14.78%[5]

10 月我国制造业 PMI 为 49.0%；资金面持续宽松，债市延续暖势 【内容摘要】10 月 31 日，资金面持续宽松；债市延续暖势；转债市场主要指数集体收涨，转 债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【习近平出席亚太经合组织第三十二次领导人非正式会议并发表重要讲话】当地时间 10 月 31 日上午，亚太经合组织第三十二次领导人非正式会议第一阶段会议在韩国庆州和白会议中心 举行。国家主席习近平出席会议并发表题为《共建普惠包容的开放型亚太经济》的重要讲话。 习近平在讲话中指出，亚太经合组织成立 30 多年来，引领亚太地区走在全球开放发展前列， 助力亚太成为全球经济最具活力的地区。当前，世界百年变局加速演进，亚太地区发展面临的 不稳定不确定因素增多。越是风高浪急，越要同舟共济。各方要坚守亚太经合组织促进经济增 长、增进人民福祉的初衷，坚持在开放发展中分享机遇、实现共赢，推进普惠包容的经济全球 化，构建亚太共同体。 【李强主持召开国常会，研究深化重点领域改革扩大制度型开放工作】国务院总理李强 10 月 31 日主持召开国务院常务会议 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market strengthened overall, with long - term bond yields dropping significantly. The announcement of resuming treasury bond trading operations by the central bank governor, large - scale purchases of medium - and short - term bonds by major banks, the successful China - US summit, a loose capital situation, and lower - than - expected October manufacturing PMI data all boosted market sentiment [3]. - This week, the bond market is expected to continue a relatively strong and volatile trend. The weak October manufacturing PMI further confirms the weak fundamentals, and the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading in the open market strengthens the market's expectation of monetary easing. The central bank's continuous use of various tools to inject liquidity is expected to keep the capital market loose. However, the stock - bond seesaw effect still exists, and the new regulations on the redemption fees of public bond funds have not been implemented, which will still cause some disturbances to the bond market. It is expected that the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds will range from 1.75% to 1.85% [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market rebounded, and long - term bond yields dropped significantly. The 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.62% in the whole week. On Friday, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased by 5.32bp compared with the previous Friday, and the yield of 1 - year treasury bonds decreased by 8.90bp, with the term spread widening significantly [4]. - On October 27th, the bond market was weak in the morning due to tightened capital and improved Sino - US trade relations. But after the central bank governor announced the resumption of treasury bond trading operations, the market sentiment turned positive. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropped 0.63bp, with the 10 - year futures main contract rising 0.15% [4]. - On October 28th, after the news of the central bank's restart of bond - buying was confirmed, the market sentiment cooled slightly, but the bond market generally continued to be warm. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropping 2.44bp and the 10 - year futures main contract rising 0.25% [4]. - On October 29th, affected by the rumor that major banks were buying new bonds issued this year with a maturity of less than 3 years, the market speculated that there was still room for loose monetary policy. The medium - and short - term bonds strengthened significantly, while long - term bonds were weaker. The yields of most major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield rising slightly by 0.29bp and the 10 - year futures main contract rising 0.13% [4]. - On October 30th, boosted by the expectation of central bank bond - buying and loose capital, the bond market fluctuated and trended upwards. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropping 1.10bp and the 10 - year futures main contract rising 0.05% [4]. - On October 31st, due to continuous loose capital and lower - than - expected October manufacturing PMI data, the market sentiment was high, and the bond market continued to be warm. The yields of most major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropping 1.44bp, and the performance of the 10 - year futures main contract was mixed, rising 0.04% [4]. 3.1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 110 interest - rate bonds were issued, 3 more than the previous week, with a total issuance volume of 412.7 billion yuan, 663.6 billion yuan less than the previous week, and a net financing amount of 320 billion yuan, 235.3 billion yuan more than the previous week. There was no issuance or repayment of treasury bonds last week. The issuance volume and net financing amount of local bonds and policy - financial bonds both increased compared with the previous week [12]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was acceptable. There was no treasury bond issuance. A total of 22 policy - financial bonds were issued, with an average subscription multiple of 3.78 times, and 88 local bonds were issued, with an average subscription multiple of 20.17 times [13]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - In October, the manufacturing PMI index was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from September, weaker than market expectations. This was mainly due to the simultaneous decline in manufacturing supply and demand under the combined influence of internal and external factors. The service industry PMI index in October was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly because the one - day increase in the long holiday in October drove up residents' travel demand. Looking forward, the manufacturing PMI index in November will still be in the contraction range, but it will rise slightly due to seasonality and policy support [15]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - Last week, most high - frequency production - end data declined, including blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, petroleum asphalt plant operating rate, and daily hot - metal output. From the demand side, the BDI index continued to decline, while the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) continued to rise. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline slightly. In terms of prices, pork prices fluctuated slightly upwards, and most commodity prices rose, with steel and copper prices increasing, while crude - oil prices declined [16]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's net injection of funds in the open market was 900.8 billion yuan [26]. - Last week, both R007 and DR007 increased, the issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks decreased significantly, the direct - discount rates of national and joint - stock banks for various maturities continued to decline, the trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased significantly, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank market fluctuated slightly downwards [27][29][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, the convertible bond market followed the equity market to fluctuate upward and then pulled back. The CSI Convertible Bond Index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.67 pcts. High - priced convertible bonds continued to be dominant, and low - price and low - premium convertible bonds led the Wind sub - indices. In the short term, the "15th Five - Year Plan" focusing on carbon peaking and the supply - side reform of the new energy industry is expected to support relevant underlying stocks and convertible bonds. However, in the fourth quarter, due to economic data pressure and profit - taking needs, the probability of high - to - low and structural switching in the market increases, and defensive convertible bonds with previous underperformance may be dominant in stages, and the cost - performance of low - price and low - premium convertible bonds has increased. Attention should also be paid to the possible impact on the demand side of convertible bonds with the further adjustment of fund fees and the launch of stock - bond balanced funds [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Tracking - On October 28, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the "Several Opinions on Strengthening the Protection of Small and Medium - sized Investors in the Capital Market", focusing on key issues of small and medium - sized investors and proposing 23 specific measures in eight aspects [3]. - On October 31, the CSRC issued the "Guidelines for the Performance Comparison Benchmark of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds (Exposure Draft)", aiming to standardize the selection and use of performance comparison benchmarks of public funds through six chapters and 21 articles, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors [3]. Secondary Market - **Equity Market**: Last week, major domestic equity market indices fluctuated strongly. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, but its stance on the December interest - rate cut was hawkish. Domestically, the China - US economic and trade negotiations advanced, and the October manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, 0.8 percentage points lower than that in September, which was lower than market expectations and suppressed market risk appetite. The equity market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling [6]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Last week, major convertible bond market indices followed the equity market to rise. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.79%, 0.55%, and 1.14% respectively. Convertible bond ETFs had a net redemption of 11.92 billion yuan. Structurally, high - priced convertible bonds continued to be strong, and low - price and low - premium convertible bonds performed well. In terms of industries, most convertible bonds in various industries rose, with steel industry convertible bonds leading the gain. Looking forward, in the short term, relevant policies may support new energy - related convertible bonds, but in the fourth quarter, the probability of market switching increases, and the cost - performance of low - price and low - premium convertible bonds has increased [2][8][11]. Primary Market - **Issuance and Listing**: Last week, there was no new convertible bond issuance. Fueneng Convertible Bond and Jin25 Convertible Bond were listed, while several convertible bonds were redeemed in advance or expired and delisted. As of October 31, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 581.274 billion yuan, a decrease of 152.619 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year and an increase of 3.14 billion yuan compared with the previous week [35]. - **Conversion and Approval**: Seven convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5% last week. Shuangle Co., Ltd.'s convertible bond issuance was approved by the exchange, and Ruikeda's convertible bond issuance was approved by the CSRC. As of last Friday, 5 convertible bonds were approved by the CSRC to be issued, with a total of 4.15 billion yuan, and 6 convertible bonds passed the issuance review committee, with a total of 3.381 billion yuan [35][40]. - **Clause Tracking**: Last week, no convertible bond announced a downward revision of the conversion price, and 1 convertible bond announced early redemption. Several convertible bonds proposed or were about to trigger a downward revision of the conversion price, and some were expected to trigger early redemption conditions [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 28, the central bank increased net open - market injections, improving the capital situation to an overall balanced and stable state. After the positive news of the central bank's bond - buying restart was realized, the bond market was generally weak with a slight upward movement in the 10 - year treasury bond yield. The convertible bond market declined following the stock market, and most individual bonds fell. Overseas, yields of US Treasury bonds across various tenors generally decreased, while the 10 - year treasury bond yields of major European economies remained unchanged from the previous day [1] 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The full text of the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" was released on October 28, setting major goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, such as maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, promoting the development of strategic emerging industries, and achieving breakthroughs in key core technologies in key areas. It also proposed measures for fiscal and monetary policies [3] - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal emphasizes the role of active fiscal policies, enhancing fiscal sustainability, and promoting a more domestic - demand - led and consumption - driven economic development model [5] - China and ASEAN signed the 3.0 - version upgrade protocol of the free - trade area on October 28, expanding cooperation in emerging fields and promoting regional trade facilitation [7] 3.1.2 International News - ADP will start releasing weekly preliminary estimates of private - sector employment data on a weekly basis, providing a four - week moving average of private - sector employment changes. The existing monthly report will still be released as usual [8][9] 3.1.3 Commodities - On October 28, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, with WTI December crude futures down 1.89% and Brent December crude futures down 1.86%. COMEX gold futures fell 1.25%, and NYMEX natural gas prices dropped 4.30% [10] 3.2 Capital Situation 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations - On October 28, the central bank conducted 475.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 159.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net injection was 315.8 billion yuan [12] 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates - On October 28, the central bank's increased net open - market injections improved the capital situation. DR001 rose 1.58bp to 1.469%, and DR007 fell 2.38bp to 1.558% [13] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - After the news of the central bank's bond - buying restart was confirmed on October 28, the bond market was generally weak. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 1.80bp to 1.813%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 rose 1.75bp to 1.8805% [16] - There were several bond - issuing tenders on October 28, with details such as issuance scale, winning bid yields, and multiples provided [18] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On October 28, the trading price of "H0 Baolong 04" deviated by over 10%, rising over 37% [18] - Credit - related events include the suspension of trading of 6 corporate bonds of Rongxin Group, the ineffective convening of the "20 Xingfu 01" bondholder meeting of Huaxia Holdings, and the disclosure of overdue debts of Sunshine City [19] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On October 28, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index down 0.22%, 0.44%, and 0.15% respectively. The convertible bond market also declined, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shanghai Convertible Bond, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indices down 0.24%, 0.30%, and 0.16% respectively [20] - There were rating - related events such as the withdrawal of Jiangsu Zhongxing's "BBB+" international long - term issuer rating and financial - strength rating events of other companies. Some companies also announced losses, overdue reports, and other events [22] - Upcoming events include the listing of Funeng Convertible Bonds, the possible trigger of the conversion - price downward - adjustment condition for Juxing Convertible Bonds, and announcements regarding early redemption of some convertible bonds [28] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - On October 28, except for the 3 - year US Treasury bond yield remaining unchanged, yields of US Treasury bonds across other tenors generally decreased. The 2 - year yield dropped 1bp to 3.47%, and the 10 - year yield dropped 2bp to 3.99% [24] - The 10 - year treasury bond yields of major European economies remained unchanged on October 28 [27] - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds as of the close on October 28 are presented, including the top 10 daily gainers and losers [30]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In October 2025, China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[2] - The production index dropped significantly by 2.2 percentage points to 49.7%, marking its first entry into the contraction zone since April[3] - The new orders index declined by 0.9 percentage points to 48.8%, reflecting weakened market demand due to seasonal factors and reduced policy impact[4] Economic Policy and Investment - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools was fully deployed by the end of October, aimed at accelerating infrastructure investment[5] - An additional 500 billion yuan in local government debt was arranged to address existing debt and expand effective investment, indicating a strong focus on stabilizing growth[6] - The anticipated outcomes of the new round of Sino-U.S. trade talks are expected to bolster market confidence, despite ongoing external pressures[6] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 50.5%, despite a decline of 1.1 percentage points, supported by strong market demand and policy backing[7] - The service sector PMI rose slightly to 50.2%, driven by increased tourism during the extended holiday period, although overall consumer spending remains weak[8] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, continuing a contraction trend due to cooling real estate markets, although civil engineering activity showed signs of improvement[9] Future Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is projected to rebound to approximately 49.4% in November, influenced by seasonal factors and the impact of recent economic policies[10] - The overall economic climate is expected to depend heavily on the effectiveness and timing of growth-stabilizing policies leading up to the end of the year[10]